Blaming Pilots

[mulro767]

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid are the two most pathetic pilots in the world. Why? Because they're dead and they can't defend themselves.

They are terrorists, suicidal maniacs, criminals, magicians, and even aliens in the minds of the news media's experts in the industry. These experts of private pilots, retired airline pilots, and Air Force Colonels are all coming up with evidence condemning these two pilots without anything solid. They are getting paid to sit in that CNN seat and feed you this "expert" information. There is no solid evidence, only clues.

Some of the most important clues in this mystery that I see include:

1) The sudden removal of power to several key communications systems and radar transmitters.

2) The sudden and unexplained turn away off of the programmed northerly course towards the west.

3) The lithium batteries that were onboard as cargo.

4) The captains homemade Boeing 777 simulator which has been confiscated by the Malaysian Police.

I have never flown the Boeing 777. Only the 767 and 757. I've had several friends ask me what I think happened. While I hate speculation without any solid evidence that a cockpit voice recorder or flight data recorder can provide, it may not be possible to retrieve that information now so only the experts are left to criminalize these two pilots. I am not defending these two dead pilots, only providing a "guess" based on real clues as to what really happened. I may be wrong.

First, the sudden removal of power to the transponder and ACARS systems. For those that don't know, the transponder simply identifies the aircraft to ATC radar, and ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) provides communication with the company including engine data to the company and weather data from. When you're out of radar contact, ACARS becomes the primary position reporting for the flight. It can be satellite provided.

There is so much emphasis on how one of these pilots could shut down each of these systems. One theory included him climbing down a latter under a compartment in the first class galley. Then using extensive aircraft systems knowledge, he removes power from the system rendering it useless. Most pilots have never seen this compartment. Mechanics know it well.

My speculation, that I'm entitled to use as well, is that a fire can burn through the wires that provide power to those systems.

Second, the sudden and unexplained turn off the programmed course towards the West. CNN said that someone had to have extensive training to reprogram the flight management computer that far off course and it had to be malicious and terrorist related. I think they did exactly what they were trained to do.

At my airline the standard practice while on a North Atlantic track or Pacific jet route is to preposition the heading selector of the flight guidance control panel (autopilot) to a heading perpendicular to the flight path to the shortest turn towards a divert airport. If an engine were to quit, a rapid decompression, or let's say something worse like a fire where to happen, this would be a good practice. Rather than trying to type in the flight management computer (FMC) the information needed to get the airplane to turn, you simply press the heading select button that was positioned towards the West. In a GPS world where every aircraft is stacked up on routes and airways and separated by only 1000' vertical separation and just a few feet horizontal, you can't just start descending without first getting off the programmed course. These pilots may have turned off course (towards the West) so they can descend and initially turn towards Kuala Lumpur. They just didn't get the chance to program the rest of the way home. The fire was too intense.

Third, I have mentioned fire twice now. Lithium batteries have been on the radar of pilots unions for several years now. We don't just bitch about pay and benefits. Most of our battles are towards safety. The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) has been fighting hard to regulate the safe handling of lithium batteries as cargo onboard US air carriers since the 2010 crash of a UPS Boeing 747 transporting lithium batteries. But only two people (pilots) died on that flight. So there was no need for regulation.

If a fire were to start in a forward cargo compartment and spread to the avionics compartment, the pilots would have one hell of a battle on their hands. As a student pilot I heard the words "Aviate, Navigate, Communicate" during an emergency. Those words apply to a Cessna pilot or a Boeing pilot. With an emergency, you aviate first. Fly the airplane and fight the fire! You gather information and run the appropriate checklist. Next navigate. Divert! Kuala Lumper is closest. Press the heading select button and at least start the turn towards that direction. Communicate. It appears they could have run out of time and the radios or pilots were not capable of transmitting.

