Airplane ownership CV19

[Andy95W]

2 minutes ago, Eight8Victor said:

 The only crappy thing about it that I see locally is businesses all around me are failing and people are not able to make mortage payments and other financial obligations. 

I'm pretty sure the people who've had family members die would disagree with you.

 And I bet the doctors and nurses who've had coworkers die will disagree even more.

[Eight8Victor]

Just now, Andy95W said:

I'm pretty sure the people who've had family members die would disagree with you.

 And I bet the doctors and nurses who've had coworkers die will disagree even more.

My grandmother died three weeks ago. I’ve lost three really good friends in the lat 6 months, two under 50 years old. People die, its part of life. 

[bonal]

And the studies by Stanford and USC are they also without merit. Last I heard those were pretty reputable institutions and are also being equally discarded by the media and our trusty government health administrations. Dr Birx was quoted that we won't see normal until October which is interesting as that was the same expectation indicated by the Kern county health administrator in their comments refuting  these two pretend doctors. If that's true this country is going to explode. 

[Eight8Victor]

13 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Evidently it's not just news sources. 

People trust the scientific experts, data, and studies that support their own opinions.  And then shout with disdain at any who don't agree.

When did Americans stop trying to see both sides of a story?  

Uh, yeah. Quite a bit of shouting and high horse riding going on here. Oh and even name calling.

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Eight8Victor

[ilovecornfields]

I’m not trying to win friends. I’m trying to prevent a horrible situation from becoming the worst catastrophe of my lifetime using the tools I have in my possession.

I get the feeling you and I have different experiences and we will certainly interpret the same things in different ways. That’s the way the human mind works.

In 2009, I saw young healthy people, in their 20 and 30s die from H1N1. I’ve seen children and adults either crippled or die from vaccine preventable diseases. I’ve seen the devastation this disease has caused and I’d like to do whatever I can to minimize that. From my experience and training this won’t happen by asserting a conspiracy. It will happen if we have a civil dialogue based on facts. As new information becomes available, our models change. I’m sorry this frustrates you, but that’s how science works. Medicine actually has a term for fixed false beliefs despite evidence to the contrary- delusion.

I fully admit I am not always the most civil when it comes to these discussion but for me, they’re not theoretical. I’m dealing with it every day- both the devastation from the disease and the devastation from our efforts to control it. Domestic violence, child abuse, suicides and overdoses have all gone up. I see it. Not theoretical for me. I don’t know if you’ve seen any victims of child abuse but I have and if it doesn’t fill you with rage then there is something wrong with you. An ER doctor who had been treating COVID patients, was herself infected and recovered recently committed suicide. She had no mental health issues prior to this.

I’m sorry, but I think the way out of this is fact based civil dialogue, not conspiracy theories and acting on feelings. We’re all scared, but that’s when we most need to come together and reason our way out of it, not act irrationally based on our emotions.

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by ilovecornfields
Removed bleach transcript

[Eight8Victor]

Just now, Andy95W said:

So by your posts, you care more about money than human life, pain, and suffering.  How delightfully un-Christian of you!

not even worth a response

 

 

[bonal]

Dr Birx commented on what Trump said her statement was that he is getting information constantly and only just heard information regarding UV and disaffection moments before the brief and his style is that he runs things over in his mind and tends to verbally analyze as he does. I do believe there is under development a ventilator that can have UV light cast into the lungs. I apologize for my crude terminology.

[DXB]

@bonal @Eight8Victor  Truth be told, I'm a little desperate to get out of this situation too, and it's starting to make me irritable - I'm sorry if that comes across. I seriously hope you guys won't think I'm part of a conspiracy against you or regard you with any disrespect at all.  I bet if we knew each other in the real world, you'd see that clearly isn't the case. At the same time, if I see something that just doesn't jibe with reality from my perspective, I'm not doing anyone a favor by not pointing it out.  I'm sure you'd do the same for me in your respective areas of expertise.  I do think we need to draw a strong line between what is known and what is truly not known and call out people who want to fudge that line for one reason or another. Otherwise we are going to make some terrible mistakes. Also, if you look back, I think you'll notice @ilovecornfields and I openly disagree on plenty here despite some shared perspective - we would make terrible co-conspirators in this regard. Our disagreement if anything reflects the confusion and complexity of the situation. I do think we both want to get to the best answer, as do you.

