Factory Closed Down?

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, toto said:

It will be nice when BRS offers a Mooney retrofit. 

As long as there isn't a parachute option, we stay on the rhetorical merry-go-round. 

As soon as there *is* a parachute option, we can go back to debating the best way to spend $25k on an airplane.

Kicking around the relative safety benefit of a $25k BRS retrofit vs a $25k autopilot retrofit with envelope protection might be interesting. 

It would be 40-50k but I doubt with our style of landing gear...

Edited November 15, 2019 by aviatoreb

[Austintatious]

2 hours ago, toto said:

It will be nice when BRS offers a Mooney retrofit. 

As long as there isn't a parachute option, we stay on the rhetorical merry-go-round. 

As soon as there *is* a parachute option, we can go back to debating the best way to spend $25k on an airplane.

Kicking around the relative safety benefit of a $25k BRS retrofit vs a $25k autopilot retrofit with envelope protection might be interesting. 

If it was me, I'd go with the AP every time.

 

The number of scenarios where I want parachute is very very small.

[FloridaMan]

On 11/13/2019 at 12:00 PM, aviatoreb said:

Not me - I like used airplanes.  If I wanted a Cirrus I would buy a used Cirrus.  If I had $300k for a used airplane I might buy a used newer best at price point Mooney but if I wanted a Cirrus I would buy the best at price point Cirrus.  But I would buy a Mooney.  But if I had $800k budget I would buy best at price point available used TBM or maybe PA46.  Seems like 800k is used turbine money.  But that is me.

Many people like new - or business want new.  Anyway then new pistons in this class are 800k.  If that is it I would have wanted a new Ultra.  Or I would be dreaming of 4M for a new TBM.

...but if I had 4M I would be buying a used Phenom.

Paging @cujet to the courtesy phone to explain the economics of new airplanes. 

[BKlott]

5 hours ago, GeorgePerry said:

This is my last post and them I promise to drift back into obscurity again.  I initially commented because I was so disappointed with Mooney's leadership back in 2014 when they were flush with Chinese cash that they didn't do the thing that would have almost certainly made them competitive again; Increase useful load and install a BRS.  Instead the CEO dismissed my counsel and went a different direction.  I am largely lamenting at what "could have been" if he'd only listened.  Sucks b/c I'd loved it if Mooney could have evolved into a competitive manufacturer that could compete head to head with Cirrus.  They didn't and the rest is history.  

Now Cirrus is the only "real" choice in the HP SE piston market place.  I'm I in love with its looks...No.  Am I in love with the way it "hand" flys...No.  Is is the best option when weighing a variety of factors (Safety, Speed, UL, Price, Supportability, Comfort, Spouse peace of mind) Yep.  

All that being said, I wish Mooney had gotten their act together so "some day" I might have the option to come back to the brand.  With this weeks announcement chances are that'll never happen.

I recently took some dual in a SR20 to try it out and greatly disliked the control feel. Fighting against the stiff, spring loaded sidestick, particularly in roll control, was NOT enjoyable at all. My wrist was getting sore after .8 hours. I can see why they train going on autopilot after reaching 500 feet and letting the autopilot do the flying for you. Of course, that kind of defeats the purpose of flying light aircraft when you fly for fun in the first place. 

If Cirrus would work on the control feel to make it light and responsive like a Grumman Cheetah, for example, then they may very well have the best all around package ever made. As it is, the control feel is not to my liking and I would not likely ever purchase one for that reason alone. 

Otherwise, the PFD and MFD with all engine parameters displayed were fantastic. The cabin was roomy and comfortable. Visibility was excellent although somewhat impacted by the extra structure required for crashworthiness. It is a tall aircraft so there is a little effort needed to climb up into it. It’s not as easy to get into and out of as, say a Cessna Cardinal. 
  
The SR20 that I flew did not exactly leap off the ground with full fuel and two aboard. Climb performance was not impressive and we were at sea level on a August, summer day. The SR22 would clearly be a better choice for carrying a load or for high altitude operations.

