What do you think of this crazy J??

[carusoam]

Fun stuff while the economy is moving into its next phase....

• The Great Recession was a decade ago...
• The Mooney factory has updated their planes.
• The Mooney factory is still open and still supports its old planes.
• An IO360 is still a modern airplane engine.

 

• The Federal Open Market Committee had a meeting today.
• The new Chairman of the federal reserve bank, Jerome Powell (no more Janet Yellen) announced the overnight interest rate increase of another 1/4%...
• There are expected to be a few more this year and next...
• Banks will be raising their interest rates accordingly.
• Unemployment stayed low this quarter at around 4.1%.
• The number of peoples participating in the workforce has climbed.
• Inflation stayed low at less than 2%.
• The President has been touting how well the stock market has been performing.
• There are going to be people with a few excess dollars because of all of this good news.

 

• People are discussing openly the plane’s they are looking to buy.
• two people in this thread are discussing a very similar purchase.

 

• Assigning a price to any one plane has interesting parts...
• what the plane has and its condition, is one part.
• How Many people are interested in buying it, is the market force part.
• Simple competition between to people drives up the price when the chips are down.
• who wants it more?  Who can afford that desire?
• As the price gets driven up, other things become options, like Missiles, Ks, Eagles, Os....
• At this rate, The only thing that drives prices down is excess supply of planes in the market.
• They aren’t building anymore used M20Js...
• A cap on the expensive plane’s price is high interest rates... a pilot that can afford a monthly payment has to cover the costs of a loan that is both principle and interest... the higher the interest, the lower the principle that can be afforded is...

Did anyone mention that spring is the buying and selling season?

This is because many people are thinking the same thing.  Winter is a terrible time to be outside, trying to buy or sell anything... 

Quick, buy the plane, then sit back and enjoy what is left of this bull market...

Nothing lasts for ever.  But some Mooneys are 60 years young this year...!

Bull markets extend into Bear markets.

Remember back when Stock prices rose each time a company announced their giant lay-offs of tens of thousands of people, triumphantly? We haven’t gotten there yet...

Recessions come when the interest rates rise too sharply. Costs grow, people stop buying things... auto catalytic economic disaster...

Inflation is the opposite... Prices rises too sharply compared to incomes...

Remember back when Candy Bars went for a dime to a quarter? And your allowance stayed the same...? The size got slightly larger, the label trumpeted 10% More!

Another goofy thing that happens with airplanes and prices and availability... unlike a house, planes and money are both fungible.  They can be moved and spent in or to the city that makes the most sense... try that with a house... 

Don’t rush the process... PPIs are still a good expense.

PP thoughts only, not an economist or a plane salesguy...

I think I may have stayed at a Holiday In in TX while buying the O in 2010... strange days back then...

Does the economic situation get any better than this for buying a plane?

Best regards,

-a-

 

 

[Rmag]

On my M20J 205 SE, Down low 50° ROP 24 squared which is about 10.5 to 11.2 depending on temp I can see 155 kts true.  At a cruise altitude same settings at whatever manifold pressure I can attain, I’ve seen 160 kts true.  Never seen 165 kts true. 

[amillet]

4 hours ago, jetdriven said:

That’s got to be the highest priced J I’ve ever seen.  That’s A36TN money. My buddy Jim’s N33YZ was every bit that plane less the engine and it only brought mid 110s. I wish him well but it looks like he added up all his costs and listed it for that. 

Our 1997 J comes in right at $197,000 on both VREF and the Mooney Flyer valuation tool.

230 SFRB.  2035 TTAF.  GTN 750

[Marauder]

Wow!  Thank you everyone for their feedback. Lots to think about. 

You have been subjected to a mild version of the Cheap Bast$#d Club. The same group that if you check their pockets you would find corroded green pennies.

Do a lot of research and don’t get enamored with pretty paint or interiors. You’re looking for a well kept plane, with upgrades/updates you feel you want or need and priced correctly.


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[ArtVandelay]

How many planes are being built each year?
How many are being scrapped or are in decay sitting on the ramp?
How many new pilots become buyers?

[mooniac15u]

18 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

I guess my point was that this is a 1987 model year and the person who ordered it opted for a KAP 100 at a time when the KAP 150 was already a mature product. What was the difference in cost at the time?

Based on a previous listing for this aircraft I think it was a "Lean Machine" version of the 201 which had low-end avionics.

[flyboy0681]

10 hours ago, carusoam said:

Fun stuff while the economy is moving into its next phase....

• The Federal Open Market Committee had a meeting today.
• The new Chairman of the federal reserve bank, Jerome Powell (no more Janet Yellen) announced the overnight interest rate increase of another 1/4%...
• There are expected to be a few more this year and next...
• Banks will be raising their interest rates accordingly.
• Unemployment stayed low this quarter at around 4.1%.
• The number of peoples participating in the workforce has climbed.
• Inflation stayed low at less than 2%.
• The President has been touting how well the stock market has been performing.
• There are going to be people with a few excess dollars because of all of this good news.