 

 

 

[bonal]

At some point the flood gates are going to open or break there won't be a vaccine and even if there is will we as free people be forced to take it. I don't like that thought one little bit. For all I know they might put something in it to convince me the world isn't flat. And all of us dutiful citizens that have sheltered and have not gotten the virus are going to get it sooner or later we made major decisions to shut everything down on very incomplete inaccurate models. Would more people have died in the short term if no intervention likely so in the long term well no one knows and we will never know because you can't do both approaches add to that we will never know how many people died with COVID as opposed  to from it. F...King  politicians have no intention of lifting stay at home orders here in California. Oh and let's not forget that the WHO originally advised that this virus was not transferred human to human. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by bonal

[Skates97]

Both my parents are in their 70's, I haven't been to see them since this broke out. My oldest sister has a son with Trisomy 18, the doctors here should know what that is, they also should know it's a miracle that he celebrated his 8th birthday. My sister commented to me that her and her husband are out of work and it is extremely difficult, but not as difficult as if they had to bury their son. Every flu season you aren't allowed near their house if you haven't had a flu shot, he usually ends up in ICU at some point anyway. This thing I think would take him quickly. If my parents got it, I would probably lose them too, it's not kind to older people. 

With that said, I don't think 26 million people should have lost their jobs to save my parents or nephew. Does that mean I love money more, or that I'm not Christian? Hardly, and what a ridiculous thing to say. Are my parents and nephews lives more important to me than the 26 million unemployed people? Yes, they are, but I bet those people's lives and livelihoods are more important to them, so what makes it right that they suffer so that I might not have to? 

There has to be a middle ground somewhere, and the one size fits all lock down of everything doesn't make sense. In urban environments should there be more restrictions? Probably. In the rural counties, some in CA that have yet to record a case, should there be less restrictions? I think so. 

I don't think seeing everything in terms of absolutes is helpful or productive. Calling names, even less productive, with the potential to fracture friendships in this community that I have been grateful to be a part of for the past almost four years. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Skates97
I removed the posts I quoted, one of them was removed by the person that posted it, no need to leave it here in my post.

[NotarPilot]

2 hours ago, Skates97 said:

 

Both my parents are in their 70's, I haven't been to see them since this broke out. My oldest sister has a son with Trisomy 18, the doctors here should know what that is, they also should know it's a miracle that he celebrated his 8th birthday. My sister commented to me that her and her husband are out of work and it is extremely difficult, but not as difficult as if they had to bury their son. Every flu season you aren't allowed near their house if you haven't had a flu shot, he usually ends up in ICU at some point anyway. This thing I think would take him quickly. If my parents got it, I would probably lose them too, it's not kind to older people. 

With that said, I don't think 26 million people should have lost their jobs to save my parents or nephew. Does that mean I love money more, or that I'm not Christian? Hardly, and what a ridiculous thing to say. Are my parents and nephews lives more important to me than the 26 million unemployed people? Yes, they are, but I bet those people's lives and livelihoods are more important to them, so what makes it right that they suffer so that I might not have to? 

There has to be a middle ground somewhere, and the one size fits all lock down of everything doesn't make sense. In urban environments should there be more restrictions? Probably. In the rural counties, some in CA that have yet to record a case, should there be less restrictions? I think so. 

I don't think seeing everything in terms of absolutes is not helpful or productive. Calling names, even less productive, with the potential to fracture friendships in this community that I have been grateful to be a part of for the past almost four years. 

Well said Skates!

[Andy95W]

8 hours ago, Skates97 said:

 

With that said, I don't think 26 million people should have lost their jobs to save my parents or nephew. Does that mean I love money more, or that I'm not Christian? Hardly, and what a ridiculous thing to say. Are my parents and nephews lives more important to me than the 26 million unemployed people? Yes, they are, but I bet those people's lives and livelihoods are more important to them, so what makes it right that they suffer so that I might not have to? 