Why anyone would purposely make a light aircraft with such undesirable control feel is beyond my ability to comprehend. Fix THAT and there would be little reason not to want / crave one.

[carusoam]

I wrote a bullet point list of how great a Mooney aviator George is... from a highly modernized M20F to a beyond compare Screamin’ Eagle...

Amongst a very long list of his other aviation and management accomplishments... that would make Maverick jealous... (really!)

Unfortunately, MS ate my post as I was looking for that final detail....

 

What was that detail, that was so important...

What could a forum of Mooney pilots do for a great aviator that has everything...

 

Somebody needs to find some fancy clothes for that naked bird...

Can we embark on selecting a proper paint scheme for George’s Screamin’ Chicken?

Happy veteran’s day George!
 

May you never need to use that chute.

 

https://www.schemedesigners.com/samples/
 

the scheme designer site requires buttons to be pushed...

Find a scheme worthy of a Navy F18 plane/pilot...

Best regards,

-a-

[RogueOne]

7 hours ago, GeorgePerry said:

My airplane was sold new (with TKS installed) with 1192 pounds UL.  Aftermarket AC brought it down some but the prop change (MT composite) brought it back up.  No doubt cost is a big factor.  A good SR22 starts at 200K and goes up from there.  I recently entered into a 2 way partnership.  Its working out really well and that's made ownership costs very manageable.  I've done two annuals, and both have been under 5K at Cirrus Service Centers, not an independent shop.  Knock on wood, but nothing's broken and its been extremely reliable.  Probably because I fly it alot. 

Meh.  Under 85k and I will whip your arse on speeed.  Naval aviator should know that this is where it is at.  Glad you are happy that you have moved on.  I could not be more happy with my decision to go Mooney.

[brndiar]

Some point to think of:

In 2015, the fatal rate was at a historic low of 0.92/100,000 flight hours and in 2016, the most recent year for which reliable data is available, it inched down further to 0.80.

source: https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/nall-report-ga-fatal-accident-rate-continues-to-fall/

Current accident rates in a Cirrus

0.95 fatal accidents in 12 months

Per 100,000 hours of flying time in past 12 months (9 accidents* in 950,000 hours)

0.92 fatal accidents in 36 months

Per 100,000 hours of flying time in past 36 months (25 accidents* in 2.7 million hours)

https://www.cirruspilots.org/copa/safety_programs/w/safety_pages/720.caps-saves-and-fatal-accidents.aspx?1

 

.... Just Statistic...

m

 

 

 

[DXB]

1 hour ago, brndiar said:

Some point to think of:

In 2015, the fatal rate was at a historic low of 0.92/100,000 flight hours and in 2016, the most recent year for which reliable data is available, it inched down further to 0.80.

source: https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/nall-report-ga-fatal-accident-rate-continues-to-fall/

Current accident rates in a Cirrus

0.95 fatal accidents in 12 months

Per 100,000 hours of flying time in past 12 months (9 accidents* in 950,000 hours)

0.92 fatal accidents in 36 months

Per 100,000 hours of flying time in past 36 months (25 accidents* in 2.7 million hours)

https://www.cirruspilots.org/copa/safety_programs/w/safety_pages/720.caps-saves-and-fatal-accidents.aspx?1

 

.... Just Statistic...

m

 

 

 

I suspect the fatal accident rate for piston singles is somewhat higher than for GA as a whole?  I don’t know that for a fact and couldn’t find the breakdown based on a quick search.  But it would be most fair to compare Cirrus to other piston single makes with a similar mission profile (e.g. Mooney).

[RonM]

I am the original owner of a 1991 MSE / 1997 Missile Conversion. I have owned the airplane 28 years and hope to keep flying it for another 11 years. I hope I can still get parts. Mooney has been out of business before and I have kept flying. I think you will always be able to get what parts U need - but maybe at a very expensive price. Will someone make "after market" parts if necessary? There are still a lot of Mooneys out there. Any commentary welcome. I love my Mooney more than ever - and if it becomes a classic collectible - so be it.

