Future of Mooney: Speculation thread

[toto]

So let's say that the furlough really is temporary, and that Mooney has something amazing up their sleeves...

What is it?

Restarting the M10 line?

Retooling for a turbprop?

Relaunching as a build-assist facility for experimental J models?

Partnership with Tesla and an all-new electric powerplant?

[KSMooniac]

Of that list, unfortunately something electric is what makes the most sense, and even so, isn't very encouraging.

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[carusoam]

Toto, 

See if this is what you had in mind...

Shortage of cash...

Survival will be the primary objective...

Pick something that has a short time period for bringing cash in over the transom...

Staying focused on the things that bring in money is important...

Selling Mooneys sounds like a good place to stay focused...

picking long term, pie in the Sky ideas, won’t have enough time for the needed pay back...  

there has been no home-runs for years... it is not time to swing for the fences...

keep the focus on everything that brings in dough now...

Do not, for once, ever drop the ball on quality...

Take no short cuts...

Communicate both directions... top-down, and bottom-up...

Identifying where the ship is leaking from, takes all hands on deck... 24/7

Stop the leaks...

then put a serious financial plan together...

The people that need to be impressed with the plan are the same people somebody was complaining about yesterday...

Stay focused!

 

Ever struggle and fight to keep a business afloat?

Fortunately, the economy is as strong as ever... it’s not 2007.

The product is great!

Go sell it.

Communicate...

• prospective customers
• Existing Customers
• suppliers
• existing owners
• know where you are going
• drive/fly the shortest, straightest path to get there...

Know that miracles happen, it may take some luck...   the harder everyone works as a team... they luckier they will be...

Hope and wishful thinking are not part of a successful flight plan.

Or did you want a wish list...

• turbine
• pressurized
• low cost 
• composite
• 

Best regards,

-a-

 

[orionflt]

The big question is what is the status of soaring america corp and the Meijing group, since they have been funding Mooney internationals short falls. also what is the status of Mooney China?     

[EricJ]

Pyramid fractional ownership scheme.   For company shares and/or airplanes.   Timeshare schemes for airplanes (wait, didn't they actually try that?)...yes, it's still on the website.   D'oh.

 

 

[exM20K]

Two rules to live by in business:

1. Sell What's On The Truck 
2. Don't Run Out of Money

If you can't do those, you don't have a business; you have an idea.

[carusoam]

SWAT...

• Sell
• What’s
• Available
• Today

 

Machine sales 101...

something you learn as new guy on the team.... 

-a-

[67 m20F chump]

They haven’t been supporting what they already built.  I contacted Mooney to do a yoke swap this year.  They wanted $5400 for it.  That’s a F off price.  Look at all the interest people have for a cowl.  Mooney could be selling the crap out of parts but they don’t want to.  
 

Mooney is a great aircraft.  Keeping them flying just got harder.

[Jerry 5TJ]

10 hours ago, carusoam said:

did you want a wish list...

• turbine
• pressurized
• low cost 
• composite

Gee....I want all of those simultaneously, too.  

[gsxrpilot]

I have a different take on this and could be way off... but from the little bit I know...

I don't think the Meijing group ever intended to run Mooney as a profitable business. It's just a rounding error on her balance sheet. I expect when the trade wars with China are over, they'll start back up and go on as if nothing happened. The Meijing group is required to be in the aviation business by Chinese regulations. So they are. But with the ongoing trade war, they've been given the green light to shut it down for the time being. 

And with no loyalty to the brand, the employees, or even the profit that would come from a properly run enterprise, they've just turned off the switch until they need to turn it back on.

So I don't think this has anything to do with the balance sheet at Mooney.

[afward]

Paul, as much as I want to argue with you, I think there might be some truth to what you're saying.  Don't get me wrong, the CEO of Meijing Group has multiple advanced degrees in aviation and probably really is interested, but I'd be really shocked if Meijing Group wasn't at least partly owned by the state and therefore beholden to the Xi regime.

