AirVenture 2020 Canceled

[N9201A]

I just wish someone would come out and give us a plan. 

Jack Pelton’s message said his governing authority set three stages, the third of which permitted mass gatherings, but they weren’t at the first yet. So they weren’t close to the benchmarks identified.

None of the states have met the benchmarks set by the federal government (which doesn’t bind any state). One of the states “reopening” just hit a new high in deaths. Time will tell what the right plan would have been, and hopefully we will learn from this.

We are also again reminded we are stuck with the leadership we elect, and this whole crisis underscores that maybe all the good stuff doesn’t just happen on its own or “run itself.”

[N9201A]

I have always liked the buck stops here quote and that seems to be a long lost sentiment.  

Nope. Today we have “I take no responsibility.” Sad...

[ilovecornfields]

6 hours ago, Danb said:

Crap just canceled hotel... the virus is brutal, I just bought a new car in Pompano Beach and have to have it shipped to De, no way am I ready to get in a hotel not knowing who left there mark. Next month 50th anniversary cancelled Italy vacation. Currently canceling spring trips, hopefully July things may be clean although I’d be keeping my distance and be sanitary 

Actually, I had to travel for work and although I was worried about the hotel it was the easiest part. I asked if they could give me a room that no one had been in for the last 72 hours and they said “We’ll give you a room that no one has touched for a week!” There were only 20 people at the hotel (not a small hotel). 
 

There were pretty accommodating with essentially a “no touch” check in and they gave me a ground level room with no maid service. With my ground level room the only thing I had to touch between my car and my room was the doorknob to my room. 

[donkaye, MCFI]

I had a feeling AirVenture was going to be cancelled this year.  It seemed like it was going to be the smart thing to do.  Actually, I'm glad someone else made the decision instead of me having to make it had they decided to put it on anyway.   It's been one of our major trips every year for the past 21 straight years.  It's always an adventure--always different.  It's fun to look forward to it.  Fun to plan it.  Fun to adjust for the changing weather situations flying to it.  Fun to sometimes fly the Caravan.  Fun to play in the AirVenture Band.  Fun to go to all the events.  Fun to see the airshows.  Fun to go through the exhibits.  Fun to go to the Forums.  Fun to see all the new unexpected "toys" to buy.  Fun to see so many of our Mooney friends.  Fun just to be in Oshkosh among so many people who have the same interest as I have in aviation.

What to do now?  Change of plans, since every event of the year we had planned on attending so far has been cancelled.  Time to make a little lemonade out of a bunch of lemons.  All of those trips would have cost something, sometimes a large something.  So, first off, next week, after a 3 year delay, the plane goes in to finally get the GMA 35c to work properly,  I upgraded to it years ago so that I could have bluetooth for music from the iPad and phone, but it never worked.  The other thing I had been mulling over for the past several months that I thought too extravagant to do, since I had perfectly good working units was to upgrade my GTN 750 and GTN 650 to the Xi units.  The basic units are great, but sometime in the future Garmin is going to make use of that extra speed and update the software to something the basic units can't do just like they've done with the G500TXi, and I'd be disappointed that I didn't do the upgrade earlier.  So, with some of that "saved" money, after AirVenture was cancelled today, I arranged to have those units upgraded, something to look forward to.  For a couple of seconds I even thought about getting the new Aera 760, then decided that although a few ounces heavier and a little thicker, the 796 does almost everything the 760 does and doesn't require buying another piece of equipment, the GDL 52, to get XM weather.  I'm sticking with the 796.

So, although lack of AirVenture is a disappointment this year, I'm somewhat making up for it with some new toys for the plane, and looking forward to the time when we can get back to doing what we all love to do--go flying whenever and wherever we want to go.

[ragedracer1977]

8 hours ago, David_H said:

If the government shared the actual lock-down plans, most people wouldn't accept them.

Two weeks is probably the maximum amount of time that the government believes most of the public will willingly accept without creating a conflict. Rinse and repeat.

