Weather Decisions

[GaryP1007]

I am a conservative IFR pilot.  Meaning I always know my personal mins and I typically have a "plan B" that can be rolled out if needed.  That being said I often wonder if I am too conservative.  For example, I am flying from MA to Myrtle Beach this coming weekend.  Friday predicts steady rain.  That is the day that I plan on leaving.  Not assuming that at 8-10K feet I can get above anything.  

What are your concerns and limits when flying in rain?  Obviously I am not talking TS.....only moisture.  

Appreciate your constructive perspectives.

[201er]

  On 9/9/2015 at 2:32 PM, GaryP1007 said:

What are your concerns and limits when flying in rain?  Obviously I am not talking TS.....only moisture. 

It slows you down about 10 knots and ruins the paint. No problem flying in rain on a "need" flight but I avoid it on just for fun flights.

[M20F]

  On 9/9/2015 at 2:44 PM, 201er said:

It slows you down about 10 knots and ruins the paint. No problem flying in rain on a "need" flight but I avoid it on just for fun flights.

Same thought.  From a safety standpoint rain really isn't a huge issue but it can very quickly trash your paint.  

[Joe Zuffoletto]

I used to fly in steady rain from time to time when I lived in CA. It didn't ruin my paint, although I had TKS panels to protect my leading edges. As long as it was coming from smooth, non-convective, non-turbulent clouds and I could control the icing it never bothered me. My only preference was that ceilings would be well above minimums at my destination so I wouldn't find myself trapped in the clouds with nowhere to land.

[Bob_Belville]

Gary, my 2 cents. On the wrong side of 3 score and 10, I am much more "conservative" re weather than I was 40 years ago. It helps that I seldom "have" to get there as I often did back then. 

My main concern these days is widespread low ceilings. With NEXRAD and Stormscope it is not too hard to stay away from CBs. Flying en-route in or in & out of clouds is fine, washes off the bugs (and old paint on leading edges) and avoids the Sunday drivers down low in marginal VFR. It suits me fine to fly several hundred miles, descend through the deck and arrive via a visual approach. Sometimes conditions dictate an instrument approach which is fine as well, I probably would not have launched if there's much likelihood of having to do a missed.  

But, I have 2500+ hours in M20Es and I used to shoot ILS to minimums at night. My home field in the 70s/80s had only a NDB approach which was pretty hairy with the typical cross winds, I have taken off in zero/zero conditions. And much more, all with far inferior avionics to what we have today. I don't do stuff like that anymore. Your own experience level may make different choices more appropriate.     

[ArtVandelay]

Baby CBs don't show up on radar, but they can awfully bumpy, hard to avoid at times.

[gsengle]

I'd love to hear responses too I don't like flying through endless precip either

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[carqwik]

Heavy rain cost me an alternator once...well, I like to think it went TU because of the rain.

[Bob_Belville]

  On 9/9/2015 at 3:20 PM, teejayevans said:

Baby CBs don't show up on radar, but they can awfully bumpy, hard to avoid at times.

I think I've flown through a lot more NEXRAD color that was a smooth ride than the other way around. I have seen plenty of turbulence outside of clouds. I've never gotten in a really rough cloud when nothing was showing on the Stormscope. Just my experience,,, If by baby CDs you're talking any cumulus, I agree plowing through tops of cumulus clouds is going to be bumpy but seldom very bad at the altitudes I fly in in a NA plane.    

[Johnnybgoode]

Have a close look at the area forecast for spots along your route. I've often found the clouds overhead to be manageable based on reported tops, depending on the seasons. If they're forecast to be above 10k then I think I would have some quality 4-wheeled windshield time. I have about 8,000 hours of flying for Uncle Sam or the airlines when I had to go one way or the other. Personally I don't have to be anywhere that calls for me to fly single-engine IFR - I just drive or jumpseat on one of the airlines.

Either way I find the area forecast app to be helpful in the weather decision.

patrick

[carusoam]

When the purpose of the plane is to fly IFR...

a conservative pilot will put in the extra effort to make sure there is always a plan B. Plan C and plan D as well...

My plan A grew to include ADSB in to go with lightening strike detector.  Avoiding ice and vertical gusts are important to the health of the sheet metal under the paint...

flying IFR in heavy rain does take some getting used to.  Good to go around if you can.

air intake designs have improved over the decades.  Know which one you have and how it handles water...

