To buy or not to buy, that is the question...

[SD Flyer]

I’m on the market for m20j and I found one which is pretty close to my requirements.
 
Pros:
- 1994 airframe with about 1200 hours on it, prebuy showed - the airframe is clean
- ads-b compliant
- pre-buy didn’t show any major issues with airframe or engine (except engine age and minor oil leak)
- last couple years was maintained with LASR
- few “bells and whistles” like speedbrakes and G5 attitude indicator
 
 
Cons:
- the engine is also around 1200 hours but 13 years past TBO. Engine had a prop strike in 1995 when it had about 50 hours on it and this incident is not documented well. Likely the engine was inspected and considered airworthy. It made more than 1000 hours since then
- no gps
- comm1/nav1 is inop
- prop is past TBO
- minor oil leak from the top of crank case
 
Originally the owner asked 110k which seemed like a reasonable price to me, however after looking through maintenance records and pre-buy results I don’t feel like this would be a fair price. Also I don't want to invest 40k on a new engine and 4k on a prop overhaul in next year
 
What does Mooney community think?
Ask for a discount or keep seeking for a better option? If ask for discount - what would be a fair discount for those issues?

Edited August 21, 2019 by SD Flyer

[MIm20c]

I’m sure most will disagree with me...I’m assuming you have a verbal or written agreement with the seller.

To me it sounds like you’re getting cold feet about the plane.  Not having gps and the hours/age of the engine should’ve been a known quantity the moment you laid eyes on the ad. I’m feeling you want a large discount to fund things that might fail in the future. I’d ask for a small discount / repairs to be made for the oil leak and nav/com. If this does not sound reasonable save everyone’s time and move on.

[SD Flyer]

30 minutes ago, MIm20c said:

I’m sure most will disagree with me...I’m assuming you have a verbal or written agreement with the seller.

To me it sounds like you’re getting cold feet about the plane.  Not having gps and the hours/age of the engine should’ve been a known quantity the moment you laid eyes on the ad. I’m feeling you want a large discount to fund things that might fail in the future. I’d ask for a small discount / repairs to be made for the oil leak and nav/com. If this does not sound reasonable save everyone’s time and move on.

We didn't make any agreement yet and didn't talk about the price. What I really want is an airplane for a reasonable money.  The problem I have hard time to solve is "what would be reasonable" knowing all information above. 


 

[MIm20c]

2 hours ago, SD Flyer said:

We didn't make any agreement yet and didn't talk about the price. What I really want is an airplane for a reasonable money.  The problem I have hard time to solve is "what would be reasonable" knowing all information above. 


 

This changes my thinking completely. If it’s still on the open market I would quickly size up what the plane is worth to you.  It sounds like the plane is mostly original?  How do the seats and paint look?  To pay a good size premium for a newer airframe I’d want one that spent most of the time in a hangar. If the prop concerns you a reseal could be done for under $1k. The engine might be fine for another 1000 hrs or it might have some problems when you start putting time on it. It’s hard to predict and value for imo...I’d probably value it between mid time and run out. Good luck and I hope the experience ends positively for you. 

[Jerry 5TJ]

You posted a similar story in January.  

Perhaps you aren’t quite ready to buy a plane.  

That may be because of a plane’s maintenance questions, suspicious gaps in log books or perfectly reasonable fears of the unknown costs ahead.  

The majority of us have faced very similar uncertainties. We did our due diligence, comparison shopped, grappled with cost-benefit analysis spreadsheets, and bought airplanes anyway.   

[67 m20F chump]

I don’t think it’s a horrible deal.  You must be able to pay the bills if thing go worst case.  You could put in a used Garmin 430w and run that engine.  It’s possible that you must overhaul your motor too.  Don’t look at it as an investment look at it like an expense.  Can you pay for the expenses?

[BKlott]

Don’t buy something you can’t afford to overhaul.

