Hurricane Irma

[HRM]

9-4-2017 @ 18:45 CST

[Amelia]

Not that we will be out of the woods here in coastal NC, but if by some stroke of luck, Edenton, NC looks like a safer place to hunker down, we have bedrooms for some, food for whoever shows up, and maybe some hangar space.

[co2bruce]

We all have an eye on this storm, but look how the prediction has changed in the last 3-4 days. She is still a week from landfall, and these predictions will change again. All that said don't take your eye off her, and if you are flying out do it earlier rather than later 

[Mooneymite]

I have room in my hangar for one "Irma-refugee-Mooney" here south of Atlanta and room for other tie-downs.   GA04....long, wide turf runway. 

ATL is a 35 minute drive.

[Raptor05121]

She is now a Cat 5 with an all-time low of 926mb and dropping rapidly

[aviatoreb]

Category 5 - wow - some reports are saying 185mph sustained winds.  Think about it - that is just shy of 160knots.  A well rigged M20J in full cruise - if you put your hand out the window - that is what it would feel like in a 185mph hurricane.

[Oldguy]

Well, the extra space in my hangar is being taken by a friend moving his 1943 WW II trainer up here, but we have several open hangars at the airport here here in central Alabama. I am located in Pell City which is on I-20 about 15 miles east of Birmingham. A direct flight is also available from KBHM back to KTPA and KMCO on Southwest if you want to drop off and head back to get more people, pets or possessions.

Also, if you are crazy enough to have a horse or two, we can put those up as well. PM me if you need any more information.

[Piloto]

Looking at the wind field it looks to me that Irma will follow a westerly path south of Cuba and Hispaniola rather than going along the Bahamas. Irma has been going west for the last two days. After passing south of Havana it will start turning north.

José 

[flyboy0681]

21 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Category 5 - wow - some reports are saying 185mph sustained winds.  Think about it - that is just shy of 160knots.  A well rigged M20J in full cruise - if you put your hand out the window - that is what it would feel like in a 185mph hurricane.

Not many people can appreciate what "sustained winds" are. When typical storm blows through, be it a thunderstorm, snowstorm, or even a trough, the wind blows then die down a bit, picks up and then dies down again. Now imagine 175mph winds blowing constantly for hours without letting up for a minute, except for when the eye passes over, at which time it's calm and a blue sky can be seen looking straight up.

 

 

[ArtVandelay]

1 hour ago, Piloto said:

Looking at the wind field it looks to me that Irma will follow a westerly path south of Cuba and Hispaniola rather than going along the Bahamas. Irma has been going west for the last two days. After passing south of Havana it will start turning north.

José 

Looks like you picked a low altitude, I think a higher (FL180 at least or higher), I don't think low altitude winds have that much steering effect.

BTW, Irma's little brother is now TS Jose.....congrats Jose

[fantom]

This should clear everything up:

[fantom]

The fifth largest/strongest Atlantic hurricane ever.

[steingar]

8 minutes ago, fantom said:

The fifth largest/strongest Atlantic hurricane ever.

And may it stay in the Atlantic.

[aviatoreb]

49 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

Not many people can appreciate what "sustained winds" are. When typical storm blows through, be it a thunderstorm, snowstorm, or even a trough, the wind blows then die down a bit, picks up and then dies down again. Now imagine 175mph winds blowing constantly for hours without letting up for a minute, except for when the eye passes over, at which time it's calm and a blue sky can be seen looking straight up.

 

 

I don't think that is what is meant by the phrase "sustained winds" when referring to a hurricane.  I think 185mph sustained (which is the number I just heard quoted for this storm), is as opposed to a gust peak number. Like when you see at your home airport 23G28 then that 28 is the peak of a gust speed.

Hurricanes are only their strongest near the eye wall.  SO I would presume over a few hours as the wall is bearing down toward you that gradually the sustained wind speed would grow and grow.

[flyboy0681]

28 minutes ago, steingar said:

And may it stay in the Atlantic.

From your lips...

[Hank]

47 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I don't think that is what is meant by the phrase "sustained winds" when referring to a hurricane.  I think 185mph sustained (which is the number I just heard quoted for this storm), is as opposed to a gust peak number. Like when you see at your home airport 23G28 then that 28 is the peak of a gust speed.

Hurricanes are only their strongest near the eye wall.  SO I would presume over a few hours as the wall is bearing down toward you that gradually the sustained wind speed would grow and grow.

From the Nat'l Hurricane Center:

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.1 West. Irma is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph (295
km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is an extremely dangerous category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but
Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 926 mb (27.34 inches).

And much more . . . This is gonna be a bad one. They're calling for 7-11 foot storm surge through the Virgin Islands, PR and the north shore of Dom Rep and Haiti.

[steingar]

27 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

From your lips...

I hope I'm not being misinterpreted.  I'd prefer to see a monster like that stay out at sea rather than make landfall and hurt people.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, fantom said:

This should clear everything up:

@Raptor05121, you still looking for a hidey hole? We have hangar space to squeeze in one Mooney, maybe two, and lots of ramp space (bring your tie downs).

Lower Alabama, northeast of Montgomery, 41A. Let me know if that's far enough away for you. We have one spare bedroom, a day bed and an airbed if necessary.  

[Raptor05121]

Right now I hope the Post Office can outrun a hurricane. My new oil cooler is on its way. Coming from Atlanta area. If I do move her, I have to drive back. If our EOC is activated, I'm the head honcho for Fire/EMS dispatching and I'll likely be working and sleeping overnight. The last storm we had come through I had about 50-75 calls on my screen (daily average is about 5 at any one time) and I was so tied up there was a 10 minute delay before I could even get units paged out to fires.

[gsxrpilot]

54 minutes ago, Raptor05121 said:

Right now I hope the Post Office can outrun a hurricane. My new oil cooler is on its way. Coming from Atlanta area. If I do move her, I have to drive back. If our EOC is activated, I'm the head honcho for Fire/EMS dispatching and I'll likely be working and sleeping overnight. The last storm we had come through I had about 50-75 calls on my screen (daily average is about 5 at any one time) and I was so tied up there was a 10 minute delay before I could even get units paged out to fires.

If it's not there in time, add two extra quarts and fly her out!

[BKlott]

3 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

If it's not there in time, add two extra quarts and fly her out!

I wouldn't recommend that. If your oil cooler blows...yes, it can happen, it happened to me...you will have a forced landing in your IMMEDIATE future. I was lucky. Mine cut loose during a ground run to test for leaks following an oil change. Oil went all over the place.

[mike_elliott]

Making the call on Thurs...now which plane...OK decision made, the one who's policy pays for hurricane location!

[peevee]

Man this is looking really bad.

[gsxrpilot]

There are certainly room for airplanes here in central Texas. I know it's a long way from Florida, but that might be just what you want.

On another note, I hope Irma doesn't mess up the Mooney Summit coming up in a few weeks.

[Raptor05121]

Pressure continues to drop. Down to 916mb.

The problem is this system IS going to turn North. We have three possibilities: East of FL and going to Carolinas, straight up FL, or the Gulf Coast/Panhandle area. There is a higher pressure system over TX and the jet stream trough is continuously moving north so it has one valley in between