Weather Scenarios Go/No-Go Game

[Marauder]

Im onboard with you Chris except for #3 which i think you may have got backwards. #3 would be a go for me so long as i had a good departure alternate .

Mike the two engines dont really play into these scenarios for me. The two engines for me is really more of an enroute relaxer flying over unfriendly terrairn during night or low imc.

I did get it backwards. I read "departure" as "destination". I would still be hesitant launching in 300' with only a VOR approach back into the departure airport. Like you said, if nearby alternates are available, I might consider it. But the risk is only mitigated if the plane is still flyable. If it is an engine out, 300' is not a lot of room to find a place to set down. But then again, if I were in a booted Baron.

[Marauder]

7 minutes ago, bnicolette said: Im onboard with you Chris except for #3 which i think you may have got backwards. #3 would be a go for me so long as i had a good departure alternate .

Are you FIKI?

I think I saw boots on his Baron. Might not be FIKI, but better than what we have.

[laytonl]

#1 and #5 are my no goes.  I don't like winds over 30 kits and #5 could go south we no reasonable alternative.  Lee

[Jerry 5TJ]

#5 was a Go for me.  I figured:

1. With XM and ADS-B onboard the METAR and TAF is available enroute so even if destination goes down early I can land early and rent a car.  

2. Widespread low ceilings are generally indicative of fairly stable conditions so TAF likely is ok. 

3. I assumed I could arrive at destination with 3+ hours fuel remaining.  So I can fly an approach, go missed and make the VFR alternate with 1+ hour fuel reserve 

4. 1 mile and 400' in calm winds is ok for ILS or LPV approach in my Mooney

5. Weather is warm at surface, and my plane is FIKI so some ice in cloud tops as I descend is acceptable and I could climb back on top if MAP required

 

Or I could just send a nice wreath. 

 

 

 

 

 

[bnicolette]

2 hours ago, 201er said:

Are you FIKI?

Well, no I'm not FIKI but have boots on all surfaces, alky props and windshield, heated fuel vent, heated stall vane and pitot heat of course.  Also, have onboard radar for #4 scenario which was a go for me.  Not sure it would be without the radar, but I'm used to having radar so not having it would really dampen my go no/go on that scenario.

Edited April 9, 2016 by bnicolette

[gsxrpilot]

7 hours ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

#5 was a Go for me.  I figured:

1. With XM and ADS-B onboard the METAR and TAF is available enroute so even if destination goes down early I can land early and rent a car.  

2. Widespread low ceilings are generally indicative of fairly stable conditions so TAF likely is ok. 

3. I assumed I could arrive at destination with 3+ hours fuel remaining.  So I can fly an approach, go missed and make the VFR alternate with 1+ hour fuel reserve 

4. 1 mile and 400' in calm winds is ok for ILS or LPV approach in my Mooney

5. Weather is warm at surface, and my plane is FIKI so some ice in cloud tops as I descend is acceptable and I could climb back on top if MAP required

I'm with Jerry on this. Very stable conditions, and ILS usually means a nice big runway. I don't have any problem shooting that down to the minimums. And I'll still have plenty of fuel to go somewhere else.

[Jeff_S]

Is this what you think about on a Caribbean vacation?

[Bob - S50]

On 4/8/2016 at 2:33 PM, 201er said:

I would like to pose some weather scenarios for you to consider. It's easy to sit at home and be overly wise until you're actually under the gun making a decision. So let's say the situation is that you have to attend a relative's funeral you just learned about. It's too far to drive in time, impossible to get an airline ticket because you're going from small town to small town, and there's no time to postpone. The only way to make it is if you make the decision to launch. You have several others on board and being there is even more important to them than to you. For each of the following weather scenarios would you go or not? Consider your capabilities and your specific airplane's as well as the reasoning behind your decisions.


Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

#1 No-Go.  Too much wind and too much turbulence for my passengers.

#2 Go.  IF the destination has an approach that is at least 200-1/2 better than the forecast weather.

#3  No-Go.  Likely icing.

#4  No-Go?  Take a look at radar on line and look for current location and movement.  I will not try to pick my way between storms.  If it looks like I can easily go around it then I might give it a try but be spring loaded to a 180 and go home.

#5  No-Go?  Depends.  Is the current weather better or worse than the forecast for right now?  If it's worse then I stay home.  If it's better and I can put enough gas on board along with all my passengers to make it to a reasonable alternate then I might consider it.  However, if the forecast has weather being down so low we can't come home afterward, then I'll probably stay home anyway.

