Hurricane logistics

[Yetti]

Just looked at the long range forecast for the Hurricane....   Using Windy.com  which uses the European Model.  Windy has let me down on long range tropical storm forecasting before.  But it is pretty accurate on the 3-4 day and really accurate on the 1 day. 

  Looks like Miami Area Tuesday then all of Florida, then the lower Eastern Coast.    Storm offshore of Washington DC next Saturday.  Texas is not too Mooney far if anyone needs a spot to keep planes, I can start looking.  

If the energy stays offshore of Florida and it moves up the coast that is going to be yucky.

What does @scottd say?

Edited August 29, 2019 by Yetti

[Davidv]

The European model is pretty depressing, it looks like it will literally be right over my hangar.  If I trust that one I definitely need to bring the plane northwest.

[Yetti]

ya it is pretty tricky.    Because you may want to use the plane to evacuate......   But it could cross over to the gulf and then go inland.   There really is not enough highway to evacuate millions to adapt to the Windy model

Edited August 29, 2019 by Yetti

[Davidv]

Yup, you need to head pretty far inland (Atlanta ect) or west north west or else it could be chasing you

[RLCarter]

South West is a better place to be, they almost always go North after making landfall 

[Davidv]

If key west is out of the wind zone that’s def where I’ll be! Unfortunately not many options southwest...

[chriscalandro]

15 minutes ago, Davidv said:

If key west is out of the wind zone that’s def where I’ll be! Unfortunately not many options southwest...

It’s the closest option for me!  I’m based in homestead. 

[ArtVandelay]

Now they’re predicting it will be a Cat 4.


Tom

[ArtVandelay]

The European model is pretty depressing, it looks like it will literally be right over my hangar.  If I trust that one I definitely need to bring the plane northwest.

Good news is the European model is least accurate of all models forecasting intensity of storms.



Tom

[Yetti]

Happy to look for places in central Texas and help with logistics.   I could probably come up with some hangers if I called around.

[ArtVandelay]

If key west is out of the wind zone that’s def where I’ll be!

You better hope you’re right, I would not want be in the keys during a major hurricane.

 

 

Tom

[BKlott]

7 hours ago, Yetti said:

ya it is pretty tricky.    Because you may want to use the plane to evacuate......   But it could cross over to the gulf and then go inland.   There really is not enough highway to evacuate millions to adapt to the Windy model

The other factor that we learned with the last storm is that there is not enough fuel to evacuate a significant portion of Florida. We are already seeing lines at gas stations and stations out of fuel.

[Eight8Victor]

Has anyone tried running a generator on 100ll? I called Honda today and they do not recommend it. As was mentioned, gas is running out and the lines are getting longer at the pumps.

There is plenty of avgas around but don't want to damage my generator.

[nfonville]

16 minutes ago, Eight8Victor said:

Has anyone tried running a generator on 100ll? I called Honda today and they do not recommend it. As was mentioned, gas is running out and the lines are getting longer at the pumps.

There is plenty of avgas around but don't want to damage my generator.

I have not ran a honda generator but run all my lawn mowers, other generators, etc for many years.  I find they never require maintenance because the fuel is so clean compared to the crappy ethanol gas.  I would not not think twice about it.  I have a 1000 gal tank and use avgas in most everything that is not my automobile.  I have a 30+ year powertow tug that has never had auto gas and it's never been tuned up.  Starts on first pull most every time.

[Yetti]

49 minutes ago, Eight8Victor said:

Has anyone tried running a generator on 100ll? I called Honda today and they do not recommend it. As was mentioned, gas is running out and the lines are getting longer at the pumps.

There is plenty of avgas around but don't want to damage my generator.

Have a Harbor Freight Engine on the power tug that works fine on 100LL

[Yetti]

Saw this on FaceBook

Any Florida airplanes needing safe storage.   KXBP   Call 940-389-6138

[carusoam]

100LL is known for gumming up catalytic converters...

Don’t run it in your Honda Automobile....

If you need too, take the cat off, to prevent it from blocking up...