There has to be a middle ground somewhere, and the one size fits all lock down of everything doesn't make sense. In urban environments should there be more restrictions? Probably. In the rural counties, some in CA that have yet to record a case, should there be less restrictions? I think so. 

I don't think seeing everything in terms of absolutes is helpful or productive. Calling names, even less productive, with the potential to fracture friendships in this community that I have been grateful to be a part of for the past almost four years. 

You're right, Richard.  I apologize and I deleted the post.

That's what happens when I throw out an angry post at a specific person who was expressing extremist views without an attempt at seeing any other side of the issue.

[Skates97]

56 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

You're right, Richard.  I apologize and I deleted the post.

That's what happens when I throw out an angry post at a specific person who was expressing extremist views without an attempt at seeing any other side of the issue.

I edited my post and removed yours, no need to leave keep it there after you deleted it.

I can't tell you the number of times that I have started quoting someone, typed up a post, and then deleted the whole thing. I don't think I've regretted not posting, but there have been some over the years I wish I could take back.

[MooneyMitch]

1 hour ago, Skates97 said:

I edited my post and removed yours, no need to leave keep it there after you deleted it.

I can't tell you the number of times that I have started quoting someone, typed up a post, and then deleted the whole thing. I don't think I've regretted not posting, but there have been some over the years I wish I could take back.

Life as a human can be difficult occasionally..... no one is perfect (all the time, anyway....LOL ). 

[Yooper Rocketman]

6 hours ago, Skates97 said:

There has to be a middle ground somewhere, and the one size fits all lock down of everything doesn't make sense. In urban environments should there be more restrictions? Probably. In the rural counties, some in CA that have yet to record a case, should there be less restrictions? I think so. 

That’s been my point all along.  I’ve had a tremendous respect for ILC but have been disappointed there appears to be no support for those of us under this lockdown in areas the urban communities would love to have the infection and fatality rates we are experiencing.  And it’s clearly possible we could see an escalation, just later than everyone else.  I fear that would mean we had 2 months of lockdown for no benefit, and then end up locked down longer than anyone else because there was no discretion applied to how, WHERE AND WHEN this was implemented.  Just the one blanket fits all policy.  

My sister was a board certified MD (retired early due to TBI).  I found her to be one of the most accomplished doctors I ever met.  She was the most open minded for sure, advocating healthy and smart lifestyle over traditional treatments.  As my or my wife’s physicians recommended invasive procedures, many times she gave us alternatives that we weren’t aware of.  I’m still amazed the callous reaction my physician had to me dropping my PSA below “the alert level” with diet changes.  I went from him recommending a biopsy to being well below the alert threshold, and he didn’t even wonder how I was able to do that. 

The relevance of that?  As much as I respect her professionalism and knowledge, she has clear biases.  Bias’s that defy her very core values because they meet HER agenda.  I believe we ALL are capable of the same.  Knowing that, I probably try harder to suppress those biases (not always successful) than I would absent that awareness.  

I supported my governor on the first lockdown.  Probably the first action by her I’ve ever supported.  But after the facts surfaced over time, she has been completely unwilling to “adjust”.  If I ran my business this way I would never have made it 35 years.

Tom

 

 

[ilovecornfields]

5 hours ago, Yooper Rocketman said:

That’s been my point all along.  I’ve had a tremendous respect for ILC but have been disappointed there appears to be no support for those of us under this lockdown in areas the urban communities would love to have the infection and fatality rates we are experiencing.  And it’s clearly possible we could see an escalation, just later than everyone else.  I fear that would mean we had 2 months of lockdown for no benefit, and then end up locked down longer than anyone else because there was no discretion applied to how, WHERE AND WHEN this was implemented.  Just the one blanket fits all policy.  

Tom, 

It saddens me to read this. I respect you and your opinion matters to me, so I apologize if I gave you the feeling that I have no support for anything other than a complete lockdown. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I tried to choose my words carefully and as far as I know I have never suggested that and, in fact, tried to discuss why I support opening things up gradually and based on local circumstances and information about the specific population. If you send me a PM I will be happy to direct to you the post or discuss further. Other people have called me on the phone to discuss these issues and at least I have felt that this was productive.

