Conspicuously missing from your assumption is that while flu does kill 40,000 Americans per year, if left to spread on its own we could see well over a million Americans dead in the first year with COVID, not 40,000. Also add to the mix what we are seeing going in Italian and Spanish hospitals. We may very well see that even if the curve is flattened, and Americans will be horrified. You may very well find your scenario play out very soon as the president is starting to backpedal on the scientists approach, suggesting that we should come out of hibernation in a week. And reports are that Fauci is on the outs with the administration because he won't clamp down on leveling with the American people and constantly correcting the president.