GaryP, is there a reason you are not saying what plane you are flying?

 

Best regards,

 

-a-

Edited September 9, 2015 by carusoam

[flyboy0681]

As a relatively newly minted instrument pilot myself (February, 2014), I'm also very conservative and won't venture out yet into anything that is forecasted to be near minimums. I'm very comfortable flying in IMC (and really enjoy it), but when it's really bumpy I get uncomfortable, fearing I'll somehow get myself into something that I can't get out of. So the long and short of it is that while I'm still conservative, I push myself a little bit more each time so that I can get to the point where I'm ready for anything that may come my way. 

[GaryP1007]

Im flying a Piper Dakota 236 HP

[larryb]

I have found that learning how to use the skew-T chart very helpful with my weather decisions. This can tell you, relatively accurately, what the cloud tops are likely to be, what the real freezing level is, and winds. So for example, if the freezing level is 9,000 but the tops are only 5,000, I'm much more likely to go. 

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

Larry

[ArtVandelay]

  On 9/9/2015 at 3:35 PM, Bob_Belville said:

I think I've flown through a lot more NEXRAD color that was a smooth ride than the other way around. I have seen plenty of turbulence outside of clouds. I've never gotten in a really rough cloud when nothing was showing on the Stormscope. Just my experience,,, If by baby CDs you're talking any cumulus, I agree plowing through tops of cumulus clouds is going to be bumpy but seldom very bad at the altitudes I fly in in a NA plane.    

I meant building cumulus with tops that are only 10k give or take, and if they are widespread you can't avoid them. I'm with flyboy, IMC is one thing, turbulence is another.

[Marauder]

  On 9/9/2015 at 2:32 PM, GaryP1007 said:

I am a conservative IFR pilot.  Meaning I always know my personal mins and I typically have a "plan B" that can be rolled out if needed.  That being said I often wonder if I am too conservative.  For example, I am flying from MA to Myrtle Beach this coming weekend.  Friday predicts steady rain.  That is the day that I plan on leaving.  Not assuming that at 8-10K feet I can get above anything.  

What are your concerns and limits when flying in rain?  Obviously I am not talking TS.....only moisture.  

Appreciate your constructive perspectives.

The only issues I have seen flying into rain is if you have unknown leaks in the plane... Not a good time to find out if your door seal leaks.

As others pointed, as long as the cloud is not showing any storm potential, the risk is low.

For my minimums, like Bob, I have gotten a bit more conservative as I got older. I want a 1000' ceilings in route or not cross more than 10 to 20 miles of low ceilings. You have one bad experience dealing with that, you have a tendency to change your perspective.

I also am a firm believer of the 3Cs;

Current -- I always make sure that I am legally current to fly IFR. Typically a no brainer but if I haven't flown to maintain legal currency for the past 5 months and 28 days, I'm not going to launch with only a few days left and think I am legally current. Because if I did, it would lead to my second C

Competent -- like anything else in life, if you don't practice it enough, you will get rusty. I may be legal but am I competent to fly this particular flight? If I haven't shot approaches to near minimums recently and there is a chance of encountering low conditions, am I competent to do so? If I think I do and am not, I may have a problem with my third C.

Confident -- I sum this up as the all the factors that lead me to a go/no go decision. If I am confident that I can do the trip, I should be feeling okay, not tired, not stressed about things in life. As well, is my plane up to snuff? The equipment all working okay?

Hopefully this helps a bit.

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[donkaye, MCFI]

Nowadays it is pretty easy to make go no go decisions.  Freezing levels below 6,000 feet with no TKS and convective activity greater than isolated and the briefing is over. No go for me. Convective activity and 3,000 pound airplanes don't mix well.  With some exceptions flying in the morning between 6 and 12 is most likely to produce the best results.  The AOPA weather has been satisfactory for me for the past 5 years or so.  First I'll check US Satellite for cloud cover and lightning.  If lightning along the route and no short deviations around it then the briefing is over--a no go.  Next I check the Nexrad Chart.  Anything greater than dark green along my path with no extensive deviations around it and it's a no go.  Then I'll look at the winds aloft from the ground to 18,000 feet.  The latter shows the the direction of movement of any systems.  By now i have a pretty good idea of the type of flight it will be.  Next I'll look at the Prog charts, then the Sigmets, Airmets, and Convective Outlook.  From the above it's pretty easy to make the decision.

