Lets clearly establish the used 430W market

[MIm20c]

I know this has been about the gns series but the units really taking a hit from what I’ve seen are the older BK, Garmin, and other units. The staple BK hsi, dme, and adf units have also fallen to paperweight status. 

[carusoam]

Things that have WAAS capability are still allowing planes to fly all the available approaches for Part91 flights...

Sure its an old box, but it works...

No, my airframe doesn’t lose value because it has a BK KLN90B in it...

My instrument panel didn’t lose value either...

Without WAAS, my instrument panel didn’t have the value that it could have with WAAS...

Keeping up with the standards is one thing...

Keeping up with the trendy stuff is another... color touch screens are nice... but not nearly as valuable as the basic WAAS package...

Depends on who the buyer is... if they don’t fly in IMC, are they even buying the WAAS boxes...

Thanks again Chase, for lending your expertise...

It is great to have vendors from different areas of aviation supporting MS!

Best regards,

-a-

[ArtVandelay]

First sign that Garmin will EOL the 430s is they will raise the flat repair cost....say $1200 to $1500,  then a couple of years later they’ll raise it again...at some point repair requests will fall so low that EOL will almost occur naturally.

[0TreeLemur]

On 1/10/2020 at 3:00 PM, steingar said:

I suspect that the domestic demand is being driven by the ADSB mandate.  "While you're doing the transponder, how about this and that".  Whether domestic demand is as robust once the fleet has met the mandate I don't know.

Of course, I could be totally wrong and its just the strong economy.

Not true in my case.  In late 2017 we bought a tired '67M20C that had a shotgun panel and a KLN89b GPS.  While serviceable, it was not approved for approaches.   I sold my Hewlett-Packard RPN calculator collection just to upgrade to a 430W, and haven't looked back.  In fact, I bought it two years ago from @Avionics Source.  When I asked an avionics installer for a quote, they suggested I upgrade the transponder at the same time to meet the ADS-B requirement.  So, we branded both calves with one iron.

[0TreeLemur]

On 1/11/2020 at 3:07 PM, tmo said:

I actually still have a RedHat 7.2 (Enigma) box running some back-end stuff...  Not RHEL 7.2, RedHat 7.2.  Yes, in a VM, yes, isolated from any network except from one local IP on a single port, but I probably still have the hardware it came off of in the attic somewhere, and it would boot up.  They don't make them like they used to

I've got Windows XP running in VirtualBox.   Growl.

[Yetti]

On 1/11/2020 at 1:07 PM, David_H said:

How is that not how it works with respect to market value? I agree that EOL doesn't force an upgrade immediately. However, once EOL on hardware occurs, replacement must occur eventually. Once support ends, the value must fall. Additionally, hardware and software support are not easily comparable.

Oh Hardware.  How old is your Mooney :-) And how much did you pay for it vs. the original purchase price?

Don't get me wrong, I think a 430W should be $1500 in a rational market.  But in an irrational market where people are trained to overpay for stuff, it's what we have.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Yetti

[Yetti]

11 minutes ago, 0TreeLemur said:

I've got Windows XP running in VirtualBox.   Growl.

The coolest thing I saw was they upgraded the Windows OS from 2008 to current using VM ware without having to reinstall the software.   Of course this was below level 3 in the control room and they did not have the install disks.

[Avionics Source]

7 hours ago, ArtVandelay said:

First sign that Garmin will EOL the 430s is they will raise the flat repair cost....say $1200 to $1500,  then a couple of years later they’ll raise it again...at some point repair requests will fall so low that EOL will almost occur naturally.

That's a pretty good thought in theory, but these units are so bullet proof we see less than a 4% failure rate averaged over 100 trade-ins requiring flat rate repair, and another 4-5% that need small updates we can do in the field (batteries, knobs, buttons, etc). Unless someone has different data, I just don't believe these are breaking or going back to the factory in droves. At this rate, I would bet it takes over 50 years (seriously) for every unit in the market to fail and need a factory repair (whether offered by Garmin or not). 

For what it's worth, Garmin charges a higher % of product value on a flat rate repair on a GTX345 (24%) vs a 430W (20%).

My last argument would be what's to say Garmin doesn't like the GNS flat rate repairs and WAAS upgrades? I pose this as a thought outside of cannibalizing new sales...it has to be extremely lucrative, especially with the known market size as an opportunity for repair/WAAS upgrade revenue. Any business (and Garmin is no dummy) is not going to turn off that faucet when they're making mailbox money on units they last sold 5, 10, 15 years ago. 