[Urs_Wildermuth]

Guys, please take a step back and look at it from the point of view that there is a reason Mooney only sold only a small number of airplanes this year whereas Cirrus sells 200. And not only Mooney, also Piper and Cessna don't sell anywhere in that class. The reason is so obvious, it is not worth discussing anymore.

Lots of us have parnters and possibly kids. Many of them do not like to fly in small planes and do it just to please us. Many do not fly in small planes at all, marriages have broken over this, lots of them. People generally are afraid of flying, this includes a fair share of low time pilots too.

Now comes along a company which makes airplanes which have the one solution every 3 year old "knows" is the rescue from any plane in trouble. That company soars to become the only manufacturer turning out any reasonable number. What more do you need to be clear on the why?

Yes, it is the "anxious wife" effect but not only. Safety conciousnes has massively changed over the last decades or so. Daredevils were yesterday. Today, people don't look at private pilots, motorcycle riders and high mountain climbers as heros but quite few as stupid people who do not know what is good for them. In this climate, a parashute equipped plane is the only answer many anxious pilots, wifes and companies will ALLOW to be brought into their household.

Believe me, I have coached quite a few first time owners in recent years. 80% of those who ask me about an airplane are 40-50 year old family people. My first question ALWAYS is, does your wife approve? 90% of those I meet will grow red faced and say "she does not know I am here". Of those, maybe 1 in 50 buys a plane afterwards, but if there is cash available for a Cirrus, I'd say the chances a reluctant wife will agree is maybe 1 in 10 instead.

Those are facts of life. The time when a Lamborghini parked in the front yard got girls interested is long gone, at least here. It's responsible driving in a massive safe car by now. For a long time, people with kids bought even cars with crash worthiness in mind, that is what Volvo used to make a living of. It's the time of airbags, fines for not wearing seat belts and insurances which include broken nails. So it is also the time for single engine planes with parashutes.

Mooney had the chance with the M10, it had the chance to get into a really good market with the Mooney 301 but it missed out on both, even tough the 301 lives on in the TBM.

This has nothing to do with my own love for my C-Model, which is unchanged, even though I have to admit that with the prospect of having my 3 year old fly in it, I wish I could afford that shute. Call me a whimp, but that is just what it is. Most probably my family will not fly with me ever again, as too many accidents in recent years, too many people lost and too much confidence particularly in our engines shattered by mounting numbers of reports of SEP's which come to grief because those WW2 relics up front, many 30 years old or more, will stop in flight and leave those without a shute left to find that flat piece of ground.

My own prediction will be that while the market has decided already, the FAA and EASA will eventually follow and mandate BRS on SEP airplanes which need to carry passengers. Those companies who by then have not gotten their act together, will simply be relegated to history. Similarily, either the aviation industry finally makes a leap in technology and brings up up to date engines and finally stops living in the 1950ties, only because it is no longer financially viable to certify new planes. And either that changes or certified aviation will simply die out.

[Bob_Belville]

1 hour ago, Urs_Wildermuth said:

 

Yes, it is the "anxious wife" effect but not only. Safety conciousnes has massively changed over the last decades or so. Daredevils were yesterday. Today, people don't look at private pilots, motorcycle riders and high mountain climbers as heros but quite few as stupid people who do not know what is good for them. In this climate, a parashute equipped plane is the only answer many anxious pilots, wifes and companies will ALLOW to be brought into their household.

 

Urs, IMNSHO your generalizations are as bad as your spelling/spell check/typing! 

On the occasion of receiving the FAA's longevity award at the recent Mooney Summit I pointed out to that great assembly of safety conscience Mooney pilots, most of whom had their (flying) spouse with them, that my flying "career" began when my young bride, she was 23 at the time, gave me a learn-to-fly starter pack - 2 hours of instruction and a couple of books recommended by the flight school - for Xmas (1968). At the time Nancy was a stay at home mom with our 17 month old daughter. I do not think she'd ever been in any plane smaller than a Martin 404. And I do not believe that Nancy's attitude then and now is unique or even rare. Millions of people would love to fly even though they probably know there's some level of risk. I suspect most folks would be more interested in the pilot's experience than in the airplane's equipment. 

