The problem with better weather products

[ArtVandelay]

Remember when we would just check the forecast for whether it would be raining.

 

I am checking the weather for a cross country to San Francisco area, and see this, should I be worried:

[Skates97]

For me it would depend on where you were coming from and the route you are taking. I wouldn't want to be east of the Sierra Nevada's with those winds and if I was planning one of my normal flights from SoCal up to Salt Lake I wouldn't go, but you don't have any high peaks to the west of there to generate the mountain wave and you can cruise much lower. In fact at our fly-in at Harris Ranch a month ago I enjoyed about a 30 knot tail wind on the trip back to the LA area down the central valley (Fresno/Bakersfield area in your pic) at 9,500' and it was smooth as glass.

If you look at the lower level winds they are much tamer and flowing with the few low ridges along the coast, not perpendicular to them.

[ilovecornfields]

I would be more worried about the icing and turbulence PIREPS than the stuff on Windy. @Scott Dennstaedt can probably give you a real answer, though. 

[Immelman]

Screw that, wait a day.

Or take a more analytical approach: Learn from others, and then take that into account the next time this comes up. From the comfort of your living room, compare that windy forecast with the pireps in the are when the time comes. Note who is giving what type of pirep, and at what altitude. Is severe reported? Is a sigmet issued? What do the terminal forecasts give for clues:

KSFO 201739Z 2018/2124 28011KT P6SM FEW030 FEW180
  FM201900 32017G27KT P6SM SKC
  FM210000 31010KT P6SM SKC WS020/02030KT

The above terminal forecast is for the area this evening... and there are a ton of moderate pireps in the area from a variety of aircraft sizes.... windy.com, 5 days out... that is a bit of a stretch, especially considering 100+ mph @ 14,000. In the next couple days the NWS will have their tools to compare things to. I would not scrub your trip yet, but look and see how things develop.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Immelman

[carusoam]

Perfect for a Johnathan Paul Cross country to Georgia, non-stop, on one tank of fuel...

Staying in the high speed tailwinds seems to be getting easier with in-cockpit technology.

Best regards,

-a-

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 11/20/2019 at 12:11 PM, ilovecornfields said:

I would be more worried about the icing and turbulence PIREPS than the stuff on Windy. @Scott Dennstaedt can probably give you a real answer, though. 

Agreed.  The Windy app has a very slick depiction of the winds.  Pleasing to the eye...could look at it all day, but it's not what *I* use to make good decisions.    

[ArtVandelay]

I was to sneak in early on Monday at 4500’ and only light chop, afternoon there were pireps of moderate and severe turbulence.


Tom