[Yooper Rocketman]

#1  No.  I landed the BE26T in crosswinds not a lot less than that and don't desire to do that again (med flight).

#2 Yes

#3 No,  I have TKS in Mooney, FIKI on the Bo, but I won't launch in weather lower than minimums for the airport.  You may have to return quickly.

#4 Maybe, I would assess all factors, but only if I can remain in VMC near the thunderstorms.  I don't fly IMC near thunderstorms.  Too many variables and I can't visually steer clear of them

#5 Maybe, but probably not.  

I know I apply tighter standards on my go / no go decisions when they are based on a "I need to get there" flight.  It's easier to say "no, it's not safe to make the flight" when you are on the ground, than to be subjected to the added pressure once you launch.  I don't doubt my ability to "make the right call", I just don't care to put myself in that scenario in the first place.  I've spent far too many hours searching for lost pilot friends and their airplanes.  Almost always a day or two later in beautiful weather.  Always seems the funeral is on a nice day after one of those.

Tom

[Amelia]

1. nope. My favorite passenger is far too motion sickness-prone for the turbulence that would entail, and that much crosswind would be more of a challenge than I'd enjoy.

2. I'd go.

3. Once upon a time I'd have said sure. That is why they taught us the zero/zero takeoff, right? BTDT. Survived.. That was before my exhaust system sprang a bad leak on takeoff. If it hadn't been VFR, I might not have made it back, with burning fiberglass filling cabin with acrid smoke. So now if I can't shoot an approach to return promptly when things go badly wrong, I don't take off. Older, yes. Wiser, maybe, but surely more timid.

4. I'd go, for sure, wth onboard weather and good alternates. As previously noted, sounds like a typical summer day in LA. (Lower Alabama)

5. No. That sounds like a sure chance to spend the night in some fleabag hotel a long way from home or destination. Meh. 

 

So here's one for you: Sunday morning phone call this past February, summoning us from NE NC to Mobile, Al. My mother has breathed her last at 93, after a long illness. Everybody is going to be there, good, good people. ASOS at EDE wind 260/15 Temp 45, dew point  40, ceiling ovc 4300, tops way up. Light rain. Temps aloft 42 at 3000, 34 at 6000. Clearing 120 miles south, nice enough the rest of the way. The funeral is Tuesday afternoon. Monday forecast is horrible, probably unflyable here. Supposed to be OK all the way home on Wednesday, maybe. Do I launch? Of course. Right away, as conditions are expected to deteriorate here. Plan is to stay low, beneath the clouds all the way to warmer and clearer 45 minutes southwest of here. Return early Wednesday for Thursday predawn commercial flight from BWI to HI to begin to settle recently deceased MIL's estate. Sigh. It was a hard month for the great grandmothers.

So off we took. Climb out  in light chop, ceilings at least 1400 feet above us, But oddly, OAT at 2500 was 38.  We were 20 miles from home, headed southwest in reasonable VFR, but best not punch into those leaden clouds. We put off picking up the IFR clearance in order to stay low. Suddenly the rest of the flight plan was made for us, as thick mixed ice coated the windshield and leading edges. Nope. 180 time! Max defrost heat. Pitot heat already on. Descend to slightly warmer over the cotton fields and swamp, head for home. Ice melts, landing uneventful, excuses to family made. Light fire in fireplace, think fun memories of dear old lady. My dear siblings buried Mama quite handily without my supervision, on a very cold and windy gulf coast winter day.

 

[Danb]

Great move Amelia, seems like mine.

[garlint]

All no goes for this non IR pilot. When in doubt chicken out.

[kortopates]

Great story Amelia, but you left me curious of the details between headed VFR south at 2500' and at least 1400' below the bases and suddenly thick mixed ice! Did you hit much lower ceilings or climb up for your IFR clearance or maybe I missed something; especially since you mention a descent too. Good move though and sorry for your loss.

Btw, don't forget the prop heat although I am sure you didn't.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Marauder]

Great story Amelia, but you left me curious of the details between headed VFR south at 2500' and at least 1400' below the bases and suddenly thick mixed ice! Did you hit much lower ceilings or climb up for your IFR clearance or maybe I missed something; especially since you mention a descent too. Good move though and sorry for your loss.

Btw, don't forget the prop heat although I am sure you didn't.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My bet was freezing rain. Had that happen once and it gets your attention in a hurry.

