Factory Closed Down?

[alextstone]

4 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I hope the factory is just down for the week.  If not that then the Phoenix rises again.

But - if we do become orphaned - doesn't the FAA have sone kind of orphaned rule that lets us "owner" produce or source in kind parts if the make is orphaned?  Seems like there is very little on our airplanes that couldn't be built if a salvage part isn't available - and on that regard - sadly there will just be more salvage available as time goes on.

But facing reality - 10 and 20 years is surely the longest horizon that avgas will be available. Or some replacement.  Eventually we will all be flying octocopters.  I cannot image internal combustion engines will even have any kind of fuel available in 30 years.  These airplanes will just be for collectors in Jay Leno's garage.

This document might be a place to start...

https://www.faa.gov/documentlibrary/media/advisory_circular/ac_23-27.pdf

[TGreen]

2 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

I don't think the problem is selling airplanes. And that is a surprise to me. But evidently, according to a few guys out there selling new Mooneys, they are selling everything available. The problem seems to be that they can't make them fast enough. When everything is done by hand and they can only produce 6 airplanes in a year, the numbers don't add up. 

As late as this past summer, one of the dealers was carrying new inventory for months on end. The Mooney website in 2018 said it was going to limit production to 70 units per year. I think they have been demand-constrained. Hard to believe that the same factory that used to make 200+ units per year changed production so drastically that they could only produce one unit per month. And I haven't seen anything anywhere about a waiting list.

[rbridges]

2 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

I don't think the problem is selling airplanes. And that is a surprise to me. But evidently, according to a few guys out there selling new Mooneys, they are selling everything available. The problem seems to be that they can't make them fast enough. When everything is done by hand and they can only produce 6 airplanes in a year, the numbers don't add up. 

Do you know what the sales figures are since mooney reopened?  I couldn't find anything with my google powers.

[Parker_Woodruff]

6 minutes ago, rbridges said:

Do you know what the sales figures are since mooney reopened?  I couldn't find anything with my google powers.

https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/quarterly-shipments-and-billings/

[N201MKTurbo]

22 minutes ago, Parker_Woodruff said:

https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/quarterly-shipments-and-billings/

Cirrus shipped 380 aircraft in 2018. Mooney shipped 14.

[KB4]

18 minutes ago, Parker_Woodruff said:

https://gama.aero/facts-and-statistics/quarterly-shipments-and-billings/

Wow, 14 sold in 2018.  Very surprising, thought they were doing much netter.  Not sure how much longer they can stay in production with those sales, since already have a trimmed down skeleton crew. 

[KB4]

3 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Cirrus shipped 380 aircraft in 2018. Mooney shipped 14.

Cirrus had 443 year to date not that it makes a difference. They crushed Mooney. 

[toto]

I wonder how much of Mooney's revenue depends on new aircraft sales vs parts manufacture vs licensing vs whatever. 

They clearly aren't selling a lot of new aircraft today, but there's a pretty significant fleet size, every one of which will need parts from time to time. 

[ragedracer1977]

10 minutes ago, toto said:

I wonder how much of Mooney's revenue depends on new aircraft sales vs parts manufacture vs licensing vs whatever. 

They clearly aren't selling a lot of new aircraft today, but there's a pretty significant fleet size, every one of which will need parts from time to time. 

I love my Mooney, but it's really hard to justify spending money with them.  I know it's economy of scale, but I just got a quote for $1991 for the parts pictures below for a carb air box.  

 

[aviatoreb]

17 minutes ago, KB4 said:

Cirrus had 443 year to date not that it makes a difference. They crushed Mooney. 

Cirrus crushed everyone.

Cessna 172's are still moving.

PA28...sort of.

DA40's...better than I guessed.

Extra is comparable to Mooney.  And a few others.

[Shadrach]

1 hour ago, Bravoman said:

I have a feeling that if aircraft production stops at Mooney that might be it for good this time.

You may be right, but this prediction has been made with just every shutdown that they’ve ever gone through. Someone is bound to be right eventually...

Edited November 11, 2019 by Shadrach

[carusoam]

Some things are hard to explain...  

as of today...

1) The S&P 500 has always closed at a higher value...

2) Mooney has always re-opened...

In the darkest of times at Mooney... Stacey was there keeping the lights on... he would stop by MS giving updates when able...

In the darkest of times on Wall St... it can got really dark...

PP thoughts only, not a prognosticator...

Best regards,

-a-

[jghyde]

Keep an eye on the WARN notices from the Texas Workforce Commission for layoff announcements if there are any coming. 

"Under certain circumstances, the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act requires you to provide notice 60 days in advance of plant closures or mass layoffs.  The WARN Act is intended to offer protection to workers, their families and communities.

"The U.S. Department of Labor provides compliance assistance materials to help employers and workers understand their rights and responsibilities under the provisions of WARN, including everything you need to know about requirements for a WARN notice," according to the TWC website.

So far, no WARN has been issued for Kerr County, Texas.

Here's the link: https://twc.texas.gov/businesses/worker-adjustment-and-retraining-notification-warn-notices#warnNotices

[jghyde]

Sept. 11, there was some bragging about Mooney sales:

And...