I am clearly frustrated by the situation, as are many of you. I am also in a different position than many of you because I am seeing the disease first hand, not just reading accounts of what is happening in other places (and I appreciate the TWO people who thanked me for my service and risking my life to help others in this situation.) I'm sure you're all doing your part as well and I thank you for that.

If you will indulge me, let me lay things out from my perspective and perhaps you can see why I have taken the approach I did:

On March 4th, I started a poll called "Love of flying in the time of coronavirus" because I felt people were not taking this seriously and was concerned that our activities put us at particular risk both to spread and acquire the disease. To date, 75.32% stated they would not modify their flying plans or pre/post flight activities due to coronavirus. At that time there were 93k confirmed cases globally and 12.5k outside of China, but few in the US.

Also on March 4th, @gxrpilot (who I respect) said "Although the company has told us to quit traveling. I'm not really changing anything. Although if travel across the country gets shut down AND schools are closed, my wife and I will jump in the Mooney and go traveling. So we might actually fly the Mooney more if things get worse." @stephrn and @bravoman liked it.

That same day, @Cody Stallings posted an asinine picture showing other viruses that had minimal effect on our lives and economy with the line "Wake up America! Same fear campaign, different year." 16 people liked it. 

1.  

   DanM20C

   March 12

2. Air pirate

   March 9
3.  

   Kmac

   March 7
4.  

   1964-M20E

   March 7
5.  

   elimansour

   March 6
6.  

   bill98

   March 6
7.  

   Denver98

   March 5
8.  

   Igor_U

   March 5
9.  

   N201MKTurbo

   March 5
10.  

    StevenL757

    March 5
11.  

    skydvrboy

    March 5
12.  

    tmo

    March 5
13.  

    Mooney in Oz

    March 5
14.  

    kpaul

    March 5
15.  

    gsxrpilot

    March 4
16.  

    carusoam

    March 4

March 5th, @steingar said he's not the least bid afraid of it. "Most immunocompetent people get a minor infection that resembles a bad cold" As we know, this is absolutely not true and most deaths have been in immunocompetent people.@tmo commented "Just wash your hands...  Perhaps my tickets to get to the Summit will be less expensive due to this hysteria.." In the US 228 cases, 14 deaths. 

That same day, @n201mkturbo started with the conspiracy theory and said "The difference is that there is a lot of people in this world with international media access that would love to ruin the current robust economy to put their own political party back in power". 8 people liked it, same people liking the virus picture. That was also the day I added the chart with the latest mortality figures from flu vs. COVID by age group. @hammdo also posted the same virus picture that had just been posted the day before. Cody Stallings liked it. 

On March 11th, Joe Larussa posted about his wonderful cruise "I’m on a cruise ship in Mexico as we speak! Lots and lots and lots of hand washing going on. Not worried at all about me and my wife. Mid 50’s and in good health. Everyone here in good spirits and enjoying life." We now know a significant portion of the fleet eventually had the virus and the passengers and those they infected lead to thousands of cases. 

On March 12, @jeph357 posted that same asinine virus picture. 

On March 13, I diagnosed my first COVID-19 case (maybe not the first one I saw, but the first one I diagnosed).  Disneyland shut down and the sheltering in place started happening in different counties and states. US 2204 cases, 49 deaths.

And so on...

I won't go through what's happened recently since I'm sure you're following it, but the conspiracy theories and denials have continued. Sometimes from the same people, sometimes from new ones. Currently we have 981k cases and 55k deaths, a little over a month after I diagnosed my first case.

Throughout this time I have tried to be objective and use facts and my knowledge of science, epidemiology and medicine to explain what is going on to those that have expressed their frustrations at understanding it. I have done so to the best of my ability, but as you have seen from the conversations between myself and @DXB, there is a lot to this and the same information can be interpreted different ways. On the major points, however, I think we agree. As far as I know, I have NEVER said we should continue the "lockdown" indefinitely or claimed to have "all the answers" (I'm pretty sure I have done the opposite).

