Present state and future direction of GA

[scottfromiowa]

Quit your belly aching and go fly already....or go and put your finger in your mouth and have a nice cry instead.

I didn't/couldn't afford to fly until I was in my late 30's...stop ragging on the youth WTF is the excuse for those in that bracket?

I would not have pursued PPL without a mission...

On a side note that EPA candidate sure is hot...that video is like crack baby...can't get enough.....now to find some Hillary calf shots and I am good....

[Rhumbline]

Hello Mooney Folk!  New here and almost always lurk without posting on these things but this topic caught my eye as the stark contrast between GA 25 years ago and today is extraordinary though it probably shouldn’t be all considered.  I started flying and instructing in the mid ‘80’s and busted my hump trying to pay rent and build time to get that first 135 job.  Back then the ramp was lined with rows of aircraft, a very large portion of which were available for training and for rent.  $30-35 an hour (wet) for a 150 or 152 with a commensurate and seemingly reasonable increase for planes of advancing performance and complexity.  I paid & later received between $16-20/hr for primary & advanced instruction.  I stayed very busy during the warm weather months instructing the gamut from kids my age hoping to launch their own flying careers, to guys who just always wanted to learn to fly to businessmen intent on buying and flying their own planes in capital pursuits. 

 

Quit airline flying in the mid 2000’s to run the family business and assumed I’d never fly again and swore decades ago I’d never subject myself to the agony and expense of aircraft ownership.  Never say never.  The spurious delivery of a Trade-A-Plane to my POB must have sparked some need to recapture an aspect of my youthful years as I was shortly after committed by earnest money to an airplane.  Not having flown for years nor a light aircraft for many more, I went about the task of getting a BFR before I went to collect the object of my renewed interest and tangible evidence of my insanity. 

 

Astonished is descriptively inadequate when I found that the nearest instructor with rental plane was 70 miles away (the local airport used to have a thriving 141 school accredited with the local college, an air taxi operator, etc; now all gone) and the dual rate for instructor and plane combined would be about 200 bones.  I thought, ”How can anyone afford to learn to fly anymore?  Glad I did when I did as I sure as hell wouldn’t now!"  

 

Also revealing were my observations at a recent aircraft owner/pilot social event organized by the local airport social director.  My wife and I are in our mid to late 40’s respectively and we were the only representatives of what this seasoned group no doubt considered ‘whipper snappers’.  In fact, I cannot think of more than a couple of my contemporaries who own an airplane or fly outside of their vocational duty.

 

I have no cause or cure beyond the obvious but when I think about taking the plane to some not-too-distant locale for the weekend, plug in fixed & operating expenses anywhere from depressing to delusional, rent a car, get a room, buy some meals (my wife does not consider Popeye’s or Hooter’s “something different or elegant”) adult beverages and entertainment, it occurs to me I can’t afford it.  The fact that I really am able to can be easily lost in the idea that we could have driven to the same place with only a little more time, devil may care about the weather and we can relieve ourselves whenever/wherever we want.  As for appeal, a video game or social media is probably much more exciting and entertaining to the kids I’m exposed to and immeasurably easier to access; and skis, snowboards, mountain bikes and PWC’s cost money too…   just saying. 

 

Trade-A-Plane could try sending a copy to every box holder/resident to see what shakes loose I suppose.  It worked on me.  On the other hand, I'm already certificated and do not now have to face the burden that great expense.

 

Because someone may ask: 1968 M20C, 1330hrs TTAF&E & always hangared so it’s pretty much all original in & out with no mods except for radios & new no AD prop in 2008.         

[Mooneymite]

Welcome aboard.....

Rhumbline

 

 

I like that moniker:   A rhumb line appears as a straight line on a Mercator projection map.

 

Glad to have you back in the sky.

[John Pleisse]

Frederick Flight Center

46 minutes ago

Congratulations to Kelleen M for soloing today!! Way to go Kelleen!!

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[aviatoreb]

 

On the PPL. You can go buy your yacht, RV, and fancy car, get in and go. No training required. But the airplane, that requires lots of training and time. People don't want to take the time. It is a big barrier.