 

It doesn't sound like you are very bullish on the future economy. I think there are great days ahead because I was told that if the tax bill passed the country would experience 4% growth year-over-year for at least the next ten years.

[jetdriven]

It needs to be. Somehow we have to justify those 1.3T annual deficits for the foreseeable future. 

[PTK]

18 hours ago, BodyshopDave said:

Wow!  Thank you everyone for their feedback. Lots to think about. 

The best general advice I can offer to you if I may is the same that was offered to me when I was looking for my airplane. And that is resist the temptation and don't fall in love with the first one you see. Look at several and look for reasons to reject them. After a while the list of candidates narrows as the right ones start talking to you.

Now in regards to this particular airplane.  IMO the premium asking price does not reflect and disagrees with its less than premium reality. The factory reman engine installed in 2012 although sounds good, means absolutely nothing in view of the very recent damage from sudden engine stoppage in 2014. You need to find out, in great detail, what the damage was and how it was repaired. At under 300 hours it is very recent and safety critical. 

A couple other things stand out to me which may or may not be important to you. One is the Aspens. As capable as they are they are old tech and, unfortunately, there is no upgrade path presently. As there is with the legacy G500 for example. That would be one issue I'd weigh very carefully and know what you’re getting into. The other is the lack of ADS-B in. These are details which stand out to me on an airplane with a premium asking price. 

[mccdeuce]

Another item that really stands out to me is the useful load. I have close to 1000# in my 78 J and I like knowing I could put that much in even though I don’t usually. 

Also as PTK says there is currently noupgrade for the Aspens and the avionics world is not very clear at the moment. There is nothing to say that with Dynon getting their STC that Garmin won’t follow suit with G3 and Aspens will be worth only half their current value. 

At the end of the day the value the plane is worth is only what you are willing to spend on her. 

[bradp]

I’d put it in the 125-135 range.  

Where is the UL hiding on this plane?  The prop?  Usually with glass you recover a decent bit of UL.  My 77 has exactly 1000# of UL.  This thing either needs a weighing or something doesn’t add up.  

It will probably true out at 155-158 “in the red box” ie not where you want to be operating it. 

Arguably the nicest fully upgraded J in the fleet is @Rmag   I think his was a showcase and not for sale but you can probably put a valuation on it and it would be in the neighborhood for what they are asking for this J... 

This is an 80k plane with a 400 hr engine and a gear up.  It probably has 90k of P/I and avionics.  ... 

[LANCECASPER]

A good one to compare it to might be this one that doesn't have the upgrades and see what it would cost to do some of those things - same year, etc

https://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft/for-sale/24751453/1987-mooney-m20j-201?OHID=24751453

[LANCECASPER]

23 hours ago, BodyshopDave said:

Yeah. I thought that sounded a little high too...it’ll do what it’ll do right?

I saw that regarding the autopilot too.  Not ideal, but I assume it would work ok. 

Here's a Mooney ad from November 1987. They were making a basic IFR 201 back then and advertising it for $98,900 with an autopilot (KAP100).

[Steve W]

1 hour ago, bradp said:

 

Where is the UL hiding on this plane?  The prop?  Usually with glass you recover a decent bit of UL.  My 77 has exactly 1000# of UL.  This thing either needs a weighing or something doesn’t add up.  

 

Just before the 2900lb increase, 3 blade, still has vacuum to drive the KAP 100 attitude indicator, can't tell if it might have the electric vacuum backup, that's heavy too. All the autopilot servos etc. Weight is probably actually not too far off.

[bradp]

Adjusted for inflation the cost of a J in 2018 dollars would be $223k, a 252 would have been around $370k for a ton of airplane at the time.  These days a Cessna 172 new is a $300k plus prospect.  And they wonder why GA is dying a slow death... 

[KSMooniac]

Adjusted for inflation the cost of a J in 2018 dollars would be $223k, a 252 would have been around $370k for a ton of airplane at the time.  These days a Cessna 172 new is a $300k plus prospect.  And they wonder why GA is dying a slow death... 

$379k for a 172 now. Absolutely nuts.

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[bradp]

I have the original bill of sale from my J including a folder with the original purchaser’s search for an airplane.  It’s cool to see the old classified clippings, the handwritten notes during the search.  There wasn’t a huge jump going from late model Fs to a new J so he took the plunge.  Pretty cool.  But that was then... 

[MIm20c]

IMO plane values are at the peak of what you will see over the next 30 years (minus inflation). Really cheap fuel, sky high stock market, and easy/cheap loans.  

[flyboy0681]

Just now, MIm20c said:

IMO plane values are at the peak of what you will see over the next 30 years (minus inflation). Really cheap fuel, sky high stock market, and easy/cheap loans.  

Not so sure about the "really cheap" fuel, it's started to creep up. Last year I used to fill up at 2IS, which is the cheapest self-serve in the area,  for $3.35/gal. Now it's up to $4.85. Add to the mix that this is tank is county run, not an FBO.