 

[chriscalandro]

It’s been proven since the company started that it just isn’t sustainable. Never has been. 
 

Only someone who wants to save the brand will invest. It’s clearly not a money making investment. 

[Hans Neubert]

According to Paul Bowen through a third party, Mooney has closed its doors and filed for bankruptcy.  This was also confirmed by another former employee.

[MikeOH]

Gawd, this is a depressing thread

[MooneyMitch]

That’s a beautiful airplane!

Along with Stacey Ellis, others that should be mentioned in keeping the doors open in Kerrville during airplane manufacturing hibernation were Chad Nelson, Barry Hodkin, Bill Eldred, Frank Crawford, and the late Mike Miles. So grateful for them all.

I truly hope all will continue for our friends in Kerrville, and for the great Mooney airplane legacy.  

[corn_flake]

2 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

Paul as Ive always said, they need car production guys in there, automating the hell out of the place.  Wiring looms by hand, REALLY, in this day and age, buy the damn things in ready made from a car supllier.  Fueslage as well, im sure there is an automated factory that can produce them.  Wings are different and I get the difficulty with those, but the rest?  Why are inspection panels put on by hand and wind shields etc, can quite easily be done by robot.  If the owners are willing to wipe out a fair proportion of the original investment, this place would work at a lot less cost, and sometimes thats what you have to do for the oinger term gain.

Go read about Tesla's Model 3 production ramp up.  Unless we are talking about producing 500 Mooney per week, automation is out of the question.   If GA industry wants that kind of demand, a new aircraft need to start around $100k, not $500k.   There is one of the reasons why experimental is one of that fastest growing sector in GA.  $35k will get you a airplane that will do 165 knots.  $100k will get you a nice RV-10 that is large enough to take the family.  

[Hank]

16 minutes ago, corn_flake said:

Go read about Tesla's Model 3 production ramp up.  Unless we are talking about producing 500 Mooney per week, automation is out of the question.   If GA industry wants that kind of demand, a new aircraft need to start around $100k, not $500k.   There is one of the reasons why experimental is one of that fastest growing sector in GA.  $35k will get you a airplane that will do 165 knots.  $100k will get you a nice RV-10 that is large enough to take the family.  

Nah, there are enough used assembly and welding robots available to gear uo the Mooney factory at a substantial discount. I've said this for years . . . .

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, corn_flake said:

Go read about Tesla's Model 3 production ramp up.  Unless we are talking about producing 500 Mooney per week, automation is out of the question.   If GA industry wants that kind of demand, a new aircraft need to start around $100k, not $500k.   There is one of the reasons why experimental is one of that fastest growing sector in GA.  $35k will get you a airplane that will do 165 knots.  $100k will get you a nice RV-10 that is large enough to take the family.  

I didn’t look at the market pricing of completed and flying RV10’s, but a kit is north of $60K this does not include engine, propeller, avionics, paint or interior.  Two guys on my field have around $200K in theirs.

Clarence 

[Jerry 5TJ]

48 minutes ago, corn_flake said:

Go read about Tesla's Model 3 production ramp up.

OK —Tesla 3 production in Q3 of 2019 was just under 80,000 cars.  Over 25,000 per month.  Working 24/7 about one complete car every 100 seconds.   

[Aviator]

When the Mooney Factory was purchased by the Chinese it was my belief that their long term plans depended on selling Mooney's in the developing general aviation market in China.

If that had happened the USA market could benefit from all the technological advances put in place at Mooney.

It appears that might not be happening.

Two questions:. Can Mooney find a market for these airplanes(without a parachute) at current pricing?  If they find/develop the market can they produce airplanes to meet the demand?

I hope so but have my doubts.

[shorrick mk2]

1 hour ago, Hyett6420 said:

You didn't read my last line, which was the important one.  You would not get your money back perse, BUT you would then be able to produce and sell planes faster than Cirrus at a LOT less than Cirrus and steal their market.  Its called the "stagecoach" principle over here in the UK and is how Stagecoach became one of the largest transport companies in Europe. (don't forget Europe is bigger than the USA)

Also the RV10 is not a Part 23 certified aircraft, while  I appreciate it is a capable machine, you cant compare apples with pears.  The biggest cost in Mooney is production, then insurance and latent certification.  It is said it costs £100m to certify an aircraft, while I can produce plans for a LAA on the back of a fag packet and people will build them at their own risk.

Stagecoach does not operate outside the UK anymore. Their European foray didn't last more than two years.

[aviatoreb]

4 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

It should make no difference to your search, for example, you want a Cessna 182?, they dont make them, a Cessna 210, they dont make them, a Piper twin except Seneca, they dont make them.   So many of our fleet are not made any more but parts are still readily available that it does not really matter if the factory mking PLANES is furloughed.  Buy the plane that suits your mission, enjoy it, have fun with it, look after it and like a classic car, it will still keep going.  

Forget the C182, C210 and Piper Navajo,

I want a P51.  Can I still get factory support for a P51 Mustang when my machine guns need an overhaul?

https://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft/for-sale/24700307/1944-north-american-p-51-mustang

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by aviatoreb