[KSMooniac]

The engine is a runout, and made in the era of questionable cams. With that little time, it's sat a lot, and that usually kills the cam. It might be fine, or it might need an overhaul in another 100 hours. Value it as runout in your favorite value calculator and see if it makes sense. You can overhaul it for far less than $40k.

The kicker is that another plane with 300 SMOH over 10 years can have the same thing happen, but you likely will pay more for it and still need to deposit another 25-30k to fix it. I'd rather buy a high time engine at a discount as an experienced owner now. YMMV

There aren't many 90's J models to choose from, so you'll have to decide if they're worth a premium to you. 110k plus 70-80% the cost of an engine overhaul brings it to reasonable nice J price territory. Updating the panel puts it into really nice J territory. If the paint and interior are still nice, no corrosion, no tank leaks, etc then I'd say it sounds like a reasonable deal. I don't think you should expect a 40k discount off such a price to possibly fix an old engine as the price is already discounted a good bit IMO. But like with any airplane, you need the reserve to eat a big bill at anytime, or ability to get a loan, refi, whatever when the time comes.

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk

[steingar]

I'd worry less about GPS than autopilot.  Putting in a GPS is far more facile and less expensive than an autopilot.

[gsxrpilot]

A '90's model M20J is just about the best investment in a Mooney airframe one can make. They are the fastest selling, most popular model of Mooney aircraft, and for good reasons. And there is nothing comparable on the new market, therefor the values of these J's are increasing. It's kinda like finding a '63 split window Vette that needs everything. But it's a '63 split window. Done up right, this J will be worth really money.

The question is, do you want to buy a project, or do you want to buy an airplane to fly? This one sounds like a project to me. It needs a couple of months of work at a good shop before you're really getting to enjoy it. I would consider the engine and prop to be run out. It also needs work done on the panel. If you don't think a GPS is a big deal and you'd be willing to fly without one, you can save yourself probably $60 or $70K and pick up a C or E that doesn't have GPS, but does have a good engine. But you're gonna want a WAAS GPS.

So I think you'd be looking at an engine and prop, along with a GPS and whatever else the panel needs to bring it up to something you'd be happy to fly. Having said that, you'd be putting money into a '94 J, which is about the best airframe to put the money into.

[drapo]

When I bought my 65 M20E, it had a mid-time engine that didn’t fly for close to 10 yrs. Following my pre-buy, I made an offer for a reduced price taking that into account, telling the seller the engine was kind of a lottery ticket and he accepted it. The price reduction was not for the total cost of an overhaul, actually about 25% or $5000. Ten yrs and 450 hrs, after two annuals with metal in the filter coming from the  camshaft and lifters, I finally overhauled the engine this year.

Asking price being below market, you could get a GPS/ Glass cockpit M20F for that kind of money, but a comparably equipped 90’s M20J would fetch way more dollars!

[GeeBee]

2 hours ago, BKlott said:

Don’t buy something you can’t afford to overhaul.

Very sound advice. Here is the thing about engines. It does not matter if it has 50 SMOH or 5000. When you buy a used airplane, be prepared to drop an engine in it unless it is a fresh factory reman or new and has a warranty. I've seen some very low time engines be POS because of corrosion, poor overhaul, poor break in etc. I've seen some high timers run and run. Sure you inspect, compression check, oil analysis, borescope but the reality is you don't know until you run it for a while. There is a C-182 on my field that was purchased with 100 SMOH. After another 50 hours it shook like a wet dog and you couldn't fly it without the cowl flaps fully open. Case bolts were coming loose. The owner threw in the towel and sent it out for overhaul. Bad hardware, questionable torque work etc. and this was by a well known and supposedly reputable shop. 

As far as avionics, paint and upholstery go, you got two choices, what can you live with or what you want and when. Then budget accordingly.

Bottom line to a used airplane. Make sure it has good "bones" i.e. no corrosion or bends, be in a position to drop in an engine and if you don't consider yourself lucky, budget for everything else now or in the future. Price accordingly. The price you come up with may not buy that airplane.

