GAMI Unleaded gets approval

[ilovecornfields]

1 minute ago, 1980Mooney said:

Perhaps the best that Swift can do is once Swift 100R is approved (if ever) and available then likely they will convert their 94UL distribution and the existing FBO fuel trucks, tanks and pumps to 100R - and just stop selling 94UL and just sell one grade (100R UL).  Then you will might have the choice to 2 competing 100UL at some airports.

My guess is that is exactly what is going to happen and they will discontinue 94UL and switch to 100 when it is available. I’m guessing that’s part of why they’re pushing the 94 so heavily now, to get the distribution in place and offer an alternative to GAMI’s fuel. They (and the airport) probably don’t care that my plane can’t use 94UL because as far as they’re concerned they’re offering a fuel and whether or not I can use it is my problem. 

Hopefully the Swift 100 gets approved before 100 LL gets banned and then the market can decide the prices and market share.

[aviatoreb]

23 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

My guess is that is exactly what is going to happen and they will discontinue 94UL and switch to 100 when it is available. I’m guessing that’s part of why they’re pushing the 94 so heavily now, to get the distribution in place and offer an alternative to GAMI’s fuel. They (and the airport) probably don’t care that my plane can’t use 94UL because as far as they’re concerned they’re offering a fuel and whether or not I can use it is my problem. 

Hopefully the Swift 100 gets approved before 100 LL gets banned and then the market can decide the prices and market share.

I am guessing somewhere in their calculus is that they like the idea of "renewable" given it comes from switch grass.  And as you say - its your problem if you can't use it/dont want it.  Maybe that's a bonus if airplanes dont come and dont make noise?

[Pinecone]

1 hour ago, jaylw314 said:

Absolutely there will only be one or at most two players in such a small market. Yes, it could absolutely drive out private pilots like you, and you should fear that with no possibility of changing the outcome.  That's just life in a free market--small markets beget few or one supplier.  Why would one expect otherwise?  The only alternative is lots and lots of government regulation and intervention (not a free market, IOTW).

To take that argument ad absurdum, you should absolutely be afraid for many things you buy in a 'free market'.  Eyeglasses, for example, are made by one supplier (they sell through different named suppliers, but they're all actually the same company and a monopoly).  You should absolutely fear being priced out of eyeglasses.  If you poke around, you'll find most things in the market are actually produced, sold or controlled by a monopoly or near monopoly, so you should pretty much be afraid all the time.

The question is (like most things in life), are you able to live with that anxiety, deal with it and enjoy/maximize the opportunities you have while they last?  Or do you carry angst about it indefinitely when there's nothing material or constructive you can do about it, and allow it to minimize your opportunities?

 

And part of it, even with a monopoly, a supplier can price themselves out of the market and reduce their income.

It helps to have a monopoly for something that is not optional.

If there is more than one UL 100 on the market, owners will have to buy multiple STCs or be VERY picky about what airports they land at.

One thing in the favor of G100UL, it can be blended by anyone.  And it does not contaminate equipment.    So if there is money in it, there will be suppliers.  And likely to be more local, cutting transport costs.

[1980Mooney]

22 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

One thing in the favor of G100UL, it can be blended by anyone.  And it does not contaminate equipment.    So if there is money in it, there will be suppliers.  And likely to be more local, cutting transport costs.

"Blended by anyone"...I think you are dreaming.  More "local suppliers" means more potential quality control issues for Avfuel and GAMI.  They are not going to want to deal with a lot of mom and pops on start up of a nationwide distribution plan.  And if there is one, even one, quality issue in the rollout and expansion because of a small/local "blender" it will be a disaster.  - i.e. Chevron, Mobil, etc.  I bet that Avfuel and GAMI stick with larger more reputable chemical suppliers with track records and deep pockets initially even if it means the cost is higher.  What do they care if the cost is more? - they have no competition for now.  At this point in their business plan, they need to grab market share as fast as possible.  They need to reliably deliver perfect quality product while dominating most of the distribution and market.  Then and only when (if?) Swift delivers an approved 100R - then Avfuel/GAMI can work on driving cost down with cheaper suppliers. - further undercutting Swift competitiveness. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by 1980Mooney

[jaylw314]

25 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

And part of it, even with a monopoly, a supplier can price themselves out of the market and reduce their income.