Of course, the optimist in my also wants to say they did a temporary shutdown so they could focus on re-tooling the assembly line and/or engineering a new (less expensive to build) model (a short body trainer would be perfect).  Alas, I'm aware that's an extremely remote possibility...

[Stephen]

58 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

I have a different take on this and could be way off... but from the little bit I know...

I don't think the Meijing group ever intended to run Mooney as a profitable business. It's just a rounding error on her balance sheet. I expect when the trade wars with China are over, they'll start back up and go on as if nothing happened. The Meijing group is required to be in the aviation business by Chinese regulations. So they are. But with the ongoing trade war, they've been given the green light to shut it down for the time being. 

And with no loyalty to the brand, the employees, or even the profit that would come from a properly run enterprise, they've just turned off the switch until they need to turn it back on.

So I don't think this has anything to do with the balance sheet at Mooney.

Interesting take. 

[alextstone]

1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

I have a different take on this and could be way off... but from the little bit I know...

I don't think the Meijing group ever intended to run Mooney as a profitable business. It's just a rounding error on her balance sheet. I expect when the trade wars with China are over, they'll start back up and go on as if nothing happened. The Meijing group is required to be in the aviation business by Chinese regulations. So they are. But with the ongoing trade war, they've been given the green light to shut it down for the time being. 

And with no loyalty to the brand, the employees, or even the profit that would come from a properly run enterprise, they've just turned off the switch until they need to turn it back on.

So I don't think this has anything to do with the balance sheet at Mooney.

Damn, Paul @gsxrpilot, that's a fresh perspective indeed!

[Austintatious]

I wonder if they could make any money doing something similar to the Renaissance Commanders...  Buy older models with run out engines for cheap... completely gut and refurbish them with modern avionics, New engine, interior, Head to toe inspection and fresh paint,  new windows and  Sold as New*  with some warranty.  Could bring a really nice and basically NEW aircraft to market for relatively cheap.

 

Old Mooney with run out engine         50k

Install new engine                                 40k

G1000 Suite                                            30k

New paint                                               20k

say 300 hours labor                             30k

factor 40k for warranty work              40k

Interior                                                     10k

__________________________________________

                                                               220k

 

Sell them for 300k  .... what other NEW certified aircraft would come close?    That's a profit of 80-120 k per aircraft... of course there are only so many available to buy, but perhaps you could offer a program for existing owners to upgrade for 250k and get all the new goodies + warranty and charge less.

                                  

 

[KSMooniac]

A G1000 suite is closer to 100k than 30k.

Otherwise, I like idea and would pick G3X + GFC500 or Dynon HDX suite as neither of those are locked into the plane like current G1000 systems.

I think only the factory could do a program like this and fetch the 300k-ish sales prices, just for the possible illusion of legitimacy selling a premium refurb at a premium price. If anyone else did a full makeover of a plane, I doubt they could fetch the premium price.

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[afward]

Basler has the model for this.  Their turboprop DC-3s are considered 0 time, even though all of them were originally built decades ago.  Of course, they literally re-manufacture the airplane.  By the time they are done, every part, weld, and joint has been directly inspected and either remediated, replaced, or signed-off as "to spec".

That would be a really neat program for Mooney to pick up...  Buy older planes with run-out engines and crap avionics, strip them down and re-manufacture them with modern panel, prop, reman engine, and interior.  Bonus points for applying newer design features along the way (primarily aerodynamic tweaks, but silly stuff like upgrading the overhead vents to NACA inlet style could also happen).  I don't think it could be done for 300 hours of labor, though.  Maybe 500?

Anyway, the concept isn't bad, and in the process would be a revenue stream for the company that would let them continue to compete...  172 money to get into a re-manufactured 201-clone F with Dynon glass panel and a nearly original useful load?  Yes, please.

[MooneyMitch]

3 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

I have a different take on this and could be way off... but from the little bit I know...