But how could a Boeing 777 that has a fire onboard continue to fly for that much time? The airplane is one of the strongest and most redundant airplanes ever built. Once established on a heading and altitude, each wing mounted engine is producing thrust from each wing main fuel tank. A fire may destroy the navigation, communication and manipulation that the cockpit can provide. But the engines run on fuel. Which they have.

And finally, the captain had a homemade Boeing 777 simulator in his home. What a nerd! No seriously, he is an aviation nerd! The guy probably spent a good amount of his well earned money that he made from flying airplanes.....on flying airplanes! If he was an American he may have been able to afford to purchase his own airplane. He'd probably attend Oshkosh every year! But in many Asian and other foreign countries airplane ownership is illegal. His passion for flying only exists at work and in the virtual world. I spend a good amount of money that I make from flying airplanes on my own airplane because it's what I love. If I couldn't have that right, I'd at least have a Microsoft Flight Simulator. I guess I'm an aviation nerd too!

Yes, there are many more clues about passports and political beliefs of the pilots and passengers. They even have Muslim names. There is a huge investigation to continue.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid may be the most despicable pilots because of their actions. Or they may have loved their jobs and done their best. We may never know the truth.

I won't condemn them without the facts.

Brian Mulrooney

[Ratherbflying]

Outstanding post Brian, thank you for sharing it.

 

If any of you are unfamiliar with Brian's point about Lithium battery fires, you may want to watch this.

[MooneyBob]

Brian,

You are right about a lot of things. We all hope they will find the plane soon and it will clear innocent from suspicion.

[aviatoreb]

Very thoughtful post Brian.

 

A fire or some such severe emergency could explain a lot - thank you.

 

Can you think of why there would be a climb to FL45?

 

Good point on the air flight simulator.  As soon as I heard that reported on the news as if it meant something - I immediately thought about how cool I thought it was when I found the Mooney Rocket model just like my own airplane on Xplane - which I have on this very computer I am typing on right now - I bet a lot of us are nerds, proud nerds.

[Oscar Avalle]

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid are the two most pathetic pilots in the world. Why? Because they're dead and they can't defend themselves.

They are terrorists, suicidal maniacs, criminals, magicians, and even aliens in the minds of the news media's experts in the industry. These experts of private pilots, retired airline pilots, and Air Force Colonels are all coming up with evidence condemning these two pilots without anything solid. They are getting paid to sit in that CNN seat and feed you this "expert" information. There is no solid evidence, only clues.

Some of the most important clues in this mystery that I see include:

1) The sudden removal of power to several key communications systems and radar transmitters.

2) The sudden and unexplained turn away off of the programmed northerly course towards the west.

3) The lithium batteries that were onboard as cargo.

4) The captains homemade Boeing 777 simulator which has been confiscated by the Malaysian Police.

I have never flown the Boeing 777. Only the 767 and 757. I've had several friends ask me what I think happened. While I hate speculation without any solid evidence that a cockpit voice recorder or flight data recorder can provide, it may not be possible to retrieve that information now so only the experts are left to criminalize these two pilots. I am not defending these two dead pilots, only providing a "guess" based on real clues as to what really happened. I may be wrong.

First, the sudden removal of power to the transponder and ACARS systems. For those that don't know, the transponder simply identifies the aircraft to ATC radar, and ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) provides communication with the company including engine data to the company and weather data from. When you're out of radar contact, ACARS becomes the primary position reporting for the flight. It can be satellite provided.

There is so much emphasis on how one of these pilots could shut down each of these systems. One theory included him climbing down a latter under a compartment in the first class galley. Then using extensive aircraft systems knowledge, he removes power from the system rendering it useless. Most pilots have never seen this compartment. Mechanics know it well.

My speculation, that I'm entitled to use as well, is that a fire can burn through the wires that provide power to those systems.

Second, the sudden and unexplained turn off the programmed course towards the West. CNN said that someone had to have extensive training to reprogram the flight management computer that far off course and it had to be malicious and terrorist related. I think they did exactly what they were trained to do.