It helps to have a monopoly for something that is not optional.

If there is more than one UL 100 on the market, owners will have to buy multiple STCs or be VERY picky about what airports they land at.

One thing in the favor of G100UL, it can be blended by anyone.  And it does not contaminate equipment.    So if there is money in it, there will be suppliers.  And likely to be more local, cutting transport costs.

Eyewear is not optional.  Private flying is, which actually helps at least some.  I mean, I think we've been flying and using 100LL under a monopoly already, since TEL is produced by only one company (I think).  Why haven't they jacked up fees and prices for TEL to take advantage of their monopoly?

[Canadian Gal]

I'm surprised to read that some people consider it a very small market.

 

In my area of the planet, Jet fuel burning planes are the small part.

[Pinecone]

1 hour ago, 1980Mooney said:

"Blended by anyone"...I think you are dreaming.  More "local suppliers" means more potential quality control issues for Avfuel and GAMI.  They are not going to want to deal with a lot of mom and pops on start up of a nationwide distribution plan.  And if there is one, even one, quality issue in the rollout and expansion because of a small/local "blender" it will be a disaster.  - i.e. Chevron, Mobil, etc.  I bet that Avfuel and GAMI stick with larger more reputable chemical suppliers with track records and deep pockets initially even if it means the cost is higher.  What do they care if the cost is more? - they have no competition for now.  At this point in their business plan, they need to grab market share as fast as possible.  They need to reliably deliver perfect quality product while dominating most of the distribution and market.  Then and only when (if?) Swift delivers an approved 100R - then Avfuel/GAMI can work on driving cost down with cheaper suppliers. - further undercutting Swift competitiveness. 

There are a lot of smaller companies and refineries that can blend quality fuels.

The issue is, with 100LL they contaminate equipment.

Another cost savings over 100LL is there is no need for dedicated trucks to transport it.  If you put 100LL in a truck, you have to drain, clean, rinse and deal with the materials used to clean the truck out.

[N201MKTurbo]

41 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

There are a lot of smaller companies and refineries that can blend quality fuels.

The issue is, with 100LL they contaminate equipment.

Another cost savings over 100LL is there is no need for dedicated trucks to transport it.  If you put 100LL in a truck, you have to drain, clean, rinse and deal with the materials used to clean the truck out.

I think you have it backwards. Nobody is worried about 100LL contaminating anything. The issue is the quality control required for 100LL. They have to clean everything before making and transporting 100LL, not the other way around. The quality standards for Mogas are much lower. I would assume the same quality standards apply too G100UL. 

[Canadian Gal]

33 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

There are a lot of smaller companies and refineries that can blend quality fuels.

The issue is, with 100LL they contaminate equipment.

Another cost savings over 100LL is there is no need for dedicated trucks to transport it.  If you put 100LL in a truck, you have to drain, clean, rinse and deal with the materials used to clean the truck out.

100LL doesn't contaminate the trucks and equipment.

If pumping it off, simply pump enough to clean the manifold and hose real, could be about 20 gallons or so, if really worried about it.

Been around fuel trucks and refineries since I was a child.

My father, brother, and uncle still haul fuel in semi trucks to this day.

I've driven them and hauled fuel myself.

Avgas is not some corrosive acid or something.

Its gas, its in the name.

If you don't believe me, I can arrange for you to talk to my brother, the owner of 6 fuel trucks, and frequent avgas hauler. Heck i run avgas in my motorbikes, quad, and snowmobiles.

Have also put jerry cans of gas station pump gas into several airplanes over the years, to have enough fuel to get home or to an airport, without any issues.

