WHAT HAPPENED?

[DAVIDWH]

Where have all the Ovations gone?

Tradeaplane has six M20R's listed while Controller.com has four available in the states. Two in Australia, one in Germany et.

Maybe the Mooney mkt, is following the housing mkt.

Purchased mine 9 years ago with several to choose from and no bidding wars or multiple offers.

Anyway, good luck to new Ovation buyers, it appears that time may not be on the side of the purchaser.

Best,

[jlunseth]

Until about a year ago there were perennially around 15 231’s available at any given time on Controller. Now there are 4-5. Same basic phenomenon across the board for all the models. It is a seller’s market. Be glad you have one. But also remember 2008. For every takeoff there needs to be a safe landing, and while landing accidents are generally not fatal, there are far more of them then any other regime of flight. That is a market lesson also.

[GeeBee]

Boats, houses, airplanes. Just sold a house 20% over asking after a bidding war erupted. It is all the same. There is 6 trillion in excess savings out there in people's hands right now and every thing is competing for that money, and that money is competing for everything.

 

[Mooneymite]

1 hour ago, GeeBee said:

Boats, houses, airplanes. Just sold a house 20% over asking after a bidding war erupted. It is all the same. There is 6 trillion in excess savings out there in people's hands right now and every thing is competing for that money, and that money is competing for everything.

 

So true.

And the stock market is being driven up to dizzying highs, not by value, but by the demand created by all the IRAs/401Ks, etc. looking for somewhere to put cash.

Crazy financial times...the Mooney market is but one small piece.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Mooneymite

[201er]

I guess Mooney might have sold a few new planes these days if they were in the business of making planes...

[GeeBee]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bankers-see-private-jet-party-133326251.html

 

[A64Pilot]

22 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bankers-see-private-jet-party-133326251.html

 

The Big ticket aircraft, yachts etc have been selling very well for years, it’s the boats and airplanes that the middle class used to buy that have been in dire straights.

However this post pandemic sales of everything that middle class people is buying is new.

I fear the bust will be worse than 08 when it happens, but then I worry,it’s my nature.

Edited June 19, 2021 by A64Pilot

[NJMac]

5 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

 fear the bust will be worse than 08 when it happens, but then I worry,it’s my nature.

I forget where I saw this but some hedge fund manager walked thru many of the market crashes and said they were all largely brought on by a rise in the Fed's interest rate.  As long as it stays low, I'd imagine this party will continue.  It's going to be interesting when the Fed raises rates next year as they said they will. 

[carusoam]

Technically…

We have seen this coming for a while…

Interest rates have fallen to the lowest level possible without going negative…

The Pandemic basically caused the federal reserve’s overnight borrowing rate to be adjusted to help get people all back to work…

The flood of free money enables people to buy things…

The pandemic has made it difficult to deliver goods and services…

It is a two horned dilemna…

Good for employing people over time… unemployment is about 50% higher today and declining, compared to pre-pandemic… roughly.

Tough for pricing over time…

Expect inflation to continue to creep in everywhere…

The fed knows this… explains this… and is willing to allow this to happen… called running the economy hot…

Now for the fun part…

JP, the guy in charge of the fed, has basically said we are more than a year away from raising interest rates… before… he was not thinking about thinking about raising rates…

So… don’t be in a rush to get a loan… or buy bonds… or select stocks based on there dividend rate… there will be a time for that soon enough…

Then again… you probably don’t have access to the overnight lending window… your interest rate will depend on a few other variables… 

 
So David… if you are seeing 10 Ovations available around the world….  How many is normal?

If GMax always has one or two for sale… that is plenty to satisfy the market… 

The real question…. Where are all the people with 200+amu, with flight experience, looking for a plane?

