100LL

[whiskytango]

19 hours ago, PT20J said:

Over 30 years ago when I purchased my first airplane, a friend and airplane owner told me that the best part of owning an airplane is that the flying is free. When I questioned that, he pointed out that given all the costs involved with owning, maintaining and upgrading an airplane, the gas and oil for an hour of flying was minuscule -- essentially free.

Richard Bach wrote years ago that he wanted to buy a single engine airplane but couldn't justify the cost until he remembered that he really wanted a twin that would burn much more fuel. So he reasoned that by not buying the twin, the fuel savings would pay for the single. Extending that logic, he reasoned that if he ran out of that money, he would not buy a Learjet and that would finance his flying forever.

The point is that these things are not cost effective unless you really torture the analysis or can write off expenses to a business. They provide utility and we own them because we want them and can somehow manage to afford them. If the fuel cost makes or breaks the deal, we should perhaps rethink the entire proposition.

Skip

 

It may have been Mike Busch or someone from GAMI that said essentially the same thing about the cost of fuel, and if you are going to fly ROP, by all means fly at 150 degrees ROP and keep your cylinders cool.

[Bravoman]

2.99 at KSGJ (St Augustine).

[Igor_U]

I am amazed at some of the prices!

At KPAE (Pain field) self serve pumps are finally working after 2.5y of being out of service (saga that deserves another thread) and price is $5.35.

I think that's on a lower side for Seattle area...

[aaronk25]

Over 30 years ago when I purchased my first airplane, a friend and airplane owner told me that the best part of owning an airplane is that the flying is free. When I questioned that, he pointed out that given all the costs involved with owning, maintaining and upgrading an airplane, the gas and oil for an hour of flying was minuscule -- essentially free.
Richard Bach wrote years ago that he wanted to buy a single engine airplane but couldn't justify the cost until he remembered that he really wanted a twin that would burn much more fuel. So he reasoned that by not buying the twin, the fuel savings would pay for the single. Extending that logic, he reasoned that if he ran out of that money, he would not buy a Learjet and that would finance his flying forever.
The point is that these things are not cost effective unless you really torture the analysis or can write off expenses to a business. They provide utility and we own them because we want them and can somehow manage to afford them. If the fuel cost makes or breaks the deal, we should perhaps rethink the entire proposition.
Skip
 

Agree. For mechanical things my 2 loves have been boats and airplanes. Many in the marina leave 200-400k boats sit because they are saving money by not operating them. I never understood it. Fuel in boats and most planes is not anywhere near the largest cost.


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[Austintatious]

On 3/29/2020 at 9:46 PM, PT20J said:

Over 30 years ago when I purchased my first airplane, a friend and airplane owner told me that the best part of owning an airplane is that the flying is free. When I questioned that, he pointed out that given all the costs involved with owning, maintaining and upgrading an airplane, the gas and oil for an hour of flying was minuscule -- essentially free.

Richard Bach wrote years ago that he wanted to buy a single engine airplane but couldn't justify the cost until he remembered that he really wanted a twin that would burn much more fuel. So he reasoned that by not buying the twin, the fuel savings would pay for the single. Extending that logic, he reasoned that if he ran out of that money, he would not buy a Learjet and that would finance his flying forever.

The point is that these things are not cost effective unless you really torture the analysis or can write off expenses to a business. They provide utility and we own them because we want them and can somehow manage to afford them. If the fuel cost makes or breaks the deal, we should perhaps rethink the entire proposition.

Skip

 

I agree, but I feel like you have left out a very important aspect of aircraft ownership.  That being the flexibility they offer.

Clearly, if I factor in fixed cost then no, I cannot beat using the airlines, especially if trips are planned well in advance.

That being said, The way I look at it is that the fixed cost buy me flexibility, which I need.  I have lost thousands in airline tickets because I had to cancel a trip for one reason or another... money out the window.   Also, with my unpredictable schedule, I do get lots of small windows where I can pop off for a few days, especially during the summer when the wife is not working (teacher).  During Christmas break we decided to go skiing for 1 day literally the day prior.  Airline tickets would have cost a fortune and been prohibitive for such a late decision like that.  Not to mention they may not have been able to get us in early enough.

So for someone like me who cannot commit to playtime months in advance, the Mooney can and does in fact beat 2 airline tickets, at least in the DOC...  THe fixed cost, well those are just the price one has to pay for such a convenience.  I feel lucky to be in a position to be able to afford such.

[N201MKTurbo]

You will never beat the cost of Airline travel between big cities, but you can almost always beat the cost between small towns. In a lot of cases you can beat them on time too.

[carusoam]

Crude continues downward...

The opec+ cartel is having difficulty slowing the flow...

$15 /barrel Sunday evening...

Best regards,

-a-

[N201MKTurbo]

Unprecedented over supply. 

The price must crash. Great for us, terrible for all the folks who work in the oil business.

It was a great thing the president did to get the Saudis and Russia to end their supply war. It will reduce the whipsaw in prices that is inevitable. 

Either way, he will inevitably be condemned by the press and the learned folks on the left.

[flyboy0681]

9 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Unprecedented over supply. 

The price must crash. Great for us, terrible for all the folks who work in the oil business.

It was a great thing the president did to get the Saudis and Russia to end their supply war. It will reduce the whipsaw in prices that is inevitable. 

