Scottsdale Comanche crash.

[EricJ]

This incident has been mentioned in a few other threads, but this video release is new.   The airplane appears in the top right at about 31 seconds in.

http://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizona-news/surveillance-video-showing-deadly-scottsdale-plane-crash-released

http://www.kathrynsreport.com/2018/04/piper-pa-24-comanche-n9456p-fatal.html

Six people and fuel and bags in a Comanche 260 at night with a student pilot flying and CFI/ATP in the right seat.

Very sad.   This happened just a couple miles from my house. 

[ragedracer1977]

I’ve had that video for a couple weeks.  Had to swear not to post it.  Knowing some other details (such as weights and seating locations of passengers, estimated fuel on board, etc) I remain unconvinced that they were overweight much, if at all.  KSDL and where they were, I think they might have had a turbo or other engine failure and tried to turn to come back.

[jetdriven]

This thread goes for 25 pages on BT. And it’s very hard to believe the airplane wasn’t seriously overweight. 

[EricJ]

We ran some W&B examples on an app that had six-seat Comanche 260 parameters and had a hard time getting the CG close to the envelope even if there wasn't enough fuel or passenger weight to put it over gross.   The witness takeoff description and the conversation with the tower suggests that problems started early and it wasn't an engine failure at least in the early stages of the flight.   Clearly a failure could have aggravated the situation and there's no way to know what actually happened.   

 

[ragedracer1977]

39 minutes ago, EricJ said:

We ran some W&B examples on an app that had six-seat Comanche 260 parameters and had a hard time getting the CG close to the envelope even if there wasn't enough fuel or passenger weight to put it over gross.   The witness takeoff description and the conversation with the tower suggests that problems started early and it wasn't an engine failure at least in the early stages of the flight.   Clearly a failure could have aggravated the situation and there's no way to know what actually happened.   

 

I have the actual weights of the passengers and seating locations.  I know about how much fuel was on board.  What I don’t know is the loading envelope.  One of the investigators on scene owns a 6 seat Comanche and if it was his plane, it would have been under gross and within the envelope.  What he didn’t know (to be determined by the NTSB) was whether or not this was really a 6 seat Comanche. If someone just added the seats, it was almost assuredly out of balance.  6 seaters from the factory had to extend the prop out front quite a bit.

[jetdriven]

The airplane clearly couldn’t handle the load. The witnesses and the video show that. Plus the tower controller even asked if they’re doing alright.  This all points to an overloaded airplane.  The ntsb will figure this out. 

[gsxrpilot]

3 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

I have the actual weights of the passengers and seating locations.  I know about how much fuel was on board.  What I don’t know is the loading envelope.  One of the investigators on scene owns a 6 seat Comanche and if it was his plane, it would have been under gross and within the envelope.  What he didn’t know (to be determined by the NTSB) was whether or not this was really a 6 seat Comanche. If someone just added the seats, it was almost assuredly out of balance.  6 seaters from the factory had to extend the prop out front quite a bit.

I looked it up by serial number and it was in the range of numbers that came with 6 seats from the factory.

[ragedracer1977]

48 minutes ago, jetdriven said:

This thread goes for 25 pages on BT. And it’s very hard to believe the airplane wasn’t seriously overweight. 

How so? 1300lb useful give or take.  Roughly 850lbs of people.  At most, 360lbs of fuel.  That’s 1210lbs.  Little to no baggage...

[ragedracer1977]

43 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Reminds me of the Mooney that crashed on takeoff with five big-uns aboard a few years ago, including one in the baggage compartment.  

 

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t it turn out that the weight and balance had nothing to do with the crash of that Mooney?

[gsxrpilot]

Actually 27 pages... and I read them. I'm with @ragedracer1977 and don't believe they were necessarily over weight or out of CG. Over on BT there are a few posts from people who actually own 6 seat Comanche's and they don't think they were over weight or out of CG either. 

I'll bet that either they had a mechanical problem or more likely it's just poor technique. I'll bet the Student in the left seat was flying and in the dark it got away from him before the CFI in the right seat could fix it.

All just speculation of course. I used to live across the street from that runway. And taking off on runway 3 you'd want to be on your numbers for rising terrain.

[Jerry 5TJ]

Damn, yet another fatal GA accident with so many risk factors piled up against the flight  

Let’s see: A student and CFI attempted a 250 mile night VFR cross country flight at high density altitude over very dark mountain terrain (there was no moon)  near gross weight and possibly aft of CG in a recently acquired plane and carrying four naive passengers. The PIC had made his first flight in the plane the day of the accident.  No flight plan was filed.  

They never got to the enroute risks: They had difficulty just lifting off halfway down the 8,200’ runway and then crashed close to the airport. 

Focusing on whether they were over gross weight ignores the point that they took many significant risks on their final flight.  

