Unexpected Icing

[Marauder]

I started my trip to Kerrville this morning. Was going to spend a few days in Kerrville and the Mooney factory tour. A whole different thread, this is about icing..

I've watched the weather with a vengeance, took a look at all the usual weather sources with diligence. The trip was looking "iffy" as far as clouds and overcast..still MVFR conditions with conditions looking to improve later today. We actually moved our departure time up to 10 am central giving the clouds even more time to lift and temps to rise. The route was KDYR-M18-KTPL-KERV.

As we leave Dyersburg it was in the 40s outside and we knew we would be flying low altitude for a while until the clouds really lifted and parted, according to all the weather sites and briefs it was predicted to lift to solid VFR later in the day the entire route. It would be low altitude, but VFR.

All is well and we are flying along at about 3000', staying below the clouds. The clouds were very tall so climbing above to get out of the moisture was not an option. There was obvious moisture in the air as we got some residual on the windshield, but still MVFR conditions. As we get south of Little Rock we start to notice icing, it was starting to accumulate on the wing leading edge pretty quickly..The Aspen was showing 32 outside air temp. There was about ( I'm just guessing), but thinking about 1/4" of ice covering leading edge of both wings full length and getting thicker in certain places. We had been in the air maybe an 1.2 hrs and still had about another 45 minutes to go before our fuel stop.  

The obvious choice would be to go to a lower altitude for warmer temps..we were already around 3000' so that was not really an option, the E model does not have boots so...short of returning to warming climate (back home) were I knew temps were warmer, less moisture and less clouds..was there any other options that I might have considered other than landing someplace close when I noticed the ice and waiting it out. Climbing higher would have not gained anything ( I don't think) since there was so much moisture just in the air. 

In the end I did decide to head back to Dyersburg and called the trip a bust because of icing. Pushing through would have been catastrophic, I'm sure the ice would have continued to build, If I went higher there was still clouds and moisture and even colder temps.

I headed home kept altitude as low as legal and safe seeking warmer air temps. As we turned back we could see ice falling off the leading edges and by the time I was back to KDYR there was little to no ice left.

I flown in New England snow storms as a low time pilot years ago, not a big deal. Flown through rain etc.. no big deal, but I'll admit I've never seen ice accumulate that fast within an hour and half. Pretty amazing and eye opening. I know some will suggest IFR and so forth..yes, I'm working on it, but this was in MVFR and VFR conditions. I was surprised to see the ice accumulate so quickly. I did not see any changes of the handling or characteristics of the plane.

We aborted the trip and called the good folks at Mooney and told them we had icing in the area..They were very understanding and said we could reschedule when we were ready..

Any other ideas that might have helped the icing or what would you have done? Just curious if I overlooked the obvious. By turning back and getting to warm weather we missed the vacation, but live to fly another day..

 

-Tom    

Tom -- it sounds like you ran into some sort of virga. I think you said you were VFR. I flew for years in western NY and encountered freezing rain, sleet and even wet snow -- all outside of the clouds. It can scare the jeepers out of you. Knowing where warm air is, is always the easiest out.

Mike's reference to the skew-Ts and José's weather site are good predictive tools but I have found icing has a mind of its own at times. When I flew IFR in WNY, I would always look for cloud tops and if they were more than a couple thousand of feet thick and not outside of the icing temp zones, I would just not go. Same for flying an approach. If I knew I was going to be in the clouds at my destination for any period of time, I would err on the side of caution about taking the trip.

Mike's skew-Ts can show expected cloud tops. This information along with actual PIREPs of cloud tops, could have put you on top of the stuff you were under. Winter flying can be fun but it also can be a pain in the big butt. Good decision.

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[thinwing]

My thought exactly...you were vfr and clear of clouds correct?That leaves freezing rain as your ice source...since you are non ifr ,your only choice is the life saving 180  back to where it wasn't raining / ice forming..

.

[Deb]

Tom,

You most certainly did the right thing. On our trips if we're not on an IFR flight plan, we usually use flight following. This provides an opportunity to give a quick PIREP (they already have all the information for a PIREP except the conditions you're reporting). We try to do that on our cross country flights, particularly if we encounter conditions which were not forecast or are hazardous, and to give cloud tops and bases.

