Hurricane logistics

[Yetti]

it's been stuck just west of Freeport for 4 hours as the leading edge met up with the coast of Florida....   I know storms this big make their own way...   Poor people

[slowflyin]

Anyone looking for a safe home for their bird shoot me a PM.  I have one empty hangar.   KBKT   South central VA. 

[Mufflerbearing]

I love how kind and gracious fellow MS members are.  Especially in times of potential disaster.  I'm proud to be an MS member.

[Amelia]

Such fine offers of hospitality. Tempting!.I do so love a party. Trying to persuade Our Hero that standing on the end of the dock with arms outstretched commandingly  to the southeast may not have the hoped-for effect. 

ScottD, keep those words of wisdom coming. Thanks!

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

As I've said from the beginning, Dorian had some unique characteristics which has made it a difficult storm to forecast.  Now the storm is off the coast of southern Florida and is nearly stationary as a category 4 hurricane.   

 

[Yetti]

14 hours ago, scottd said:

As I've said from the beginning, Dorian had some unique characteristics which has made it a difficult storm to forecast.  Now the storm is off the coast of southern Florida and is nearly stationary as a category 4 hurricane.   

 

The big ole eye went away around daybreak this morning.....    Eventually you would think it would use up a lot of the energy.  I would guess there is some feeding from the gulf stream in the area that it is parked.  It is spreading out and growing in size.

[bradp]

Scott D is this what’s referred to an eyewall replacement cycle or something else that’s making the sinister organized eye look less so (not like it’s all of the sudden not dangerous)

[Seth]

On 8/30/2019 at 1:20 AM, Seth said:

My hangar at KGAI is available in MD just outside DC if anyone wants to fly up here to to get out of the path and enjoy DC for a few days.

-Seth

Still available if anyone wants to move their airplane!

-Seth

[Yetti]

6 hours ago, bradp said:

Scott D is this what’s referred to an eyewall replacement cycle or something else that’s making the sinister organized eye look less so (not like it’s all of the sudden not dangerous)

Starting with Hurricanes are earths Air conditioners. They bring cool water from the deep to the surface.   They cycle warm air at the surface up to the cold at high altitudes.  This was more of a weaking of the storm.   Because it sat in the same spot for so long it took all the energy out of the water.   It quit spinning so tightly and started to spread out. So the distinct eye went away.   The distinct eye was starting to reform this evening which means it has found some more energy. it is getting stronger again.  As it gets tossed between the two high pressure systems and moves to cooler water, it will loose some strength.  The High pressures were really strong to stand up to a storm that big.

I can't remember which storm, but it was south of New Orleans in the Gulf.   It synchronously collapsed one eye and reformed it like 25 to 50 miles to the North West.   That was  a clear cut eye wall replacement.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

6 hours ago, bradp said:

Scott D is this what’s referred to an eyewall replacement cycle or something else that’s making the sinister organized eye look less so (not like it’s all of the sudden not dangerous)

No, it's just the interaction with land that is starting to make the storm less organized.  

Here's a great visualization:  

 

[Yetti]

The 6 hour Satellite loop in Windy.com shows the eye reforming it is a really large across eye at this point.

 

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Yetti

[carusoam]

If there are two things to look for...

Strength... directly related to the low pressure...

Organization... like a nicely balanced wheel...

Take a look at Scott’s latest video to see a bad wobble begin as the storm begins falling apart...

unfortunately, it can get reorganized...

Best regards,

-a-

[Hank]

On 9/1/2019 at 11:39 AM, mike_elliott said:

not nearly like the wooping I'd get if I abandoned my bride to go fly with a new ultra owner next week....

So take her with you! So, it's easy . . . .  

[Yetti]

8 hours ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

I am a hurricane simpleton, but I primarily look to the pressure as the best indicator of things to come.  Let’s see. It is currently at 959 mb.   

Pressure is more of a indicator of current strength

Good article of the dropsonde devices to measure pressure and other factors that can be studied about the storm.   External factors such as High pressures systems, High level winds, water temp help with forecasting direction.   Other factors are land and mountains.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dropsonde

[Yetti]

31 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Thanks.  Yes, I know all of those things.  I was referring to pressure trends as one of, of course, many indicators.

Jim

Harvey would be a great storm to test your theories.    Since it formed up, came on shore, went back out to the gulf and then came on shore again.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/harvey2017/sonde.html

 

[Yetti]

[mike_elliott]

2 hours ago, Hank said:

So take her with you! So, it's easy . . . .  

somebody in this family has to work, and is why she will not be at the Summit this year, unfortunately.

[Yetti]

And then you realize they did not fly it when it went back offshore

[mike_elliott]

15 hours ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Dorian’s pressure and ground speed are rising, her max sustained winds are decreasing, and she is holding on very well to NOAA’s projected path that keeps her mostly off shore.  All very good things.  

God bless the residents of the Abacos and Grand Bahama, though.  Those poor people.

We are veery fortunate in FL. This could have made Michael look like a spring shower, not to take away from the billions of damage and loss of life of Michael, this had nothing but densely populated areas to destroy if it kept going west as a cat 5

[Yetti]

16 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

I don’t really have a thesis and wasn’t trying to propose one.  I did live through the coastal eye wall of the third or fourth most powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States, though, and am still recovering from it a year later, so I pay very close attention to these things.  I know you do, too, having lived through Hurricane Harvey.  I just feel tremendous empathy for those poor people on Grand Bahama and the Abacos right now.   As bad as it was afterwards for our communities, they have absolutely nothing there and have a very perilous future before them.

There were people that got washed off High Island in Harvey that were washed into the back bay and never found.  Living through the middle of a storm is quite an experience. I think I have 3 big and 1 small.  

Based on the pictures the islands are completely devastated and many people have been washed out to sea.   I would evacuate the survivors to something that still has infrastructure.  

I have a gauge that I use because I had to restore some of the antennas after Alicia. (we were out loading up a generator in the middle of Alicia).  So I always use the radio towers as a damage gauge.   There is one pic of the Radio tower that has been wiped clean on Grand Bahama. It's a big square one so it stands well.   I am sure if there were any little self standing cell towers they are down.

here is a light pole from Harvey at the airport in RockPort.   I also have some antennas from Rita and others.  Let me look around.

 

[bradp]

Moving the family up to VA for a few days up and out of the way.  More people are staying this time because, after Florence, roads were closed for 4-6 days and travel times were 4-6x slower once they did open (a 2.5 hr trip became a 12 hr slog for me).  Feel lucky to be able to move quickly out of the way.  Outer most cloud band pictured below.  Storm was still 300-350 miles SW.  Going back to do the relief shifts in the hospital for the lockdown crew this weekend or early next week depending on how things go.  Prep this year was smoother - the big box home improvement stores had daily truckloads of supplies, limited gas shortages as of Wed AM.  Here’s to big nasty steering out to sea.  

[RLCarter]

13 hours ago, Yetti said:

And then you realize they did not fly it when it went back offshore

Sure these aren't flights into TS Fernand?

[Yetti]

8 hours ago, RLCarter said:

Sure these aren't flights into TS Fernand?

You make a good point.  the dates are off.  Looks like the hurricane hunter data folks have lead me astray.

[RLCarter]

40 minutes ago, Yetti said:

You make a good point.  the dates are off.  Looks like the hurricane hunter data folks have lead me astray.

Bigger screen this morning and I can see the dates now..... That was Harvey?