Leaving Yourself An Out

[GeeBee]

I had a mission to fly on Dec 26 from KGVL Gainesville, GA to KMKL (Jackson, TN). 267 miles. I have a known ice airplane. Looking at the forecast, MKL was above minimum, above personal minimums but would require an approach. The airport was in light snow that would end later in the day by the time of my arrival. Cloud cover forecast on Aviationweather.gov showed bases at 900' tops FL320. Freezing level near the surface. There was SLD icing above 13,000. Light to moderate icing below. After considering all things I canceled. Here was my thinking.

I don't mind flying in forecast icing if I can bail out to warmer temps below and maintain MEA. I flew from BWI (actually KMTN) to GVL a week earlier and took a route down over RDU and CAE to do just that. Highest MEA was 3000', forecast to be above freezing.  ATC wanted to route me out over western VA and NC but I told them unless I got what I wanted and filed I would divert to RIC. They granted me my wish. I was 2.5 hours solid IMC but had no worse than light icing. In this case on the 26th, I had no out. I could not descend into a non icing environment nor could I quickly exit it to the south as HSV (Huntsville, AL) had similar issues. The real range of a known ice Mooney is 1.5 hours. That is the amount of time you have running the TKS at max. Thus you must have no-ice conditions max within 45 minutes of entering, because that is the amount of time to get in, decide you are over your head and get out. You have to make your decision for turn back or turn out within 45 minutes of entering otherwise you are committed to the remaining time if you don't have "above MEA no-ice conditions below" and you have to be pretty darn sure about those conditions.

 

I also could find no PIREPS on icing other than a Baron on the edge of the wx area over AR to the west reporting light icing at 9000. A look at flightaware.com (pirep by absence) revealed no aircraft below 10,000 feet and below 250 knots in the intended operational area. Equally so, a call to KMKL revealed no operations inbound, snow of unknown depth on the ramp and questionable runway conditions. Cancel. Finally a flight aware flight popped that met my requirement. A small commuter flight called "Southern Airways", departed ATL for MKL. Operating a known ice Cessna Caravan. It made Chattanooga where it executed a 180 and returned to ATL. A discussion with the MKL agent the next day (when I completed the mission) revealed he bailed when he TKS system was at max just to remain airborne. I made the right call.

I post all this just to give you an idea of my personal decision making process, especially if you have a known ice airplane or are new to IFR flying. It is not enough to have a capable airplane, it is knowing what the real capability is and it's limits. Equally so, yes you can approach to 200' and 1/2 mile but can you stop on the runway? Can you taxi in and park? Always leave yourself an out.  6 

[N201MKTurbo]

You didn’t mention the out of landing somewhere else, but then you don’t complete your mission.

[GeeBee]

25 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

You didn’t mention the out of landing somewhere else, but then you don’t complete your mission.

Actually I did. As I mentioned I thought about a divert to HSV, but if your diversion is close to your max ice range or the conditions are no better, it is really not in the game.

[N201MKTurbo]

2 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

Actually I did. As I mentioned I thought about a divert to HSV, but if your diversion is close to your max ice range and the conditions are no better, it is really not in the game.

 In that part of the world, there is an airport with an approach every few miles. If the icing gets bad, you can land at just about any of them.

[GeeBee]

How do you know the runway conditions at an uncontrolled field (where no one is assessing) in the middle of TN?  Can you stop, can you taxi? Can you get transportation? Even if there is transport can they get you on icy roads? Can you get a motel/hotel? Can you get heated shelter period? When the freezing level is right down to the ground and there is snow and rain, you have to presume that the runway condition is not good and that there is no one on the ground to tell you. Equally so as you continue on towards your destination you have to look at your dwindling TKS level and say, "What is my max diversion range with this system on MAX". The longer you run your TKS, the less options you have.

[PT20J]

Your decision seems to me to show wisdom, experience and professionalism. FIKI in light airplanes seems best used to extricate yourself from an icing encounter rather than to prolong flight in icing conditions. You also have to consider the possibility of a TKS failure and have a plan for that. 

Skip

[GeeBee]

50 minutes ago, PT20J said:

Your decision seems to me to show wisdom, experience and professionalism. FIKI in light airplanes seems best used to extricate yourself from an icing encounter rather than to prolong flight in icing conditions. You also have to consider the possibility of a TKS failure and have a plan for that. 

Skip

Yes, thanks! Careful preflight of the TKS system is required. I make sure I got flow and that both pumps work in addition to verifying pitot and stall vane heat.

[Bolter]

@GeeBee As a newer FIKI owner in the Seattle area, and entering my first full winter with this plane, I have been developing my personal limits.   Your summary was useful and included things I had not explicitly considered.  In addition to planning, I have additionally set myself a 30 minute rule for getting into ice (presumably expected, but not always)  when I require myself to review the situation and decide on what my "out" will be.

 

-dan

[201Steve]

@GeeBee Thanks for the write up.
Are u based at GVL? I’m here now (although not in my airplane, too many Christmas presents to fit) and come several times a year. 