Since "Flight Watch" (122.0 MHz) has been decommissioned, if you're not talking with a controller you can still get weather from local flight service frequencies or from 122.2 MHz (for example "Jonesboro Radio"). You can also give them a PIREP but you'll have to tell them your type aircraft, location, etc.

Another quick way to give a PIREP is to use the app Aerovie. It was written by Bryan Heitman who's a pilot. The free version is specifically designed to easily submit a PIREP – you just tap on the conditions you're reporting and the app takes care generating the PIREP format and submits it when it gets a network connection.

[Guest]

You did the right thing turning back.  We are now having a discussion about the weather, not the loss of another pilot and plane in a crash.

In more than 30 years in aviation I've only lost one client to a crash, ironically to icing in a Mooney.

Clarence

[M016576]

We are all quick to praise in cockpit weather resources (and they are awesome and a game changer, certainly) but I think we've hit on something here: enough time has elapsed that some of the "old techniques" are becoming foggy.... like getting in flight weather briefings through the FSS (what used to be flight watch).  It's still a valid technique, and as mentioned above, may have information that the xm weather or ADSB isn't showing.  Also, controllers may have pirep data in front of them, too as was also mentioned.

all that said- no telling what you may have gleaned.  The only other option I see would have been to backtrack like you did, then lay up somewhere near by, wait an hour or two and then proceed once the weather cleared a little. If the forecast wasn't conducive for that, though, then aborting the trip entirely is prudent as well.

[M016576]

20 minutes ago, M20Doc said:

You did the right thing turning back.  We are now having a discussion about the weather, not the loss of another pilot and plane in a crash.

In more than 30 years in aviation I've only lost one client to a crash, ironically to icing in a Mooney.

Clarence

If you wouldn't mind sharing the details, I'm sure we would all learn something about that fateful trip....

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, M016576 said:

If you wouldn't mind sharing the details, I'm sure we would all learn something about that fateful trip....

Here's the link.

http://www.ntsb.gov/about/employment/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief2.aspx?ev_id=20080321X00348&ntsbno=NYC08FA139&akey=1

Clarence

[StevenL757]

8 hours ago, TWinter said:

Thanks for all the input..I knew it would a good topic to toss out as I was sitting here at home wondering if there was something different I could have done..like pressing on and having a big thick steak in Kerrville at McStealth's Steak House, instead I sit here in Tennessee re-evaluating the flight eating a lousy tuna sandwich  

Tom, I know that feeling, as others do, but you're alive to enjoy that sandwich.  Had you pressed on, we might be reading a different story...one which we're all working hard to prevent across GA.  Your decision-making helped avoid that story from having been told. We should ALL take notice and learn from this.  Glad you're back safely.

Steve

[epsalant]

we start to notice icing, it was starting to accumulate on the wing leading edge pretty quickly..The Aspen was showing 32 outside air temp. There was about ( I'm just guessing), but thinking about 1/4" of ice covering leading edge

 

I have a different take on this.  At this point I would have declared an emergency, pushed the "Nearest" button and landed.  Any time you are carrying ice in a non-FIKI plane, you have an emergency.  You are a test-pilot flying a non-tested airplane with unknown aerodynamic properties.  Mooneys have efficient wings and are known not to carry ice well (I would have still declared an emergency in a Bonanza, but they are known to carry ice better). 

I would have looked for a long enough runway to make a no-flap approach with higher-than-normal airspeed.  But I would have accepted a shorter runway rather than remain in icing conditions much longer.  If the ice started to melt in the pattern I'd make several large laps with gentle shallow turns to get rid of the rest of the ice and make a normal landing.  Otherwise, no flap, higher-than normal airspeed...You do NOT know at what speed airplane will stall. 

ATC would not really be able to help you much, so you might argue declaring an emergency would not help.  Maybe.  I think it would help.  It would solidify the fact in your mind that you, in fact, did have an emergency.  You, my friend, did have an emergency.  Glad it all turned out well.

 

Evan Salant, GLIDER, CFI, CFII, ASEL, ASES,

[rbridges]

11 hours ago, TWinter said:

I know...I called Austin at the FBO at Kerrville to cancel the rental car and told him the trip was a bust because of ice up here. I asked how's your weather was..he said "great weather" here!! All the weather apps, FF and GPilot still showed MVFR there.. I thought to myself well crap..Wondering should I have pushed on or done something different..hence the post.

