State of single engine prices - Thoughts?

[exM20K]

12 hours ago, PT20J said:

Seems to me that if all the people who were so sure about their predictions for the future of the economy consistently acted on their beliefs -- and were right -- they'd all be rich. So, why aren't they?

The truth is that no one really knows the future for certain, and timing a market is a fools errand. Time itself is the great equalizer. In the long term, prices tend to increase.

Yup.  My old boss has a sign behind his desk that reads: “What’s obvious is obviously wrong.”  He is a billionaire many times over and possesses a unique set of skills.  
 

it seems to me that we are wired for mean reversion expectations, especially in a rising price environment. I’m sure there is plenty in the scientific literature to name and describe this tendency, and in plain English, it’s some stew of Fear of (or embarrassment from) missing out and envy. 

As pointed out above, CAPEX is a small part of total cost of ownership.  Buy the best plane for your mission that you can afford on a TCO basis.  Price fluctuations, especially over larger time spans will barely make the needle quiver on the cost meter.

-dan

[glbtrottr]

If a piston single is too expensive then just buy a piston twin.

Just did. Got a seneca I couldn’t pass up. Nicely dated. I don’t have the right color paint for it I don’t think…I might. Black, metallic brown and gold to match the beige and leather interior…

I was downsizing from my k/262 to an F model because overhaul costs are just nutty these days, and now I have a twin.

The prices of trainers like my 172 have skyrocketed- I thought it was supply and demand given the pilot shortage. Either way, 172 goes …


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[A64Pilot]

Twins, especially light twins have always been available for a good price, it’s the big singles that used to carry a good resale.

Of course some will argue that a twin cost only a fraction more own and fly.  

On average a Cessna 210 will bring more than a similar vintage B55 Baron, Don’t believe me take a look.

172’s for what they are have always been overpriced, my guess is many want to own as their first airplane the one they trained in, and there is good logic to that.

[KLRDMD]

44 minutes ago, glbtrottr said:

Got a seneca I couldn’t pass up. 

Senecas are great twins. They carry enough, are fast enough and are very safe. If you're used to managing a M20K, the engines are essentially the same. If you can get a III or later, all the better. Those have a number of improvements over a II.

[Eight8Victor]

The Mooney inventory on Controller has doubled since summer. The housing market seems to be in the same boat. There will probably be some bargains to be had in the short term. In the long term, the effects of the hyperactive government printing presses are probably going to drive prices higher on all commodities as the dollar weakens. 

[0TreeLemur]

Inflation: Too many $$ chasing too few assets.    Vref says that in 2022, prices for all Mooney models more-or-less stabilized, except for J's which increased 11% YoY.

To me it seems that folks who earned their licenses in the 90's and 00's are coming into the market, while the number of worth-owning airframes in their price range has decreased, putting upward pressure on prices for well maintained Mooneys.

[Echo]

On 12/29/2022 at 3:52 PM, larryb said:

Another thing to remember is that over time the purchase price is a small part of the overall ownership cost. It's not uncommon to spend 20% to 30% of that purchase price every year to fly and maintain the airplane. 

Really?  This gets multiple owners agreeing?  Average M20E on controller is $90k. So on tne low end you all are spending $18k a year on flying and maintenance?  That is WAY high in my opinion.  Up it to 30% and you are in crazy territory.

[A64Pilot]

33 minutes ago, Echo said:

Really?  This gets multiple owners agreeing?  Average M20E on controller is $90k. So on tne low end you all are spending $18k a year on flying and maintenance?  That is WAY high in my opinion.  Up it to 30% and you are in crazy territory.

I concur, my biggest expense now is fuel, $3K or so, then insurance at $2K, a few hundred for parts a yr and that’s pretty much it, sure first year was a little high, max 10% of purchase price replacing some inop avionics with used yellow tagged ones and ordering a NBS spring etc.

But I can easily see that for those pay 50K for an interior (I think I saw that quote, but use 30K instead) 30K or so for a paint job and 50K in avionics over the last few years could easily hit that number.

I simply couldn’t fly if I had to essentially buy a new airplane every three or four years.

But depending on where you live, I’ve heard of $12K a yr for a hangar, so I understand why some tie down.

You know I bet many if not most are putting loan payment into that number too, and back when you could get money at 2% a loan made more sense than now.