What frustrates me is that people are scared and anxious and instead of trying to talk about it and reason their way through it, they adopt the immature coping strategies of denial and minimization (I'm not calling the people "immature" that's just how those two strategies are characterized). It seems that to many, it is LESS anxiety provoking to think that there's a conspiracy to take away your rights and put you in the poor house than to acknowledge that there is a virus running around that DESPITE THESE CRAZY MEASURES, has infected a million people and killed about 55k. I know many of you are uncomfortable with exponential growth, but WITHOUT these measures these numbers would be expected to be orders of magnituide higher.

I am saddened that we seem to have prepared ourselves to be unable to deal with this rationally and cooperatively. 5 years ago, who knew what "gaslighting" was or "alternative facts." How often did you hear people say they didn't "believe" in science? How polarized was the country? If you ever get a chance to visit the WWII museum in New Orleans (not now!) they do a really good job of showing how Hitler's rise to power and WWII didn't happen in isolation, but due to current and local events that "prepared" the country to accept him. I am NOT comparing our current leader to Hitler, but I think it is a very valid lesson to learn from history that when we reject the things we don't agree with not based on rational thinking but based on feelings, we are "priming" ourselves to be deceived and taken advantage of.

In all honesty, I think I've said most of the things I need to say. Some people can accept facts and reasoning and some can't. To paraphrase one of my favorite books "Too soon old, too late smart" - you can't use logic to displace an idea that wasn't placed there by logic to begin with.

My fear is that in online forums, the "groupthink" often becomes the loudest voice, not the most valid one. I'm not claiming I'm the most informed or the most correct, but to paraphrase @DXB , "this is something I know a little about."

If you'd like to discuss further, please send me a PM and I'll give you my phone number. At this point, I think that those who are able and willing to hear my points have heard them and those that aren't willing and able to listen to what I'm saying will continue to believe what they want and act the way they want regardless of anything I can say or do.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[carusoam]

2 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

Tom, 

It saddens me to read this. I respect you and your opinion matters to me, so I apologize if I gave you the feeling that I have no support for anything other than a complete lockdown.
 

Please correct me if I'm wrong,

but I tried to choose my words carefully...

 

 

If you will indulge me, let me lay things out from my perspective and perhaps you can see why I have taken the approach I did:

I felt people were not taking this seriously

(who I respect) said "

That same day, posted an asinine picture And so on...

conspiracy theories and denials have continued. Sometimes from the same people, sometimes from new ones.
 

Throughout this time I have tried to be objective .....   to the best of my ability, but...  as

I have NEVER said...

What frustrates me is that people are scared and anxious....  

they adopt the immature coping strategies of denial and minimization....

 

they do a really good job of showing how Hitler's rise to power and WWII didn't happen in isolation,

I am NOT comparing our current leader to Hitler, but I think

 

In all honesty, I think I've said most of the things I need to say.
 

Some people can accept facts and reasoning and some can't.

My fear what that in online forums, the "groupthink"

 

those that aren't willing and able to listen to what I'm saying will continue to believe what they want and act the way they want regardless of anything I can say or do.

 

 

 

 

 

I was trying to understand what you were saying, ILC...

But your message is getting lost in all the negativity you are posting...

Would you be able to read what you wrote? 
 

Not being a skilled reader, I cut things up to better understand what you were writing...

 

Consider taking a break...

Read what you write...

Eliminate quoting people to insult them directly...

 

Stirring emotions intentionally or unintentionally makes no sense in this small community...

I’m not sensing why you would do this in any community...

Best regards,

-a-

[Ross Taylor]

 I have no expertise in this area...or, for that matter, many.    So, I try to be open minded and learn as much as I can from people and sources that present what appears to be fact/data-based information and seem free of bias.  We all have our biases and I certainly have strong political and social views, but I try to recognize that and go out of my way to look at other sides so I'm not myopic.  There are clearly well-educated, informed people both here on MS and in the public, either politics or media, that have great information to share...and from whom I can learn.

But, how do I choose who to listen to and of whom I should be skeptical?  I listen to the manner in which the information is presented, I look at their willingness to use labels "for the other side", I look for signs of emotional reaction (such as the use of derogatory terms or insults) that might interfere with their ability to avoid confirmation bias, and I look at motivation (such as politicians using an issue to force agenda items or for political gain).

I'm still learning how to sift through all of this...more and more all the time.

