planning VFR x-country flight in this crazy summer weather

[dominikos]

Folks, happy to hear feedback / criticism on this one. 

I’m planning a VFR flight from 6R3 (TX) to KHLG (OH) next week. Planning to fly on 7/22 (Thu) and return on 7/26 (following Monday). I have been watching weather for weeks. This summer is just purely insane, I don’t think we had a good two/three days in TX without overcast and thunderstorms. In sixteen years of living in Houston, I don’t remember that type of summer. 

As insurance ticket, I got a flight on United booked. Taking my daughter for the first of her college tours - this one is the furthest so trying to get it done first. I’m still working on IFR. If I had it, I would feel much better about this flight, but I don’t have it yet. Long term forecasts seems to be consistently bad for the last few weeks and next week seems to be following the same pattern. 

What would you guys do in my situation? Should I let it go and fly commercial? At what point would you call it quits? I have been working with Foreflight’s long term forecast which historically seems to be quite accurate. Option to fly 900 miles in MVFR around thunderstorms does not seem to be much fun.

This would be my first long x-country, all previous flights were below 300 NM.

[cliffy]

Try looking at windy.com about 5 or so days out  Windy gives pretty good info on what might happen   Easy to learn how to manipulate the controls

[N201MKTurbo]

It is kind of early to be making any weather decisions. It is kind of tough to make any weather go/no go decisions more than a few days out. You have your back up flight already reserved, so don’t worry about it until the day before your flight. 

[Eight8Victor]

I sure am glad I booked Southwest two weeks ago. You know the weather is bad when your flight from Austin to Orlando includes views of the Atlantic ocean.  
 

On another note, you might want to prepare your daughter for the hate, lies and manipulation that she will experience in the university environment. We just went through this with our daughter. Indoctrination is very real. 

[Davidv]

I wouldn’t stress too much about not being IFR.  In the summer convective season you really don’t want to be in the clouds anyway.  It’s all about staying VFR as much as possible so you can see an avoid towering cumulus.  For instance, I’m going to fly from NJ to FL later today and may not file but just go flight following at 16.5.  Many reasons for this and while I’d normally go IFR on a long cross country I want total flexibility to update my route based on cell activity.  
 

I assume you use ForeFlight?  Look at every one of their weather products starting 3-4 days prior to the flight.  I find their cloud top forecasts (CONUS cloud) to be very helpful in giving me a general idea of conditions along my route of flight.  The good news is that you have a ton of flexibility on a route going from TX to OH. Unlike FL to TX for example where a front can close off the entire peninsula, you can pretty much deviate as much as you want on your route unless it’s a massive system.

It sounds like you’re on the right path, just know that things will always change (even while you’re in the air) and be prepared to adjust accordingly.
 

[GeeBee]

I've done across the continent trips in the summer in VFR only airplanes. My last was SEA to ATL in a SuperCub in August. The advice given above is sound. Leave at sunrise, don't plan on flying much past 1300LT. Even if you had an IFR rating, it don't work in convective weather without radar. Onboard weather is a must. Use it strategically, not tactically, remember the data can be up to 20 minutes old. I find the Hotels.com app really handy on such trips. You can find something pretty fast when you get shut down unexpectedly and their rewards program is better than any other chain's program. Give yourself some extra days, remind your daughter it is not the destination but to have fun getting there. As the old saying goes, "Have time to spare? Go by air!"

That all said, the weather really sucks right now. A lot of moisture coming up from the gulf. I use a variety of sources as mentioned above for long range (greater than 72 hours) "looks in the future". For a "big picture" look at destinations I like the 10 day forecast on WeatherUnderground.com. As mentioned windy.com does a good job at refining that look. If it looks like a total bust fine, take the big tube, just remember anything beyond 72 hours is really quite a guess.

[steingar]

For summer travel I usually want a two-day travel window. Most trips that works out just fine, if you haven't the weather you want on go day you'll get the day before or the day after.  Says me if you want to do that trip VFR either be ready for lots of delays or fly United.  Just don't bring your guitar.