 

-Tom

Better than pushing on and wishing you hadn't.  I have a low threshold for what I consider risky.  I would have done the same thing.

[Danb]

Good decision your here to share the experience, ice can sneak up on us or come on like gangbusters. Our system is void of enough pireps, hopefully you provided a good one which mayhave helped someone else. If you had quality pireps maybe your day would have been different. I assume by your post that your not instrument rated so climbing through the deck was not an option. Good choice  and outcome.

 

 

 

 

[DonMuncy]

Two good decisions. First to promptly get yourself out of a dangerous situation. Second to post here and question options. Not to beat yourself up for not completing the flight, but to get input as to all the alternatives known to this bunch of experienced pilots.

[bradp]

Good decision to exit the icing condition and then try to figure out the details of the factors that went into the decision later.

Skewt.aero is a good visual depiction of many RUC forecasts over a planned route. Learning to interpret skew t diagrams is not easy (something I'm learning to do better now). I'm trying to incorporate skew-t review and comparison to icing airmets, PIREPs and FA in particular.

I scrapped a flight from PIT to LYH this past weekend for a similar airmass.

It's the flights that "go wrong" or the flights we decide not to make are the ones we can learn the most from.


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[201er]

19 minutes ago, bradp said:

Skewt.aero is a good visual depiction of many RUC forecasts over a planned route. Learning to interpret skew t diagrams is not easy (something I'm learning to do better now). I'm trying to incorporate skew-t review and comparison to icing airmets, PIREPs and FA in particular.

I scrapped a flight from PIT to LYH this past weekend for a similar airmass.
 

Could you please explain based on the SkewT you posted why you cancelled? Perhaps I am not understanding it correctly but without other issues not presented here, this would look like a classic case of no-icing winter IFR.

Edited December 15, 2016 by 201er

[thinwing]

8 hours ago, M20Doc said:

Here's the link.

http://www.ntsb.gov/about/employment/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief2.aspx?ev_id=20080321X00348&ntsbno=NYC08FA139&akey=1

Clarence

Wow...practically a suiside...non ifr rated pilot launching after illegally filing ifr into a 2000 ft overcast with forecast icing in mountainous terrain....Clarence,did you know this guy?

[201er]

18 minutes ago, thinwing said:

Wow...practically a suiside...non ifr rated pilot launching after illegally filing ifr into a 2000 ft overcast with forecast icing in mountainous terrain....Clarence,did you know this guy?

Scary. Sounds like it ended in a stall?

[bradp]

Mike that was a depiction of Tom's routing and what seems like a lingering IFR and potential for icing 18 or however many hours after his scrubbed flight.

It shows pretty nicely the temp dew point convergence (above freezing for where ever I randomly scrolled to near Dallas). Further north the line migrates to near freezing and icing potential. I guess I could have chosen a better skew t to capture.

I scrubbed a round and back day trip from FWQ (home PIT area) to LYH because of OVC018 over JST and "MVFR" over most of the Allegheny mountains along the direct route. With ceilings in the winter you can sometimes fly due east past Altoona and towards Harrisburg/ Cumberland /Hagerstown and then fly along the east side of the blue ridge to avoid some of the higher terrain.

Conditions improved during the day (Sat) as drier air moved in ahead of a cold front, but the issue was that I couldn't guarantee that I could return that night without getting stuck on top of a layer in the dark. The clouds had light icing reported... so I legally and smartly didn't want to go through the later even if it was just 1000ft.
My personal minimum for VFR over the ridges near JST (routing is get east and then go south - can go at a lower altitude than over West Virginia) is 1000 above the highest ridge / obstruction in daylight, 1500 at night (IFR sep being 2000''). KJST and KAOO are the nearest reporting stations - KJST is at 2300 msl. Highest obstruction along the ridge is 3200 msl , which makes OVC025 at JST my cutoff for what I consider a safe crossing over that ridge line in day conditions. The other factor was some lake effect snow showers that were bringing conditions down to IFR LIFR randomly at some reporting stations. MVAs what they are if I needed to pick up IFR back in, my clearance would put me right in the clouds where I didn't want to go. So no good contingency plan if I encountered inadvertent IMC.