Ovations can make crummy experiences for real low time pilots… with not enough free time and drive to acquire training…

Note For low time pilots… don’t be in a rush to get in over your head… get training to go with that high performance airplane and stick with the training…  Ovations have near 50% more HP than what the FAA calls High Performance…

PP thoughts only, not an economist, or CFI… or seer of the future, or definer of what HP is… all stuff I learned as a PP…

Best regards,

-a-

[ArtVandelay]

I forget where I saw this but some hedge fund manager walked thru many of the market crashes and said they were all largely brought on by a rise in the Fed's interest rate.  As long as it stays low, I'd imagine this party will continue.  It's going to be interesting when the Fed raises rates next year as they said they will. 

Well, crashes always happen when economy is good (by definition), the market will be up and and rates are up. So blaming it on the fed is silly, effectively saying if we had low rates we’d never have a crash.
Unlike 08, the banks are not over leveraged. And for the first time, neither are the people, our savings rate is higher than it’s been in a long time. We always will have recessions, and some things are way overpriced (bitcoin), there will be adjustments, but I don’t think you’ll see airplane prices crash unless something happens like the federal government decides 100LL is a harmful pollutant and makes it illegal without having a substitute.

[carusoam]

The fed raising rates always occurs… it is always painful… it always has to happen…

Kind of like picking the lesser of two weevils…  increase the economy, or control inflation…

recessions are typical of  the economy getting out of sync with supply and demand…

Raising the rates quickly is akin to slamming the brakes on the economy…

raising rates stops inflation…  terribly slowly…  W.I.N.   Whip Inflation Now…

Lots of psychology involved…

Talking about raising rates works pretty well for some fed reserve participants… like feathering the throttle or tapping the brakes…

Getting 300MM people to toe the line can be an additional challenge…

Some analog signs of the economy used to be easy to see…

• How may pages of jobs in the weekend paper…
• how many house for sale signs on your street…
• how man Os for sale at GMax…
• How long are they listed before closing…

I’m still watching for the roaring 20s part II…

It started in earnest pre-pandemic…

Took a serious beating during the pandemic…

Too soon to tell if stores are re-opening or not… it takes opening stores, salons, restaurants etc… to get everyone back to work..

Lots of permanent change with local businesses having an increased online presence… using Facebook, and Shopify… and other reservation technology…

Best regards,

-a-

[StevenL757]

22 hours ago, 201er said:

I guess Mooney might have sold a few new planes these days if they were in the business of making planes...

Very true.

[A64Pilot]

7 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Forbes sums it up nicely:

"In 1970 a Cessna 172 was 1.3 times the average salary in the U.S. and a Bonanza was 5 times the average. Today it is 6 times the average salary for a 172 and 14 times the average salary for a Bonanza."

You can argue all day long that the avionics are better on today's 172 but it doesn't change the fact that general aviation flying is much less affordable today than it was 50 years ago.  The only affordable planes for most are in the used market.  The "sellers market" which is precipitating price increases just makes flying that much more unaffordable for the middle class.  It just accelerates the demise of the industry with fewer and fewer manufacturers chasing a smaller and smaller market that desires and can afford new $700,000-$900,000 single engine piston airplanes.

Mooney abandoned even the pretense of trying to sell an affordable plane when they discontinued the M20J.

In the mid to late 70's General Aviation was delivering 10,000-14,000 piston singles per year and another 1,500-2,000 piston twins per year.  Last year, globally, there were 1,164 piston singles delivered and Cirrus accounted for 347 of those.  The general aviation market demand may be up statistically, but that is growth off of historically low numbers.  The number of new piston fixed wing planes is not keeping up with the number that are being wrecked and scrapped.  The FAA, in their latest Aerospace Forecast 2020-2040, predicts that the US fleet of fixed wing piston general aviation planes will drop from about 140,000 in 2020 to about 115,000 in 2040.  

"The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink over the forecast period (2020-2040) by 26,365 aircraft (an average annual rate of -1.0 percent). Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, availability of much lower cost alternatives for recreational usage, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2021/04/28/prices-for-new-general-aviation-aircraft-may-be-pricing-pilots-out-of-the-market/?sh=29f93f703722

I tried saying this in a earlier thread, but you did it so much better than I could have possibly done so.