The LL chemistry is converted by the high temps of engine operation.... there is a CHT to go with that...

So... unless it is extremely cold and windy, the generator won’t be able to tell it is eating 100LL...

 

Keep the plans coming...

I have run from a Hurricane, and visited Chicago...  

 

Think of all the things that can go wrong while waiting to leave...  be fueled up.

We departed NJ in IMC... ATC headed us towards the hurricane to work us into the system... we were flying slowly to not go very far...

Rain near a hurricane is incredibly heavy... make sure all your seals are working...

ATC was extra busy with the workload...

 

Heading to a more remote place..? Might get busy, might run out of supplies, might have the disaster follow you... bring enough beer for everybody...   

PP thoughts only...

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

There is still time to call your insurance company to find out how much they will pay to have you move the plane...

Expect a tank full of 100LL can get you pretty far, and back...

we have an insurance guy and a weather guy around here...

 

PP thoughts only...

 

Best regards,

-a-

[CharlesHuddleston]

I would offer up a guest room and the bunk beds in our bonus room if anyone needs lodging. Both spaces come with a full bathroom. We are in middle Tennessee, a quick car ride from a KSRB. I will ask our airport manager tomorrow morning about the available hangar space. I could probable also get a couple Mooney's parked in a big hangar at KCSV next to a Legacy 650 that my best friend flies. Their company has a couple big hangars that swallow their Legacy, Pilatus, and 182. I remember when Maria hit Puerto Rico last year, Kenny Chesney (the country singer) flew some folks to KSRB on his jet to escape the storm. 

More than happy to help. If interested, send me a PM.

[Seth]

My hangar at KGAI is available in MD just outside DC if anyone wants to fly up here to to get out of the path and enjoy DC for a few days.

-Seth

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

On 8/29/2019 at 9:47 AM, Yetti said:

What does @scottd say?

Been watching Dorian has it has shown some odd characteristics and has been somewhat difficult to forecast.   I mentioned on another board that I expected to see Dorian slow down considerably before turning to the northwest-north as it approaches and makes landfall in Florida.  What I've noticed from a few days ago, all of the model guidance has been wanting to take this storm to the coast of Florida a lot faster than it has been actually moving.  That's good for evacuations. 

It was originally expected to make landfall in Florida as a tropical storm early Sunday morning, but now is looking like Tuesday morning as a category 4 hurricane as you can see by this loop...I expect this trend to continue such that by later today or tomorrow the forecast will be pushed back even more as the system continues to slow.  That means Dorian could take an earlier turn to the north as that ridge over Bermuda is expected to retreat creating an even worse situation if it stays just along the coastal regions as it moves north.  Depending on how far the storm remains off shore would determine how quickly it would weaken, but it would batter a much greater length of the coastline and keep the fuel for the storm pumping in from the warm Atlantic waters dumping more precipitation as it drifts north.

PLEASE NOTE:  This is just one scenario I am considering myself and not the official forecast from the NHC.  But it's likely the worst case scenario.      

[Yetti]

The European model has been consistent with a Monday Tuesday in Florida time frame.    I think what people are missing is "Oh Crap the Whole SE Atlantic Seaboard"    and they are just doing "Oh Crap Florida"   I have found the Aviation Weather Progressive charts to be a good guide.   The European model let me down a couple times on Long term Tropical forecasting earlier this season.

[Yetti]

And that stalled ridge just holding it there is going to be bad.    It will be a battle of the wills to see if it can break through.

[jwilcoxon78]

We may have prematurely cancelled our vacation in the Destin area but better safe than sorry I suppose.  My luck is that it'd enter the Gulf and spool back up into a 1-2.  But, it does seem to be trending more for a northerly direction. 

[Yetti]

54 minutes ago, jwilcoxon78 said:

We may have prematurely cancelled our vacation in the Destin area but better safe than sorry I suppose.  My luck is that it'd enter the Gulf and spool back up into a 1-2.  But, it does seem to be trending more for a northerly direction. 

There are going to be lots of evacuees being displaced.