 

[Yetti]

2 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

The engine is a runout, and made in the era of questionable cams. With that little time, it's sat a lot, and that usually kills the cam. It might be fine, or it might need an overhaul in another 100 hours. Value it as runout in your favorite value calculator and see if it makes sense. You can overhaul it for far less than $40k.
 

The 1995 cam is a deal killer.   Needs to be priced with a motor rebuild.    Also there is absolutely no reason to pay any money for 15 year old 430W or 530W when you can get a new 175 for the same price.   It's like my dad buying Windows 98 computers at garage sales and wanting me to fix them.   I don't even remember that stuff.    https://www.flyingmag.com/garmins-new-gps175-gnx375/

 

[Bravoman]

Paul’s advice above is right on.  If it is a solid air frame they ain’t any making any more of them and the engine on any used aircraft is a crapshoot.  In my case, I did not expect to be paying for a factory reman two years into ownership, but it happened. I would be very careful though that you have  the airframe inspected by an MSC or someone very  familiar with Mooney’s because I have personally seen an M20J of the exact same year you are looking at which had significant corrosion on the tubular frame due to mouse urine. That was at my MSC for a prebuy and was rejected for that reason.  I have mentioned that a couple of times on this board because it was astounding to me given how beautiful the aircraft was to look at.   If it is in fact a clean 94J I cannot imagine the owner letting it go for significantly less than his ask.  At that price, even if you have to do an engine and some avionics upgrades, I cannot see you getting hurt too badly if it is a plane you keep for a while.

 A good clean air frame is the key. If you have that, everything else is just details.  

[SD Flyer]

10 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

Paul’s advice above is right on.  If it is a solid air frame they ain’t any making any more of them and the engine on any used aircraft is a crapshoot.  In my case, I did not expect to be paying for a factory reman two years into ownership, but it happened. I would be very careful though that you have  the airframe inspected by an MSC or someone very  familiar with Mooney’s because I have personally seen an M20J of the exact same year you are looking at which had significant corrosion on the tubular frame due to mouse urine. That was at my MSC for a prebuy and was rejected for that reason.  I have mentioned that a couple of times on this board because it was astounding to me given how beautiful the aircraft was to look at.   If it is in fact a clean 94J I cannot imagine the owner letting it go for significantly less than his ask.  At that price, even if you have to do an engine and some avionics upgrades, I cannot see you getting hurt too badly if it is a plane you keep for a while.

 A good clean air frame is the key. If you have that, everything else is just details.  

I did a prebuy with a Mooney Authorized service shop which also was recommended by local Mooney owners. I hope they did the inspection well :-)
After I went with mechanic through his notes - he mentioned few time that the airframe is clean. 

However here is my concern: the engine and prop may easily cost me ~50% of the airplane price. For 150k (110k asked + engine overhaul) I can get a low time engine J with GPS and decent AP already installed. 

[Yetti]

For about half of the 150K you can get a really nice F model and only be a few knots slower.  Or for just a bit more than 150K you can get a nice Bravo and be a lot of knots faster......   Choices.

[gsxrpilot]

@Yetti and I are in agreement.

https://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft/for-sale/98544505/1967-mooney-m20f-exec-21

 

[jaylw314]

42 minutes ago, SD Flyer said:

However here is my concern: the engine and prop may easily cost me ~50% of the airplane price. For 150k (110k asked + engine overhaul) I can get a low time engine J with GPS and decent AP already installed. 

?  I don't know if that fact should affect your buying decision?  In most single-engine GA aircraft, replacing the motor and prop is usually well over 50% of the value of the aircraft.

Given that the cost of equipping a plane is never recouped at sale, it makes sense, though to buy the aircraft equipped closest to what you want that you can find and afford.

[SantosDumont]

There is no free lunch.  When you buy an airplane, you are going to find things that are old and broken or not there... be prepared to pour money into it.  However, I'm gonna plug a modded F.  I have all the mods making my plane basically into a J, and I have a fully working autopilot, IFR GPS, speed brakes, etc... for about half of the cost of that J.  The downside is that my airframe is 30 years older than a J.