[GeeBee]

Yes, I am! I plan to be at the airport tomorrow. Hangar DD4 (SW hangars by Lanier Flight Center). Stop by! We met at KSSI about 2 years ago I believe if you remember.

[A64Pilot]

Only thing I would add is if things go to crap, most important thing is to get on the ground, worrying too much about stopping distance, whether a motel is available nearby etc is the kind of thinking that gets people to push on, when they really know they shouldn’t. Then we read about you and wonder “what was he thinking”?

Once on the ground you can worry about Motels etc, worst case is your sleeping on the couch eating out of the snack machine or similar, but that beats staying in the ice until your fluid runs out.

Neve flown a TKS airplane myself, didn’t know 1.5 was all they had.

[201Steve]

1 hour ago, GeeBee said:

Yes, I am! I plan to be at the airport tomorrow. Hangar DD4 (SW hangars by Lanier Flight Center). Stop by! We met at KSSI about 2 years ago I believe if you remember.

I do remember. If I get ditched again by the fam toMorrow, I might swing by. I spent the day at Laurel Park today solo.  No telling tho, with the holiday comings and goings. 

[Bolter]

38 minutes ago, A64Pilot said:

Only thing I would add is if things go to crap, most important thing is to get on the ground, worrying too much about stopping distance, whether a motel is available nearby etc is the kind of thinking that gets people to push on, when they really know they shouldn’t. Then we read about you and wonder “what was he thinking”?

Once on the ground you can worry about Motels etc, worst case is your sleeping on the couch eating out of the snack machine or similar, but that beats staying in the ice until your fluid runs out.

Neve flown a TKS airplane myself, didn’t know 1.5 was all they had.

In round numbers, My FIKI Ovation is 1.5 hours at MAX flow.  It is about double duration at regular flow.  The volume is about 6 gallons.  The Cirrus FIKI as a comparison is similar durations but has an 8 gallon tank.

[exM20K]

Leaving yourself an “out” begins at least as early as the takeoff roll. Dinky little airports with not-great snow removal may mean you’re committed to fly soon after you apply takeoff power.  No thanks.

and when you fly the (non-precision) approach into a snowy dinky little strip, don’t forget the 120KIAS minimum icing speed.  This speed applies to approach just as it does to climb.

and when you fly the approach into the dinky little field, don’t forget that the FIKI planes are limited to takeoff flaps only if icing has been encountered.  Figure 83 KIAS Vref vs 73.  Do you know you can get stopped on a contaminated dinky little runway in an unfamiliar configuration, sight picture, and airspeed?

real winter weather flying for me is a big airport thing. YMMV.

-dan (based part of the time at a dinky little strip in Illinois)

[whiskytango]

Some folks might not believe it, but there was a time when you talked to a human being to get your Wx briefing.   I can remember a flight made shortly after obtaining my IR.  The Wx was going to get progressively worse in the direction of the destination, and as a recently minted instrument pilot I was not sure I wanted to make the flight.  The briefer made it a point to tell me "Your escape route is..."  Having that information was very helpful in making the decision to proceed.  As @GeeBee said, you must always have an out.  How many NTSB reports have we read where it is clear that there was no out, but the pilot really needed one?

[GeeBee]

3 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

Only thing I would add is if things go to crap, most important thing is to get on the ground, worrying too much about stopping distance, whether a motel is available nearby etc is the kind of thinking that gets people to push on, when they really know they shouldn’t. Then we read about you and wonder “what was he thinking”?

Once on the ground you can worry about Motels etc, worst case is your sleeping on the couch eating out of the snack machine or similar, but that beats staying in the ice until your fluid runs out.

Neve flown a TKS airplane myself, didn’t know 1.5 was all they had.

You have to be able to stop the airplane, that is fundamental. As noted, higher approach speeds when carrying ice.

I guess the point is, diverting to a field of unknown quality and condition is not what I consider an "out". It is an emergency and just like putting it in a field, you may or may not come out ok. If that is your last resort fine, but it is not an "out" that is planned or should be even remotely depended upon. It is likely you will bend the airplane and maybe yourself.

[Ragsf15e]

18 hours ago, Bolter said:

@GeeBee As a newer FIKI owner in the Seattle area, and entering my first full winter with this plane, I have been developing my personal limits.   Your summary was useful and included things I had not explicitly considered.  In addition to planning, I have additionally set myself a 30 minute rule for getting into ice (presumably expected, but not always)  when I require myself to review the situation and decide on what my "out" will be.

 

-dan

I also fly a FIKI airplane in the northwest.  There are a couple of things to consider depending on your aircraft capabilities that I use to help pick cruise altitudes and “outs” for a descent…

I find the temp vs altitude charts very informative.  According to the ifr flying handbook, it’s possible to get ice above 0 C, but I have found that very unlikely.  I usually use the freezing level as my lower bound for ice.  I want to know if I can decend below freezing but above the MEA.  
 

