Corona Virus Carrier

[Gagarin]

Assuming you get the Corona Virus and recover from it are you still a carrier of it even though you are now immune to it with no symptoms?

You could be passing to others the virus (wife, kids, family and friends) without knowing. 

Does your immunity to the virus last pass 70 years old? 

If the above is a reality of the virus mankind lifespan could be reduced in less than a century to 67 years of age. Big savings for the government on Social Security and Medicare.

[Niko182]

I dont think thats the case. healthy people over 70 have survived.

[Hank]

There's no reason to expect immunity to COVID-19 to be any different than immunity to any other corona virus from a cold to flu to SARS. Or the viruses that cause smallpox, malaria, mumps, etc. Contracting and recovering from this one won't make someone the next Typhoid Mary any more than recovering from the flu will.

The media are treating this like it's the Black Death come again, but even Dr. Oz says avoid sick people, stay home if you're sick, wash your hands with soap and warm water, and don't touch your mouth, eyes and nose a whole lot . . . .

[Hank]

1 minute ago, Niko182 said:

I dont think thats the case. healthy people over 70 have survived.

As posted here by a doctor, mortality rates for people aged 80+ is running just over 4%.

[aviatoreb]

18 minutes ago, Hank said:

....and don't touch your mouth, eyes and nose a whole lot . . . .

Whenever I hear don’t touch your face - my face itches!  Stop saying that!

[Gagarin]

7 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Whenever I hear don’t touch your face - my face itches!  Stop saying that!

Is a good advice for teenagers to avoid acne. It also helps to wash your face in the morning and in the evening.

[Hank]

21 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Whenever I hear don’t touch your face - my face itches!  Stop saying that!

I didn't say, "don’t touch your face." I said, "don't touch your mouth, eyes and nose a whole lot." Similar, but different . . . . As a professional mathematician, you should understand the difference!    My wife's cousin the math professor enjoys parsing my grammar, even though the rules for speaking are much more relaxed than for writing.

if it makes your face itch, your doctor has a cream for that . . .   

[ilovecornfields]

A “carrier” is someone who has the infection but does not show signs of disease:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymptomatic_carrier
 

Carriers can infect others but will not know they have the disease unless they are tested.

If you get the virus and then recover (as almost all do) you will still shed virus particles and be infectious for some time (they’re still trying to nail down exactly what that time period is).

The 14 day quarantine comes from the “incubation period” which is the time between when you are exposed to the disease and when you become symptomatic. You are infectious during this incubation period, but you will not have symptoms. The incubation for COVID-19 is usually between 6-8 days but can be as long as 14. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incubation_period

 

[Gagarin]

To avoid contact with others with the virus avoid public transportation and instead use your own car or plane.

[tmo]

Well, the whole Corona Virus thing has been called the world's biggest work from home experiment, not without some merit.

[aviatoreb]

7 hours ago, Hank said:

I didn't say, "don’t touch your face." I said, "don't touch your mouth, eyes and nose a whole lot." Similar, but different . . . . As a professional mathematician, you should understand the difference!    My wife's cousin the math professor enjoys parsing my grammar, even though the rules for speaking are much more relaxed than for writing.

if it makes your face itch, your doctor has a cream for that . . .   

You did it again stop saying don't touch your face!  Now my nose itches!

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by aviatoreb

[Hank]

51 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

You did it again stop saying don't touch your face!  Now my nose itches!

You remind me of The Knights Who Say Ni!

[aviatoreb]

16 minutes ago, Hank said:

You remind me of The Knights Who Say Ni!

Ichy Ichy Kapang Kapang please.

[tigers2007]

I’ve been sick for about three months. Had the death flu and for the last 2.5mos I’ve had shortness of breath; feels like heavy pressure on chest all the time. Tired and weak. Dr’s have slammed me with meds and don’t know what’s going on. All I know is that I did a lot of intermixing with Wuhan Plague travellers at DTW (multiple daily flights to CN). I work at a hospital and they aren’t really saying much either as I hack and cough all day.

[donkaye]

1 hour ago, tigers2007 said:

I’ve been sick for about three months. Had the death flu and for the last 2.5mos I’ve had shortness of breath; feels like heavy pressure on chest all the time. Tired and weak. Dr’s have slammed me with meds and don’t know what’s going on. All I know is that I did a lot of intermixing with Wuhan Plague travellers at DTW (multiple daily flights to CN). I work at a hospital and they aren’t really saying much either as I hack and cough all day.

Have you been tested for the virus?