 

[PMcClure]

My concern would be pressure on yourself to complete the mission. In my experience, a VFR XC is easily doable most days. But some days, it's just better to stay home. An instrument rating increases your chances of a timely arrival. But there are days private single engine pilots with an instrument rating should stay home as well. I would discuss it with my daughter and let her know the changes of making the stops when you want to are 50-80% and see if you are willing and able to make alternate plans. If everyone is on board with that indwelling to accept the consequences of a canceled leg or 24 hour delay, then OK. But if you have to be a certain place on a certain day, then go commercial. 

[PMcClure]

Just now, PMcClure said:

My concern would be pressure on yourself to complete the mission. In my experience, a VFR XC is easily doable most days. But some days, it's just better to stay home. An instrument rating increases your chances of a timely arrival. But there are days private single engine pilots with an instrument rating should stay home as well. I would discuss it with my daughter and let her know the changes of making the stops when you want to are 50-80% and see if you are willing and able to make alternate plans. If everyone is on board with that indwelling to accept the consequences of a canceled leg or 24 hour delay, then OK. But if you have to be a certain place on a certain day, then go commercial. 

Oooh - one more comment and I get to 1000

 

[PeteMc]

I'm on the same page as the others.  Unless you see a High Pressure system over your course and you're sure you can do it VFR in a day, go with the flow....   I'd leave a day OR TWO early in case you do get stuck someplace. Same with the return, don't *assume* you'll get back as planned.  (Can you work remotely, if so, who cares when you leave.) 

When we do X-US flights IFR, we still always assume we could be sitting someplace waiting for a line to pass.  And often in the afternoon, even early afternoon, that just messes up the schedule that it's not worth continuing that day.  This may not apply to this flight of yours, but we often pick someplace of interest to either side of our route.  If we see something ahead of us that we are not going to go through and can't easily go around, we'll divert to one of those places.  If it turns out we're stopping for the day, we'll at least be someplace with restaurants and potential things to do. 

And another trick to keep in mind.  If you see a larger chuck of Wx headed your way and it's clear behind it.  Leave the afternoon before and get as close to the line as you can (including a big safety buffer).  Stay the night in a Motel 8-ish place and then when the Wx passes the next morning, continue on.

 

[dzeleski]

I fly VFR XCs weekly all year round. Most times that a storm is rolling though and its a VFR day, between FIS-B weather and your eyes its pretty easy to navigate. Remember though, ALL weather products are delayed by at least 20min and sometimes close to an hour to real time.

What you need to get a gauge for is when things are degrading too much to go VFR. The best way ive found to determine that is start studying for your IR (ironically). Once I started I got a better feel for worse weather then I was comfortable with and started to understand how things actually tend to work weather wise.

If you 100% absolutely need to be there, doing it with just a PPL will be difficult. Consider commercial at that point.

Trying to plan it this far out is basically impossible. I pretty much make a go no go decision 24 hours in advance at most this time of year. Youll need to be more flexible on your days and times to make it work... unless you just get lucky which does happen.

 

[DXB]

7 hours ago, dominikos said:

Folks, happy to hear feedback / criticism on this one. 

I’m planning a VFR flight from 6R3 (TX) to KHLG (OH) next week. Planning to fly on 7/22 (Thu) and return on 7/26 (following Monday). I have been watching weather for weeks. This summer is just purely insane, I don’t think we had a good two/three days in TX without overcast and thunderstorms. In sixteen years of living in Houston, I don’t remember that type of summer. 

As insurance ticket, I got a flight on United booked. Taking my daughter for the first of her college tours - this one is the furthest so trying to get it done first. I’m still working on IFR. If I had it, I would feel much better about this flight, but I don’t have it yet. Long term forecasts seems to be consistently bad for the last few weeks and next week seems to be following the same pattern. 

What would you guys do in my situation? Should I let it go and fly commercial? At what point would you call it quits? I have been working with Foreflight’s long term forecast which historically seems to be quite accurate. Option to fly 900 miles in MVFR around thunderstorms does not seem to be much fun.

This would be my first long x-country, all previous flights were below 300 NM.

