M10 Cert, Production Plans Clarified

[KSMooniac]

From Avweb today:

 

Mooney says it will certify and build its new M10 trainers at its Chino, California, facility initially, but may also build production capability at the company's long-established Kerrville, Texas, factory. Mooney CEO Jerry Chen told AVweb this week that the company has already worked out the basics of its certification program with the FAA and expects to complete the project sometime in 2017.

Meanwhile, it's also completing work on a facility in Hunan province in China, which was initially envisioned to be an assembly plant for airframe components made in the U.S. However, when asked if primary manufacturing will take place in China, Chen said that depends on demand for the aircraft. "If the demand potential is there, we will have to react," he said.

Mooney announced the two models at the biannual airshow in Zhuhai last month. The M10T will be a three-seat fixed-gear trainer while the M10J will be a step-up retractable with an option for a third seat. Both will be powered by Continental's CD-155 diesel engines. The new aircraft will be primarily of composite construction, but Chen says the company hasn't decided yet whether that work will be done in-house or contracted to other companies.

One promising announcement at Zhuhai is that four companies were given permits for producing 100-octane avgas. And while that's encouraging, Chen says he still has concerns about avgas supply and distribution in China, hence the decision to go with Continental's diesels.

Although demand is expected to be strong in China, the two new models are intended as world aircraft and will be marketed wherever there's demand. Chen says demand in China is an unknown and the bottleneck remains a shortage of qualified pilots, which is why the company is branching into training.  

"After Zhuhai, there's actually a sign the market will open. Operational wise, we still have great difficulties. But I do see operation in China being much easier than a few months ago. So it's actually improving," Chen said.

 

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/New-Mooneys-to-be-US-Built-But-China-Remains-An-Option223197-1.html

 

This is very good news, although being a traditionalist, Texas-homer, etc. I'd much prefer the main fabrication to be done in Texas.  They're crazy to place this in CA... I bet they won't even have permits granted by 2017.    I'm also very skeptical of the timeline, but they won't be the first optimistic bunch to predict a quick design and cert process.  

[kerry]

I visited the Chino airport last week.  Lot of aviation enthusiasm and long term aircraft projects scattered around the airfield.  Reminds me of Mojave, CA airport and Burt Rutan's scaled composite site.  My guess is southern CA has the people with the skills to build plastic airplanes.

[NotarPilot]

I find this news very encouraging.  We live in a global economy and China is an emerging market for GA aircraft.  The wider the market the greater sustainability of the product line such as our beloved Mooneys.  If the Chinese government can only get their proverbial fecal matter together as it pertains to use of Chinese airspace by GA aircraft, I think the industry will really take-off (no pun) there.  There are a lot of new wealthy Chinese people being made today.

[M016576]

Sounds like my theory is coming true... I just hope that "phase three" of my theory never materializes (shuttering the kernville plant / M20 line permanantly as business moves primarily to China).

[BigTex]

I can't see any financial reason Mooney needs to need multiple manufacturing facilities in the US.  In Kerrville, there's more than enough space to support development of a new Mooney.  They have that old abandoned paint shop they could use for composites.  The only reason I see why they are setting up shop in Chino is because Dr. Chen is from California and that's home.  It's also where his Soaring company is based.

 

As for China, I see doing final assembly over there for the Chinese market but not manufacturing.

[N9453V]

Sounds like my theory is coming true... I just hope that "phase three" of my theory never materializes (shuttering the kernville plant / M20 line permanantly as business moves primarily to China).

 

Mooney has invested millions in upgrades at ERV, I think it's very unlikely that they'd do this if they had plans to close ERV.

Also, the M10 is positioned as a trainer and entry level plane, they need something for those pilots to upgrade to.

 

-Andrew

[jetdriven]

Millions? What kind of product improvement are we talking about? Or what did the spend it on ?

[DaV8or]

Millions? What kind of product improvement are we talking about? Or what did the spend it on ?

 

Millions of Chinese Yuan. About 6 to 1.

[Marauder]

If Mooney behaves like most companies that have Chinese manufacturing (like mine), they will move most of the labor intensive, low risk manufacturing there. That is the main benefit of Chinese manufacturing -- lower your COGS.

The longer term question is their commitment to the existing fleet. Outside of the short term revenue bump supplying parts to us, the cost of carrying inventory for the old design and the liability risk may influence their longer term commitment.

Time will tell...

[triple8s]

I would have figured California would be a very business friendly place to open a manufacturing facility. They should do well.

[bonal]

Despite the efforts of Moon beam Brown and all the high costs of doing business in California we still have the largest economy in the country ( please correct if I'm mistaken ) I remember watching a show on the history channel or discovery about this factory in Long beach that makes the main spars for all the Boings and Airbusses it was very interesting. setting up shop at Chino and revitalizing Kerville seems like a well thought out plan. Southern California has many of the engineering design companies that create all kinds of products that get manufactured elsewhere. I doubt I will ever have the means to afford a new airplane but I'm all about the bigger picture that General aviation continues to survive

[FloridaMan]

I would have figured California would be a very business friendly place to open a manufacturing facility. They should do well.

 

[Danb]

Chris your thoughts are for the China folks to Manu. A lot of the inventory in an effort to lower Cgs and then basically build the planes over here....makes sense until they gain the knowledge to do the complete job there, I m wondering what there aviation controlling body has to do with the process.. Maybe your thought process is the way they need to get planes in the air using out certification measures??