At my airline the standard practice while on a North Atlantic track or Pacific jet route is to preposition the heading selector of the flight guidance control panel (autopilot) to a heading perpendicular to the flight path to the shortest turn towards a divert airport. If an engine were to quit, a rapid decompression, or let's say something worse like a fire where to happen, this would be a good practice. Rather than trying to type in the flight management computer (FMC) the information needed to get the airplane to turn, you simply press the heading select knob that was positioned towards the West. In a GPS world where every aircraft is stacked up on routes and airways and separated by only 1000' vertical separation and just a few feet horizontal, you can't just start descending without first getting off the programmed course. These pilots may have turned off course (towards the West) so they can descend and initially turn towards Kuala Lumpur. They just didn't get the chance to program the rest of the way home. The fire was too intense.

Third, I have mentioned fire twice now. Lithium batteries have been on the radar of pilots unions for several years now. We don't just bitch about pay and benefits. Most of our battles are towards safety. The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) has been fighting hard to regulate the safe handling of lithium batteries as cargo onboard US air carriers since the 2010 crash of a UPS Boeing 747 transporting lithium batteries. But only two people (pilots) died on that flight. So there was no need for regulation.

If a fire were to start in a forward cargo compartment and spread to the avionics compartment, the pilots would have one hell of a battle on their hands. As a student pilot I heard the words "Aviate, Navigate, Communicate" during an emergency. Those words apply to a Cessna pilot or a Boeing pilot. With an emergency, you aviate first. Fly the airplane and fight the fire! You gather information and run the appropriate checklist. Next navigate. Divert! Kuala Lumper is closest. Pull the heading select knob and at least start the turn towards that direction. Communicate. It appears they could have run out of time and the radios or pilots were not capable of transmitting.

But how could a Boeing 777 that has a fire onboard continue to fly for that much time? The airplane is one of the strongest and most redundant airplanes ever built. Once established on a heading and altitude, each wing mounted engine is producing thrust from each wing main fuel tank. A fire may destroy the navigation, communication and manipulation that the cockpit can provide. But the engines run on fuel. Which they have.

And finally, the captain had a homemade Boeing 777 simulator in his home. What a nerd! No seriously, he is an aviation nerd! The guy probably spent a good amount of his well earned money that he made from flying airplanes.....on flying airplanes! If he was an American he may have been able to afford to purchase his own airplane. He'd probably attend Oshkosh every year! But in many Asian and other foreign countries airplane ownership is illegal. His passion for flying only exists at work and in the virtual world. I spend a good amount of money that I make from flying airplanes on my own airplane because it's what I love. If I couldn't have that right, I'd at least have a Microsoft Flight Simulator. I guess I'm an aviation nerd too!

Yes, there are many more clues about passports and political beliefs of the pilots and passengers. They even have Muslim names. There is a huge investigation to continue.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid may be the most despicable pilots because of their actions. Or they may have loved their jobs and done their best. We may never know the truth.

I won't condemn them without the facts.

Brian Mulrooney

 

great post thank you

[201er]

The thing is, your story is purely speculative. Meanwhile the facts (which aren't completely solid I fully admit) are:

 

ACARS was shut off some time prior to transponder

Transponder was shut off prior to last verbal communication

Plane was spotted on radar crossing Malaysia

They haven't found wreckage after more than a week of searching

No ELT or signal for help at all

 

If your speculation held water, they would have found the wreckage on Kuala Lumpur airport or at least on the way to it. They wouldn't be chasing leads looking for the plane in the Indian Ocean. I don't think there is any reasonable emergency-related speculation that puts the plane out there... AND out of military radar tracking range for that matter. Things would have been much more clear and predictable if it were an emergency.

[PTK]

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid are the two most pathetic pilots in the world. Why? Because they're dead and they can't defend themselves.

We may never know the truth.

I won't condemn them without the facts.

 

Excellent post Sir!