I remember exactly where you are now in your progression and also seeking help on Mooneyspace before my first long trip as a pretty green VFR only pilot.  I was going from Philadelphia to St. Louis in the summer of 2014 by myself. I learned a ton, and it was doable, albeit slow and exhausting. BTW, it's still way too early to check weather.  You might get lucky with a giant high pressure system over the middle of the country on 7/22, but you would still need similar luck twice to return efficiently on 7/26. What you propose is valuable experience to accumulate but also an impractical and unreliable means of transportation. It would be fun adventure without time constraints on either end, but with a passenger and a deadline, I probably would pass. After 3 years of taking trips like this VFR, it was no fun for me any more, and it was time to grind through the instrument rating. 

After the rating, the plane becomes a serious traveling machine for missions like yours - in most cases, weather delays in the summer last hours, not days. Pop up thunderstorms can usually be circumnavigated, though sometimes you need to put it on the ground for a few hours to let pass an impenetrable line associated with a front.  Going IFR still takes weather judgement and active decision making, but overall it's much less work than long cross countries VFR.  And if you need to stay out of the clouds entirely, then often there's not a practical route to get there in a reasonable time frame.

[cwaters]

I did a VFR XC a few days ago from Ga to base in WV (more Northern Va) the trip was supposed to be 420nm one way and flight aware (if you trust it) says it was 524mi. The track did include alot of deviation East/West and vertical to go over and below clouds as we encountered them. We got back to base VFR but it was a long day as we got to the airport ~0800 and didn't get to take off until 1130. The weather was changing rapidly as a front was about to blow through SC and NC so we had multiple alternatives planned out. halfway through the flight our Stratus died and with it our on-board weather (ADSB-in) so we ended up asking ATC for some advice when we would need to deviate, they would talk through what they were seeing and we could get a picture of the next ~50nm. We had originally planned to fly out the day before but weather shut that down and honestly holding another day likely would have been the better call. This trip is what was my last straw/kick in the pants for getting my IR so I'm working through my written study material no and hopefully can be done with the rating by X-Mas 

Only question I have is: Does your daughter like to fly with you or is this just a means to an end for her and she might not enjoy 7-8 hrs of flying and potentially turbulent air and all the "fun" we pilots embrace with stopping for weather and such. One side of the coin is an experience you two get to build and remember no mater how the trip goes and the other side is her frustrated because you had to stop and saying we should have gone commercial like 'normal' people. 

To echo what most have already said here, give yourself a few days margin and maybe plan something to do a the destination if you get there early because all the weather gods smiled on you (and if that happens tell me what you bribed them with) Planning a ~400-450nm trip is annoying enough weather wise because so much can change from departure to destination so I don't envy you planning a 900+nm trip so having never actually done it I would likely attack it this way (Those with more experience might correct my approach here): 

- break into desired legs and flight plan each leg independently, set up alternate airports/hotels every ~75nm

- make separate go/no-go for each leg depending on 1-2 day forecast for that leg, if one leg is a no-go then figure out if going around it makes sense and if yes start over and evaluate if turning a 900nm trip into a 1000+ trip is worth it to you and daughter 

- leave with 2 day margin 

[dominikos]

Thank you for pointers and sharing. I like the idea of leaving, if needed, a day earlier and staying at a hotel en route. It is summer, so we have some time. If needed, her Friday college tour can be rescheduled to take place on Monday and I can work remotely.

My daughter flies well, she actually mostly sleeps - believe it or not, she finds GA flying relaxing and actually quite boring. I guess that’s a beauty of limited internet coverage that does not keep her awake And we didn’t hit any turbulence in the past

For my planning, I use Foreflight and long term prognosis. What I found very accurate and helpful is the new WX feature - 10 day long term forecast with aviation relevant aspects - visibility, cloud coverage, etc. Very helpful to build long term perspective. What does worry me is that the current 10 day forecast resembles what I have seen for the last three weeks which means that quite likely next week will be similar to this one and the previous one.

For flight, I use Sentry + Foreflight to work around weather. Is Sirius XM weather much better?

[dominikos]

6 hours ago, Eight8Victor said:

I sure am glad I booked Southwest two weeks ago. You know the weather is bad when your flight from Austin to Orlando includes views of the Atlantic ocean.  
 

On another note, you might want to prepare your daughter for the hate, lies and manipulation that she will experience in the university environment. We just went through this with our daughter. Indoctrination is very real. 