I won't fly in heavy precipitation.  Been there, done that, don't like it.  It destroys the paint, and heavy precip usually means some type of frontal activity, turbulence and an uncomfortable ride for passengers.  I'm not going there anymore.

Regarding minimums; flying to them is fine as long as you make sure the altimeter is properly set and there is an above minimum alternate within regulation distance from your destination airport.

Regarding Nexrad colors; I've tried yellow a couple of times--no more.  Dark green is my maximum fly through and that for only short periods of time.

After reviewing all the above, if I still am unsure about going, the decision is made--don't go.

Having said all the above, I won't go without XM and/or FIS-B and Stormscope if any anticipated weather could present an issue.

Edited September 9, 2015 by donkaye

[Oldguy]

Also being a fairly new IR pilot, I limit myself to green or lighter NEXRAD weather to fly in. Without the TKS leading edges, the rain does take off paint - especially 20+ year old kind - and can be somewhat nerve wracking if the bulk of your experience has been VFR like mine. I am comfortable with approaches NEAR minimums, but until I get some additional IMC under my belt, my personal minimums are higher than the FAA's. Besides, I've diverted to some really nice FBOs to wait out weather in the past.

There are several of us who fly together and it is not uncommon for us to text each other about their thoughts on our planned flight. If someone sees something the others don't, we feel comfortable bringing it up to them. If it is still a toss up after the "brain trust" has talked it over, the final question is "If this flight ends badly and someone reads about it in an NTSB report, would they shake their head and ask what in the world the pilot was thinking when he launched in that weather?". The answer to that question makes the final decision simple for me.

John

[DonMuncy]

  On 9/9/2015 at 9:56 PM, Oldguy said:

 

There are several of us who fly together and it is not uncommon for us to text each other about their thoughts on our planned flight. If someone sees something the others don't, we feel comfortable bringing it up to them.

Be careful here. Human nature is funny sometimes. If I'm are having some doubts, I text Joe. Joe, not wanting to look like a wimp, says it will probably OK. I don't want to be a bigger wimp than Joe, say I say I think it is OK too. So, we have both talked each other into something neither of us really feel good about.

[ArtVandelay]

Just as important as the color is the trend, is green becoming yellow or vice versa, given the age of the radar green could be red by the time you fly through it

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[Cruiser]

Gary, I am curious as to why you phrased your question the way it was asked?

Is there something specific you are concerned about?

[Piloto]

My best advice for summer flights is to start your trip early in the morning. Planning to arrive before 2pm. 

José

[Bob_Belville]

These flights and similar should not be a big deal if you have NEXRAD and more importantly Stormscope. At no point in either flight did I see more than light turbulence. And very little of that. At least in the East it is pretty rare to have CBs widespread and un-skirt-able. 

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N943RW/history/20150528/2100Z/8A0/KMRN

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N943RW/history/20150727/1500Z/KLNS/KMRN

[Danb]

I'm in Don M's and Chris camp all I'd add to them is if I need to say if or maybe ... But,...if..it's a no.

 

im looking at wx right now for the MAPA pilot prof. This weekend in AC. I've noticed a few Mooneys arrived today, I wish I were one of them.

being only 60 miles from AC may be tempting, but ( another word that means no go) means I'll look for a few hours of wx. Within my limits or as I told my wife be ready for Friday instead of Thursday.

we need to put the planning in the short flights as well as the longer ones even when familiar to the surrounding area.

is that to conservative ( no such thing)

 

 

 

[DXB]

  On 9/9/2015 at 10:32 PM, DonMuncy said:

Be careful here. Human nature is funny sometimes. If I'm are having some doubts, I text Joe. Joe, not wanting to look like a wimp, says it will probably OK. I don't want to be a bigger wimp than Joe, say I say I think it is OK too. So, we have both talked each other into something neither of us really feel good about.

I'm too green to have done this yet in aviation- but I can see it happening to me.  I've definitely fallen into this trap in other spheres, with deep regret.  The worst variant is when the person from whom you're seeking advice doesn't have as much at stake. Not hard to sound experienced and courageous when it's not your ass on the line...