Factory Closed Down?

[Andy95W]

The problem seems to be, as always, that there is only demand for 5-10 airplanes a year.  But that isn't enough to sustain a full-up factory.

Back in the 90s, Mooney made sub-assemblies for other manufacturers like Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop, etc.  Maybe have enough workers to produce those, and during downtimes build a few airplanes a year.  

And I've always liked the idea of a refurbishment program for the older M20J/Ks.  Imagine having a 1979 M20K 231 and drop it off at the factory.  4-6 months later, you pick up your 1979 M20K Encore with an SB engine, higher gross weight, and whatever avionics you want.

[hammdo]

Mooney refab service, parts manufacture, and custom builder. It would be nice to see an ‘experimental’ kit...

 

a possible approach...

-Don

[cliffy]

Maybe I/we need to rethink the market

For 2018 and 2019 four S/E  piston airplanes lead the market in numbers produced- SR22 (131) SR22T (200) Archer (182) and 172 (126) 2019 numbers      http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/General-Aviation.html

New from say $400K to $750K each depending on which one. It seems there is a market out there  One could argue that the Archer and 172 are dinosaur designs compared to the plastic flyer. 382 dino airframes sold with no chutes installed. OK there is a market. Can that portion be penetrated?   Could a factory survive on 75 ship sets a year? That's only 12% of the top 4 market. 

As a general condenses the marketing sucked as noted in many postings. The question is Why? Could they not see it? No vision? Just didn't care? Why did it suck? 

A study should be made of the marketing styles of the top 4 and then meld a plan for a new program. 

We all know the airplane is a good one, but can it make any money even at 75 ships a year? Or is the Cost to Produce too far gone to make money at a comparable pricing to the top 4?

[carusoam]

Communication is everything...

So looking forward to the news.

Stay positive!

-a-

[Boilermonkey]

They should look at what Diamond is doing and then do it even better.  Diamond is coming out with some really excellent products at a better value than the competition.  They even have a refurb program, although I think it is only for the twins.

 

With Mooney having such a long established brand and existing fleet, under the right management they could really change the GA market.

[eman1200]

twin mooney!!!

[alextstone]

twin mooney!!!

For 2 million dollars

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[eman1200]

1 minute ago, alextstone said:

For 2 million dollars

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

unfortunately you'd probably be right.  instead of competing with with a seneca or baron at around a mill, mooney would double the price and not sell any.  but I'd still like to see one.

[donshapansky]

It's called Aerostar!

[Parker_Woodruff]

34 minutes ago, donshapansky said:

It's called Aerostar!

How's yours doing these days?  Haven't seen you in awhile!

[EricJ]

This seems pretty close to what people have been asking for here.   180+kt cruise on 9 gph with a 300hp diesel engine.

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2020/june/25/diamond-announces-da50-rg

Edit:   I guess I'm late to the party as there's already a whole thread on this.

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by EricJ

[donshapansky]

Hey Parker, It has been a while, I sold the business in 2018 and have been travelling a lot doing cruises, motorhome trips and building a street rod. The Aerostar is now in Canadian registry based in Vancouver, BC area.

[carusoam]

Way to go Don!
 

https://www.factoryfive.com/whats-new/factory-five-customer-don-s-featured-ford-performance/

 

There are a few ‘experimental’ car builders on MS...

I would love to build a GTM... (Corvette Parts in place of Ford)

Best regards,

-a-

[mike_elliott]

23 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

So what did the ancestors do, well they made St Patrick's day as the day you drank guinness, no other beer just guinness, then they expanded that across the colonies...

Perhaps this could be one of the underlying issues why some seemed so focused on cancelling our past. Our ignorant ancestors should have made every day the day you drink Guinness

 

[Blue on Top]

57 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

what they need to do, is not try to penetrate an existing market, but make that market bigger and take THAT share of the market.

@Hyett6420  BAM!!! Nail on the head!  Who wants a small percentage of a very, very small market?  100 airplanes a year is not survivable.  Cirrus created their own small, niche market.

