Top ten weather questions...what are they?

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

I will be doing a free webinar for EAA coming up in May where I will present the top 10 weather questions pilots ask. I've been an instructor for over 20 years and I've heard dozens of the same questions over and over again...but I am curious...if you had one weather question (related to aviation) that's been bugging you, what would that question be? 

These need to be relevant to aviation safety in some way.  For example, "I see these long dashed lines on the prog charts and wondering if I should be concerned about flying through that area?"

Interested to hear your questions.

[201er]

Why is the weather usually lousy when it's the one day the pilot set aside for flying?A

 

PS, maybe not for your webinar but perhaps you could explain here real quick what the heck is going on here?

[carusoam]

That many Hs in one spot meant VFR flying was going to be good...

for long distances... decide what side of the H you want to pass by on....

 

Hmmm....

I need to think up a good question....

Thanks Scott!

Best regards,

-a-

[Vance Harral]

1 hour ago, Scott Dennstaedt said:

For example, "I see these long dashed lines on the prog charts and wondering if I should be concerned about flying through that area?"

That's exactly my question, actually.  I know what the line "is".  I just don't have a firm grasp of what it's supposed to mean to me as a pilot; or why it gets a specific depiction vs. just looking at the pressure gradient contour lines that arguably already give you the information it's depicting.

[GeeBee]

I want to hear about the best practices for avoiding embedded convective activity while in the cockpit using FIS and XM weather.

 

[Hank]

1 hour ago, GeeBee said:

I want to hear about the best practices for avoiding embedded convective activity while in the cockpit using FIS and XM weather.

 

Is there anything better than a StormScope?

[N201MKTurbo]

Can I make a VFR flight from Chicago to Phoenix next Sunday?

[Bob - S50]

I'll be serious.

While I have WeatherSpork, if I didn't, other than the terminal forecast at my destination there are basically three questions I want answers to without the need to get a degree in meteorology.  Is there a quick and easy (for after all, I am a pilot) to determine:

1.  Cloud bases along my route of flight so I can decide whether or not VFR is feasible.  Keep in mind that I live out west where we actually have mountains not just hills.

2.  If I decide I can't go VFR, the likelihood I'll encounter icing; in which case I'll cancel.

3.  Turbulence along my route.

I know about and use the AWC Graphical Forecast for Aviation.  While I'm writing this, it does not show any ice at any altitude, any place in the USA.

[Yetti]

Solar minimum or El Nino

[GeeBee]

11 hours ago, Hank said:

Is there anything better than a StormScope?

Stormscope is a dead product. You can't buy one except used and the original manufacturer no longer supports it.

 

[Matt Ward]

I live on the Front Range of CO so consider that as this may be local, but I always have the same two:

1) Why is it so windy?

2) Why is it so bumpy?

I have your book (great book, btw!)  and understand the basics but more times that not, I can't figure out why these two phenomenon are not explained (to me, at least) in the combination of progs and winds aloft so I end up relying on the 'mets and the Foreflight models.

And a possibly related #3: How do I read a mid-level prog?  I can't even find where I am on those!

 

[jlunseth]

Well, here's one I will bet you have heard before and it probably still does not have a good answer. I am an Angel Flight pilot, the further in advance I can tell the patient whether we are flying or not, the easier it is for them to make other arrangements if it is a no go. So, where can I find good forecasts four or more days in advance of a flight?

[JimB]

34 minutes ago, jlunseth said:

Well, here's one I will bet you have heard before and it probably still does not have a good answer. I am an Angel Flight pilot, the further in advance I can tell the patient whether we are flying or not, the easier it is for them to make other arrangements if it is a no go. So, where can I find good forecasts four or more days in advance of a flight?

Four or more days out? This is about as accurate a forecast as you can get. 

[steingar]

One that may not get asked but should.  Where is icing most likely to happen.  The really sad thing is where it is the most likely is right where I live.

[jlunseth]

@JimB Yeah, I know about that one.

[HXG]

As far as top common questions, I would guess some  involve:

Predicting IMC- cloud bases and heights (helped by models and skewTlogP) and reduced visibility including fog

Predicting icing-(helped by models, freezing levels, temps, clouds/visible moisture, icing products, skewTlogP) and best way to get out of icing- climbing with shallow angle, descending, 180 degree turn (I know it depends).