 

This is exactly how these talking heads on tv can get away with their bs. 

 

They spew their pollution from the comfort of their recliner without any facts.

 

Their only motivation is to fill up programming time.

[orionflt]

OK Mike, I'll play Devils advocate.....

lithium battery fire in hold burns thru wiring for ACARS, pilots troubleshooting problem loss of ACARS is not that serious...

fire burns out transponder wiring next....pilots never notice...ATC doesn't report the loss to the aircraft....

After last normal radio transmission other systems start going off line because of fire in fwd hold, smoke starts filling cabin... radios fail because of the fire....

pilots changes heading to divert for emergency landing, fire continues to burn pilot climbs to FL 450 trying to extinguish fire.....

 

plausible? 

 

I bet we could come up with hundreds of scenarios of what could have happened the only way we will be sure is to find the aircraft.

 

Brian

[Piloto]

Brian there is some conflicts in your theory. If there was fire on a plane that was confirmed to be airborne 5 hours after departure you would think any of the pilots would have tried to convey via VHF COM its condition. The COMs on the B777 and other airliners are powered from three separate 28V busses and can operate with engines off. Power to the ACARS cabin be turned off from the cockpit by just pulling the CB out. In the event of a catastrophic scenario as you describe the fly-by-wire control system would have reverted to direct hand flying mode. This would have required the pilot to hand fly the plane for four hours.

 

José   

[PMcClure]

Unfortunately all we have is speculation in this case. Even the facts can't really be taken as facts. They are only facts as reported by CNN and the Mayla government. Both are unreliable, not sure which one is more unreliable. They should look at the pilots and all available information but no one should rush to conclusions or blame. We need to realize that CNN and others are only selling airtime, not the truth. Until there is some hard evidence, who can say what happened or who is to blame. 

[Bob_Belville]

The thing is, your story is purely speculative. Meanwhile the facts (which aren't completely solid I fully admit) are:

 

ACARS was shut off some time prior to transponder

Transponder was shut off prior to last verbal communication

Plane was spotted on radar crossing Malaysia

They haven't found wreckage after more than a week of searching

No ELT or signal for help at all

 

If your speculation held water, they would have found the wreckage on Kuala Lumpur airport or at least on the way to it. They wouldn't be chasing leads looking for the plane in the Indian Ocean. I don't think there is any reasonable emergency-related speculation that puts the plane out there... AND out of military radar tracking range for that matter. Things would have been much more clear and predictable if it were an emergency.

I think that last night's talking heads told us that upon further review the ACARS & xponder failures could have been near simultaneous. If a catastrophic event spread rapidly it is not inconceivable to me that the pilots could have been overcome after invoking the HDG mode and before getting the plane turned toward KL. If the "fire" burns out or is automatically extinguished without damaging primary systems it's now a ghost ship with plenty of wind in her sails.

 

It was also recently reported that since the altitudes (FL 450 & 240?) were calculated from primary radar returns and not "mode C" reporting, they should be taken with a large grain of salt. To descend between one data pair would have required supersonic speed it was said. 

[orionflt]

Jose,

As I said, I was playing Devils Advocate.......but that being said I believe all the radios are located in the avionics bay so if they were damaged by fire it doesn't matter how many power sources they are feed from. but as for the fly by wire it was my understanding that the 777 does not have any direct cabling to the flight controls so if the avionics, and wiring were destroyed by fire what path ways would be available to manually send signals to the flight controls?.....so many questions....

 

Brian

[triple8s]

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Just read this......

[PTK]

The thing is, your story is purely speculative. Meanwhile the facts (which aren't completely solid I fully admit) are:

 

ACARS was shut off some time prior to transponder

Transponder was shut off prior to last verbal communication

Plane was spotted on radar crossing Malaysia

They haven't found wreckage after more than a week of searching

No ELT or signal for help at all

 

If your speculation held water, they would have found the wreckage on Kuala Lumpur airport or at least on the way to it. They wouldn't be chasing leads looking for the plane in the Indian Ocean. I don't think there is any reasonable emergency-related speculation that puts the plane out there... AND out of military radar tracking range for that matter. Things would have been much more clear and predictable if it were an emergency.