 

That is not ALL bad.  I love it in part because it is hard.  It is challenging all consuming.  My work is very cerebral and follows me wherever I go.  I am a math professor - I work all the time in my head.  I love that - and sometimes I hate that.  I can't just sit in a couch and relax because I just keep working in my head.  The only way I have found to NOT work is to do something else engaging.

 

Flying is that.  It is all consuming and challenging enough that it chases the other things from my head.  And it is magic.  What other word is there for it?  Its magic.  Flying in the sky at 250mph is just magic.  And when I am done for the day I am just high from the joy of it.  Heck, I flew yesterday and I am still basking in it today.

 

You know what else - when I am not flying, I look up at the sky in a way different from how I used to.  I always wanted to fly but I used to look up at the sky and wonder what it was like.  Now I look up and think, MAYBE I will go fly today and I imagine all the details of what it would be like.  So I fly often in my imagination too.

[aviatoreb]

I have three sons.  One wants to be an aerospace engineer and design airplanes - he is the real deal and we just went to the Intel Science a few weeks ago for his aerospace project, but he doesn't like to fly because of motion sickness.  My youngest son likes to fly with me when we go to interesting places.  And my oldest who loves to fish is always asking me to take him fishing in far away places - he is my most likely future pilot son...but if I were to bet money I would say a Mooney is not in his future....no not him...something on floats.

[KSMooniac]

There are so many factors contributing to the decline, and I sure hope we have another "bump" like what happened in the mid-/late-90s after the GARA passed in '94.  Many folks thought it was over after Cessna left the market in 1986, right?  We've had a lot of advancements in technology in the last 15 years, but unfortunately they have not translated to lower cost...in fact it is quite the opposite.  Hopefully the current push for Part 23 rewrite/reform will result in a similar bump sometime this decade, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Back when I worked at Cirrus and Lancair, coworker friends had an interesting graph they assembled and it made the situation abundantly clear.  They plotted the price of a new 172 vs. an average engineer's starting salary starting in the 50s and carried it thru 1986.  The slope was constant and the values were roughly equal until the late 70s, and then the price of the 172 diverged rapidly and it got worse and worse.  Today I think it is roughly 5 or 6:1, and obviously hardly anyone can afford to own anymore.  The biggest smoking gun in this analysis?  Trial lawyers.  Lawsuits became rampant in the early 80's and we've never recovered.  They've screwed it up the most for all of us, and I'm sorry if that offends any lawyers on the board.  There are enough ambulance-chaser types out there to spoil the entire profession, unfortunately.  Until we get some genuine tort reform, we'll NEVER get the costs down to the point where a middle class family can afford to own a useful plane.  We see evidence of this everyday with $500 alternators that are nothing more than re-badged $75 car alternators, or a $1200 fuel pump that is a 50+ year old design with no innovation or exotic materials.  Product liability insurance costs on the order of 15% of GROSS SALES for aviation stuff...that is sickening.  (Doctors/Dentists can probably chime in with their insurance costs too, and I bet they're similar or worse).

 

We'll never see the skies filled until more small businesses and families can afford to own and use a Mooney or whatever on a practical trip.  Renting no matter how inexpensive will never result in a revival since most rentals aren't available for a trip on short notice.  When folks can fulfill a practical need with an airplane, then it is a much easier "sell" than just trying to appeal to their passion for flying.

 

I fly and own for many reasons... I grew up with it and caught the bug early.  I find it challenging, rewarding, practical, FUN, etc.  I work in the industry and am angling towards developing a side business to play more in the Mooney/GA world as that is my passion.  I love to use my Mooney for pleasure trips to college football games or concerts like last weekend in Wichita Falls, TX that would've been a 6 hr drive vs. a 90-120 minute flight (winds!) that have no airline service.  I'm looking forward to a July trip to New England with my fiance that would be a real drag on the airlines.  I enjoy volunteer flights for Angel Flight and Veterans Airlift Command.  I need to get into Pilots 'n Paws too.  There is so much fun to have with a Mooney!  I cringe thinking about life without a plane after my 6+ year Mooney experience.