On edit, I feel as if we are caretakers of a dwindling supply, and feel that beyond simply maintaining my investment that I should do my best to maintain my aircraft in at least a stable condition, with the goal of each year them being slightly better than they were the year before, and when that becomes no longer possible, I should sell them to someone who can. What are our kids or grandkids going to be able to fly if we don’t?

To me it’s painful to see an aircraft tied down rotting away, even if it’s something as ugly as a Tripacer.

There is an old Bonanza I walk past every time we go to Crystal River that bothers me, it’s probably beyond saving from a cost perspective. I think a Piper Super Cruiser is there and in the same position.

Edited June 20, 2021 by A64Pilot

[A64Pilot]

1 hour ago, JohnZ said:

Are these figure taking experimental aircraft into account?

On a slightly unrelated note to the original topic... going with an experimental aircraft is making increasingly more sense. At this point many of them (Vans, Sling, etc.) are proven designs and anything but “experimental”. Many of them are basically brand new compared to the 40+ year old Cessna’s and Mooney’s that are reasonably affordable to the average person. There is so much red tape around certified aircraft that they are being priced out of existence. Sad, really. 

Experimental is pretty much the only hope left for the common man.

‘I looked at everything from an RV-4 to a Bonanza before I found my Mooney. I haven’t any interest in building, none, and for an IA an Experimental loses a lot of its appeal, but what “got” me was that a decent built IFR RV-6 or 7  was $100K asking, with a field overhaul mid time engine. I paid $95K for my J model which pretty much duplicates the performance of a 6 or 7 but carries a whole lot more.  A good Bonanza can be had for about the same price, but will cost more to fly and maintain.

But as the 182’s and Mooney’s etc go away which they are, that pretty much leaves Experimental.

Mooney abandoned the J because they couldn’t make money on it. Costs of manufacturing a small number of aircraft are so high, you have to sell the Uber expensive Luxury models that have higher profit margins, hence the pushing seven figure piston singles, which for me as a common man, may as well be a G-650.

‘I used to think for years that what wad killing GA was the expense, people simply couldn’t afford it anymore, but then we went cruising in our boat for a few years and I would see a whole lot of seven figure sportfisherman pull up to the dock and take on a $1,000 or more of fuel at a time and realized they could easily be flying for less than that boat cost. I think the difference is they can decide today they want a boat, and as long as the check clears they can be out driving around in their boat tomorrow.

Immediate gratification, which is big in the world of today, and learning to fly takes a lot longer.

[Will.iam]

Another angle that i have not seen posted is that my dad was a sailor by profession but owned and flew the M20J mooney because it was financially much cheaper to take him my mom and me in the mooney than pay for 3 airline tickets. Gas was cheap and federal regulations kept airline tickets high. There was a reason delta captains could earn the price of a new Cadillac every paycheck. Now fast forward to me at the same (actually a decade older) age as my dad was then. Gas prices have gone up but not as much as airline tickets have dropped out the bottom with deregulation and competition from ultra low cost carriers and with this post covid climate of trying to get the customer back into the disease tube as some like to refer to it I’m no longer able to save money even on four family members. Example: dfw - Phx $85.39/person $683.12 round trip for 4 people. and we get there in 3 hours. If we try to fly it in our mooney it’s over 5 hours and we would have to stop for restroom break and pickup more fuel as we can’t all 4 go and take enough fuel for non-stop