 

These aren't facts then are they? 

 

Pure speculation.

[mulro767]

I'm not trying to solve this mystery. There's still not enough evidence to do so. My post was only to show that there is a possibility that these pilots were not villains.

[aviatoreb]

I'm not trying to solve this mystery. There's still not enough evidence to do so. My post was only to show that there is a possibility that these pilots were not villains.

 

Agreed.  A voice of temperament.

[alex]

While we all agree that there is not enough evidence to really form a coherent theory on what actually happened and that the media many times races to spew ridiculous arguments for the sake of ratings, I believe that everything should be considered in a situation like this. The background on the pilots, the potential threat of  the two fake passport passengers, the 20 or so high profile employees of the Texas-based Freescale Semiconductor employees that had DOD ties. To ignore all possibilities for the sake of political correctness is to invite devastating events like Fort Hood with the American-born psychiatrist Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan. Even though colleagues and superiors found behavior and comments alarming, nothing was done (perhaps to avoid offending anyone) that might have changed the  "workplace violence"  that eventually took place.

[gsxrpilot]

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Just read this......

 

This makes the most sense of any theory I've heard yet.

[fantom]

These aren't facts then are they? 

 

Pure speculation.

 

Well grasshopper, what this tragedy again reinforces is that the lifespan of a 'fact' is quite short indeed. Much as is frustrates many, all in life is speculation to a large degree.

 

Pick the facts that suit you wisely.

[Jeff_S]

This makes the most sense of any theory I've heard yet.

 

I saw that Wired article earlier in the day and I also think it's the most likely explanation I've seen so far.  If the crew and passengers were incapacitated by smoke but somehow the fire extinguished itself and the plane kept on flying, that would answer many questions.  My mom still favors the UFO theory, so just remember...The Truth is Out There.  (This whole event really could come right out of the X-Files.)

[wishboneash]

Based on the article, which I feel is very plausible as well, the aircraft might have flown over the Maldives, perhaps seen on Sri Lankan radar and down into the ocean near Seychelles. Also, the US should have something radar data from Diego Garcia which is highly militarized.

[Cruiser]

Since my guess is as good as any other guess, this is what happened.

 

Who ever took over control of the plane was overcome by his attackers and in the resulting struggle all people in the cockpit were incapacitated. The airplane continued to fly on autopilot until fuel exhaustion and eventually did a "Sully" into the sea sinking nearly intact without activating the ELT. No wreckage to speak of and will never be located. Another mystery in aviation.

[mulro767]

Since my guess is as good as any other guess, this is what happened.

 

Who ever took over control of the plane was overcome by his attackers and in the resulting struggle all people in the cockpit were incapacitated. The airplane continued to fly on autopilot until fuel exhaustion and eventually did a "Sully" into the sea sinking nearly intact without activating the ELT. No wreckage to speak of and will never be located. Another mystery in aviation.

Aviation ELT's once armed will activate when submerged in water. So your theory holds no water.

[Guest]

It would seem to me that if the aircraft turned and was in stable flight when a fire destroyed all of the electrical/avionics systems the aircraft may have depressurized killing all on board and extinguishing the fire.

At high altitude and in smooth air it may have flown on until fuel was exhausted. Swiss Air 111 was lost with a fire in the cabin while trying to maneuver the the Halifax airport. Only difference the crew were able to report their problem. Would it have flown on in stable flight if they were not maneuvering?

Clarence

[wiguy]

 Just skimming through, but from what I read there were no batteries or other Haz-Mat on the plane. If there had been the lithium batteries on board it would be front & center by now.

 

 

  I do agree, the flight crew could easily be totally innocent of any wrong doing.