 

I've always loved machines and couldn't wait to buy a car at 15 and saved my money for years to allow me to do so, and learned all about turning wrenches because of that '66 Mustang.  My fiance has a couple nephews that are driving age and barely even got a driver's license, and have no interest in owning a car, or driving for that matter!  I cannot fathom that.  Perhaps video games and computers have a lot to do with today's youth? I have no idea how to counteract that influence other than taking as many kids flying as possible, and let them get a hand on the yoke.  I'm sure some kids will still get the bug despite all of the other competing influences and distractions today, but even if they do, what good does it do to the industry if nobody can afford it?  

 

That ended up rambling all over the place...but felt good to get it off my brain.  It would be helpful to promote tort reform and the Part 23 re-write with your congress critters...

[kclimie]

The state of the available GA fleet leaves a lot to be desired.  The planes which are marginally affordable by the Average Joe are closing in on 40 or more years old, fully equipped with lots of steam gauges, and useless (or near useless) avionics (LORAN, ADF, etc).  We carry more computing power in our pockets than was imaginable at the time the planes were designed, and wonder why the planes can't be equipped with similar devices.  Just about any plane that does have glass installed costs more than the average house.

 

Add to that the ADS-B requirement by 2020, which is going to be expensive, and a lot of people are hesitant to buy.  I expect that a lot of the GA fleet will be weeded out because of this.

 

 

It also costs a lot of money for training -- I laugh when I hear people say that PPL only takes 35 hours and "only" $10k to achieve -- yes it might be possible for one out of a hundred people to achieve it in that amount of time, but the average person takes a lot longer to achieve it.  That's a lot of time and a lot of money to most people.

 

But rather than focus on the negative, we need to start looking for solutions, to determine what we can do to get the next generation to look up from the pale blue glow of their iDevice and to the brilliant blue skies.

 

We need the media and politicians to stop demonizing the pilot population and change the notion that GA planes are unsafe when we all know that a 60 year old Cessna is far better maintained than 60% of the automobiles on the road.

 

We need to change the perception that flying is a rich man's game.

 

We need our advocacy organizations to actually advocate for us and our rights as pilots and free citizens, rather than selling us more crap which we don't need.

[jackn]

I’m resurrecting this thread after reading an article in AOPA where a 2010 C172 sold in a few hours at $319,000. 

There seems to be a huge gain in interest for flying. People that I meet tell me their kids get excited when they see a small airplane. We are having an aviation event at our airport next weekend and there is a lot of interest. 

There is an open area at the approach end to the predominant runway. Every evening this summer there are many cars with blankets and kids just watching the planes land. They get so excited when your coming in, it feels like you have a cheering squad. 

I heard there was a record crowd at Oshkosh this year. I wonder if all the you tube videos have anything to do with it. Makes aviation seem much more accessible. 

Just thinking. 

Probably should put a link in. 

https://www.hamptonflyers.com/

 

Edited August 31, 2018 by jackn

[Oldguy]

Lead article on the AOPA ePilot newsletter this morning (emphasis added):

Used Skyhawks a hot item

Prices for 40-year-old airplanes don't typically jump 20 percent in the space of a few months, but that's exactly what's happened to Cessna Skyhawks produced between 1968 and 1976. Values for other popular models are also climbing fast.

[apenney]

Just an opinion but it seems that social media and youtube in particular might be helping to increase the appeal of general aviation.  Just as in the sailing world, a new generation of younger pilots are forging ahead with vlogs and more focused channels that ultimately put aviation in a positive light and demonstrate how fun it can be.

[steingar]

The golden age of GA is right now.  Lots of serviceable airframes are available at reasonable prices.  You can navigate with inexpensive consumer electronics that will also show you weather and traffic with inexpensive avionics.  Lots of experimental gear is becoming available for the certificated fleet, and you don't even have to keep getting a medical.  You only ever need pass the dread 3rd class medical once, and then you can transition to the much more facile Basic Med.

There's a crapload of win going on right now.

[aviatoreb]

GA seems to be like Bell Bottom Pants.  It went out of style, but they are back!

[b65cuda]

I'm 37yrs old. In the late 90s ealy 2000s a ppl cost just over 2k. Now it is more like 12k. As a civil air patrol cadet commander, I can say there are plenty of kids with a passion for flying, but the cost is so high, they see getting an appointment to the air force academy as their only chance.