That's what I'm really afraid of. 

I could maybe accept whatever the plan is, if I I knew what it was.  But no one is saying, and the politicians keep moving the goal posts.

Sooner or later, it's going to get ugly.  Adults can only hear "2 more weeks" so many times.

[ilovecornfields]

23 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

That's what I'm really afraid of. 

I could maybe accept whatever the plan is, if I I knew what it was.  But no one is saying, and the politicians keep moving the goal posts.

Sooner or later, it's going to get ugly.  Adults can only hear "2 more weeks" so many times.

Like this?

https://www.emergencyslo.org/en/start.aspx#Phase-Three

[Danb]

Unfortunately we have to get our lives moving albeit safely, slowly and with caution. I don’t want our economy to continue on its downward spiral crumbling to a slow death. I pray our government will figure a comprehensive way to accomplish the task I’m sure with the intense fighting and hatred between the parties the chance of this occurring is slight at best. 

[N201MKTurbo]

I was at a Circle K yesterday getting a soda. It was very busy. People were queueing up to check out on the social distancing lines as they should, except behind the last social distancing line the line made a 90 degree turn and people were packed as tight as possible waiting to get to the first social distancing line....

[David_H]

9 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Like this?

https://www.emergencyslo.org/en/start.aspx#Phase-Three

Hopefully people will read this so they can understand that these are only proposed guidelines that are backed by no authority. 

[EricJ]

10 hours ago, ragedracer1977 said:

That's what I'm really afraid of. 

I could maybe accept whatever the plan is, if I I knew what it was.  But no one is saying, and the politicians keep moving the goal posts.

Sooner or later, it's going to get ugly.  Adults can only hear "2 more weeks" so many times.

A number of people/agencies/institutes that I trust are saying it may be 18-24 months before things really return to normal, and it's very possible that some things will be permanently affected.   This does not mean that there will be egregious draconian infringements and your bathroom breaks will be scheduled, it just means that there will likely be restrictions and measures that would not be considered normal.

If people want something to plan to, just plan on this lasting quite a bit longer.   What "this" means will likely be dynamic, but I suspect it'll also likely be gradual easing for a long time.

The big mystery to me is why we still can't get TP.   It's been a couple months.   wtf?

[N201MKTurbo]

2 hours ago, EricJ said:

A number of people/agencies/institutes that I trust are saying it may be 18-24 months before things really return to normal, and it's very possible that some things will be permanently affected.   This does not mean that there will be egregious draconian infringements and your bathroom breaks will be scheduled, it just means that there will likely be restrictions and measures that would not be considered normal.

If people want something to plan to, just plan on this lasting quite a bit longer.   What "this" means will likely be dynamic, but I suspect it'll also likely be gradual easing for a long time.

The big mystery to me is why we still can't get TP.   It's been a couple months.   wtf?

They have been making movies about the apocalypse (zombie or otherwise) sense the 1920s. In none of those movies was there a single mention of TP!

[carusoam]

It takes humans 18 months or so to get over things to get back to normal...

This takes fixing the Primary problem first...

1) Fixing the problem adequately would be nice... 

• Some people will have recovered from the virus...
• Some people will be happy knowing there is proper meds if they later get the virus...
• Vaccines and herd immunity are still off in the distance

2) People slowly return to what they liked to do before all the shake-up occurred...

3) Odd examples where the 18 month rule comes from... Chipotle.

4) Each time they had a healthcare problem (they had two)... they had to identify what it was, what was causing it, determine a solution, implement it....

5) Try to advertise and market it... but people are slow to trust things they can’t Easily measure....

6) 18 months later... everyone is back at chipotle eating up a storm... until round two occurs... a few years later... the financial return to normal was measured by their earnings reports... lots of procedural changes were instituted...

Hey... where did all those sneeze guards come from in the 80s? The old normal didn’t have sneeze guards getting in the way...

7) With C19 pandemic... it’s not just one business...