I don't think the Meijing group ever intended to run Mooney as a profitable business. It's just a rounding error on her balance sheet. I expect when the trade wars with China are over, they'll start back up and go on as if nothing happened. The Meijing group is required to be in the aviation business by Chinese regulations. So they are. But with the ongoing trade war, they've been given the green light to shut it down for the time being. 

And with no loyalty to the brand, the employees, or even the profit that would come from a properly run enterprise, they've just turned off the switch until they need to turn it back on.

So I don't think this has anything to do with the balance sheet at Mooney.

Quite plausible indeed.   Long term plan.  

[Stephen]

16 hours ago, carusoam said:

 

Survival will be the primary objective...

Pick something that has a short time period for bringing cash in over the transom...

Staying focused on the things that bring in money is important...

Selling Mooneys sounds like a good place to stay focused...

picking long term, pie in the Sky ideas, won’t have enough time for the needed pay back...  

there has been no home-runs for years... it is not time to swing for the fences...

keep the focus on everything that brings in dough now...

Do not, for once, ever drop the ball on quality...

Take no short cuts...

Communicate both directions... top-down, and bottom-up...

Identifying where the ship is leaking from, takes all hands on deck... 24/7

Stop the leaks...

then put a serious financial plan together...

The people that need to be impressed with the plan are the same people somebody was complaining about yesterday...

Stay focused!

 

 

 

Agreed and well thought out  summary - as always. One tuning that I would offer to the above guidance is to focus on bringing in GP, not revenue. It is amazing how many business that I coach get those two confused with each widget they sell getting them further and further in debt, or more insidiously, make them grow their volume on razor thin margins so that a minor  market speed bump takes them out because they lack the reserves/competencies etc to pivot. I try to remind them that in a viable, sustainable business (not artificially sustained by constant investment) we are forced to spend revenue on COGS and  profit is the only thing  is available to spend on things you want and need.

 That is why I was armchair pontificating in the other thread that Mooney may want to strongly consider how they may be able re-aim the organization to serve, and enhance the existing fleet. That is out of the box and a big slice of humble pie for a once great manufacturer but it may be a way to stabilize cash flow/markets and then expand. That said, an existing-fleet only model may not be easy, obvious ....or even turn out to be feasible, but  it is something worth seriously considering because it uses "what is on the truck". Just off the cuff brainstorming here, but in addition to optimizing the parts business,  perhaps mods to increase the utility, usability, sustainability of the existing fleet may be one place to start. Maybe replacements with lighter components accompanied with STC's for better UL (this company is redoing the Glasair III in carbon fiber: https://advanced-aero.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/G3-Brochure-2018-small.pdf), VG's etc? Perhaps a highly streamlined windshield/cowl (license Saber Cowl!) replacement program done at the factory and in an assembly line like fashion to create a compelling offering. It would revolutionize everything M20F and older.... maybe offer airframe-secured financing program with it to remove financial barriers and bring in additional GP. Lets say you could send your F, C, E in and 25-35K later come out with a new cowl, windscreen, better induction and possible useful load and other restriction improvements. Again, totally spitballing a minimum viable bootstrap scenario but we all want them to succeed. 

Anyway @carusoam as I said, solid thoughts, I always look forward to your viewpoint

 

 

 

 

 

[DonMuncy]

3 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

I have a different take on this and could be way off... but from the little bit I know...

I don't think the Meijing group ever intended to run Mooney as a profitable business. It's just a rounding error on her balance sheet. I expect when the trade wars with China are over, they'll start back up and go on as if nothing happened. The Meijing group is required to be in the aviation business by Chinese regulations. So they are. But with the ongoing trade war, they've been given the green light to shut it down for the time being. 

And with no loyalty to the brand, the employees, or even the profit that would come from a properly run enterprise, they've just turned off the switch until they need to turn it back on.

So I don't think this has anything to do with the balance sheet at Mooney.