EDIT to ask my earlier question regarding the stark difference in reported deaths, here in the USA and in Japan or Singapore or other countries.  For those who might know...is that huge difference due to reporting differences or are they (Japan and Singapore) doing something we might learn from?

[ilovecornfields]

3 hours ago, carusoam said:

Read what you write...

Eliminate quoting people to insult them directly...

Anthony,

I’m sorry but I don’t get it. If you’re offended by someone quoting what you said, are they to blame for quoting it or are you to blame for saying it? If having your words repeated to you offends you then maybe that a sign that something is wrong with what you’re saying. It is somehow more offensive for someone to point out what you said that for you to say it in the first place?! That is truly bizzare.

My point was that, from the beginning, I have been attacked and ridiculed for pointing out that this disease was coming and that we would have to alter our lifestyles to mount an effective response. I think that it evident to everyone now, it apparently wasn’t then.

Please don’t attack me for quoting what you say. If you think my quotes are offensive then don’t say those things in first place.
 

Edit: This just in (not Fake News). Cornonavirus had now killed more Americans than the entire Vietnam War. Unless that whole thing was a conspiracy  too.

https://apple.news/AlKSV0y9OTee7ky1F1aVtSg

Edited April 28, 2020 by ilovecornfields
Added link

[DXB]

1 hour ago, Ross Taylor said:

EDIT to ask my earlier question regarding the stark difference in reported deaths, here in the USA and in Japan or Singapore or other countries.  For those who might know...is that huge difference due to reporting differences or are they (Japan and Singapore) doing something we might learn from?

Japan was very successful early on, reacting immediately to their neighbor China's issue and locking down.  Singapore was INCREDIBLY successful - perhaps the most successful nation of all. They appeared to eradicate it outright through using a well developed public health infrastructure and incredibly aggressive contact tracing and isolation. Both are very cohesive, compliant societies and were also prepared.

But then Japan tried to open up some schools after very few cases for a month, had a rapid spike in cases, and locked down again. Japan's death rate doesn't seem that strange to me. Different approaches to testing create huge variations in the denominator, including adding tons of false positive tests if you decide to test everyone with the sniffles. What happened to Singapore is even more ominous - remember they looked like they outright got rid of it, but that was clearly not the case - it emerged again rapidly because a low level asymptomatic pool with community transmission still lurked under the surface.   Singapore does have very few reported deaths - something really seems off with the numbers there. I'm not sure of the reason.

But my point is this:  The best reason I’ve heard for hope that Singapore-style "eradication" was possible is that initially the basic Ro  for SARS-CoV (SARS) and SARS-CoV2 (COVID19) were reportedly similar, and SARS could be eradicated from populations using measures that reduce effective Ro. However, those early estimates of COVID19's basic Ro did not capture a distinguishing feature of COVID19: weaker symptoms resulting in vast asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic pools that do not come to medical attention, making transmission tracing much harder. COVID19 has spread much more aggressively than SARS, and COVID19’s typically milder, sometimes asymptomatic clinical course may be the distinguishing determinant for that spread. Eradication for any country seems unlikely to me even if one discounts their needs to open more to the outside world at some point. I suspect some of these places would be better served in the long run by less restriction presently so their populations can achieve greater exposure while maintaining manageable rates of severe cases entering hospitals. The critical debate is what does effective mitigation look like for any discrete population at a given moment. Mitigating restrictions must be tailored to local dynamics of spread, the need for widespread immunity, and economic impact.

 

[carusoam]

1 hour ago, ilovecornfields said:

Anthony,

I’m sorry but I don’t get it. If you’re offended by someone quoting what you said, are they to blame for quoting it or are you to blame for saying it? If having your words repeated to you offends you then maybe that a sign that something is wrong with what you’re saying. It is somehow more offensive for someone to point out what you said that for you to say it in the first place?! That is truly bizzare.

My point was that, from the beginning, I have been attacked and ridiculed for pointing out that this disease was coming and that we would have to alter our lifestyles to mount an effective response. I think that it evident to everyone now, it apparently wasn’t then.

Please don’t attack me for quoting what you say. If you think my quotes are offensive then don’t say those things in first place.