[MIm20c]

1 minute ago, flyboy0681 said:

Not so sure about the "really cheap" fuel, it's started to creep up. Last year I used to fill up at 2IS, which is the cheapest self-serve in the area,  for $3.35/gal. Now it's up to $4.85. Add to the mix that this is tank is county run, not an FBO.

You’re looking at it. This is specialized fuel sold in very small quantities. FBO or county run you still need to make a small profit to cover the expensive equipment and liability of providing it.  If the price doubled it would be more in line with what it will be in 5-10 years. 

[gsxrpilot]

It's interesting to me to see the delta between the 201's and 252's back when both were new. I'd say the 201's have held their value much better than the 252's. 

I wouldn't trade my 252 for a 201 but I can see why the 201's are just more popular today.

[M016576]

1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

It's interesting to me to see the delta between the 201's and 252's back when both were new. I'd say the 201's have held their value much better than the 252's. 

I wouldn't trade my 252 for a 201 but I can see why the 201's are just more popular today.

Even more so with the ovations and Bravos...    from a price/inflation standpoint, the J does seem to be the best investment... or at least it’s held it’s value the best

[Urs_Wildermuth]

It is always astonishing that people who try to sell their planes here get this kind of flack, too high price, something must be wrong, e.t.c. Wonder if those who simply half prices here will like it when they try to sell theirs.

This one looks like a lovely J model which has had exceptional upgrades and also looks well cared for. Looking at the upgrades, they are alone an investment of over 100k I'd think, plus low time engine and prop, leather interior, dual aspens e.t.c. PPI nonwithstanding this appears to me like a J which can be bought and flown away without any major upgrades pending for years. It also looks very nice and is in excellent condition by the ad.

As was shown, the valuation of Jimmy Garrison's tool is not that far off, so why are people here flaming the guy? Clearly he has priced it for what it is worth to him, but I don't think it is that far off. He must expect that he will get an offer of maybe 10-20% below but personally I think for a near as good as new J it is not completely off the scale.

So to answer to OP's question, I personally think you can't go much wrong with this airplane if you are looking for a fly away plane which has all the big mods and upgrades done by now. Based on the valuation tool, you can try to get it to maybe 145k or so but that should be fair enough, provided no show stoppers appear during the PPI.

In general re forums and opinions about airplanes, what has been bugging me for a while now is how people look at airframes. For the better part of a decade now it was a buyers market to the point of impertinence. I know of folks who had to sell (not only Mooney but also others) and had to sometimes almost give their well cared for and well equipped planes away because there were no takers. On the other hand, people buy low priced money pits which will require massive maintenance before they can reasonably fly it followed by upgrades. That is a lot of work and effort involved too. Clearly, who wants a "clean sheet" airplane to update, there is nothing wrong with buying a J with original avionics and bad paint for 10k and then upgrade it, but incidently, such "finds" are also slammed by the community often enough with "don't walk, run!!" At the same time, if owners have done the work and kept the planes clean and upgraded, they are "wife pacifyers" or are overpricing their airplane for emotional reasons? Even though running the plane through the valuation tools give approximately close values?

So what is it gonna be? Do we want our market to keep on the low level where reasonable planes are deemed almost worthless just because it does not have all the bells and whistles but those who are are then deemed overpriced or wife-pacifier adds? Do we want people to start parting out sound airframes because they get more money for the avionics, engine and prop than for a good airframe?

Last year I put my C model up for sale for a while because it looked like I would not have time to fly it, it was priced at the level of the valuation tool plus the additional stuff the tool did not have then (they recently added Aspens e.t.c.). Right now, the tool gives me a value of $65k. I got inquiries with suggested offers between 10k and 20k which were insulting to say the least, clearly folks were trying to see just how desparate I was to sell. Telling me "it's a C so what do you want" but it is a C with low time engine and prop, Aspen PFD, 430W, RNP1 certified and all that, so no difference to a C with a 360 channel com and run out engine? Thankfully I could take it off the market after a short time, but I wonder what will happen if I ever loose my medical or so and have to sell? Will people still try to pull a fast one over me or will they honour the work and effort and money I spent to offer a plane which for them will be considerably less trouble to upgrade and restore than it was for me? I know business is not fair, but I think within the Mooney community at least some fairness would be beneficial to all of us.

 

[kmyfm20s]

15 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

It's interesting to me to see the delta between the 201's and 252's back when both were new. I'd say the 201's have held their value much better than the 252's. 

I wouldn't trade my 252 for a 201 but I can see why the 201's are just more popular today.

The buying pool will always be greater for NA engines. Mostly because of insurance requirements but also because of simplicity for the average pilot. 

[flyboy0681]

1 hour ago, Urs_Wildermuth said:

It is always astonishing that people who try to sell their planes here get this kind of flack, too high price, something must be wrong, e.t.c. Wonder if those who simply half prices here will like it when they try to sell theirs.

 

I'm on the record here as saying that the seller was in the ballpark, having myself pored over dozens of listings earlier this year and seeing just how much dreck is out there.