[Piloto]

The Comanche looks like it was turning to return back to the field. But the weight was too much for the bank angle to sustain lift. The pilot was probably looking outside but not realizing he was loosing altitude due to night conditions and not looking at the altimeter. RIP

José

[ragedracer1977]

25 minutes ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

Damn, yet another fatal GA accident with so many risk factors piled up against the flight  

Let’s see: A student and CFI attempted a 250 mile night VFR cross country flight at high density altitude over very dark mountain terrain (there was no moon)  near gross weight and possibly aft of CG in a recently acquired plane and carrying four naive passengers. The PIC had made his first flight in the plane the day of the accident.  No flight plan was filed.  

They never got to the enroute risks: They had difficulty just lifting off halfway down the 8,200’ runway and then crashed close to the airport. 

Focusing on whether they were over gross weight ignores the point that they took many significant risks on their final flight.  

Yup.  It’s almost never one thing.  Someone once told me it’s the “Swiss cheese effect”.  Stack up 5 slices of Swiss cheese and chances are you won’t be able to see all the way through because the holes won’t line up.  But stack it just right... a hole all the way through.

[Guest]

By it’s serial number it was a 260C, the long nose model with “six” seats.  Seats 5&6 are in what would normally be the baggage compartment.  It is supposed to have the second highest useful load (supposed to be around 1400) of all Comanche models, only the 400 model does better.  

Clarence 

Edited May 4, 2018 by M20Doc

[mike_elliott]

A gent from the Comanche group approached me to set up something similar to the Mooney Summit's Bill Gilliland foundation to help Downed Comanche pilots. I have encouraged Zach to do this, and asked Clarence to join in Zach's efforts. We at the Mooney Summit will help other Mark groups do something similar any way we can.

Clarence, thank you once again for your support of the Mooney Summit. It is always a pleasure to see you, Stewie et al at SNF

 

[MyNameIsNobody]

Horrific video.  Flying in a single engine plane at night in mountainous terrain is not for me.  I too hope the passengers understood the risk they were undertaking beyond a “normal” flight.

[flyboy0681]

4 minutes ago, MyNameIsNobody said:

 I too hope the passengers understood the risk they were undertaking beyond a “normal” flight.

Kind of like that Mooney crash a year or two ago where five people were piled inside. Did the passengers know just how dangerous a situation that was? Probably not, but they do now.

[MyNameIsNobody]

I had literally gone from viewing a Mooney pilot that lost an engine at 500’ (safety institute video) and made the impossible turn.  He had a lot going for him.  4000+ hours.  Day VFR.  Home Airport.  Single pilot mission.  His Plane.

He still forgot flaps.  Said it was the only time he landed the plane sans flaps.

Those poor souls didn’t have the domino’s stacked in their favor.

[DanM20C]

14 hours ago, ragedracer1977 said:

If I’m not mistaken, didn’t it turn out that the weight and balance had nothing to do with the crash of that Mooney?

A 1/2 tea spoon of water was found in the carburetor bowl.  But the biggest contributing factor was the weight and CG.  The NTSB concluded the plane was 290lbs over gross.  The report didn't list any CG calculations but my calculations put the CG 2-3" out of the aft limit.

Cheers,

Dan

 

[Marcopolo]

24 minutes ago, DanM20C said:

The NTSB concluded the plane was 290lbs over gross.  The report didn't list any CG calculations but my calculations put the CG 2-3" out of the aft limit.

"In my opinion" 290lbs over gross will not bring a Mooney down (high DA not withstanding), but 290lbs over gross and outside of the aft CG window..... all bets are off!

 

Ron

[gsxrpilot]

I find with me in the front seat, it's just about impossible to create an aft CG situation in a Mooney. 

Converting a 252 to an Encore involves 10 hp and better brakes... that equals an additional 300 lbs. gross weight. I've heard it said that 252's fly all the time at Encore W&B without any issues. 

That Mooney loaded with 5 adults, one in the baggage space couldn't have been out of CG aft. Did you see the size of the boys in the front seat?

[HXG]

Aircraft Weight & CG  were likely significant contributory factors to the accident whether overweight or at max weight. It certainly reduced the safety margin if not the primary cause. If I had any say, I wouldn’t let anyone I know near that flight as a 6th adult or child. An ATP/ CFI pilot (I believe)  should have known better than to place 4 innocent adults at risk with a student pilot and a heavy airplane at night. 

[Jerry 5TJ]

If I were there in his place, 28 years young and hoping to impress my 4 cute passengers, well, I might have suspended or reduced my caution. 

Pressure to complete the flight was yet another of the risk factors he accepted, probably unconsciously. 

[gsxrpilot]

I'm sure there are lots of "contributing" factors in this very unfortunate accident. But I'll wager a tank of gas that the plane was not over weight and was within the CG.

[MyNameIsNobody]

In the video shown there is a clear view of the ground and he stalled and dropped like a brick to a fiery end killing four innocent passengers.  FAIL.  END of story.