But as I sit and think about it, if your having to pay for annuals, an expensive hangar, and an airplane payment, yeah it could get up there, then add in low time pilot (I’m over 10,000 total and still pay $2K and of course going up this year, again) to say nothing of any real problem discovered in the first Annual etc., that $90K airplane is old.

[hammdo]

Annual, insurance, and hanger are ~$10k a year fixed costs for me. I do my own oil changes (3 times a year - cost about $100 each) except at annual.

The first year was the most expensive as I had costs for gnc 355, surefly, exhaust, mag/prop gov/crank plug, transponder failure, G5s, audio panel, LHS, wheel wells, G2 repair, tires/tube.

As you do proper maintenance (I had to do the fuel selector, mixture cable failures the second year, seat covers), it starts to level out. This year is upgrading LHS, fuel flow for G2, replacing windshield, and tank patches. I also did my IFR rating.

The windshield is crazing so that needs to be done as well as the tank patches. Of course, the yearly subscriptions come into play. It’s not just maintenance but upgrades. I prefer to do a decent upgrade but not the big full glass panels. Right now, all I’d really like to have is an autopilot - when Garmin or BK get things figured out and fixed/available. 

While she needs paint, that is last on the list ;o) Fuel is becoming my biggest cost as I fly ~100-150 hrs a year. 

-Don

 

[Fly Boomer]

2 hours ago, hammdo said:

While she needs paint, that is last on the list ;o) Fuel is becoming my biggest cost as I fly ~100-150 hrs a year. 

The numbers below are from
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMA_EPPV_PTG_NUS_DPG&f=M
which is the U.S. Energy Information Administration (I didn't know there was such a thing either).

The numbers are labelled "U.S. Aviation Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners" -- which sounds like wholesale to me.
The "W" is "data withheld so as not to reveal information about a single supplier. Or something.
There seems to be both resistance and support around $4.00 so not much change for ten years until the last few months.
2012  3.73  W    4.13  4.31   W     W     W    4.09  4.26  4.06  3.56  3.60
2013   W   4.06  4.02  3.86  3.90  4.19  4.22  4.30  3.98  3.65  3.67  3.68
2014   W   4.14   W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2015   W    W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2016   W    W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2017   W    W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2018   W    W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2019   W    W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W     W
2020   W    W     W     W     W     W    2.76  2.81  2.61  2.50  2.49  2.67
2021  2.83 3.15  3.36  3.36  3.45  3.49   W     W     W    3.78  3.78   W
2022  3.69  W    4.58

[DXB]

5 hours ago, Echo said:

Really?  This gets multiple owners agreeing?  Average M20E on controller is $90k. So on tne low end you all are spending $18k a year on flying and maintenance?  That is WAY high in my opinion.  Up it to 30% and you are in crazy territory.

18k is way too low. 30% is not at all crazy territory. It is probably spot on for me and many other folks who actually use their short body Mooney a reasonable amount. Consider my yearly costs in my heavily updated M20C: Hangar $5,400, insurance $1,800, annual $4,500, [120 hrs flying x 10 gal/hr x $6.50] $7,800.

So we're already at $19,500 without even considering other scheduled + unscheduled maintenance or engine/prop overhaul reserves.  I suspect all together I blow around 25k per year, and my insured hull value is 75k - so greater than 30%.

 

[Jerry 5TJ]

Compared to my experience in three Mooney airplanes, the average MooneySpace airplane flies considerably faster and costs much less.  

[Hank]

1 hour ago, DXB said:

Consider my yearly costs in my heavily updated M20C: Hangar $5,400, insurance $1,800, annual $4,500, [120 hrs flying x 10 gal/hr x $6.50] $7,800.

A more reasonable list for an M20-C:

Hangar, $2400; insurance, $1400; fuel (100 hrs x 9 gph x $5), $4500; annual, $2000; GPS updates, $500. Call it $11,000 after an owner oil change or two, but oil is getting stupid expensive. 

[hubcap]

I fly my 231 approximately 150 hours a year.

If nothing breaks, $25,000 will cover my costs for the year.