Spend some time on social media and look at what people are flying, why they are flying and what their missions are.  Design, build and produce a product that people want.   

[Hank]

51 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

@Hyett6420  BAM!!! Nail on the head!  Who wants a small percentage of a very, very small market?  100 airplanes a year is not survivable.  Cirrus created their own small, niche market.

Spend some time on social media and look at what people are flying, why they are flying and what their missions are.  Design, build and produce a product that people want.   

Cirrus does well among people who have enough money to fly but aren't, and theybsell them the lifestyle. Otherwise, you're still trying to take a share of a small market . . . 

[M016576]

53 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

@Hyett6420  BAM!!! Nail on the head!  Who wants a small percentage of a very, very small market?  100 airplanes a year is not survivable.  Cirrus created their own small, niche market.

Spend some time on social media and look at what people are flying, why they are flying and what their missions are.  Design, build and produce a product that people want.   

That's so true.... the question is, has that niche market already been filled by the other vendors... is there room for another?  Does a market even exist for such aircraft anymore?

 

Gosh, I hope the answer is an emphatic "YES!" but watching the decline of GA over the years as the costs and barriers to entry increase almost parabolically makes me think... maybe not.

[Blue on Top]

2 minutes ago, M016576 said:

That's so true.... the question is, has that niche market already been filled by the other vendors... is there room for another?  Does a market even exist for such aircraft anymore?

That niche market is filled … by many (Cirrus, Cessna TTx, etc.).  There is not room for another (or maybe even that one).  Wrong aircraft.  Quit building Lamborghinis!  There's no money there.  The automotive portion of Honda doesn't survive on the $BB they spend in motorsports (yes, literally, annually).  They profit greatly on building millions of Civics, Accords, CR-Vs, Pilots, etc.. 

Many, many people want the "J" brought back, which is what the M10"J" was originally envisioned to be, ... but it wasn't.  It was more of an Acclaim "J".  In fact more avionics, leather, comfort, engine, structure, etc. than an Acclaim.  That's not what people are asking for, and that is not what the "J" was originally.  Like it's predecessors (Cs, Es, Fs and Gs that people still love today), the "J" was a simple, take me from A to B, go fast efficiently machine.  A sporty Accord and not a Lamborghini.  There's a market for a modern "J".

[aviatoreb]

I was reading my June AOPA magazine last night - the glossy one that comes in the mail, an article about a guy who does pre-buys for used experimental aircraft.

One statistic really stood out to me in that article is extremely relevant here: There are about as many experimental aircraft being completed each year as there are certified piston aircraft (twin and single) being completed.  And currently the experimental fleet is about 25% of the entire GA fleet but the first stat is more important.

Experimental is also a crowded field, and dominated by vans, and other excellent brands like lancair.

I think - again - that Mooney should re-tool the M20 from nose to tail, tip to tip, rethink the parts count and build methods, to become an experimental that is shaped just like a current M20 but in every part and screw is a new plane.  And sell them as an experimental factory assist project plane.  Then if it gains a following gradually also move to sell that also as a certified full build product.  Same shape to keep name recognition and appearance, in the same them.  It would need to compete with lancair for the performance market, but they clearly are not competing in the new Lamborghini market.

And they can keep building and selling parts for the current fleet.

Another model is they could just build parts supporting the current fleet and that's all.

Another model - they could just keep the name and start selling tooth brushes, air conditioners, and other stuff that has no relation to their current brand.

[Hank]

5 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

Another model - they could just keep the name and start selling tooth brushes, air conditioners, and other stuff that has no relation to their current brand.

Sure! We even have some dentists here who could strongly recommend the new Mooney Aircraft toothbrushes, too!

[toto]

1 hour ago, M016576 said:

That's so true.... the question is, has that niche market already been filled by the other vendors... is there room for another?  Does a market even exist for such aircraft anymore?