[Amelia]

Must have been tiny super-cooled water droplets in very light mist, (not rain), because the OAT was well above freezing. I leveled off at 2500, the bases were at about 42-4500, at least ten miles of visibility, and wham! Where'd that come from!?! I thought I could get away with it if I stayed well below what would surely be icy, but was prepared to pull the plug on the trip if it got ugly.  And sure enough, It got ugly, uglier than forecast by a good margin. . And yes, the prop heat was on. Sure was glad those boots got fixed earlier in the year.

It was OK, though. I'd already spent a week earlier visiting with my mother, who had run completely out of fun in her world, and my local siblings, knew she didn't have long. We will all gather at the beach this summer and tell stories in much better weather.

[wishboneash]

1-NO, 2-YES, 3-Maybe, 4-NO, 5-NO

1 - winds are terrible. 3 - not sure if a VOR approach will get me under the ceiling (if there is an LPV approach, maybe). 4 seems risky to me, conditions could be worse than predicted and don't want to get into something me/my plane can handle. Seems like for 5, it is the best airport/runways/equipment in that area given the conditions. What makes one think other airports nearby are likely to be any better or easier to land at?

If there is more than a 50% chance I can't make it and would have to divert, I won't go.

[jlunseth]

1.  No.  You would make it a more challenging question for us turbo guys if there is an opposing runway, so no tailwind on takeoff.   If I am in a mountain valley like the Angelfire accident, no way.

2.  This one got me.  When I read it I was thinking 25F which is a no go for me, ice.  If its C, yah fer sure.

3.   No.  Ice and probably a risk of SLD near the tops.  A look at the SkewTLogP could change it though.  Often with a fairly low overcast there is also a temp inversion so it is possible freezing conditions do not occur until out of the clouds.  I would need to be pretty sure of that though.  Even if FIKI (which I am not) I don't think I would try that one because of the risk of SLD for the last couple thousand feet through the cloud bank.  I spent ten seconds in freezing rain in a cloud top once and don't want to spend two seconds in it again.  

4.  Sure.  I have weather on the panel so I can see if something is moving in on the field well ahead.  I have, on occasion, slowed down enroute just to give a small cell a chance to clear and there is plenty of time to figure out a good alternate.  Good time to go way LOP and save some fuel.

5.  No chance.  Good time to sit by the fire and read a book.

 

[Cruiser]

On 4/8/2016 at 5:33 PM, 201er said:

Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.
Nope, never done it before don't plan to either.
Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.
Yes, FIKI prepped and switched on at takeoff.
Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.
Since it is my home field, Yes. I know the area. 
Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.
Yes
Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

Yes, if I have reserves to make it to alternates.

 

[glafaille]

On April 8, 2016 at 4:33 PM, 201er said:

Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.  Nope.  Normally aspirated airplane, 3 pax, 9500ft DA.

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.  Go, assuming temps are C.

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.  No go.  low vis and low overcast, chance of ice if temps are in C, no de-ice/anti-ice gear.

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.  Go.  Typical summer day in East Texas.  Going to be a bumpy ride down low, how high are the tops?

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.  No way Jose!  If temp is C no problem with ice but Vis too low, ceiling too low, forecast worse, no decent alternate.  Might go in a Learjet, take lots of fuel!

 

[ArtVandelay]

Why are some of you assuming the temperatures are in Fahrenheit?  With ATIS, METARs, TAFs, winds aloft temperatures normally in Celsius? I assume the WX reported by OP is aviation weather.

[Marauder]

Why are some of you assuming the temperatures are in Fahrenheit?  With ATIS, METARs, TAFs, winds aloft temperatures normally in Celsius? I assume the WX reported by OP is aviation weather.

Probably the same reason some thing speed is MPH.

[Hank]

5 hours ago, teejayevans said:

Why are some of you assuming the temperatures are in Fahrenheit?  With ATIS, METARs, TAFs, winds aloft temperatures normally in Celsius? I assume the WX reported by OP is aviation weather.

Because my OAT, EGT, CHT and Oil Temp are all in F, but for some reason my Carb Temp gage is in C . . . Even the Performance Charts in my Owners Manual tell the change in % Power based on deviation from Standard Temps in F, too.

[201er]

I skipped adding my own take on it so that you all would have a chance to interpret it for yourselves. But now here's my thinking. And remember, there is no right answer because each of our planes' and own capabilities vary! I don't think a single one of these scenarios is potential against any specific regs but perhaps they could all be a violation of 91.13 depending who you ask!

