Too conservative or correct decision?

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 2/26/2020 at 10:01 AM, Yooper Rocketman said:

So in one of the first times I remember I cancelled a long cross country for a reason other than icing, thunderstorms, high surface/winds aloft or low ceilings.   I needed to attend a dealer meeting in Las Vegas, had a little weather in the central part of the trip but not that significant, with clear skies in the area of concern.  I was really looking forward to the flight but started watching turbulence reports and forecasts the day before.  
 

The first thing that caught my eye the day prior was a sigmet for turbulence over the Rockies with a few severe turbulence reports.  By 5 PM Monday (my scheduled departure was early Tuesday morning) it was pretty evident Tuesday would present me the same turbulence.  I was going to file 28,000’, but the turbulence was forecast right up to 40k’.   I went on line, found seats open on a flight out of MSP ( a mere 50 minute flight to STP vs a 6 hour drive),  bought them and went spam can over the rocks. We definitely saw moderate turbulence and my Sun Country flight did a pretty serious avoidance route besides.  
 My self imposed policy is to never regret a decision to not fly after the fact, as the decision wasn’t made in hind sight.  Still ...... wondering how some of you others would have handled this?

Tom

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N994PT
 

Here’s a couple screen shots taken, while sitting in the MSP Congo line yesterday morning, of the turbulence forecasts and pireps for altitudes near my intended flight.  

 

 

My sweet spot in these kinds of situations would have been between 15K and 18K.  The ride would have likely been pretty smooth.  On descent it might have been a different story.  I could see moderate or greater turbulence into Las Vegas.  It was on the back side of a trough with a ridge building in from behind.  That's the place I like to be.   

[Yetti]

It was probably one of the most windy days evar.   Down here on the flat part of Texas along the sub tropical coast.   Good choice.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Yetti

[Yooper Rocketman]

7 hours ago, 59Moonster said:

Lately I've noticed a lot of turbulence in my flight areas, but all of them seem to be higher in the FL's and has been pretty decent lower down. I see you were going to go at FL280 would you have been better staying a lot lower? Or were they just as bad?

Fuel burn lower with a propjet would be horrendous (and less safety margin if something would go wrong).  
 

Tom

[Mooney in Oz]

On 2/27/2020 at 2:01 AM, Yooper Rocketman said:

wondering how some of you others would have handled this?

Exact same way as you did, Tom.

[StevenL757]

On 2/26/2020 at 10:20 AM, ilovecornfields said:

I cancelled a flight due to icing and multiple freezing levels forecast this last weekend that, in retrospect, probably would have been fine. We ended up driving for 6 hours and I made a comment to my wife that we probably would have been just fine flying. Her reply was, “I like that you’re conservative. You only have to be wrong once for something bad to happen and I’d rather be tired than dead.”

You made the right choice.

Absolutely.  Well-said.