Either way, he will inevitably be condemned by the press and the learned folks on the left.

Well, at least we know where you stand.

[aviatoreb]

On 4/1/2020 at 1:33 AM, aaronk25 said:

 

Agree. For mechanical things my 2 loves have been boats and airplanes. Many in the marina leave 200-400k boats sit because they are saving money by not operating them. I never understood it. Fuel in boats and most planes is not anywhere near the largest cost.


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Ah - boats and planes - the dual sins of the wallet.

Fortunately my second mechanical sin is not quite as expensive and doesn't eat fuel.  I ride bicycles and I have a garage full of fancy bikes.  There is a phrase called bike bling which is when some small part of a bike becomes simply over engineered with exotic materials, low weight, highly functional brilliant design and the workmanship goes up and I call those parts as jewelry grade bike components.  Expensive - but under the radar cost wise vs boats and planes.  Still jewelry grade bike stuff floats my boat - good thing since I don't have a boat.

[carusoam]

Yikes!!!

Monday mid day...

Down from $62 in January...

 

[carusoam]

Minute by minute...

The May contracts end tomorrow...

June pricing comes back up to $22...

 

As far as quirks go...

The price of a barrel oil actually went down to One cent....

With no place to store it...

Same quirks will go on... one month at a time...

Getting screenshots is like taking pics of wild life... 

Read the red headline...

The other data is just minutes old... (time stamps on them)

Best regards,

-a-

 

[Parker_Woodruff]

glad I'm out of the oil business...

[carusoam]

Wait there is more...

like negative interest rates...

Oil prices have gone negative as well...

Again... check the red headline... actual price is lagging by minutes on this display...

See the graph... also on delay, but -$13.98(negative dollars)

the price listed shows -$7.3

Strange times... documented.

-a-

 

 

[Parker_Woodruff]

I saw negative $7.30!!

[carusoam]

Similar to Giant stock market drops... outside the normal range... causes some strange mathematical weirdness...

Fortunately, with stocks... they stop at zero...

 

Watch the details on this graph... it is happening so rapidly... the data collectors can’t keep up...

The graph says -39.55 at the low...

The chart says -40.32 At the low...

And I think it has until this time tomorrow... to close out.

With oil and other commodities... they can go negative... and have a time limit... owners of these contracts MAY have until tomorrow to figure out how to dump them... or take delivery.... (NOT MY AREA OF EXPERTISE)

 

We are seeing the equivalent of the ‘perfect’ storms...

Where two forces clash into each other...  Corona and Global economy...

Stay Strong...  Stay healthy...   Stay online... 

PP thoughts only, not a commodities trader...

Best regards,

-a-

[N201MKTurbo]

4 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

Well, at least we know where you stand.

I hope there wasn’t any confusion about that...

[Hank]

5 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

Well, at least we know where you stand.

I think we all knew already . . . .  

(where's that "thumbs up" thing when I need it???)

[Parker_Woodruff]

Delta owns a refinery.  They need to figure out how to get this out of Cushing for -$37/bbl and make money by flying empty.

[aviatoreb]

What does that even mean when oil costs negative dollars for a barrel??!  It can't mean they will pay me to take away a barrel of oil?  It can't mean they will pay me to burn a gallon of avgas. As much as I would enjoy filling up a tank of avgas and then having the fbo hand me a nice crisp $50 bill for the service of taking that stuff off their hands, and maybe a hat ... this can't be good.  Something is very upside down, but we already knew this.  

[exM20K]

8 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

What does that even mean when oil costs negative dollars for a barrel??!  It can't mean they will pay me to take away a barrel of oil?  It can't mean they will pay me to burn a gallon of avgas. As much as I would enjoy filling up a tank of avgas and then having the fbo hand me a nice crisp $50 bill for the service of taking that stuff off their hands, and maybe a hat ... this can't be good.  Something is very upside down, but we already knew this.  

On the margin, storage is leased.  If you have stored crude which storage is committed to someone else after the May expiration and delivery period,, then you've got to get rid of the crude or find someplace else for it.  There are some amazing pictures out there of floating storage (eg: every available tanker full and floating around).  That's pretty expensive.

More interesting to me as a former futures trader and software engineer: can the back office systems of the exchanges and clearing firms even handle a negative price?  Kind of Y2K all over again.

-de

[Davidv]

I'm no futures trader, but if you hold a contract and and default on it (refuse to take delivery) it could lead to bankrupcty in an extreme case (or the seizure of your assets).  Essentially the paper futures traders are so worried about having to take physical delivery they are unloading it at any cost.  When all storage is spoken for, you're between a rock...and a rock.

[EricJ]

Remember also the WTI numbers are only for the Cushing, Oklahoma, terminal market which appears to be in a bit of a jam for storage space.   Broader relevant markets, like Brent, while still pretty cheap, don't reflect being in that much of a storage bind right now.

It's definitely interesting to watch, though!    Lets hope that this sort of pandemic proves to be rare in the future and we're witnessing economic factors that are once-in-a-lifetime and may be studied later for their effects.

We live in interesting times. 

[DonMuncy]

Just now, EricJ said:

We live in interesting times. 

If it is all the same, I would just as soon pass on the experience.

[EricJ]

29 minutes ago, DonMuncy said:

If it is all the same, I would just as soon pass on the experience.

Adventure!