 

Worst that might happen is plugging a cars catalytic converter some running 100ll in a car, so I wouldn't recommend it unless no other choice.

[hais]

On 1/13/2023 at 5:27 PM, John-Paul said:

Don't get me wrong, it isn't altruism.  We hope G100UL is very profitable for us in the long run.  It's a business, and that what businesses (hope) to do.

 

I don't make any claims that we're GA warrior and environmental saviors either.  I think the "lead poising our babies" trope is WAY overplayed.  It isn't a zero effect issue, either. 

 

The writing was on the wall 20 years ago regarding 100LL.  We chose not to bury our heads in the sand when we realized it was a problem we could solve and people would pay us to solve.  That's the free market.

 

Your statements about the STC process illustrates you have NO IDEA what it took to get this done. 

 

You said paying back our investment isn't a concern . . . maybe not to you, but it's sure a concern for those of us hoping to keep the business running.

 

6 months ago, we weren't 100% sure we would EVER get the STCs.  2 months ago, we weren't 100% sure we were EVER going to get to sell STCs.  

 

Like Guy said, Swift may be right on our heels.  Someone we don't even know about might be quietly going through the STC process, and almost done, right now.  EAGLE/PAFI may negate the whole STC process and the FAA may declare all piston engines able to use approved unleaded fuels by some executive fiat.  I might get hit by a school bus tomorrow.  The future is always uncertain.

 

By selling STCs  now for about the cost of a full tank of fuel, we hope to be able to get fuel to market sooner.  That's not a trade secret, that's just sensible business.  Some people out there will appreciate our efforts enough to spend that money to help us accomplish that goal.  They know it will benefit us both in the end.

 

Here's the other side of the free market.  You don't have to ever buy the STC or the fuel.  You can probably get 100LL for years to come.  You can (maybe) switch to an electric airplane or a diesel someday soon.  You can make and certify your own fuel.  You can give up flying and take the bus.  You have options.

 

Trying to paint the owners of GAMI, or plain ol' employees like me, as some kind of gougers, racketeers, or money grubbers makes it plain that you don't know us very well.  Anyone who does know us on a personal level will tell you that isn't who we are.  That's just the truth.

John-Paul

I really feel you don't need to defend yourself nor your business. It's not like you inadvertently caused undesirable outcome. 

From most of us : thank you for your work. 

[Canadian Gal]

9 minutes ago, hais said:

I really feel you don't need to defend yourself nor your business. It's not like you inadvertently caused undesirable outcome. 

From most of us : thank you for your work. 

 

Couldn't agree more.

 

 

[T. Peterson]

3 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

This will also drive the cost up for those that can run on 94UL - it won't be available. 

At best it will be like taking a "regular" burning car to a gas station that has 2 brands of only Premium.  The 2 Premiums may compete for a few cents discount but the "regular" buyers will be paying about a $1 extra over what they used to pay.

I don’t know whether to sell my airplane or just burn it!

[N201MKTurbo]

42 minutes ago, T. Peterson said:

I don’t know whether to sell my airplane or just burn it!

Put it on a pole in your front yard. It will make a great weather vane.

[EricJ]

7 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Put it on a pole in your front yard. It will make a great weather vane.

Advertising!

[N201MKTurbo]

5 minutes ago, EricJ said:

Advertising!

I’m not sure I appreciate using a Mooney to sell weed.

[1980Mooney]

3 hours ago, Canadian Gal said:

I'm surprised to read that some people consider it a very small market.

 

In my area of the planet, Jet fuel burning planes are the small part.

Really? Looking up country consumptions on a daily basis:

Aviation gasoline is a pitifully small market....Auto Gas is about 900 times greater, Milk is about 140 times bigger, Jet A is about 100 times greater, Beer is 37 times bigger, even Orange Juice is double in size....