I bought my mooney because rental prices had gotten ridiculoisly high.

Fast forward to 2018, there isn't hardly a cfi in yuma az, always perfect weather btw, under the age of maybe 60. My cadets are buying in to clubs with instructors that are snowbirds and can only train in the winter.

I am having a hard time doing my instrument, because the instructors cant get into or out of my plane, and I cant justify paying the prices for a very basic ifr 172 that they normally instruct in.

In 1967 my new plane cost about the same as a new mustang gt. Now a new plane cost about 10 times as much as a new sports car. Technology has improved to make computers affordable for just about any one, but the very mostest improvement in technology for aircraft has doubled the price of planes from steam gauges to glass making them even more out of reach. 

The icon a5 commercial talks about their priority of making aviation affordable, and they felt they met that goal... then I saw the price! How did they make that goal? $0.5M is affordable for who?

My kids will learn to fly because I WILL get my CFI in the next few years and I own my own plane and plan on finding a cesna 150 for under 20k for them to train in that I hope to sell for the same. Otherwise, I dont think they'd have a chance.

[Jerry 5TJ]

I took a few lessons in High School.  The local flight school at Cable Airport charged $12 per hour for a Cessna 150 and a CFI got a stratospheric $5 more.   

$17 per hour seemed terribly expensive.  

I worked very part-time at a bicycle shop doing repairs at $1.80 an hour.  

A visit to the CPI calculator web site claims that a late 1960’s $17 is equivalent to around $130 now.  

You can still rent a Cessna 150 (perhaps the very one I abused going around the pattern half a century ago) and private CFI for close to that figure.  

Agree that we should seek paths to affordable flight training for motivated youth.  

It has always been expensive.  

 

[Sabremech]

I’m probably going to get out of airplane ownership and flying in about 3 years or less. The reasons are various but cost is the biggest factor and secondly it’s no longer fun for me. Part of my problem lies in the fact that I’m employed in aviation and have my own little aviation business. It seems that I have too much aviation in my life and I longed for something with less regulation so I recently got back into old muscle car ownership and I love it. 

[EricJ]

44 minutes ago, Sabremech said:

I’m probably going to get out of airplane ownership and flying in about 3 years or less. The reasons are various but cost is the biggest factor and secondly it’s no longer fun for me. Part of my problem lies in the fact that I’m employed in aviation and have my own little aviation business. It seems that I have too much aviation in my life and I longed for something with less regulation so I recently got back into old muscle car ownership and I love it. 

I race cars with some guys that have been aviators for a long time, own mutliple airplanes, etc., etc., that have discovered racing as a much cheaper alternate outlet from aviation.   Some are downsizing their aviation footprint for simpler lives racing cars and fixing up houses.    I've been on the opposite trajectory in that I've raced cars for a couple of decades and have moved up to aviation and am spending less time on the racing.

I often think they took the wiser path.

[steingar]

I might have to bail on aviation in my retirement. I suspect I will not have the resources to continue. I am not looking forward to it at all. Indeed maybe I’ll just keep working.

[bonal]

17 minutes ago, steingar said:

I might have to bail on aviation in my retirement. I suspect I will not have the resources to continue. I am not looking forward to it at all. Indeed maybe I’ll just keep working.

I have just started that change and have run the numbers even with a 45% reduction in income I think aviation will still be doable. In two years SS begins and two years after that the house is paid for so should only get better as time passes. This first month has been really interesting as I have paid much more attention to every monetary expenditure. It's funny the little things that add up that you never think about when you have more than enough.

[KLRDMD]

2 hours ago, bonal said:

I have just started that change and have run the numbers even with a 45% reduction in income I think aviation will still be doable. In two years SS begins and two years after that the house is paid for so should only get better as time passes. This first month has been really interesting as I have paid much more attention to every monetary expenditure. It's funny the little things that add up that you never think about when you have more than enough.

I'm sure I'll downsize airplanes when I retire, whenever that may be. The biggest reason is I will no longer have a business use for an airplane. But the house and all vehicles including the airplane are paid for and I'll be buying a hangar soon that will be paid for too so the fixed monthly "outgo" shouldn't be too bad.