8) Other businesses have had the honor of leading by example... anyone remember Jack In The Box?  A healthcare lesson 101... ecoli back in 1993...

9) Expect that we will get through this...

10) Expect that we will fight the necessary battles to maintain our freedoms...

11) Expect to find a new normal afterwards...

12) Expect that we will be better prepared when the expected next virus comes around...

13) Young people will always flock to NYC for New Year’s Eve... no matter what...   

14) My chances of being in NYC for NYE become less each year... even though time square is much more user friendly for pedestrians than ever before... talking about new normal... 

Change, it’s the one thing that is constant in the world...

Best regards,

-a-

[MooneyMitch]

“Change, it’s the one thing that is constant in the world...“

Right up there along with death, taxes and yard weeds ! 

[ragedracer1977]

14 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

Like this?

https://www.emergencyslo.org/en/start.aspx#Phase-Three

There's not even real definitions there.  It uses terms like "significant" and "rare" without defining what they mean.  Does no significant new cases mean 100 a day? A 1000? 10? 

[ragedracer1977]

I saw that yesterday, for some reason, the CDC cut the covid deaths almost 50%.

That's pretty significant without any explanation

[PT20J]

15 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

I saw that yesterday, for some reason, the CDC cut the covid deaths almost 50%.

That's pretty significant without any explanation

No, just another mischaracterization of real data spread by the Twitterverse.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/coronavirus-death-toll-cdc-misinformation

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Skip

 

[ilovecornfields]

54 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

There's not even real definitions there.  It uses terms like "significant" and "rare" without defining what they mean.  Does no significant new cases mean 100 a day? A 1000? 10? 

It’s like pornography. You know it when you see it. ;-)

Sorry it wasn’t specific enough for you. I thought it was a good step in the right direction and basically what everyone has been asking for. It’s still open to public comment so feel free to share your thoughts with them.

Edited May 2, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[PT20J]

5 hours ago, EricJ said:

The big mystery to me is why we still can't get TP.   It's been a couple months.   wtf?

I read an article about this a couple of weeks ago. Initially it was a bit of panic buying, but then other factors set in. There are two distinct markets for TP: Commercial and consumer. Commercial is that stuff you find at work -- thin and coarse -- made from a lot of recycled paper fiber and packaged in bulk. Consumer grade is softer, all new material and packaged for end user sale. The plants that make one kind cannot easily switch to the other. It's a low margin/high volume product and the plants run near capacity 24/7 to maximize efficiency. Along comes the stay at home orders and what happens? Demand for commercial TP plummets while demand for consumer TP increases. Supply chains are more complex than we probably ever cared to think about. Flour is currently in short supply even though there is no shortage of wheat because people staying at home are baking a lot more than usual.

Skip

[aviatoreb]

11 minutes ago, PT20J said:

I read an article about this a couple of weeks ago. Initially it was a bit of panic buying, but then other factors set in. There are two distinct markets for TP: Commercial and consumer. Commercial is that stuff you find at work -- thin and coarse -- made from a lot of recycled paper fiber and packaged in bulk. Consumer grade is softer, all new material and packaged for end user sale. The plants that make one kind cannot easily switch to the other. It's a low margin/high volume product and the plants run near capacity 24/7 to maximize efficiency. Along comes the stay at home orders and what happens? Demand for commercial TP plummets while demand for consumer TP increases. Supply chains are more complex than we probably ever cared to think about. Flour is currently in short supply even though there is no shortage of wheat because people staying at home are baking a lot more than usual.

Skip

Right - but I want to say its panic buying like a run on the bank.  Flour initially becomes a little bit scarce because people are using it as you said but then it becomes very scarce because when it starts disappearing people then "run on the" flour.

[PT20J]

16 hours ago, ragedracer1977 said:

That's what I'm really afraid of. 

I could maybe accept whatever the plan is, if I I knew what it was.  But no one is saying, and the politicians keep moving the goal posts.