[gsxrpilot]

This is all an education... and all of us have been there... so please don't take this the wrong way...

The decisions you're trying to make right now, could have been made before any pre-buy inspection. You might notice that the two things that raise the highest concern around here, are corrosion and engines that haven't flown much. Corrosion usually requires a pre-buy to find. But engines that have been sitting are pretty easy to figure out just by looking at the ad. Anytime the engine hours and airframe hours are the same... on a plane of this age... it's been sitting. 

We also talk a lot about avionics and the costs to upgrade. Surely this J does have an autopilot?  But adding a GPS will be costly, if you do it right. 

I think the J's are a good investment, but I probably wouldn't spend over $100K for one that needs an engine AND avionics.

Send me a PM if you'd like to talk through this off line. 

Ideally a pre-buy is used to...

• uncover any deal-breakers that no one could other know about such as corrosion or other catastrophic issues.
• validate that everything the seller has said about the plane is true.
• verify that all installed equipment if functioning and in working order
• give advice on the overall condition of the plane compared to the hundred of others the MSC has inspected

[gsxrpilot]

3 minutes ago, SantosDumont said:

There is no free lunch.  When you buy an airplane, you are going to find things that are old and broken or not there... be prepared to pour money into it.  However, I'm gonna plug a modded F.  I have all the mods making my plane basically into a J, and I have a fully working autopilot, IFR GPS, speed brakes, etc... for about half of the cost of that J.  The downside is that my airframe is 30 years older than a J.

The age of the airframe is the least of concerns for Mooneys. And where it counts for the pilot, the left front seat, nothing has changed in those 30 years.

[SantosDumont]

Just now, gsxrpilot said:

The age of the airframe is the least of concerns for Mooneys. And where it counts for the pilot, the left front seat, nothing has changed in those 30 years.

except for tank seal condition, old moisture prone insulation, etc.  There are a few things in the vintage fleet where 30 years more time adds risk to the airframe.

[Bravoman]

1 hour ago, SD Flyer said:

I did a prebuy with a Mooney Authorized service shop which also was recommended by local Mooney owners. I hope they did the inspection well :-)
After I went with mechanic through his notes - he mentioned few time that the airframe is clean. 

However here is my concern: the engine and prop may easily cost me ~50% of the airplane price. For 150k (110k asked + engine overhaul) I can get a low time engine J with GPS and decent AP already installed. 

 If the aircraft does not have an auto pilot, which seems unusual, that does change the calculus somewhat. In that case, for the $150,000 figure you mentioned, you could undoubtedly get a best-of-breed 90s model J if it were available with all of the things that you list. If you could find such an animal for that price with a low time frequently flown engine I would go that route versus what you are  looking at since it diminishes the number of question marks well as the potential significant down time  associated with a new engine, avionics upgrades, etc. Even  at 150K for this hypothetical J, you would be better off by far in my opinion then buying what you are looking at for 40 or $50,000 less. 

[Bravoman]

1 hour ago, Yetti said:

For about half of the 150K you can get a really nice F model and only be a few knots slower.  Or for just a bit more than 150K you can get a nice Bravo and be a lot of knots faster......   Choices.

I know it is not the point of this thread, but I am not so sure 150K buys you a  nice bravo.  I know that you can get a bravo for that, but I would not think one that did not require some work or had deferred maintenance. 

[ArtVandelay]

For about half of the 150K you can get a really nice F model and only be a few knots slower.  Or for just a bit more than 150K you can get a nice Bravo and be a lot of knots faster......   Choices.

As time goes on, you’ll spend more on hangars, avgas, insurance, and maintenance. I gotta believe the Bravo will require much more in all categories except hangar fees.

In the end, you’ll get back what you spent buying the plane when you sell it and to a lesser extent, upgrades as well.

You should have $30,000 in the bank for a possible engine overhaul, and $10,000 for other miscellaneous maintenance items.

Now, subtracting the $40,000 from your bank account...how much can you afford to spend?

 

 

Tom