In the Seattle area you can sometimes also get above possible ice by getting to an altitude below -20 C.  If you have a turbo, try to cruise higher than this when possible. especially if you think you’ll be in the clouds.  Ice is very unlikely this cold.  Even in the Seattle class B, I’ve found ATC very accommodating when I’ve told them I wanted a continuous climb or decent through ice vs a step down/up (like on the Skyko arrival when they have you decend to 11,000’ only halfway across the Cascades).  I’ve told them I want a later decent for ice and they worked it out.  If in doubt, “unable” also works.

I have found ice from 0 to -20, but roughly -5 to -15 C in those wet clouds is really a place to avoid.

[GeeBee]

The problem with going high is you have a 120 knot indicated minimum icing speed. If you are up high and climbing it can be difficult to maintain a reasonable rate of climb while looking to get above the ice at that indicated speed.

[aviatoreb]

On this topic - I have been watching this evening, Amundsen: The Greatest Expedition

https://www.amazon.com/Amundsen-Expedition-Pål-Sverre-Hagen/dp/B08YCZSLPX

about the Norwegian guy Amundsen who is credited as first to the North Pole AND the South Pole in the 1920s.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roald_Amundsen

And also in there are depictions of two of his ill fated attempts by air - twice by airplane and once by airship.  Both airplane trips had troubles, one with severe icing which in the 1920s style airplanes, ... they weren't so good at ice.  I was amazed at the bravery, fearlessness, stupidity to try and fly to the North Pole in an old school airplane.  No Nav equipment.  No de-ice equipment.  crappy ancient early engines.  Poor quality fuels.  Icing is eventually what got him.

[ilovecornfields]

On 12/31/2022 at 4:35 PM, aviatoreb said:

On this topic - I have been watching this evening, Amundsen: The Greatest Expedition

https://www.amazon.com/Amundsen-Expedition-Pål-Sverre-Hagen/dp/B08YCZSLPX

about the Norwegian guy Amundsen who is credited as first to the North Pole AND the South Pole in the 1920s.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roald_Amundsen

And also in there are depictions of two of his ill fated attempts by air - twice by airplane and once by airship.  Both airplane trips had troubles, one with severe icing which in the 1920s style airplanes, ... they weren't so good at ice.  I was amazed at the bravery, fearlessness, stupidity to try and fly to the North Pole in an old school airplane.  No Nav equipment.  No de-ice equipment.  crappy ancient early engines.  Poor quality fuels.  Icing is eventually what got him.

Good movie but could have done without the dog cannibalism.

[GeeBee]

On 12/31/2022 at 7:35 PM, aviatoreb said:

On this topic - I have been watching this evening, Amundsen: The Greatest Expedition

https://www.amazon.com/Amundsen-Expedition-Pål-Sverre-Hagen/dp/B08YCZSLPX

about the Norwegian guy Amundsen who is credited as first to the North Pole AND the South Pole in the 1920s.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roald_Amundsen

And also in there are depictions of two of his ill fated attempts by air - twice by airplane and once by airship.  Both airplane trips had troubles, one with severe icing which in the 1920s style airplanes, ... they weren't so good at ice.  I was amazed at the bravery, fearlessness, stupidity to try and fly to the North Pole in an old school airplane.  No Nav equipment.  No de-ice equipment.  crappy ancient early engines.  Poor quality fuels.  Icing is eventually what got him.

Actually as early as the late 1920's the British where "pretreating" aircraft with what would later become TKS fluid by rubbing it on the forward facing parts of the aircraft as well as the propellers before flight. What made the fluid really effective was the continuous application methods developed during WWII.

[aviatoreb]

2 hours ago, GeeBee said:

Actually as early as the late 1920's the British where "pretreating" aircraft with what would later become TKS fluid by rubbing it on the forward facing parts of the aircraft as well as the propellers before flight. What made the fluid really effective was the continuous application methods developed during WWII.

Wow / no kidding?!!

[aviatoreb]

3 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Good movie but could have done without the dog cannibalism.

I think that was historically correct and standard practice.

I saw another movie - forgot the name / where they were doing the sage thing in exploring Greenland.

[thinwing]

On 12/29/2022 at 3:09 PM, A64Pilot said:

Only thing I would add is if things go to crap, most important thing is to get on the ground, worrying too much about stopping distance, whether a motel is available nearby etc is the kind of thinking that gets people to push on, when they really know they shouldn’t. Then we read about you and wonder “what was he thinking”?

Once on the ground you can worry about Motels etc, worst case is your sleeping on the couch eating out of the snack machine or similar, but that beats staying in the ice until your fluid runs out.

Neve flown a TKS airplane myself, didn’t know 1.5 was all they had.

I can tell you that if you are in icing conditions and cannot ether climb or descend to get out of that particular layer..90 min is a lifetime ...My go/no go decision is based on whether i can climb out and get between or above layers.My turbocharging is a vast help....but typically most weather systems I fly thru in the west ,I can get above 90 % of the clag above 17k.

[EricJ]

17 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Wow / no kidding?!!

Alcohol slingers for propeller deicing came along not long after that, I think, in the 1920s and not later than the 1930s.   They're really simple and easy to implement and control, so it was a natural thing to do.