[N601RX]

It would appear so.

http://www.scpr.org/news/2014/10/20/47521/palmdale-county-officials-blast-union-in-fight-ove/

[Parker_Woodruff]

I really do wonder why no one steps up and buys the Cessna 172 type certificate from Textron/Cessna and starts mass producing these airplanes looking toward the China Aviation boom.  The C172 is about the greatest multi-tasking airplane out there.  Textron can't be making that much money from their line of piston airplanes...

 

The unfortunate reality is we have too many piston single airplanes fragmenting General Aviation.  There are too many LSA manufacturers all making 8 airplanes per year.  Economies of scale and great profits just aren't possible in the current scenario.

 

But for Chinese, American, and [insert nation here] flight schools, it seems like the best idea is to go with a proven airframe.

[Danb]

Parker I woul be surprised if there haven't been negotiating done we're not aware of..

[DonMuncy]

Jetdriven,

The new owners have invested in many new machines for the factory, some of which were not even unpacked and installed in April 2014.

If you saw the factory before and after their acquisition, you would hardly believe it. They have probably spent a million $ in lighting alone. They have installed all new LED fixtures and the look is astounding. 

[M016576]

Mooney has invested millions in upgrades at ERV, I think it's very unlikely that they'd do this if they had plans to close ERV.

Also, the M10 is positioned as a trainer and entry level plane, they need something for those pilots to upgrade to.

-Andrew

I think that "something" you speak of will be a "M30"- a composite high performance traveller... Or maybe even something with a turbine. Just my theory....

[Piloto]

I have never met a Chinese plane owner, but a lot Hispanic plane owners (three are hangar neighbors). You would think that would be much easier to own and fly a plane by a Chinese in the US than in China. For the Chinese just to use the G1000 they will need to learn English which is very different than Chinese (there is no spelling alphabet but over 2,000 non phonetic symbols).

 

José

[Ned Gravel]

I think that "something" you speak of will be a "M30"- a composite high performance traveller... Or maybe even something with a turbine. Just my theory....

Too late.  That one already exists. TBM (now at the 950 level I believe).

[ryoder]

I have never met a Chinese plane owner, but a lot Hispanic plane owners (three are hangar neighbors). You would think that would be much easier to own and fly a plane by a Chinese in the US than in China. For the Chinese just to use the G1000 they will need to learn English which is very different than Chinese (there is no spelling alphabet but over 2,000 non phonetic symbols).

 

José

The school I trained at had a 141 operation that relied heavily on Chinese students that they took care of. These kids couldn't have been over 21 and had housing, transportation, and remedial English training provided. They even had a bus with custom signage on it just for this part of the operation called kitty hawk academy. Apparently it's hard to train in China so they come here. I also hear a lot more Chinese accents on the airwaves than you would think.

[aviatoreb]

Too late.  That one already exists. TBM (now at the 950 level I believe).

 

Not necessarily.  The TBM950 is a fabulous airplane.  I got to sit on one (on the ground) that was so new it still had the plastic on the seats and the new car smell.

 

It is a somewhat bigger airplane than a M20.  And lots more expensive at $3M+.  I bet there would be a market segment for a 5 or 6 seater that is not much bigger than a M20 but pressurized and turbine and much cheaper - The recent SR22 allows 5 people with 3 in the back - that seems a nice sized airplane with options but mostly a much smaller airplane.  Could such an airplane be made for $1M+?  That would make a real market segment, except seeing that the Lancair EVO is essentially as I just described and it is north of $1M even as an experimental, likely my price idea for the concept is unrealistic.  If I had $1M+ today burning a hole in my pocket, maybe I would get a EVO.

[carusoam]

Erik,

We're going to need a third job...

Not just another job...

http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/LANCAIR-EVOLUTION/2011-LANCAIR-EVOLUTION/1288945.htm

Best regards,

-a-

[Piloto]

The school I trained at had a 141 operation that relied heavily on Chinese students that they took care of. These kids couldn't have been over 21 and had housing, transportation, and remedial English training provided. They even had a bus with custom signage on it just for this part of the operation called kitty hawk academy. Apparently it's hard to train in China so they come here. I also hear a lot more Chinese accents on the airwaves than you would think.

 

Encouraging but how many were airplane owners? Most of the foreign students are learning to fly as a career but not to purchase an airplane. What Mooney needs is buyers. 

 

Have you ask how come GA flying is more popular in Australia than in China. After all Australia has only 22M inhabitants vs 1.2B in China. And China is older than Australia by several thousand years. And how come in the Americas the most popular languages are English and Spanish but not Chinese. The root reason for this is in the DNA. Western Europeans (England, Spain, Portugal) were curious about what lies beyond the sea horizon. But other much older cultures such as those in Africa had no interest in travelling beyond the coast lines. Those that ventured beyond the horizon left their footprints in the form of language and religion. And also left their exploration DNA factor in their offspring. So it is natural for those descendant of these explorers to seek and enjoy travelling. And there is a big difference in travelling by airline vs on your own plane alone over the ocean, "the explorer DNA factor". My two cents of anthropology analysis.

 

José 

[aviatoreb]

Erik,

We're going to need a third job...

Not just another job...

http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/LANCAIR-EVOLUTION/2011-LANCAIR-EVOLUTION/1288945.htm

Best regards,

-a-

 

Sweet!