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aviatoreb

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Everything posted by aviatoreb

  1. Well - as someone who knows a thing or two on all three (four including fractals along with chaos, wavelets, AI) of those topics - in fact the word chaos as in chaos theory does appear as one of the words in my PhD thesis - I can say all of those things live on. They didn't save the universe or humanity as was the hype, but they are all fundamental concepts in some way. They didn't disappear or become discredited or something. But they did all enjoy a hype era of good branding that caused a lot of interest. People still use them. AI is interesting because its like bell bottom jeans, it keeps going out of style and coming back - for like the last 70 years I think. Good branding - isn't it more fun to say "deep learning" than "function representation by neural networks with two or more layers". And of course the word neural network is also a hype word of good branding behind something that nonetheless is very useful and legit.
  2. That's exactly what I thought - I read the I in AI as an L as in AL as in AL Mooney! Then I was reading and thinking gee whiz why is AL being so polite and also non committal? Having read his biography I though gee I thought he had stronger opinions on things.
  3. This looks just horrific. I hope she survives. I am amazed with all the apparent crushing forces seen elsewhere on that plane that the pilot cage is still somewhat in shape.
  4. Wormholes! Somewhere on the other side of the universe there's now an abundance of roofers looking for work.
  5. I am not impressed with the post accident interviews. WOW - if I had been a dummy and crashed my plane and survived - please remind me just not to take any interviews on tv. It's better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. - Mark Twain. As for walking ducks. Well we have Canadian Geese who land in our backyard - and well those IFR ready Canadians will fly in anything!
  6. I’m having EXACTLY the same problems getting my house worked on. Plumbing roofing siding and addition - where did all the workers go? The service has gone down the quality has gone fine but the prices have gone way way up. Inflation is one thing but the decline of quality and impossibility of finding people stinks. flying ga never made financial sense. One advise if you can find it - find a shop or mechanics that know you personally and form a lasting relationship - humanize yourself and humanize them - the quality of the work then also comes from a place of looking after friends. And likewise I show customer loyalty and I bring beers and rides etc.
  7. Its really tragic. These are people who claim to be all natural and in touch with nature who buy animals that will soon need to be put down and even if they don't those animals are nomadic and would never be happy in a house environment.
  8. I knew a guy when I was in school that thought it would be hip crunchy granola manly to have a wolf puppy for a pet instead of a dog puppy. Yah it was a cute baby. But around 18 months it started acting aggressively and by two years stalking the owner stalking visitors stalking neighborhood kids and had to be put down. So much for natural crunchy granola. Me I want a baby elephant! They are cute!
  9. Scary. I wonder if that was because you were negligently culpable vs an act of God/bad luck - or is it your fault and so financial responsibility because it was your car no matter what?
  10. How does this work? Does the public utility pick up the cost of fixing the power stations? Who pays? Who pays for the rescue mission with all those fire, power, and medical personnel? Who pays for the lost power to all the businesses and houses? 200,000 users? Who pays for the lost business at restaurants, etc? Does all that come back to the insurance company and the pilot? I honesty don't know - this is a question. Is there a lawyer in the house?
  11. You missed my point entirely? Im not sure but I will riff anyway. Let me say it this way - Underwater cave scuba diving is considered very dangerous since on a per dive basis or alternatively on a per hour of exposure basis, it is very very risky. But death by cave diving "isn't really a thing" because yes, on a total count basis - many many people die every year by slipping and falling in their bathtub. But bathtubs are not more dangerous. On a per hour of exposure basis or on a per incident basis. Its all about the denominator. If one chooses to fly night ifr in low conditions, just by entering the real of that conditional probability P(crash|fligth night ifr in low conditions) is large, no matter what the means of the danger. Engine failure, disorientation, flying not at assigned altitude, for whatever reason. Yes in your data, night IMC crashes there are only 12 such crashes. That tells me nothing about the risk of night IMC. Nothing. Is that 12 out of 100 flights? Is it 12 out of 100,000 flights? Vs day VMC is 760 total crashes. Is that 760 out of 1000 flights? out of 1,000,000? It makes a difference what is the denominator to assess the risk. What if in a single year there were zero deaths by lion in the usa. So its not a thing. Does that make it safe to go sit in a cage with a lion?
  12. Well said / denominators count. From Professor Pie. :-)
  13. There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC. Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR. Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.