but hypothetically if we were able to fly nonstop it’s still 67 gallons over and 57 gallons back at a national average of five dollars a gallon we’re still looking at $620 in just fuel alone which is right about the same as what we pay commercially this isn’t including oil that I  use nor does it include wear and tear on the aircraft.  
I can fly commercially cheaper sometimes much cheaper with sales and promotions than i can fly our family to a destination with much higher dispatch rates and quicker time. The only trips that make since now are to friends that don’t live by an airport that an ultra low cost carrier flies to or if the range is less than approximately 400 miles we can get there as quick by not dealing with TSA security. Or the novelty of taking up friends that have never flown in a small GA plane before although the liability of getting sued has also dramatically changed since my dad used to take me and my friends up “around the patch” lots of times. Not once did he call to ask parents if it was ok. If the kids hoped in we went. Now a days I’m ever so cautious of only taking up people i know really well and even then it’s a risk if anything happens that i could be sued. That has really taken alot of the fun out of going for a ride.   

So for new budding pilots it’s not financially motivating to learn how to fly and buy your own airplane when you can go commercially faster and cheaper. And even though he might love to fly it’s a hard sell to the spouse against using that money for other things because who wants to pay more to go slower. GA airplanes are going the same way Amtrack trains are. People have to love that mode of transportation because there are now cheaper and faster modes of transportation out there. 
 

uugh. One of my missions was to fly family from DFW to PNS or DTS. How cool to land at an airport overflying the crystal clear waters and beach on final? Well spirit has a direct flight Dfw-Pns for $49 one way! Shit I can’t even drive my car there for that cheap let alone fly the plane. And DTS ramp fees would limit my stay. So once again we will be using that extra money for pontoon rental better hotel stays than flying the mooney. Rats. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Will.iam
Additional info

[Hank]

That's depressing, @Will.iam. Here's my scenario:

• Drive to ATL, 1-1/2 - 2 hours
• Arrive early, 2 hours minimum
• Pay $14/day for cheap parking

On a work trip a week ago, a coworker flew ATL - CIN. Left home (closer to ATL than me) at 0800 CST, was through baggage claim at CIN at 1730 EDT. Travel time 8-1/2 hours. His return flight left CIN at 0806, so he arrived at 0600; mechanical trouble made him miss his connection, he got home at 1915. Travel time 13+ hours.

My Mooney scenario: 

• Drive to KALX, 20 minutes
• Preflight, pull out of hangar, close doors, 15 minutes 
• Engine start, taxi and checklists, 10 minutes max.
• Fly KALX - I69, 2-1/2 -3 hours depending on winds aloft.
• I69 was between the hotel and the company being visited.
• Travel time: 3:15 - 4:00 hours.
• Parking at KALX--free inside my hangar.

So yes, there's plenty of justification left for travel by GA.

[Will.iam]

2 minutes ago, Hank said:

That's depressing, @Will.iam. Here's my scenario:

• Drive to ATL, 1-1/2 - 2 hours
• Arrive early, 2 hours minimum
• Pay $14/day for cheap parking

On a work trip a week ago, a coworker flew ATL - CIN. Left home (closer to ATL than me) at 0800 CST, was through baggage claim at CIN at 1730 EDT. Travel time 8-1/2 hours. His return flight left CIN at 0806, so he arrived at 0600; mechanical trouble made him miss his connection, he got home at 1915. Travel time 13+ hours.

My Mooney scenario: 

• Drive to KALX, 20 minutes
• Preflight, pull out of hangar, close doors, 15 minutes 
• Engine start, taxi and checklists, 10 minutes max.
• Fly KALX - I69, 2-1/2 -3 hours depending on winds aloft.
• I69 was between the hotel and the company being visited.
• Travel time: 3:15 - 4:00 hours.
• Parking at KALX--free inside my hangar.

So yes, there's plenty of justification left for travel by GA.