Sooner or later, it's going to get ugly.  Adults can only hear "2 more weeks" so many times.

Have you checked out Trump's guidelines (it doesn't appear that some states have)?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Skip

 

[GeeBee]

The American people will decide when and where to open up the economy and when and where  to keep things shut down. Governors seem to think they are in control, but believe me you only get mass compliance if you have mass credibility, and that is starting to get in short supply in some states. MI for example. You can operate a sail boat, but not a motor boat. Really?

How does the IRS get everyone to pay their taxes? A combination of fear and good citizenship. Once fear is gone depending on citizenship demands a buy in by those governed. If that goes, it looks like the gates to the palace in October 1917 in Saint Petersburg.

I live in GA which. has been much maligned for early opening. I can tell you even though restaurants were allowed to open last Monday, I can't name a one that has, even dine in fast food has not opened. My barber shop that was allowed to open a week ago Friday, just opened today, with a lot of their own restrictions in place. Still we support our governor's decision because he is giving "We the people" our choice and recognizing a free and informed people will make good decisions.

The American people are not stupid and we can manage our affairs in this virus infested world IF given the correct information and not using fear as a method of compliance. We have heard unbelievable things initially from supposed "experts" such as "masks don't work". Just about anyone with common sense knew that was BS and.....credibility damaged. First it was "Lock down" to "bend the curve" and manage hospital surge. We bought in.  Then it. became, "Lock downs save lives". Really? Well if so we will have to remain lock downed until no one dies of the virus as a moral imperative if we are to value each and every life. Credibility damaged again. We are now arriving at the point were the people have a pretty good grip on how to run things without the so called "experts"  who keep moving the goal posts, indeed changing the shape of the goal. and that is when non compliance will begin. First a little then a lot.  Then everyone storms the gates. Wise governments will have already unlocked them.  

Mr. Pelton like every other American is making a sensible and reasonable decision based upon a number of factors including, medical information and lead times in the face of uncertainty.  Mr. Pelton is a great American. He has made his own informed decision and not waited for government to make it for him.

[amillet]

One issue I haven’t seen being discussed is potential civil liability risk for those ignoring stay at home orders who are later found to be traced to a transmission chain leading to infection.  I’m a lawyer but not a personal injury/litigation lawyer.

[EricJ]

43 minutes ago, GeeBee said:

We are now arriving at the point were the people have a pretty good grip on how to run things without the so called "experts"  who keep moving the goal posts, indeed changing the shape of the goal. and that is when non compliance will begin. First a little then a lot.  Then everyone storms the gates. Wise governments will have already unlocked them.  

In a dynamic situation where you're learning more as you go along, you'd better hope they're moving the goal posts because it means they're using what they're learning.

The so-called "experts" in the cockpit that are driving that big airplane had better do it like the passengers want or they'll take over and do it themselves.   Or is that not what you meant?

[ilovecornfields]

This is an interesting article about New Zealand. I have a friend who is a medical student there and it sounds like their approach and response has been quite different from ours. I wonder if they may be able to hold large events this summer given their early success at dealing with the virus.
 

https://apple.news/AvqL8-vIKSEOAN24XNUvaBQ

[carusoam]

Quote from ILC’s link....

by cutting off the arrival of new cases and choking out existing ones with the restrictions. “We have the opportunity to do something no other country has achieved: elimination of the virus,”
 

 

My take on that...

great plan...

Great execution...

The author... holed up for four weeks...

I think more people live in NYC then the entire country of New Zealand...

 

Each time the virus survives, for whatever reason.... the elimination project starts over.

 

How do you get 300 million people to get on board this train...

I like the idea...

 

In NJ, Parks opened for the first time in a month...

I didn’t go visit... won’t go until tomorrow... late...

 

The nice weather brings people outside... 

They have to be long distance runners to be where I will be at.

hard to run any too far and be carrying a virus... too. 
 

Best regards,

-a-