[flyboy0681]

"Male with coronavirus seeks female with lyme disease".

[tigers2007]

47 minutes ago, donkaye said:

Have you been tested for the virus?

Negative.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, tigers2007 said:

Negative.

Can you please be more precise? "Negative, I was not tested" vs "Test results were negative"?????

[tigers2007]

Can you please be more precise? "Negative, I was not tested" vs "Test results were negative"?????

One of those


J/k. Negative I was not tested.

[bradp]

Singapore cohort found viral shedding up to 24 days after diagnosis.  
Given an incubation period of up to 14 days that can be a long time shedding virus.  
I need to read the full paper to understand if testing was done prior to or after development of symptoms.  
 

Let’s compare to an estimated mortality of 10% during the 1918 flu pandemic.  They didnt have oxygen ventilators or intensive care in 1918.  Just a wet rag and a prayer.  Add 100 years, significant advances in healthcare technology and we’re somewhere between 3-5% mortality for this virus.  The long incubation period and long time of viral shedding is the concern with this bug.  
 

[ilovecornfields]

12 minutes ago, bradp said:

Singapore cohort found viral shedding up to 24 days after diagnosis.  
Given an incubation period of up to 14 days that can be a long time shedding virus.  
I need to read the full paper to understand if testing was done prior to or after development of symptoms.  
 

Let’s compare to an estimated mortality of 10% during the 1918 flu pandemic.  They didnt have oxygen ventilators or intensive care in 1918.  Just a wet rag and a prayer.  Add 100 years, significant advances in healthcare technology and we’re somewhere between 3-5% mortality for this virus.  The long incubation period and long time of viral shedding is the concern with this bug.  
 

Great site! I just listened to his COVID-19 intubation podcast on the way to work this morning. He has one of the best descriptions of the pathophysiology of COVID-19 that I've seen thus far. Seems like a combination of ARDS and myocarditis is what's making people so sick. Definitely interesting times.

 

P.S.- Just heard San Diego has a confirmed case...

Edited March 10, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[tigers2007]

paging @Yooper Rocketman check this out: https://www.9and10news.com/2020/03/10/bay-mills-indian-community-2-employees-possibly-exposed-to-coronavirus/

Its possibly arrived in the U.P. of all places. I might have to climb under my rock and idle for a couple more weeks.

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, bradp said:

Let’s compare to an estimated mortality of 10% during the 1918 flu pandemic.  They didnt have oxygen ventilators or intensive care in 1918.  Just a wet rag and a prayer.  Add 100 years, significant advances in healthcare technology and we’re somewhere between 3-5% mortality for this virus.  The long incubation period and long time of viral shedding is the concern with this bug.  

A danger would be if the healthcare system were to become dramatically overwhelmed to the point that there simply are no more beds in hospitals and maybe even the healthcare workers are significantly impacted with their own illnesses, then our modern high intensive but high human-hours intensive methods might simply become mostly unavailable, in which case, we would be right back at 1918 level of home care.

[Greg Ellis]

5 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

A danger would be if the healthcare system were to become dramatically overwhelmed to the point that there simply are no more beds in hospitals and maybe even the healthcare workers are significantly impacted with their own illnesses, then our modern high intensive but high human-hours intensive methods might simply become mostly unavailable, in which case, we would be right back at 1918 level of home care.

The danger right now is that the grocery stores around here are out of toilet paper!!!! 

[bradp]

I take care of kids in an ICU setting.  Issue is not so much with disease state in children (so far seems mild for kids on a population scale), but as a potential carrier pool.   Kids carry multiple viruses at any one time.  Current health department screening algorithms exclude COVID screening if another virus is detected.  Most kids with respiratory symptoms carry multiple pathogens.  You’re going to miss a big carrier pool by excluding kids from testing.   
 

One kid with that virus that arrives undiagnosed would likely close the unit, quarantine 40% of the day or night nursing staff and significantly impact ability to deliver care.  I fear that with the current public health guidance there is a “let’s wait till it’s here locally” approach to screening and proper PPE provisioning.  
 

The hospital I work at ran short of surgical masks yesterday.  These are not the N95 respirators used for COVID19.  Just regular masks for flu etc.  The system is already stretched as thin as possible.   The hospitals are already at capacity for winter respiratory viruses- flu seems to be of high prevalence.  The Toyota inspired cost cutting and efficiency principles like “just in time” and “lean” that all the middle tier MBAs (who run hospitals) subscribe to so heavily to are about to come crashing down on the healthcare system in a big way.