I hope you are right, Paul

[RobertGary1]

1 hour ago, afward said:

Basler has the model for this.  Their turboprop DC-3s are considered 0 time, even though all of them were originally built decades ago.  Of course, they literally re-manufacture the airplane.  By the time they are done, every part, weld, and joint has been directly inspected and either remediated, replaced, or signed-off as "to spec"

I think the difference is that you can buy a number of new single engine planes that basically meet the same mission objective as a Mooney. There really is no substitute for the DC-3 on the market today.

-Robert

[kortopates]

5 hours ago, afward said:

Don't get me wrong, the CEO of Meijing Group has multiple advanced degrees in aviation and probably really is interested, but I'd be really shocked if Meijing Group wasn't at least partly owned by the state and therefore beholden to the Xi regime.

The Meijing group is private business, not even sure its owner, Veronica, even goes by a CEO title, she was always introduced to me as Owner or Head of Meijing group when I was over there. I think you're confusing Dr Jerry Chen, whom she hired to run Soaring at Chino initially to develop the M10 and provide the 10 year vision business plan. He left Soaring a few years ago; yet rumored to be providing consulting services to her. But fundamentally she knows very little about aviation. But she's am incredibly talented young woman that became a billionaire in her 40's in real estate development and is now diversifying into other businesses including healthcare here in the US.  But as Paul said, Mooney international didn't need to be profitable for her to be successful. She just needed a solid and very well respected brand name that the Chinese people would trust. She also needed an economical trainer that could thrive in China to enable her to get into the expected explosion of GA training  coming soon - hence the diesel M10 project (avgas is hard to obtain in China). Her future profits where expected to be in China yet with a long term vision that was going to take time.  There wasn't even confidence in the Kerrville team to build a new design composite trainer so a new team was developed under Jerry to design and take it through certification.  When that fell through, many of the Chino team went on to Kerrville. I lost touch by then but assume the Chino talent took a big role in the new developments we've seen in the recent M20 refinements.   

Edited November 14, 2019 by kortopates

[Austintatious]

3 hours ago, RobertGary1 said:

I think the difference is that you can buy a number of new single engine planes that basically meet the same mission objective as a Mooney. There really is no substitute for the DC-3 on the market today.

-Robert

Yea but the ones that come close (cirrus, columbia, cessna 400) all cost 800k new.   Mooney could refurb and 0 time and sell for half the cost.

[Austintatious]

6 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

A G1000 suite is closer to 100k than 30k.

Otherwise, I like idea and would pick G3X + GFC500 or Dynon HDX suite as neither of those are locked into the plane like current G1000 systems.

I think only the factory could do a program like this and fetch the 300k-ish sales prices, just for the possible illusion of legitimacy selling a premium refurb at a premium price. If anyone else did a full makeover of a plane, I doubt they could fetch the premium price.

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Ohh wow... I msut be thinking of something else...  Any modern package would probably do. 

[Austintatious]

19 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

Of that list, unfortunately something electric is what makes the most sense, and even so, isn't very encouraging.

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Aint gonna happen.

[KSMooniac]

Aint gonna happen.

Well, the M10 never had a "line" as it was a failure long before it got to production.

Mooney lost the turboprop mojo with the TBM line, so they have nothing to offer there. Today, it is a crowded market with two successful, entrenched manufacturers (TBM, Pilatus) and two new ones (Epic, Textron Denali on the way) so only a fool would enter that space now. And it remains to be seen if Textron is that fool.

The J/K tooling was destroyed, so they can't offer new production kits easily without building new tools.

So as I concluded, from your list of possibilities the only one that doesn't seem like a bad idea is moving towards electric propulsion. To most of us, it sounds ridiculous. I was of the same opinion until a couple of years ago. There has been around 1.5 Billion invested in this arena so far, and there are over 150 eVTOL developments going right now, including major established companies like Bell, Boeing, and Airbus. It's coming. Pipistrel and Bye have electric planes flying right now. They can't replace a Mooney for XC trips today, but they might soon. Mooney obviously doesn't have money to fund real advanced research in this arena, but if they had succeeded in spinning up a composite M10 production line, they could've had a LOT to offer some entity with a good design a way to get a production vehicle into the market... But that ship has sailed.

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