[Skates97]

My Mooney is part of the retirement plan. It's how I will get about to visit the kids and grandkids. The first thing my wife looks at as we think of different places to retire is how far away is the airport and what is the flight time to where the kids live. 

[Mooney in Oz]

13 hours ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

There is nothing that can ruin a good hobby faster than turning it into a job.

I agree with you Jim but only if those of us in that situation allow it to happen to ourselves and it easily can.

I fly for a living and in the past had work colleagues comment to me that because airline flying is so procedural and mundane, they wish they could fly a GA machine for fun again.  Others have done something about it such as getting into aerobatics and acquiring their own.  Others treat it as just a job. 

For me, I have owned my Mooney for 16 years and hope to keep doing so past retirement provided my medicals and financials allow me to do so. At this stage it is looking good. The freedom of going when and where I want (within reason), improvements to my Mooney (notwithstanding expenses), the friends I have made throughout the journey and being allowed to participate on these forums, which I intend to meet some of you at a future Summit, make it all worthwhile.

    

[Andy95W]

21 hours ago, b65cuda said:

I'm 37yrs old. In the late 90s ealy 2000s a ppl cost just over 2k. Now it is more like 12k. 

I would love to know where you're getting your numbers from.  

I learned to fly in the late '80s at a Cessna Pilot Center using C-152s.  Cost was closer to $4,000.  Bought a modest car brand new 2 years later for about $10,500.

A comparable car today would be about $20,000.  PPL today I've seen is closer to $8,000.  All of that seems to jibe with inflation.

Becoming a pilot was always expensive.  What it takes is a commitment to aviation and putting some other things on the back burner- which nobody seems to want to do anymore.  They want everything faster, better, easier, and cheaper.

You're probably too young to remember how folks made popcorn in the past:

   1.) put a small layer of oil in a pan, then put it on the stove 2.)heat the oil, when it starts to get hot put in one kernel. Wait.  3.)when that one kernel pops, add the rest of the popcorn  4.) keep moving the pan around on the heat so the popcorn doesn't burn.  After about 10 minutes (not including clean up), you had popcorn.

Today?  Throw a bag in the microwave and push the button that says "Popcorn".

You should tell your cadets to work hard, allocate all their free money and time to aviation, and in the end it will be worth the struggle.  And I'll bet that the things you value most in your life weren't easy, but difficult. Tell your cadets that, too.

Respectfully,

A former CAP cadet

[Skates97]

4 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

I would love to know where you're getting your numbers from.  

I learned to fly in the late '80s at a Cessna Pilot Center using C-152s.  Cost was closer to $4,000.  Bought a modest car brand new 2 years later for about $10,500.

A comparable car today would be about $20,000.  PPL today I've seen is closer to $8,000.  All of that seems to jibe with inflation.

Becoming a pilot was always expensive.  What it takes is a commitment to aviation and putting some other things on the back burner- which nobody seems to want to do anymore.  They want everything faster, better, easier, and cheaper.

You're probably too young to remember how folks made popcorn in the past:

   1.) put a small layer of oil in a pan, then put it on the stove 2.)heat the oil, when it starts to get hot put in one kernel. Wait.  3.)when that one kernel pops, add the rest of the popcorn  4.) keep moving the pan around on the heat so the popcorn doesn't burn.  After about 10 minutes (not including clean up), you had popcorn.

Today?  Throw a bag in the microwave and push the button that says "Popcorn".

You should tell your cadets to work hard, allocate all their free money and time to aviation, and in the end it will be worth the struggle.  And I'll bet that the things you value most in your life weren't easy, but difficult. Tell your cadets that, too.

Respectfully,

A former CAP cadet

I got mine in 2016 and it was right about $8,000 all in, materials, flight time, written test prep, and fee to the DPE, everything.

As for popcorn, microwave just isn't the same. Grew up with Sunday afternoon after church consisting of popcorn and football or whatever other sport was on. When the Stir Crazy popper came out and you didn't have to shake it anymore to keep it from burning that was a game changer. (I did learn to make it on the stove and did so for two years as a missionary, couldn't afford to buy the popper and take it with me from one assigned area to the next). I still make popcorn almost every Sunday afternoon, I'm on about my 3rd or 4th Stir Crazy popper in the last 25 years.