That’s why I’m taking college visits so seriously (okay, also an excuse to fly) and why we are starting 900 NM away from home in Stubenville. Although, I expect we will end up closer home as weather will most likely play into her decision 

[Davidv]

17 minutes ago, dominikos said:

Thank you for pointers and sharing. I like the idea of leaving, if needed, a day earlier and staying at a hotel en route. It is summer, so we have some time. If needed, her Friday college tour can be rescheduled to take place on Monday and I can work remotely.

My daughter flies well, she actually mostly sleeps - believe it or not, she finds GA flying relaxing and actually quite boring. I guess that’s a beauty of limited internet coverage that does not keep her awake And we didn’t hit any turbulence in the past

For my planning, I use Foreflight and long term prognosis. What I found very accurate and helpful is the new WX feature - 10 day long term forecast with aviation relevant aspects - visibility, cloud coverage, etc. Very helpful to build long term perspective. What does worry me is that the current 10 day forecast resembles what I have seen for the last three weeks which means that quite likely next week will be similar to this one and the previous one.

For flight, I use Sentry + Foreflight to work around weather. Is Sirius XM weather much better?

I never had XM until I got my new panel but now I get a ton of value out of it on long cross countries.  The ability to see radar, METARS, TAFs, along my entire route from the time I turn on the master is well worth the subscription.  Their winds aloft data is also much better and more detailed.  I believe the standard NEXRAD is somewhat similar in both products and I'm not sure about the lag but I think it's marginally shorter than ADS-B.  Can't be used tactically, but it's nice to see a line of clouds/storm in the distance and know roughly how long it extends (for example).  While it's not absolutely necessary, any additional information I can get up there in the absence of onboard radar is helpful.

[Vance Harral]

3 hours ago, dzeleski said:

I pretty much make a go no go decision 24 hours in advance at most this time of year.

This is the best advice in the thread, and I'd add that it's true any time of year, not just in the summer.  No matter how many weather sites, Foreflight features, etc. you find that promise "5 day" or "10 day" forecasts, none of them can help you make a strategic go/no-go decision a week in advance.  Any weather forecast more than a couple of days in the future is for entertainment purposes only.

I spent years agonizing over this sort of stuff, but I've stopped.  My dispatch rate is just as good, and I sleep better at night, by simply ignoring weather planning until 24-48 hours before intended departure.  This means I sometimes have to move departure dates, cancel trips, or go via last-minute expensive airline tickets.  But that was true when I used to agonize over the weather days in advance, too.  Such is the nature of GA travel.  The sooner you accept that reality, the more you can actually enjoy it.

[N201MKTurbo]

I always look at the forecast trends. As you get closer to your trip, is the forecast getting better or worse. If it is getting better I’m more likely to make the trip then if it is getting worse.

[donkaye]

There are certainly exceptions to what I'm about to say, but except for frontal activity, which can be seen or fairly well predicted several days in advance, flying early in the morning (off the ground by 6:00) and being done flying by 11:00-12:00 most times provide a favorable outcome to a flying day.  Oftentimes looking at the long term graphical forecast would be discouraging because it seems to forecast moisture content as occuring all the time.  In reality the mornings many times are clear and the afternoons look like the predictions.  

The comfort of flying now is provided by the weather products that are now available in the cockpit, the ASOS and AWOS available at most airports around the country useful for diversion, and ATC's watchful eye with weather inputs.  For me the Stormscope, being real time, complements XM and ADS-B weather.  I wouldn't go on an extended cross country without both of them.  Regarding ADS-B weather vs XM, from experience, there is no comparison.  Recently I was assisting a student I had just transitioned to his just purchased Encore.  He wanted me to accompany him on the trip home to Greeley, Colorado.  We started from San Jose, California. He had built in ADS-B but no XM.  I had the Aera 760 and GDL 52 with both ADS-B and XM weather.  Over much of the route (Nevada and Wyoming) we got no ADSB overage, but complete XM coverage.  That was the first time I saw the disadvantages of ADS-B weather up close. We arrived at 12:15, and by 3:00 looking back to where we had come from there were monstrous TS leading into Greeley.  Had we not left when we did, we would not have been able to get into Greeley that day.  Even my flight back that night was delayed by the weather.