Why did your co-worker go CIN instead of CVG? Only a 21 min car drive between cin and cvg airports and delta flies atl-cvg multiple times a day direct in 1 hour or less. But i stated that point earlier that if you are going where no ultra low cost carrier is going direct it’s still better in the mooney. The problem is the ultra low cost carriers are expanding almost on a quarterly basis. Take spirit for example new direct flights out of dfw to pns this month. 30 new routes out of miami starting end of summer. Our main mission is going to see my wife’s sister in austin as it’s only 45 mins-1 hour depending on winds and you can’t get there any faster. Same with seeing a  nephew in OKC. Or her other sister in Monett Missouri as there are no major airports close enough with direct flights from low cost carriers. I was just hoping to use the airplane like my dad did when i was a child and airlines have come way down in price to make any long haul not as financially beneficial as it was in the past.  I know airplane ownership can never be financially justified but at least for my dad in his time it was especially when any Neighbohr A&P would sign off his annual for a case of beer while they talked about flying during the inspection. My how times are different now. 

[exM20K]

1 hour ago, Will.iam said:

One of my missions was to fly family from DFW to PNS or DTS. How cool to land at an airport overflying the crystal clear waters and beach on final? Well spirit has a direct flight Dfw-Pns for $49 one way! Shit I can’t even drive my car there for that cheap let alone fly the plane. And DTS ramp fees would limit my stay. So once again we will be using that extra money for pontoon rental better hotel stays than flying the mooney. Rats.

But…. Spirit.  I’d rather crawl across broken glass.

I look at the whole thing differently.  It’s not just about DOC $$$.  The benefits of coming and going on my schedule and being able to carry stuff and pets that are a pain on airlines, maintaining some shred of dignity by not being herded like livestock onto the germ tube, and the joy and satisfaction of doing it myself are worth the extra $.

of course, I’m rationalizing, but that’s OK :-)

-Dan 

[A64Pilot]

Faster is not my experience, not with the having to drive to the Airport in Atl, park in the next county, go through all the Carp you need to security wise etc. Sure it may be a two hour flight but all the carp you have to go through on both ends means it takes all day, to say nothing about sitting next to huge people in tiny seats, crying babies and people who bring bags of Mcdonald’s on the airplane with them. 

I flew business Internationally, but most always State side I took the C-210, because I wasn’t flying into major cities, and I lived 3 hours drive away from Atl

‘Flying now is the Greyhound bus of the 70’s, small wonder that the Biz jet market is booming for the folks that can afford it.

‘The Interstate Highway system was likely more of a killer of GA than the airlines, it was conceived in 56 but not finished until 92.

Edited June 21, 2021 by A64Pilot

[Will.iam]

I’m glad we can go when we want and to places airlines can’t it’s just seems harder to justify as the years go on. I live less than 30 mins from Dfw. But i also live less than 5 mins from my plane. If my family shared the same passion for flying i have there would be no question.  In my youth i flew years in our plane before i ever flew in an airliner and by that time i liked looking out the front and flying the plane instead of staring out a side window and not being at the controls. I guess it’s my fault i let my family grow up riding on airlines so much that is what they expect as that is all they really know. Time to make more trips in the mooney that can’t be done in the airlines. Fredericksburg was a great example and finally made my wife see the benefit to having a small plane. Unfortunately kids are not allowed  at the hanger hotel so i have to find something that will appeal to the kids as well. Yosemite national park comes to mind just have to get it done before some carrier goes there direct. I’m trying to get the family to oshkosh this summer but that is like pulling teeth when they don’t know what to expect and oshkosh has changed so much since when i went in the 80’s with my family i don’t know how fun it will really be compared to when i was a kid and i thought all things airplane were amazing. 

[Flash]

Ran a marathon in Helena, Montana a week ago. There was no airline service, because the big runway was closed for resurfacing. Airport was still open for my M20J, though. Sure, I could have flown to Great Falls and rented a car, if I could find one. But where's the fun in that?

We can get places and have adventures in GA aircraft that aren't available by airline. If you're going between major metropolitan areas, it's rarely cost-effective. But there are more than 5,200 public-use airports in the United States, and airlines don't fly anywhere near a lot of them. And don't forget all of the international destinations.