  14. There is a fault with that discussion and it is a statistical issue. The majority of GA flying is day VMC which is why the majority of issues occurs day VMC. Even though day VMC on a per flight basis carries much less risk than night and or LIFR. Not making a judgement, but just pointing out that the conditional probability is much higher risk in LIFR than day VMC even though the absolute numbers are much higher in the later.
  15. Many are saying that the probability of an engine issue in cruise are lower so the worry of LIFR enroute is low. Perhaps. But I have had exactly one issue in my flying career and it was exactly that - I had a complete engine failure at altitude enroute, but with altitude and VMC in my favor I made an uneventful dead stick landing at a runway that was maybe 15 miles from my location of failure. Even before that issue I would cancel a flight if it was LIFR enroute, but now, even more so.
  16. I just read that too - and furthermore I just read that one of them was already just released from the hospital. WOW.
  17. I would guess the tower and wires were completely invisible in the dark in the fog. I know there is a beacon light on towers but in the fog I bet it just wasn't there.
  18. Can’t imagine hung up like that scared injured progressively hypothermic and probably in shock.
  19. That is what I was thinking - could he have incorrectly set the altimeter? He was way low way far out. That said - what the heck was he doing flying in that in the first place? But once he was there near KGAI in below mins conditions - what the heck was he doing trying the approach anyway - were all the nearby airports below min too? KFDK is very nearby and has better approaches, a bigger airport environment, tower and multiple runways. Or heck - Dulles and BWI in a pinch - or just fly somewhere else entirely but I do not know the fuel status. I am a Professor in a department of electrical engineering and several of my colleagues are power transmission specialists. I was talking to one of the profs who is also a pilot - and we were just talking how amazingly unlikely this accident was a survived outcome. First - how many controlled flight into terrain accidents in night low ifr conditions are survived. Almost none. Obviously he found a nice springy metal tower with cables that arrested them from 100kts to zero in short order like a carrier landing but maybe more abrupt. I wonder if he had airbags. But here are the miracles - -they found a springy tower instead of a hard building or the ground or a hillside or a big tree. -the springy tower actually caught them at the right spot so they were decelerated sufficiently but not too strongly to break the humans inside but not too springy to bounce them off so they would fall backwards 100ft to the ground. -here is the part that amazed the power transmission engineer I was talking too - he told me exactly the voltage and capacity of that specific tower just by looking at it and he declared it a miracle that the entire airplane structure didn't just melt/dissolve/catch on fire - I mean aluminum on fire not to mention fuel - somehow it didn't arc etc. Yeah the birds landing not grounded thing but they are tiny plus dont touch the tower structure itself. -the tower didn't collapse in which case they would have been mechanically crushed and electrically fried simultaneously. I would guess if this was a computer simulation you could crash this airplane a thousand times and none of them would end up with this outcome - even if you crash it into the tower - something lined up just right to make everything work. This is what collapsed towers look like - an incident of an ice storm overloading their weight in 1996 I think near Montreal. https://www.inmr.com/looking-back-on-the-great-ice-storm-of-1998/ So overall a miracle these guys are alive and also the weirdest survived accident we are likely to ever see.
  20. Oh my gosh that looks so scary for them hanging up there for hours. Hopefully injures are minimal.
  21. Wow. Hopefully its just bruised egos and insurance to deal with tomorrow. Fingers crossed. That plane looks quite in tact. The cables and poles seem to have caught it like a spring loaded landing.
  22. Where is the TIT probe vs where is the EGT probe? I don't know - I am asking so this isn't a rhetorical question. But leading to - what does the volume of space look like where the gas passing across the probe look like? I see no reason why the gas cannot heat or cool as it passes through pipes of various size. PV=nRT and all. Its how refrigerators work. I always presumed this has something to do with it. Also, temps vary between EGT probes in part because of variations of where they are placed. But the outcome is as Lancaster says, TIT measurements are generally a good bit higher than EGT measurements.
  23. Oh my gosh I am so sorry to hear this. I had hoped it was somehow a stroke he could recover from. Prayers to his family and friends.
  24. There are other factors besides rocks that make a turbo nice. 1) In the east coast corridor I often fly mid teens since it keeps me out of what is otherwise lots and lots of traffic and I get much more direct routing, and pretty quiet skies. 2) Ice - if you do screw up the solution might be to climb. This is a less strong argument since - well you shouldn't screw up. But I carry tks and a turbo since yeah - I have screwed up a handful of times in the past. I am a true inadvertent guy though - planning on no ice.
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