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aviatoreb

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aviatoreb last won the day on November 29 2022

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About aviatoreb

  • Birthday 04/24/1967

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  • Website URL
    http://people.clarkson.edu/~ebollt/

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    KPTD
  • Interests
    Airplanes!
  • Reg #
    N314EB
  • Model
    81' M20K Rocket

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  1. I am not sure I understand. You want a forecast at a specific lon lat position that may not be a current forecast location?
  2. The data is not there. Not for accurate long range forecasting. But now I realize maybe I am misunderstanding you - are you saying you want an easier to interpret presentation based on the forecasts already produced? Ok that could be a thing but I dont quite understand what you mean.
  3. The thing that makes long range weather forecasting not just difficult but impossible is that it is a chaotic system. It displays a property called sensitive dependence to initial conditions. That means even with an absolutely perfect model, by AI, by cleverness with physics modeling, or what not, if you miss specifying the initial state of the system (today), meaning you mismeasure the temperature or the barometric pressure at even one locality to insufficient precision (or you dont measure it at one relevant spot since we dont put instruments at every inch on the map) then that tiny error even if its temperature error of .0001 degrees F will eventually grow to swamp the accuracy of the signal. Ed Lorenz said this famously in the 1960s when he said a butterfly in Texas eventually could cause a tornado.
  4. Large language models would be a weather forecasting fun house. Large language models are incredibly impressive when it comes to producing realistic seeming text for example. But accuracy is poor. For example if you ask it to write a term paper on a scientific topic - or worse - a scientific paper - it will make one that looks like a term paper - with made up data, and fake made up citations. A system could be made to make up realistic looking forecasts, full of some days with sun and some days with clouds and some with rain or snow. But that would not be a forecast. I agree - a lot of computational science methods have come from the weather forecasting people as well as at least one now so-called machine learning method, namely data assimilation which has propagated into many other scientific areas. That's the topic where you combine a physics based model forecast together with an actual physical observation in a very smart way to produce a forecast which is better than either could make on their own.
  5. This is something exactly up my professional skill set. AI is not a magic trick. Accurate 10 day forecasts cannot be done by classical methods and AI cannot help. Weatherunderground's 10 day forecasts are very poor in quality. They make very nice looking forecasts but if you actually want accuracy, then they are irrelevant.
  6. Ok I have a broken klixon plastic - the electric part of the switch works fine but the cover is broke - at the plastic clip part. Landing light - does anyone have a landing light cover? Or a blank I would label?
  7. Is this thread still alive - I just broke a rocker switch and I need a new one. :-)
  8. You are the first person I have ever seen say that and it has occurred to me for a long time. That if I loose say 5kts do to lean of peak its only fair to compare the fuel mileage not to a same percentage of engine power but to a same speed on the rop side.
  9. I flew 6 and up year olds in my back seat and it was fine when they were small. Its very cramped as they became 20 somethings year olds and over 6 feet but I have flow with the same used to be a 6 year old now 6'4'' who wanted to sit in the back holding hands with his girl friend. Too small for that for a nice flight but it was superb when they were small. When I got this plane I thought I would end up moving up to a larger plane when they got big but I never ended up doing that. Now all 3 boys are all grown up - I drop my youngest off at college in Providence, RI in 2 weeks.... This plane serves me just great now on the other side and Im keeping her.
  10. That looks really great. How much does it way. Is it long enough to use easily with the longer nosed 6 cylinder Mooneys?
  11. As far as I know they did. Well until the end - on the 12th year they were showing strong signs of age - slow turning over of the prop etc. Until then they were testing out great.
  12. I had a pair last for 12 years in my rocket, on trickle charge.
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