Canada

• Aviation gasoline - 47,000 gallons per day - about 3 small to medium backyard swimming pools
• Jet A - 2,740,000 gallons per day
• Automobile gasoline - 33,600,000 gallons per day

USA

• Aviation gasoline - 412,000 gallons per day - about 27 small to medium backyard swimming pools
  • About half a backyard swimming pool per state per day - you could fill with a measly hose during the day...
• Jet A - 45,200,000 gallons per day
• Automobile gasoline - 369,400,000 gallons per day
• Milk production - 57,500,000 gallons per day
• Beer production - 15,373,000 gallons per day
• Orange juice production - 874,000 gallons per day

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by 1980Mooney

[Canadian Gal]

In bigger cities they probably use much more Jet A.

Head north a ways, or to smaller towns, and good luck even finding Jet fuel for sale, but Avgas is pretty common.

47k gallons a day sounds like a lot to me.

I could do a lot of flying with that much

[Pinecone]

12 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I think you have it backwards. Nobody is worried about 100LL contaminating anything. The issue is the quality control required for 100LL. They have to clean everything before making and transporting 100LL, not the other way around. The quality standards for Mogas are much lower. I would assume the same quality standards apply too G100UL. 

No, you have to seriously clean anything that comes in contact with 100LL before it can be used for anything else.

Or dedicate the equipment and trucks for ONLY 100LL.

 

[N201MKTurbo]

30 minutes ago, Pinecone said:

No, you have to seriously clean anything that comes in contact with 100LL before it can be used for anything else.

Or dedicate the equipment and trucks for ONLY 100LL.

 

I guess we will have to disagree on this. Where can we find an expert to settle this?

[amillet]

Aren’t we all experts (at everything)  ( in our own minds)

[N201MKTurbo]

This is the best document on the production and transport of AVGAS I’ve found. The description of AVGAS starts in chapter 7. The discussion of transportation and intermixing is in appendix A. Even though they don’t differentiate between jet fuel and AVGAS much, it all revolves around quality of the product. It says that any contaminated product is sent back to the refinery for reprocessing. There is no mention of AVGAS contaminating anything.

I worked at a place where they stored JP10. They did all of the quality checks mentioned in this document before every usage. I had them walk me through all the tests and explained all the equipment. I kind of geek out on that stuff.

aviation-tech-review.pdf

[gmonnig]

13 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

Really? Looking up country consumptions on a daily basis:

Aviation gasoline is a pitifully small market....Auto Gas is about 900 times greater, Milk is about 140 times bigger, Jet A is about 100 times greater, Beer is 37 times bigger, even Orange Juice is double in size....

Canada

• Aviation gasoline - 47,000 gallons per day - about 3 small to medium backyard swimming pools
• Jet A - 2,740,000 gallons per day
• Automobile gasoline - 33,600,000 gallons per day

USA

• Aviation gasoline - 412,000 gallons per day - about 27 small to medium backyard swimming pools
  • About half a backyard swimming pool per state per day - you could fill with a measly hose during the day...
• Jet A - 45,200,000 gallons per day
• Automobile gasoline - 369,400,000 gallons per day
• Milk production - 57,500,000 gallons per day
• Beer production - 15,373,000 gallons per day
• Orange juice production - 874,000 gallons per day

 

With those kinds of daily numbers, does anyone else think like me? How the hell can we find and refine that much fuel? The oil in the ground must be an unimaginable number, and obviously going to run out. Maybe not in my lifetime but maybe my kid's or his kids. Weird to think about.

[EricJ]

2 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

This is the best document on the production and transport of AVGAS I’ve found. The description of AVGAS starts in chapter 7. The discussion of transportation and intermixing is in appendix A. Even though they don’t differentiate between jet fuel and AVGAS much, it all revolves around quality of the product. It says that any contaminated product is sent back to the refinery for reprocessing. There is no mention of AVGAS contaminating anything.