No offense taken, ILC...

Just trying to help you make your points...

And not have you drown them out...

Or accidentally turn off your audience...

 I am having difficulty following what you write for some reason... and it’s not the technical part...

Normal for me... so I ask a lot of questions...

 

Some technical people have difficulty with sales at first... this situation seems familiar...

Other people get offended when they get singled out...

Trust me, I’m not like other people... 

 

You have a valuable message to share... let’s get it out so people can pick it up... and absorb it...

As far as attacking, and ridiculing... not acceptable practices for MS...  usually results in time off... if it continues.  Or ejection if it’s a serious offense.

PP thoughts only, not a therapist, or writing coach, or internet expert...

 

Best regards,

-a-

[PT20J]

A lot of future plans seem to depend on testing. But widespread testing (or random sampling) in a large population with low prevalence of infection would seem to require really good tests so as avoid confusing the statistics with false positives and false negatives. Anybody know the sensitivity and specificity of available tests?

Skip

[Yooper Rocketman]

3 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Tom, 

It saddens me to read this. I respect you and your opinion matters to me, so I apologize if I gave you the feeling that I have no support for anything other than a complete lockdown. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I tried to choose my words carefully and as far as I know I have never suggested that and, in fact, tried to discuss why I support opening things up gradually and based on local circumstances and information about the specific population. If you send me a PM I will be happy to direct to you the post or discuss further. Other people have called me on the phone to discuss these issues and at least I have felt that this was productive.

I am clearly frustrated by the situation, as are many of you. I am also in a different position than many of you because I am seeing the disease first hand, not just reading accounts of what is happening in other places (and I appreciate the TWO people who thanked me for my service and risking my life to help others in this situation.) I'm sure you're all doing your part as well and I thank you for that.

Throughout this time I have tried to be objective and use facts and my knowledge of science, epidemiology and medicine to explain what is going on to those that have expressed their frustrations at understanding it. I have done so to the best of my ability, but as you have seen from the conversations between myself and @DXB, there is a lot to this and the same information can be interpreted different ways. On the major points, however, I think we agree. As far as I know, I have NEVER said we should continue the "lockdown" indefinitely or claimed to have "all the answers" (I'm pretty sure I have done the opposite).

I am saddened that we seem to have prepared ourselves to be unable to deal with this rationally and cooperatively. 5 years ago, who knew what "gaslighting" was or "alternative facts." How often did you hear people say they didn't "believe" in science? How polarized was the country? If you ever get a chance to visit the WWII museum in New Orleans (not now!) they do a really good job of showing how Hitler's rise to power and WWII didn't happen in isolation, but due to current and local events that "prepared" the country to accept him. I am NOT comparing our current leader to Hitler, but I think it is a very valid lesson to learn from history that when we reject the things we don't agree with not based on rational thinking but based on feelings, we are "priming" ourselves to be deceived and taken advantage of.

ILC

I must have missed, or (with this topic so detailed at times beyond my pay grade) glossed over, your support of removing the lock down in areas that no longer make sense.  No need to point out the specific instances, your integrity has already been established and I believe you.  Your compassion to see less cases is clearly driven by your exposure through your job.  I would even give some of the most serious naysayers the benefit of the doubt their feelings towards this would be different if their view was through your eyes and your experiences.  That said, I also have compassion for those frustrated about this (hell, I am) when THEY are not seeing the storm in their neighborhood.  Government or political conspiracies; one need look no further than the very reference of WWII and Hitler you made, and how the Germans could have ever let the death camps happen, to see why it's not necessarily unhealthy to be concerned about the actions taken by some of the state leaders during this national event.  To not be concerned would be naive.  

I pointed out in a very recent post the vulnerability of my local (rural) hospital.  Circumstances like this are NOT being considered by my state leader.  I am not just talking the lock down either.  The very professionals in the same field as you, in my mind, have the ability to determine what medical procedures can be performed safely, without orders from a J.V. governor.  In the end, numbers will be guesses, but I will put my money on the actions by my governor will cost us more lives than the virus in my town.  And it's not lack of information.  Our legislators from the U.P. (both parties) have been asking for discretion for our unique Upper Peninsula.  She has arbitrarily decided we are NOT worthy of that.  I'm not naive enough to think there's not a possible political reason either.  She lost all but one county up here in the election. 