Predicting turbulence and high gusty winds as well as low level windshear- I also live on the Colorado front range and I must admit there are windy turbulent days that can be tough for me to explain other than the obvious nearby mountains (i.e., local denver TAFs underestimate winds as less than 20knots, but TAFs at airports less than 80nm away predict 45 knot winds, I can’t find upper level 500mb and above or jet stream support, no nearby front, no nearby lows, skewTlogP may not show reasons other than some higher altitude winds, isobars don’t look close etc.). Graphical turbulence airmets do a pretty good job, but areas are so wide and common that they have limited utility for me at times.   

Thunderstorm avoidance- although with the exception of embedded thunderstorms, I think thunderstorms can generally be avoided.

 

 

[kortopates]

10 hours ago, GeeBee said:

Stormscope is a dead product. You can't buy one except used and the original manufacturer no longer supports it.

 

I don't doubt that about the old stormscopes with integrated head display, but aren't the WX-500's still in production - now sold by L3? I am sure thankful to have one in my panel (actually in the avioincs bay but displayed on my GTN-750 and G500.

[Hank]

11 hours ago, GeeBee said:

Stormscope is a dead product. You can't buy one except used and the original manufacturer no longer supports it.

 

So real-time display of convective weather is now impossible (once my 'Scope conks out)? Guess I'll have to "update" to unapproved ADS-B In on my unapproved phone / tablet, and a oid anything on the display that looks like it may become convective, or has already done so since the radar data was collected.

Kind of like driving with a blindfold on, using instructions from someone on the radio given five minutes in advance.

[GeeBee]

No, L-3 has stopped production

https://sarasotaavionics.com/avionics/wx-500

All you can do is find used ones. Service is by some company that services obsolete avionics.

https://extantaerospace.com/news/Extant_PR_09132019.pdf

 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Okay, thanks to everyone who responded.  

[PT20J]

Scott,

It seems that we have tons of weather product available to us. It is easy to be overwhelmed and sometimes difficult to separate the important from the merely interesting. 

What three (or five max.) pieces of information would provide the best “big picture” to allow making the best flight plan given the variables of altitude, route and departure time?

[bradp]

Hey Scott - I’ll bite 

-How do we use forecast models most effectively as GA pilots

-How are upper / mid atmospheric charts useful for us flying down at 6-8,000

- what are the 3 or 4 most practical  aspects for skew t chart interpretation as it relates to cross county GA flying. 
 

thanks Scott 

[cliffy]

Carry a "Sky Card"   Its blue and if it matches the sky go fly

Wunderground 10 day forecast for the area you fly is surprisingly accurate

NOTHING beats full up color RADAR for TS weather avoidance period!

If the clouds turn a dirty green GET THE HELL OUT OF THERE

Sky Vector flight planning with Wing Barbs at settable altitudes (done in mbs) If the wind is above 25 kts at 10,000' out west you'll have a bad ride.

If its summer out west in the SW desert area- you'll have a bad ride below FL180

All the information in the world can't and won't replace experience and looking out the window. 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

12 hours ago, cliffy said:

 

All the information in the world can't and won't replace experience and looking out the window. 

Wish that was true, but sadly it isn't.  In fact, it's one of those many myths.  Experience means nothing unless you know what you are looking at.  In fact the NTSB released a safety notice in October 2005 that states, 

"It appears that pilots generally require formal training to obtain weather knowledge and cannot be expected to acquire it on their own as they simply gain more flight experience."

Can't underscore this enough.  Mother Nature doesn't care how many hours are in your logbook.

[slowflyin]

On 2/22/2021 at 8:31 PM, kortopates said:

I don't doubt that about the old stormscopes with integrated head display, but aren't the WX-500's still in production - now sold by L3? I am sure thankful to have one in my panel (actually in the avioincs bay but displayed on my GTN-750 and G500.

WX-500 still alive and well.  L3 has sold the company to a firm in FL.  They are selling new units and servicing old.  That being said I use Valentine for all my service.  He's fantastic!