Given a very pressing reason to fly and push myself to the max of my normal safety envelope, here's my take:

On 4/8/2016 at 5:33 PM, 201er said:

Scenario 1 - Destination easy VFR. Departure wind 280@33 gust to 47, sky clear. Runway is 17 and 8000ft long. You have 4 on board. Oh and field elevation is 8000ft and DA of 9500.

No way! This is a disaster waiting to happen in every possible way. That is too much crosswind anyway. But then you have the factor of being at gross weight at 9500ft! At that kind of altitude at gross weight, I can only climb about 300fpm as it is. How the heck can you manage being so underpowered, so heavy, and deal with some severe gusts? You got nothing to push through with.

This condition is based on a true story involving a Mooney (E Model if I remember right) written up in the recent AOPA magazine.

Scenario 2 - Departure easy VFR but destination is winds calm, 5 mile visibility, 1000 overcast, temperature 25 dewpoint 21. No changes expected, alternates available.

Definite go. This is just easy IFR. Now if I weren't instrument current, extremely fatigued, or had other reasons not to fly, I might reconsider. But under all normal circumstances this is a safe go.

Scenario 3 - Destination easy VFR. Departure is uncontrolled field with 4000ft runway with a VOR approach. Wind calm, visibility 1sm, 300 overcast tops 7000, light rain, mist temperature 9 dew point 7. Weather goes VFR 100 miles enroute.

No Go. Many of you were uncomfortable with the low IFR takeoff. With a reasonable departure alternate I'm fine with that. It could just as well be 800 overcast where a VOR approach back to the same airport were possible, if you can fly the approach back, you can probably fly it elsewhere. Or, you're SOL either way. My far bigger concern is icing. With the low temps and high tops, there is a strong likelihood. Without clear evidence of no-icing (pireps, lack of airmet, and known temps aloft), I would not go.

Scenario 4 - Departure easy VFR but destination has a convective sigmet outlook, 30% probability of thunderstorms, TAF winds 220@14 Gusts 21 visibility 6+ Broken 4000CB. Runway is 33 and good alternates are inconvenient but available.

Go. Winds are tough but manageable. Destination is VFR. Might have to navigate around thunderstorms but would expect to be able to do it with ADSB, Stormscope, and ATC radar.

Scenario 5 - Departure is easy VFR but destination is wind calm, 1sm visibility, 400 overcast, temp 21 dew point 19. Forecasting to go down to 100 overcast and into RVRs 30 minutes after your ETA. Destination has a big runway with ILS, no significant terrain. All surrounding airports have similar weather or worse. Nearest VFR alternate is 300 miles away.

Go. Not for sure, but probably a go. We never discussed the length of the trip, but given the long range capability of my Mooney with extended range tanks, under many circumstances I can fly to a destination and back to my departure with the amount of fuel I carry! So if my passenger load is light enough to allow me fuel to the destination, alternate, and still plenty to spare, I'd go. And by alternate, I mean some place in the VFR zone 300 miles out. I would not pick an alternate that is close to minimums with those conditions. This type of weather is fairly stationary so wouldn't expect things to change too much. So if I could get enough fuel, I would fly there, try an approach, try a few more times, and then get out of there. Without enough fuel to make it to VFR conditions with reserve, I wouldn't go.

 

[carusoam]

Mike, this just fell out of your pocket.  Do you want it back?  

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Hmmmm,   FIKI O would be a great beach going machine for me and my family........

Turbo O, I mean Acclaim,. Or is that a FIKI Acclaim, would be best for my next Artic trip...

-S. Pants-

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On a more serious note.... Thanks for putting this discussion up.

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Yooper Rocketman]

One thing is evident (and a good thing).  The opinions vary based on aircraft and equipment. on scenario one I was more concerned with the crosswind than the DA and airport altitude.  I've done 4 passengers in pretty warm weather, but we had 2 healthy guys and two petite ladies, AND with 305 HP and a turbo, this is a bit different that a NA Mooney.  

The potential for icing in scenario 3 was concerning for many, but again, with TKS and a turbo, as long as I can get above it in a reasonable time it's not a show stopper unless reported is an issue.  The Rocket would be on top in 5 minutes. Those without deice answered exactly as I did when I owned my F.

I would be more concerned about flying in IMC near thunderstorms.  I know of at LEAST two planes and crews that ATC ran right through convective activity and they are no longer with us.  Just my take here, but I look at storm scopes, ADS-B and ATC as aids to flying near TS's, while my eyes are primary, and if I can't see them, I am not getting any where near them.

Tom