That some other non-pilots have an irrational fear of flying I do not doubt, flying is not everyone's cup of tea. But I don't believe for one minute that a parachute makes a scaredy cat who tenses up whenever there's a little turbulence into a confident passenger ready to take off into a 300' ceiling "knowing" that the 'chute makes everything okay. That's silly. 

Mooney has numerous challenges - sales, marketing, manufacturing, management, cultural issues (TX & China), etc., etc. Exactly zero of their problems would disappear if only their new products have a 'chute.   

[afward]

Just to amplify what Bob is saying: My wife is a nervous flier, and by all indications is precisely the type of spouse Cirrus markets the 'chute to.  She has never expressed an aversion to getting in the plane with me (whether it's our current M20F or the previous B33, PA28, and C172 rentals I had available) if I said I'd like for her to come with.  And the statistics are on her side: with proper maintaince, training, and proficiency, GA is not any more dangerous than driving.

Don't let the steady drip of bad news fool you: GA safety is near the best it's ever been...  The news just does a better job of putting the bad stuff in your face now.

[RogueOne]

1 hour ago, Urs_Wildermuth said:

Guys, please take a step back and look at it from the point of view that there IS a reason Mooney only sold 2 airplanes this year whereas Cirrus sells 200. And not only Mooney, also Piper and Cessna don't sell anywhere in that class. The reason is so obvious, it is not worth discussing anymore.

Lots of us have parnters and possibly kids. Many of them do NOT like to fly in small planes and do it just to please us. Many do not fly in small planes at all, marriages have broken over this, lots of them. People generally are afraid of flying, this includes a fair share of low time pilots too.

Now comes along a company which makes airplanes which have the one solution every 3 year old "knows" is the rescue from any plane in trouble. That company soars to become the only manufacturer turning out any reasonable number. What more do you need to be clear on the why?

Yes, it is the "anxious wife" effect but not only. Safety conciousnes has massively changed over the last decades or so. Daredevils were yesterday. Today, people don't look at private pilots, motorcycle riders and high mountain climbers as heros but quite few as stupid people who do not know what is good for them. In this climate, a parashute equipped plane is the only answer many anxious pilots, wifes and companies will ALLOW to be brought into their household.

Believe me, I have coached quite a few first time owners in recent years. 80% of those who ask me about an airplane are 40-50 year old family people. My first question ALWAYS is, does your wife approve? 90% of those I meet will grow red faced and say "she does not know I am here". Of those, maybe 1 in 50 buys a plane afterwards, but if there is cash available for a Cirrus, I'd say the chances a reluctant wife will agree is maybe 1 in 10 instead.

Those are facts of life. The time when a Lamborghini parked in the front yard got girls interested is long gone, at least here. It's responsible driving in a massive safe car by now. For a long time, people with kids bought even cars with crash worthiness in mind, that is what Volvo used to make a living of. It's the time of airbags, fines for not wearing seat belts and insurances which include broken nails. So it is also the time for single engine planes with parashutes.

Mooney had the chance with the M10, it had the chance to get into a really good market with the Mooney 301 but it missed out on both, even tough the 301 lives on in the TBM.

This has nothing to do with my own love for my C-Model, which is unchanged, even though I have to admit that with the prospect of having my 3 year old fly in it, I wish I could afford that shute. Call me a whimp, but that is just what it is. Most probably my family will not fly with me ever again, as too many accidents in recent years, too many people lost and too much confidence particularly in our engines shattered by mounting numbers of reports of SEP's which come to grief because those WW2 relics up front, many 30 years old or more, will stop in flight and leave those without a shute left to find that flat piece of ground.

My own prediction will be that while the market has decided already, the FAA and EASA will eventually follow and mandate BRS on SEP airplanes which need to carry passengers. Those companies who by then have not gotten their act together, will simply be relegated to history. Similarily, either the aviation industry finally makes a leap in technology and brings up up to date engines and finally stops living in the 1950ties, only because it is no longer financially viable to certify new planes. And either that changes or certified aviation will simply die out.