Right after I got my instrument rating, on almost every questionable weather flight I would call a more experienced pilot and discuss the weather.  I learned a lot.  Gradually, as I flew more and more long cross country flights, I got to understand the weather much better, until the go/no go decisions became obvious.  Books such as Severe Weather Flying by Dennis Newton, and Weather Flying by Robert Buck were invaluable resources. You don't have to be a meteorologist to fly cross country.  If the weather is such that you do, the decision is really easy--don't go.

The Instrument Rating is a "must have" rating if you want much comfortable enjoyment in your GA flying, but not from what you might expect.  A 3,000 pound airplane is no match for Mother Nature when the weather turns nasty or even in straform clouds without TKS when near the freezing level.  This can happen even in the summertime.  It's great for traversing a marine layer, but going IMC around anything convective is a recipe for disaster.  I think the lessons gained from the rating are more about how to fly precisely, how to use ATC effectively, understanding the weather, and when not to fly in the clouds.

So, as mentioned in other posts, its good to take a look at the weather forecasts a week out, but not worry about it.  Get serious about planning a couple of days out and call an experienced friend or Flight Service for detailed help if you feel uncomfortable about any aspect of your proposed flight.  Have a backup plan for "must do" trips.  

On the day of the trip, if you have ANY misgivings about any aspect of it, use the backup and never look back.

[Skates97]

54 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I always look at the forecast trends. As you get closer to your trip, is the forecast getting better or worse. If it is getting better I’m more likely to make the trip then if it is getting worse.

Me too, I start looking at them 7-10 days out and see which way they are trending.

[dzeleski]

2 hours ago, Vance Harral said:

This is the best advice in the thread, and I'd add that it's true any time of year, not just in the summer.  No matter how many weather sites, Foreflight features, etc. you find that promise "5 day" or "10 day" forecasts, none of them can help you make a strategic go/no-go decision a week in advance.  Any weather forecast more than a couple of days in the future is for entertainment purposes only.

I spent years agonizing over this sort of stuff, but I've stopped.  My dispatch rate is just as good, and I sleep better at night, by simply ignoring weather planning until 24-48 hours before intended departure.  This means I sometimes have to move departure dates, cancel trips, or go via last-minute expensive airline tickets.  But that was true when I used to agonize over the weather days in advance, too.  Such is the nature of GA travel.  The sooner you accept that reality, the more you can actually enjoy it.

Ive found windys euro model to be insanely accurate in the winter in the NE, up to a few days I can be pretty certain its going to be good or not. In the summer nothing seems to get close to accurate until im 48-24 hours out.

But yeah as you said without an IR just go with the flow, if you can go awesome if not drive, commercial, or ride a bike around town.

[201er]

Being instrument rated, I am much more capable and comfortable flying VFR to the max. Having an IFR out and the additional knowledge/capability really helps. I didn’t use the full flexibility of VFR until I gained the ability/understanding to go IFR. I don’t recommend non instrument pilots to go to the limits of VFR either.

[JWJR]

If it was just you going I would say go ahead and fly this trip and get going very early each am assuming no major weather systems on the route. However I would not put my daughter through what may well turn out to be a whole lot of aggravation and delays if you have a hard schedule to meet. My advice is take the airlines and continue your ifr training. If your going to launch on a long VFR x/country with limited experience you should go solo or with a pilot with more experience. If you do go and have to put down for weather delays make the most of it wherever you stop. Museums,local points of interest and sights to see could make for nice memories with your daughter. Enjoy your trip and be safe!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Will.iam]

Someone on here before suggested weatherspork app and for a VFR pilot it’s amazing at the profile view showing cloud bases at points along your path. I highly recommend it for those that want to know where the clouds are and what altitude up to 3 days out hour by hour. You get 14 day trial before it’s $5/month. And while i think that is steep for flying once a quarter on a trip further than the local area. It sure does help on those extended lomg range trips. 

[Will.iam]

Here is your direct line route right now and then on a couple of different days and n the future. Landscape is better view but doesn’t show the precip like portrait view does. On an ipad its even better at all the info it presents to you. There is also grid mode to show you where vfr latterly will be compared to your route. I have never seen an app that shows so much different ways to analyze the wx. Kudos to the pilot that suggested it on here before.