 

Gosh, I hope the answer is an emphatic "YES!" but watching the decline of GA over the years as the costs and barriers to entry increase almost parabolically makes me think... maybe not.

We saw something very interesting over the past ten years with the Icon A5.  It was a clean-sheet design, built for a brand-new niche.  A flying jetski -- with bare minimum avionics, limited fuel supply, room for two.  Their marketing made it into all sorts of "lifestyle" publications, and I honestly think they could have sold the hell out of them if it weren't for a very messy certification road and some very high-profile crashes.  

There is absolutely nothing you can do with a $350k Icon A5 that you can't do with a $20k-something SeaReay that you buy used from Barnstormers, but no one has ever heard of a SeaRey, and the Icon was on the front cover of everything.  (Granted, they were originally going to be $150k before demand dropped to zero and lost all economies of scale.)

Anyway, I think the Icon proves the proposition that you can still create a new niche in aviation, and it doesn't necessarily require an engineering breakthrough.  Just a clever marketing team and some patient investors.

[ArtVandelay]

That niche market is filled … by many (Cirrus, Cessna TTx, etc.).  There is not room for another (or maybe even that one).  Wrong aircraft.  Quit building Lamborghinis!  There's no money there.  The automotive portion of Honda doesn't survive on the $BB they spend in motorsports (yes, literally, annually).  They profit greatly on building millions of Civics, Accords, CR-Vs, Pilots, etc.. 
Many, many people want the "J" brought back, which is what the M10"J" was originally envisioned to be, ... but it wasn't.  It was more of an Acclaim "J".  In fact more avionics, leather, comfort, engine, structure, etc. than an Acclaim.  That's not what people are asking for, and that is not what the "J" was originally.  Like it's predecessors (Cs, Es, Fs and Gs that people still love today), the "J" was a simple, take me from A to B, go fast efficiently machine.  A sporty Accord and not a Lamborghini.  There's a market for a modern "J".

Accords are profitable because they make so many of them, Lambos can be profitable with a lower volume. Low volume, high labor rates require high prices.
There is a market for Js, but it’s being satisfied by the abundance of used Js. For $200,000 you can have a really nice forever J,K....less if go to the short bodies.

[aviatoreb]

I dream of 3d printing to the rescue.  Not the 3d printing we have quite yet but I could dream of 3d printing so universal that you just print an entire plane straight out of the printer.  In metals, or plastics, or whatever you want.  They do 3d print metals already but I don't think the products are strong in the right way.  Yet...?  I don't know what I am talking about - I am just dreaming,

Then there would no longer be aircraft producing companies.  There would be stuff companies - that would make anything under the sun.  Cars, washing machines, airplanes.  Just big warehouses full of massive 3d printers that would spit out complex builds of multi-component multi material products intricately built in one big piece.  Just add engine and avionics.

[EricJ]

1 hour ago, aviatoreb said:

One statistic really stood out to me in that article is extremely relevant here: There are about as many experimental aircraft being completed each year as there are certified piston aircraft (twin and single) being completed.  And currently the experimental fleet is about 25% of the entire GA fleet but the first stat is more important.

That outcome has been obvious for a long time.   The economic pressure in aircraft acquisition and maintenance, the entire life-cycle cost, pushes strongly in this direction.   The main resistance is that the experimental market does not serve well the casual flyer who is interested primarily in only flying, not the technology or maintenance, e.g., is allergic to hand tools.   The people who do like to be involved in their own maintenance and management of the aircraft are ripe for experimental aircraft.    A friend has a Brazov IAR-823, four-place single-engine, retractable gear, six-cyl Lycoming, aerobatic, and experimental.   It was a military trainer and is very modular and easy to maintain.   If I had known about those when I was airplane shopping I'd own one.   For personal use the experimental category is hard to beat for those suited to it.

 

 

[mike_elliott]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

Sure! We even have some dentists here who could strongly recommend the new Mooney Aircraft toothbrushes, too!

Only if they have a BK 300 or a Garmin GPS in them...  Aspen Dental is the work of the devil!