Whimp.

[aviatoreb]

54 minutes ago, afward said:

Don't let the steady drip of bad news fool you: GA safety is near the best it's ever been...  The news just does a better job of putting the bad stuff in your face now.

It is not quite as safe statistically.

But perception is it is much less safe since we see in the news also all of the GA crashes that happen nationally.  Meanwhile car crashes do not make the news even locally.  In my county, a very large (area) but remote rural county in upstate NY with only 185,000 people, I saw in the obit from the weekly paper that 4 people died in several different car accidents in the county last week.  And people hunt, boat, snow mobile, all with comparable stats and they don't think a thing of it.

[afward]

I did say "near" for a reason.

In fairness, the last 18 months (and really the last several months) have been hard on the stats.  2018 was a good year, 2019 is not going to be.  Of course, there's a lot more flying happening, so per mile or per hour the stats might not be as negatively affected as one might expect.  We'll have to see once the "best estimate" numbers are available.

But you are absolutely right: Humans are terrible at judging relative risk in the face of over-/under-reporting.  That goes doubly-true for individualized risk.

[Aviator]

IMHO

Anyone who believes a four place, single engine airplane manufacturer can compete with Cirrus without a whole plane parachute is kidding themselves.

[Bob_Belville]

7 minutes ago, Aviator said:

IMHO

Anyone who believes a four place, single engine airplane manufacturer can compete with Cirrus without a whole plane parachute is kidding themselves.

Wow, just wow! 

[afward]

16 minutes ago, Aviator said:

IMHO

Anyone who believes a four place, single engine airplane manufacturer can compete with Cirrus without a whole plane parachute is kidding themselves.

While there might be some truth to this, adding BRS to a C182 isn't going to make it a Cirrus killer.  The parachute isn't the only thing Cirrus got right (and this is coming from someone that genuinely hasn't ever really liked the SR2x series).

Adding BRS to the M20 *might* have been enough to make it properly competitive, but realistically the increase in price and empty weight probably would've precluded that possibility.

[Andy95W]

Okay then, for everyone disagreeing with Urs and his "whimpy" comments:

Why exactly did Cirrus outsell Mooney 100:1 this year, despite the fact that it is slower, uglier and flies worse?

[jetdriven]

2 hours ago, Bob_Belville said:

. 

Mooney has numerous challenges - sales, marketing, manufacturing, management, cultural issues (TX & China), etc., etc. Exactly zero of their problems would disappear if only their new products have a 'chute.   

Perhaps an analysis of why Cirrus aircraft outsell Mooney 50:1 is in order. SE piston buyers seem to know something we don’t. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by jetdriven

[jetdriven]

43 minutes ago, Aviator said:

IMHO

Anyone who believes a four place, single engine airplane manufacturer can compete with Cirrus without a whole plane parachute is kidding themselves.

Again it’s 300-+ sales a year vs 14

[Andy95W]

2 hours ago, Bob_Belville said:

Urs, IMNSHO your generalizations are as bad as your spelling/spell check/typing! 

 

Bob, Urs lives in Switzerland and bases his airplane in Zurich.  I'll give him a pass on his English because I'm quite sure his German is better than mine.

[MIm20c]

3 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Okay then, for everyone disagreeing with Urs and his "whimpy" comments:

Why exactly did Cirrus outsell Mooney 100:1 this year, despite the fact that it is slower, uglier and flies worse?

Because people with that much disposable income want to be able to unlock and provide ramp presence (wingtip led’s) from 20 feet away. 

[Bob_Belville]

6 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

Bob, Urs lives in Switzerland and bases his airplane in Zurich.  I'll give him a pass on his English because I'm quite sure his German is better than mine.

Fair enough. My bad, I should know better. Of course it's his logic not his English that I take exception to...

[jetdriven]

12 minutes ago, MIm20c said:

Because people with that much disposable income want to be able to unlock and provide ramp presence (wingtip led’s) from 20 feet away. 

Umm, no.