Tom

 

 

[MooneyMitch]

Through it all, there are the simple beauties in our lives................

Hang in there everyone.

[BorealOne]

16 hours ago, DXB said:

...Eradication for any country seems unlikely to me even if one discounts their needs to open more to the outside world at some point. I suspect some of these places would be better served in the long run by less restriction presently so their populations can achieve greater exposure while maintaining manageable rates of severe cases entering hospitals. The critical debate is what does effective mitigation look like for any discrete population at a given moment. Mitigating restrictions must be tailored to local dynamics of spread, the need for widespread immunity, and economic impact.

 

This pretty much describes our moment here in the North. 

In the NWT, there are more caribou than people. We are remote, not rural. 40,000 people spread over half a million square miles (much bigger than Texas, almost as big as Alaska). About 1/2 the population lives in Yellowknife, a city of 20,000 people. Everyone else is in small towns and villages, most of which are fly-in only for much of the year, once the ice roads melt. Most of the population is Indigenous (native).

At present we are under a pretty draconian lockdown. No non-essential travel to the Territories. Anyone coming in gets to quarantine for 14 days, or must remain completely isolated from the population for the duration of their stay. No indoor gatherings of any size. All schools and most businesses closed. Checkpoints at all road crossings and major airports. Most of the remote communities have implemented further measures to control virtually any non-resident entry into their communities. 

Everyone is feeling the pinch - economically, we are a resource economy. Diamonds are the biggest export. One of the mines has filed for bankruptcy protection because it turns out you can't move rough diamonds in the midst of a pandemic. Oil and gas is next. Folks know what's happened on that end. Tourism isn't happening - so all the small air operators, restaurants,  hotels, and other small businesses which service that sector are in freefall. 

We also have ZERO cases at the moment. Since the outbreak, we've had 5 confirmed cases, all determined to be travel exposures, all of whom were isolated and have recovered with no evidence of community spread, evidenced by no new cases for several weeks. As of today, over 1700 tests have been administered, of which 1679 have returned negative, 39 waiting for results. We might have dodged a bullet.

So why aren't people rioting in the streets to 'end the lockdown'? On the contrary, there remains strong support for it. Why?

It's pretty simple. Folks have long memories. Many of the villages were nearly wiped out in the 1921 pandemic, and the stories of what happened, and how it happened, have been passed on. Elders are saying to leaders:  "we didn't know what was happening then, but now we do. We'll wait it out, and we'll try to survive." Scientists are saying that we have the perfect conditions for rapid spread - small, tightly integrated communities, with many people living in multi-generational homes. Basically - it would be wildfire in our small communities. Our critical care resources are centralized in a few of the larger centres. We have 6 ICU beds and  <20 ventilators in the Territories, total. Most villages have a nursing clinic, and rely on medivac flights for anything more serious. In any outbreak scenario, these resources would quickly be overwhelmed.

So leaders have been listening to the scientists and to Elders, and are continuing the lockdown. At the same time, we all know the lockdown can't last - it's completely unsustainable. 

The plan, which is still taking shape, is to re-open gradually, but only after a few conditions are met.

First, there has to be accurate testing that can be run in the communities with results within an hour. Fortunately, there's now a box for that (a PCR test running on a Spartan Biosciences platform called the "Cube" that is about the size of a large coffee, and can be used by non-techs) and those machines will be avail and running here in a few weeks. By the end of May, we should be able to test rapidly, and have enough tests to administer them to asymptomatic individuals as well. That will be a big step.

We also need an effective system of contact tracing, and facilities to isolate and contain known cases AND potential exposures. That's harder, and will take some time to work out all of the infrastructure to support that.

As these conditions are met and resources come on-line, we expect some relaxation of social distancing measures and protocols inside the NWT. There will be a staged re-opening of schools, businesses, and other services. But it ain't going back to "normal' for a while, and tight restrictions on people coming into the NWT are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable.

No one expects miracles, but no one can afford mistakes. It's a tough corner.