My advice if you have a 430W/530W and are unsure if you need to upgrade or can't find affordability: Flat rate repair it the day Garmin announces and fly that thing for the rest of it's life. I'd happily take a fresh flat rate repaired 430W with no factory support. But that's me!

[Yetti]

"KX-155, introduced in the early ‘80s was able to knock the KX-170B off its pedestal."

[ArtVandelay]

3 hours ago, Avionics Source said:

 

...and Garmin is no dummy

I wouldn’t go that far.
They didn’t make the GTN tray compatible, open the door to allow IFD to walk through. Major error.

They release TXI, then G3X less than a year later. The TXI doesn’t fit a G500 hole.

Dont have an answer to G1000 users.

 

Their experimental and GP side seems much better than their certified division.

 

[MikeOH]

13 hours ago, Yetti said:

But in an irrational market where people are trained to overpay for stuff, it's what we have.

Please explain how buyers and sellers, acting at arm's length, agreeing on a price is irrational?

If you are aware of some government subsidy or other regulation interfering with the free market sales of used 430Ws I'd be interesting in hearing what it is.

Or what is this "training program" you imply exists that has "trained people" to over pay?

Merely being unhappy that you can't purchase a used 430W for the $1500 you are willing to pay does NOT make the market irrational.

[Yetti]

GNS 430 introduced in 1998.

most advanced CPU technology in 1998-2000 would be a Pentium III and about a 1.3 or 1.4GHz processor. With windows 1998 or 2000.

Now tell me how much you would pay for each of those technology items today?

Today I can buy an $11.00 USB stick that has more accuracy than the GNS430.

 

 

[Avionics Source]

Just now, Yetti said:

GNS 430 introduced in 1998.

most advanced CPU technology in 1998-2000 would be a Pentium III and about a 1.3 or 1.4GHz processor. With windows 1998 or 2000.

Now tell me how much you would pay for each of those technology items today?

Today I can buy an $11.00 USB stick that has more accuracy than the GNS430.

 

 

Was it the Sandisk or Samsung USB stick that was certified by the FAA to fly ILS approaches? I totally forgot. 

[Yetti]

3 minutes ago, Avionics Source said:

Was it the Sandisk or Samsung USB stick that was certified by the FAA to fly ILS approaches? I totally forgot. 

Does the FAA actually certify GPSs or do the manufacturers represent that their GPS meets a certain one of the 3 GPS standards?

https://www.u-blox.com/sites/default/files/products/documents/u-blox7-V14_ReceiverDescriptionProtocolSpec_(GPS.G7-SW-12001)_Public.pdf

 

[Tim Jodice]

4 minutes ago, Yetti said:

Does the FAA actually certify GPSs or do the manufacturers represent that their GPS meets a certain one of the 3 GPS standards?

https://www.u-blox.com/sites/default/files/products/documents/u-blox7-V14_ReceiverDescriptionProtocolSpec_(GPS.G7-SW-12001)_Public.pdf

 

Regardless of who does the testing The GNS series has been proven to do what it does. 

[EricJ]

53 minutes ago, MikeOH said:

Please explain how buyers and sellers, acting at arm's length, agreeing on a price is irrational?

Market bubbles happen this way.    I guess it's rational right up until everybody loses their shirt. 

[Yetti]

I think the tipping point and usually is with most technology is when enough of the newer lines of equipment start hitting the used market.  And of course Garmin has already done some of this with their 155 and 375.   Once those hit the used market the 430 line prices are going to become depressed.

[pwnel]

12 hours ago, Yetti said:

GNS 430 introduced in 1998.

most advanced CPU technology in 1998-2000 would be a Pentium III and about a 1.3 or 1.4GHz processor. With windows 1998 or 2000.

Now tell me how much you would pay for each of those technology items today?

Frankly the problem of navigation and communication has not gotten more complex compared to 1998.  You don't need a Quad core and a GPU to address the same problem.  The bloat in consumer processing power is to a fair extent driven my MS and particularly Apple bloating their operating systems to force you to keep upgrading the hardware.  My iPad mini only runs ForeFlight and was just fine when I started using it.  Now it's impossibly slow purely because of Apple's bloated iOS.