[DXB]

23 minutes ago, Hank said:

A more reasonable list for an M20-C:

Hangar, $2400; insurance, $1400; fuel (100 hrs x 9 gph x $5), $4500; annual, $2000; GPS updates, $500. Call it $11,000 after an owner oil change or two, but oil is getting stupid expensive. 

Pretty sure I could get a bit closer to that if I moved to your locale... I already do my own oil changes.    Who's your insurance carrier?

[Danb]

Around 2017 or so basic med became an option, there’s 55-60,000 pilots on basic med many are retired with funds available to purchase I'm sure there’s more older pilots that are in the market that may have given up flying without the advent of basic med. I have a few friends that purchased or upgraded there plane after it became available.

[A64Pilot]

On 12/30/2022 at 5:08 PM, Eight8Victor said:

The Mooney inventory on Controller has doubled since summer. The housing market seems to be in the same boat. There will probably be some bargains to be had in the short term. In the long term, the effects of the hyperactive government printing presses are probably going to drive prices higher on all commodities as the dollar weakens. 

I agree with what you say, but if history is any lesson, (we were where we are headed 25 yrs ago) houses and other big ticket items will decrease in price because of people’s inability to buy, especially luxury items, in the 80’s flea markets and resale shops flourished, and generic foods became a thing

Mobile Homes however were hot sellers then

[A64Pilot]

My costs are Hangar 0 as I own, or more accurately rent from the bank, fuel 8 GPH and I’ll guess $5 a gl for 100 hours so $4,000 fuel, insurance $2,000 because I’m based on grass, I’m an IA so except for parts Annuals etc are free, but I’d guess $1,000 a yr on parts at least.

But don’t forget engine and accy amortization, on average an engine is 50K? so 2,000 hours is $25 an hour, guess $10 an hour for prop, mags, pumps etc, so add $3,500 to that 7K for $10,500 a yr.

So $10,500 a yr and I doubt it can be done any cheaper than that, and I may be underestimating parts because I don’t keep track.

This is why aircraft can’t be considered an appreciating investment, pay $100K on an airplane, keep it ten years pay another $100K, sell after 10 years for what you paid for it and even not counting inflation, your 100K in the hole. You would have to more than double your money to break even, and that’s if you did zero improvements.

Not saying don’t own an airplane, just don’t kid yourself that it’s a good investment, but then a lot of the things worth doing aren’t.

[Hank]

2 hours ago, DXB said:

Pretty sure I could get a bit closer to that if I moved to your locale... I already do my own oil changes.    Who's your insurance carrier?

We're both insured for $75K. I rounded up to 2 AMU, it's actually less. 1600, 1700, thereabouts. IFR, almost 1000 hours, close to 900 Mooney hours. Check with @Parker_Woodruff, he's been my broker for several years now.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, A64Pilot said:

This is why aircraft can’t be considered an appreciating investment, pay $100K on an airplane, keep it ten years pay another $100K, sell after 10 years for what you paid for it and even not counting inflation, your 100K in the hole. You would have to more than double your money to break even, and that’s if you did zero improvements.

So you lump operating expenses into the value of the plane? Do you add up you power, water, sewer, gas, phone, internet, lawn service, etc., into the value of your home?

[DXB]

Just now, Hank said:

We're both insured for $75K. I rounded up to 2 AMU, it's actually less. 1600, 1700, thereabouts. IFR, almost 1000 hours, close to 900 Mooney hours. Check with @Parker_Woodruff, he's been my broker for several years now.

I think you said $1400 above, which was what led me to wonder if I'm paying too much.  I work with Parker Woodruff too, and our ratings and experience are very similar (1200 total hours, 1100 in my Mooney).  Mine went from ~1700 to ~1800 last week when I renewed - and required me to switch from Global to Old Republic to keep it at 1800.

[Danb]

Since when is our planes an investment? 

[aviatoreb]

If I didn’t waste my money oening a cool airplane I would find some other way to waste money instead.  A boat.  A vacation home.  A big model train set.

[aviatoreb]

Just now, aviatoreb said:

If I didn’t waste my money oening a cool airplane I would find some other way to waste money instead.  A boat.  A vacation home.  A big model train set.

Oh wait / I have a 27 foot boat.

[EricJ]

3 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Oh wait / I have a 27 foot boat.

Get a race car and you'll have the trifecta of motor vehicle financial inefficiency.