I worked at a place where they stored JP10. They did all of the quality checks mentioned in this document before every usage. I had them walk me through all the tests and explained all the equipment. I kind of geek out on that stuff.

aviation-tech-review.pdf 1.28 MB · 0 downloads

At one of our recent airport pilot's association pancake breakfasts the city sent one of the people from the environmental office that oversees disposal of all the stuff we put in the recycle sheds, e.g., used oil, solvents, batteries, tires, etc.    She said disposing of the used oil  and solvents costs the city anywhere from nearly nothing to $10k/month depending on how many contaminants are found in it at the recycling company.   We are allowed to put "up to one gallon" of leaded avgas in the solvent tank, but she said if it gets to be too much it winds up costing a LOT more to dispose of.

So even the contaminated used stuff is more contaminated when it has lead in it, apparently.   We were asked to be careful about what we put in the tanks, because it turns into real money when they try to get rid of it.

[N201MKTurbo]

48 minutes ago, gmonnig said:

With those kinds of daily numbers, does anyone else think like me? How the hell can we find and refine that much fuel? The oil in the ground must be an unimaginable number, and obviously going to run out. Maybe not in my lifetime but maybe my kid's or his kids. Weird to think about.

I used to think about it a lot, I still do. There used to be a forum called The Oil Drum which I was as active on as I am on Mooneyspace now. The archives are still out there. That forum had some of the brightest people I’ve ver met. One in particular was Robert Rapier who was a process engineer for ConocoPhillips. He knew everything about the oil business from the deepest chemistry to the board room. He designed oil refineries. There was endless discussions about oil depletion. If you think it will never happen, you should go read the archives. We seem to be in the beginning of the phase described as “undulating prices”, which happens at the beginning of the phase where the oil markets start to become supply driven instead of demand driven. Granted, the current situation was driven by political events more than actual supply constraints, but it does illustrate the world is struggling to make up the difference when a large supply (Russia) is taken off the market.

I was predicted that a technological change like the widespread use of precision horizontal drilling and hydro fracturing (fracking) could alter the inevitable timeline. But when the large reservoirs stop producing, it will be the beginning of the end. 
 

We will never run out of oil. But we won’t be able to produce it at an ever increasing rate. At some point demand will outstrip production and the prices will increase to the point that demand reduces. That means gas is to expensive for most people to afford. Most people cannot wrap their heads around that concept. They say “I have to have gas!” They cannot conceive of a situation where it is unavailable. When this day comes, it will have a profound effect on global society.

The one thing that intrigues me is the same mitigations for oil depletion are what they are touting for Climate Change. They are just putting the cart before the horse. I often wonder if the folks at the WEF (Davos) are trying to mitigate oil depletion under the guise of Climate Change? The only reason I can think of for them to do that is so there would be more total oil left for the governments and the elites. It cannot be disputed, in our current world, that power is centered on oil. No nation without oil will ever win a war against a nation with oil.

OK, putting the tin foil hat back in the closet and getting to my chores…..

[N201MKTurbo]

6 minutes ago, EricJ said:

At one of our recent airport pilot's association pancake breakfasts the city sent one of the people from the environmental office that oversees disposal of all the stuff we put in the recycle sheds, e.g., used oil, solvents, batteries, tires, etc.    She said disposing of the used oil  and solvents costs the city anywhere from nearly nothing to $10k/month depending on how many contaminants are found in it at the recycling company.   We are allowed to put "up to one gallon" of leaded avgas in the solvent tank, but she said if it gets to be too much it winds up costing a LOT more to dispose of.

So even the contaminated used stuff is more contaminated when it has lead in it, apparently.   We were asked to be careful about what we put in the tanks, because it turns into real money when they try to get rid of it.

It seems to me that with a little chemistry, you could precipitate out the lead. It is such a small problem, it is probably cheaper to dispose of it as hazardous waste than to mitigate it.

But who is throwing away AVGAS? Unless someone is sumping their tanks and throwing it in their used oil bucket instead of putting it back in their tank. If you are afraid of putting it back in your tank, put it in a separate bucket and just let it evaporate. The DEQ will love that.