I do fly SE at night over the East coast mountains... enough to know that VFR west bound at 4500' from HAR to JST to LBE is just about where I'll draw the line with my level of comfort for terrain crossing when I can see the ridge and obstructions. Additional buffering at night despite all the terrain / obstruction advising I have available in flight.

I will occasionally go on a helo ride (riding shot gun) in the middle of the night where we go to Altoona or somewhere out there and cross the ridge at about 500 ft AGL and it honestly scares me.


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[201er]

9 minutes ago, bradp said:

I scrubbed a round and back day trip from FWQ (home PIT area) to LYH because of OVC018 over JST and "MVFR" over most of the Allegheny mountains along the direct route. With ceilings in the winter you can sometimes fly due east past Altoona and towards Harrisburg/ Cumberland /Hagerstown and then fly along the east side of the blue ridge to avoid some of the higher terrain.

Conditions improved during the day (Sat) as drier air moved in ahead of a cold front, but the issue was that I couldn't guarantee that I could return that night without getting stuck on top of a layer in the dark. The clouds had light icing reported... so I legally and smartly didn't want to go through the later even if it was just 1000ft.

You scrapped the flight this most recent Saturday? I flew to Pittsburgh and back Sat morning/evening! I can elaborate to you in pm if you're curious. The return flight is the one where the bonanza dude humiliated himself saying I wasn't fast enough.

As for this SkewT, if this is the SkewT for the area where Tom was getting icing, it is a clear example of the inversion layer on top being the warmer/safer place to be. With the information (or lack of information) that the Tom had, his experience level, capability, and the fact that by the time he had ice, it was too late to change much, I completely agree with the decision to divert or turn around. I just think, as we talk about what if and how to, that this does illustrate that warmer air could be above you. You know how in airliners they say, "keep in mind your nearest exit may be behind you." Well the best altitude to avoid icing "may be above you." This isn't always the case and I don't think there's any hard rule or prediction. But it is an illustration of why it is so important to take in all the weather information available, be instrument rated and proficient, have an out, and know when to throw in your hat.

[bradp]

This from the other thread:

 

 

[Piloto]

Back in 1988 I had an icing encounter that almost got me wet. Coming from Santa Maria LPAZ into St. John's CYYT (300nm away) I got icing at FL120 that got me slow down by 10kts according to the Loran. I knew it was clear above but the headwinds were stronger and close to sunset the ice would have never melted. Down below was in the clouds but less headwinds. With ice and headwinds I would not have made it to CYYT and Flores LPFL was 600nm behind me. I descended to 3000ft and started seeing white caps and icebergs. Headwind dropped and now I have chance to make it to CYYT. The ice never melted. Gander Oceanic was checking on my condition for a possible rescue. Good people.

José

[Guest]

3 hours ago, thinwing said:

Wow...practically a suiside...non ifr rated pilot launching after illegally filing ifr into a 2000 ft overcast with forecast icing in mountainous terrain....Clarence,did you know this guy?

Yes,. He was a client

Clarence

[Bob_Belville]

22 hours ago, 201er said:

I wasn't suggesting climbing out. Climbing out can be risky if you run out of power or the icing gets worse. However, if you know it is warmer higher, you file that higher altitude and fly in it in the first place and don't get any ice to begin with.

Mike, I think you've miss that Tom has started working on his IR but is a VFR pilot.

[201er]

5 minutes ago, Bob_Belville said:

Mike, I think you've miss that Tom has started working on his IR but is a VFR pilot.

Oh, I didn't realize. I assumed he was going IFR if he was combatting icing. If he wasn't IFR then how the heck did he pick up ice?

[Bob_Belville]

Just now, 201er said:

Oh, I didn't realize. I assumed he was going IFR if he was combatting icing. If he wasn't IFR then how the heck did he pick up ice?

His initial post describes being @ 3000 MSL, MVFR, below an overcast with OAT reading 32 when it started raining. The rain turned to ice on the plane. No place for a VFR pilot to stay! I'd say that indicates it was warmer in the clouds above him but that was not an option if he was to maintain VFR. 

[201er]

Well that is certainly a crappy situation to be in VFR