scottd

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About scottd

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    http://avwxworkshops.com

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    : Charlotte, NC
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    Weather, writing, flying

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  1. You are correct Tom! These are not generally caused by ominous-looking supercell thunderstorms. In fact, they tend to occur with deep, moist convection that may not have any lightning strikes. The area of weather can look rather benign so it's rather tempting to believe it's safe to fly underneath. Simple rule: Never fly under deep, moist convection.
  2. Check out this microburst caught on camera in the Raleigh, NC area. The important thing to notice is just how benign this looks underneath the cloud deck...lots of locations with blue skies in the distance. https://twitter.com/i/status/1151556735406096385 Here's the dual-node signature you'll see on the NEXRAD radial velocity (Doppler) when it is occurring. Green represents hydrometeors moving toward the radar and red are hydrometeors moving away from the radar. The image below is time stamped at 1850Z, when in fact, the microburst began around 1845Z based on the camera's time stamp. Here's the NEXRAD loop you can see how quickly the microburst occurs (each frame is about five minutes apart).
  3. That’s pretty common to change to an ICAO id when a TAF service is started.
  4. It's not related to the FBO operations. Might be due to an air ambulance operation out of there.
  5. Effective Tuesday, September 24, 2019, at 1800Z, the NWS office in Missoula, MT, will begin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) service for Ravalli County Airport (KHAM) in Hamilton, MT.
  6. Here's the first video in the series...
  7. Yes, lightning was one of 6 new products broadcast over FIS-B starting last fall. Keep in mind that FIS-B lightning is only cloud-to-ground lightning and that may have some significant consequences as I discuss in detail in my blog.
  8. I'll be repeating my video series, Getting To Oshkosh, again this year. I know many pilots making the trip to AirVenture last year thought it was very helpful to see my weather analysis. It'll primarily be focused on pilots planning to arrive at the beginning of the event on Sunday and Monday. It'll be posted on my AvWxWorkshops YouTube channel. If you are interested in viewing this video series and have not done so already, please take a minute to subscribe to my channel so you don't miss any updates as they are uploaded. The first video will likely be uploaded on the afternoon of July 15th. Please keep in mind that this is not an official weather briefing and is offered for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'll also be doing three presentations while I am attending... - Monday (at 2 pm in the AOPA tent) - Tuesday (11:30 am at the EAA Pilot Proficiency Center) - Thursday 8:30 am at Forum Stage 7. Search on my name here, for specific topics and to add to your itinerary. Stop by and say hello. I'll also be hanging out at the SiriusXM tent from Monday through Thursday.
  9. Scott, The GFS is primarily a model that does extremely well at depicting the large scale synoptic patterns. It has a much higher vertical resolution especially at the jet stream level. So from a wind speed/direction and upper level depiction, the GFS will be the best source. If you are looking for good precip forecasts, better to use the WRF/NAM or the RAP/HRRR products.
  10. The GFS forecast model is going operational with it's update today with the 12Z run to the new FV3 dynamical core and improved physics parameterizations. This upgrade should leapfrog the ECMWF and other global models and brings unprecedented accuracy to forecasts at the global level.
  11. At least for the Southeast there will be some change in terms of precip over the next 14 days with above average precip potential. 6-10 day precip 8-14 day precip But, of course, the Southeast will still remain above average...can you say, hazy, hot and humid? Yuk! 6-10 day temperatures 8-14 day temperatures