[b65cuda]

35 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

I would love to know where you're getting your numbers from.  

I learned to fly in the late '80s at a Cessna Pilot Center using C-152s.  Cost was closer to $4,000.  Bought a modest car brand new 2 years later for about $10,500.

A comparable car today would be about $20,000.  PPL today I've seen is closer to $8,000.  All of that seems to jibe with inflation.

Becoming a pilot was always expensive.  What it takes is a commitment to aviation and putting some other things on the back burner- which nobody seems to want to do anymore.  They want everything faster, better, easier, and cheaper.

You're probably too young to remember how folks made popcorn in the past:

   1.) put a small layer of oil in a pan, then put it on the stove 2.)heat the oil, when it starts to get hot put in one kernel. Wait.  3.)when that one kernel pops, add the rest of the popcorn  4.) keep moving the pan around on the heat so the popcorn doesn't burn.  After about 10 minutes (not including clean up), you had popcorn.

Today?  Throw a bag in the microwave and push the button that says "Popcorn".

You should tell your cadets to work hard, allocate all their free money and time to aviation, and in the end it will be worth the struggle.  And I'll bet that the things you value most in your life weren't easy, but difficult. Tell your cadets that, too.

Respectfully,

A former CAP cadet

My numbers are from my own experience. I got a loan for 2k and it nearly covered all of my training, but I didn't train at a cessna  pilot training center. 12k now is based on talking to local cfi's on what it is costing average students now.

My numbers for cars are based on simple research. Cars cost 10 times what they did in the 60s, but planes cost 100 times. I haven't researched fuel prices between then and now, but I doubt fuel has gone up much more than inflation. 

Microwave popcorn is older than me, but I cook on cast iron, grow vegetables, and raise animals. I feel what was common knowledge for survival was lost nearly a century ago.

My own children don't watch TV, play video games, or spend all day on a computer. I cant control or know what my cadets do at home, but I can say the ones approaching college age are very hard working, dedicated to flying, don't drive nice cars, have put every penny they have into buying into the local flying club etc. Their passion is not lacking. The availability of planes and instructors is.

152s are mostly gone from the training fleet and 172s are running about $150 an hr, instructors are $60-75 per hour, and charge from the second they see you till they give you your bill for the day. Checkrides are back up to nearly a three month wait in many parts of the country which does end up adding cost for most people not at a "school" with their own DPE.

Yes, it has always been expensive to fly, but the days of hanging out at the airport and washing planes in exchange for hours are mostly gone. Not all kids are video game junkies and expect everything cheap and now. The age of GA was probably in the 60s evidenced by when the greatest number of aircraft where probably built, and by the fact that such a huge number of pilots are hitting retirement age right now.

I am grateful for the EAA and CAP providing an opportunity for kids to experience flight. It does get them to work hard and make them passionate about something. 

I am enlisted in the Air Force. I dont make a ton of money, but a huge portion of my income has always gone toward flying. Living within my means, not getting into credit card debt, etc... have made it possible for me, and it is still entirely possible for kids now, but to say the cost of flying has only risen with inflation I just dont buy.

The airlines, the military are in a huge pilot shortage. Even the border patrol has visited me trying to recruit kids offering to provide some financial help for them to become pilots because they are hurting. It is not because no one is interested, it's because it is expensive! 

Pay for a college degree and flight training, or get student loans to do so. Then make a teachers salary or less for a few years while you build experience. An experience requirement recently tripled. Do you really think it is as easy now or affordable as it has ever been? That's why my cadets are working hard to get into the Air Force Academy. Tell me that is easy. Tell me that I really need to explain to them about hard work. I do preach hard work, but I'm preaching to the choir in my squadron.

I'm excited that the days of furloughs are gone and there is a pilot shortage. Now pay will go up, pilots will stop paying companies to fly for them to build hours, and some prestige will come back to the career. Hopefully more changes will be made for GA that makes it more affordable too. I'd like a WASS gps, but I'll stick to my Aera 560 that gets me from point A to B just fine for now. The price of a 20yr old 430 with install is crazy for those some of us.