PS: What you describe above adequately describes the type of setup many military systems still uses. (Never mind the floppy disks in the nuke arsenal) 

[gsxrpilot]

I don't think the 155 and 375 are going to help Garmin at all. The trend has been towards integrating pieces into single units, i.e. the larger glass systems that include PFD/MFD/Engine monitor/gauges, etc. I like having Com/Nav/Transponder/XM Radio/etc... all in my GPS navigator. The 155 and 375 are going the wrong direction there. 

Just my amateur opinion...

[ArtVandelay]

17 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

I don't think the 155 and 375 are going to help Garmin at all. The trend has been towards integrating pieces into single units, i.e. the larger glass systems that include PFD/MFD/Engine monitor/gauges, etc. I like having Com/Nav/Transponder/XM Radio/etc... all in my GPS navigator. The 155 and 375 are going the wrong direction there. 

Just my amateur opinion...

That didn’t work well for the G1000, the problem is it’s hard to upgrade without gutting the system. It only works well if technology is stable...in past few years we’ve had WAAS, ADSB, in cockpit weather, Wifi, etc...is there new tech on the horizon?
Another amateur opinion....

[ArtVandelay]

43 minutes ago, pwnel said:

Frankly the problem of navigation and communication has not gotten more complex compared to 1998.  You don't need a Quad core and a GPU to address the same problem.  The bloat in consumer processing power is to a fair extent driven my MS and particularly Apple bloating their operating systems to force you to keep upgrading the hardware.  My iPad mini only runs ForeFlight and was just fine when I started using it.  Now it's impossibly slow purely because of Apple's bloated iOS.

Hogwash!
Actually it has, FF and GP do more than just plot your planes position. We now have traffic, weather, terrain, glide rings, dynamic maps, etc. In addition we have high resolution screens, WiFi, Bluetooth.....all this requires more CPU power and memory.

Blaming Apple for users wanting more functionality and high definition graphics is silly.  My old mini 2, which I dedicated to just running GP ran out CPU power when I started to use it with ADSB & connected it to the Flightstream. It had absolutely nothing to do with the IOS, because never bothered to update it.

[gsxrpilot]

15 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:

That didn’t work well for the G1000, the problem is it’s hard to upgrade without gutting the system. It only works well if technology is stable...in past few years we’ve had WAAS, ADSB, in cockpit weather, Wifi, etc...is there new tech on the horizon?
Another amateur opinion....

Good point on the G1000 but it seems to be an outlier to me. The Aspens, Garmin G500, and now the G3X and 500Txi are all well liked. And the GNS series is a great example where it was really the first and most successful Com/Nav/GPS/WAAS/Moving map combo unit. The IFD series and the GTN series carry on that same direction.

I just don't see 155 and 375 ever having the same appeal or staying power of the other lines.

[Yetti]

48 minutes ago, pwnel said:

Frankly the problem of navigation and communication has not gotten more complex compared to 1998.  You don't need a Quad core and a GPU to address the same problem.  The bloat in consumer processing power is to a fair extent driven my MS and particularly Apple bloating their operating systems to force you to keep upgrading the hardware.  My iPad mini only runs ForeFlight and was just fine when I started using it.  Now it's impossibly slow purely because of Apple's bloated iOS.

PS: What you describe above adequately describes the type of setup many military systems still uses. (Never mind the floppy disks in the nuke arsenal) 

We have a guy....   They still run most of the nuke plants off FORTRAN.    Makes sense since no one knows it anymore.   Makes it harder to hack.

[ArtVandelay]

6 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

Good point on the G1000 but it seems to be an outlier to me. The Aspens, Garmin G500, and now the G3X and 500Txi are all well liked. And the GNS series is a great example where it was really the first and most successful Com/Nav/GPS/WAAS/Moving map combo unit. The IFD series and the GTN series carry on that same direction.

I just don't see 155 and 375 ever having the same appeal or staying power of the other lines.

You may be right, let’s revisit this in 2030. 
Looking at the 430 screen today is like looking at old color TV vids on YouTube.....yuck! But I think we’ve come to the end, I haven’t seen the new GTN screens, but I doubt there’s that much difference.  
So what’s the next technology innovation that will drive the avionics market?  AI boxes that handle radio calls,  navigation, and autopilot functions? If I can’t get to the airport, will I just call my plane and have itself fly around;-)

[David_H]

1 minute ago, Yetti said:

We have a guy....   They still run most of the nuke plants off FORTRAN.    Makes sense since no one knows it anymore.   Makes it harder to hack.

FORTRAN is a very efficient compiled language.