Without my Mooney, I would never have visited the Pribilof Islands, or Dominica, or Greenland. Sure, I've spent a ton of money in almost 22 years of Mooney ownership, but that money bought me opportunities I couldn't have had without a plane.

[Mooney217RN]

There’s something else going on that nobody is paying attention to.  The demand for GA aircraft is up because of the pandemic.  There is a segment of the population that is just saying no to the airlines.  I am in that segment.  Further, people are moving away from major metro areas, meaning they need transportation.  Yes, economics are playing a role, but so are external factors.

there are two things that concern me about GA in general.  The demographic isn’t getting any younger.  Also, when the federal reserve pulls the punch bowl away, and they will, the party will be over.  Eventually interest rates will rise and the excess liquidity in the system will evaporate.  That said, I know a ton of people who have decided that they are NOT going back to the airlines under any circumstances.  That is the biggest factor.

[GeeBee]

My most common trip is ATL-BWI, ATL-ABR or ATL-MEM. Primarily for the grandkids. I have pass privileges, so I can even fly for free if I want. 

By the time I drive to ATL, without traffic, much worse if I do. Park, go through security, board, I can be there in my Mooney. Then you add the flight time, the disembark and travel time to my final destination from the big airport. With my Mooney, I fly into fields 15 minutes from my final destination. I beat the jet every time. On ABR I have to change planes so it is a no brainer. Basically anything under 500 non-stop or 900 change of plane and my Mooney is the the bomb. Plus, I know I have a seat and for hunting, my guns are secure and will arrive with me. Nothing worse than arriving on a hunting trip without your guns. 

 

[PMcClure]

I just took my 1st commercial flight in over 14 months. Birmingham to Cleveland on Delta. I typically flew over 100,000 miles per year pre-pandemic. The trip to Cleveland just reminded me why GA is better. Many trips in the Mooney this last 14 months. And typically it is cheaper, especially when I have 2 or 3 people on board. Anything less than 1000 miles is better, cheaper and faster in the Mooney. And even longer trips are more fun and less hassle than the airlines. 

[Greg Ellis]

16 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

My most common trip is ATL-BWI, ATL-ABR or ATL-MEM. Primarily for the grandkids. I have pass privileges, so I can even fly for free if I want. 

By the time I drive to ATL, without traffic, much worse if I do. Park, go through security, board, I can be there in my Mooney. Then you add the flight time, the disembark and travel time to my final destination from the big airport. With my Mooney, I fly into fields 15 minutes from my final destination. I beat the jet every time. On ABR I have to change planes so it is a no brainer. Basically anything under 500 non-stop or 900 change of plane and my Mooney is the the bomb. Plus, I know I have a seat and for hunting, my guns are secure and will arrive with me. Nothing worse than arriving on a hunting trip without your guns. 

 

Along with other posts, I think this pretty much sums up why GA is so valuable at least to me.  Other than the fact that I love flying myself and it is fun, I cannot stand the amount of time it takes to get onto an airline flight and off again.  The waiting around, the pushing of people in line at TSA and check-in.  Just don't tolerate the lines well so I would rather fly myself or just not go at all.  My job does not require me to travel unless it is for CE.  So if I can't go by Mooney I usually just do not go.  

Plus, to go by airlines, I have over an hour drive in awful traffic to the airport, check-in, TSA lines, wait to board (being there 1-2 hours before hand) so now I am 3+hours into this and I haven't even boarded my plane yet.  I can go a lot of places in my Mooney in 3+ hours and have more fun doing it.

Reminds me of a patient of mine.  She asked me one day about being a pilot.  I told her I was.  She asked if I knew of any small commuter airlines that go from DFW to Colorado.  Her family apparently took a trip on a small commuter airline out of DFW to northern Arkansas.  She loved the fact that she did not have to go through TSA or any type of security or check-in lines.  They departed out of the GA FBO at DFW airport.  She got a glimpse behind the GA curtain and liked it.    Anyways...I digress.