Factory Closed Down?

[Bravoman]

5 minutes ago, Ah-1 Cobra Pilot said:

You are comparing apples to oranges.  A new turbine-powered airplane will cost several million.  https://www.flyingmag.com/photo-gallery/photos/piper-meridian-m500-versus-world-comparison-specs/

My point was if I had 800K to spend it would not be on a new piston but rather a used turbine, because you can get them for that. But that’s just me. And I believe that sort of goes to the heart of why Mooney has had such a hard time trying to sell  a legacy aircraft for that price. . However, Cirrus , which isn’t legacy, seems to be doing just fine, so I guess there are enough people who want brand new and have the money to buy it. 

[AH-1 Cobra Pilot]

1 hour ago, Bravoman said:

My point was if I had 800K to spend it would not be on a new piston but rather a used turbine, because you can get them for that. But that’s just me. And I believe that sort of goes to the heart of why Mooney has had such a hard time trying to sell  a legacy aircraft for that price. . However, Cirrus , which isn’t legacy, seems to be doing just fine, so I guess there are enough people who want brand new and have the money to buy it. 

My point still stands.  It is that there are buyers of new aircraft and the price difference is huge.  Do you buy a new Mooney, or spend another million on a new turboprop with pressurization?  Personally, I find having the pressurization worth more than having the turbine.

Who buys new aircraft?  I have no idea, so I have to guess. People who want fewer maintenance issues?  People who have to have something new vs. used?  Perhaps those who buy new engines versus remanufactured or overhauled ones could be indicators.  How well do refurbished aircraft sell?  (There was lots of talk about that earlier on this forum, but not much conclusion.) 

So, who here has bought a brand new engine and why?

[Bravoman]

48 minutes ago, Ah-1 Cobra Pilot said:

My point still stands.  It is that there are buyers of new aircraft and the price difference is huge.  Do you buy a new Mooney, or spend another million on a new turboprop with pressurization?  Personally, I find having the pressurization worth more than having the turbine.

Who buys new aircraft?  I have no idea, so I have to guess. People who want fewer maintenance issues?  People who have to have something new vs. used?  Perhaps those who buy new engines versus remanufactured or overhauled ones could be indicators.  How well do refurbished aircraft sell?  (There was lots of talk about that earlier on this forum, but not much conclusion.) 

So, who here has bought a brand new engine and why?

 One thing for sure is that there is no shortage of people who can stroke checks for 700K and up for toys. I always go back to the boat example. Every marina I go to in Florida has center console fishing boats with two to four motors as far as the eye can see.  It really boggles my mind. By the time you get done with one of those, with all of the electronics that they have, they are a minimum of six to $700,000. 

[Danb]

2 hours ago, Bravoman said:

Dan maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think that you necessarily have to spend that much money maintaining a turbine. Say the hot section was recently done when you buy it. Of course we are  talking about older planes for the price to come in at 800k. A friend of mine bought a TBM 700 a couple of years ago for something along the lines of what we are talking about and I don’t think he has put anywhere near 200k  into the plane so far.

I was counting hanger insurance quite high for turbine routine maintenance and annuals, my costs actually approximate 20-30,000 per year, 8,000: annual, 4500 insurance 2500 hanger 11,000 fuel unforeseen stuff 5-10,000 that is $30,000 with no reserves built in, I have to believe a turbine is more than a Bravo, I considered 100 hours per year.

[Blue on Top]

So, accepting and getting over the fact (reality) that if one made an M20J today, it MIGHT cost 50-100K less than an "Ovation" if you watch what you're doing really, really closely.  So ...

Does anyone think that there is a market for a 400-500K airplane that has a smaller engine and less integrated avionics?

BTW, new airplane sales have never been to the $100 hamburger person.  Even the C180 is called a "Businessliner".  They were purchased to save time, a quantity that none of us can make more of.  Yes, there are some wealthy people that buy them for other than business purposes … but it is still to save time.  If grandma, grandpa and the dog can visit different grandchildren and/or vacation every weekend, the costs are justified.

@MooneyMitch  Did you give up that gorgeous airplane for the Ovation?  Beautiful paint scheme!  I have that "Flight" magazine .  The color picture is sooooo much nicer.

[MooneyMitch]

Hi Ron.

My Ovation (owned 2009-2016). Paint scheme chosen from 2008 year model.

My current D/C model (2016-?...lol ). Paint scheme chosen  from 1963 C model.

Both painted exquisitely by Tony from Artcraft, at my home airport (SMX).

[Blue on Top]

3 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

My current D/C model (2016-?...lol ). Paint scheme chosen  from 1963 C model.

Both painted exquisitely by Tony from Artcraft, at my home airport (SMX).

 

@MooneyMitch  Your D/C is gorgeous.   Artcraft does a fantastic job, too!

[RLCarter]

Maybe some of you that have been to the factory in the past few years can way in here. The general consensus that I get is Mooney needs to reduce the labor cost and get to a more automated production. My question is what is the average age of the work force? I know at 60 I can't do near as much as I could at even in my 40's. Not trying to take anything away from those that work at Mooney and experience is hard to replace, but an aged work force has to slow things down some

[chinoguym20]

I’m not sure the inability to manufacture at a reasonable labor cost, coupled with materials cost and overhead allows it to be sold (through a dealer who probably takes 10-20%) for a reasonable profit Is age related. In fact, I think they could do more with the right senior people, than some of the younger people in this day and age.  It’s more to do with the fact it is an old design, manufactured using traditional methods (maybe with the exception of some CNC machining where manual used to be used) and reliant on the skills and experience of reliable hourly workers. I’m told the workforce remaining is just a few hourly and over a dozen overhead.  Like everyone, I’m hoping to see a survival plan for Mooney, but don’t see it involving the M20 as we know and love it.  Maybe the M10 could make it (@blueontop?) or some other aircraft by acquisition?

[Danb]

I mean really look,at MooneyMitch’s plane, gorgeous if a company could replicate his plane you’d have to think the market would be huge. Great local hamburger run plane, awesome to train in to move up to high performance plane wonderful cross country plane, what’s not to love and think it would be extremely marketable, just thinking....

[MooneyMitch]

“In fact, I think they could do more with the right senior people, than some of the younger people in this day and age”

Of course, senior people are a huge asset.......younger people in this day and age you say?   Look no further than the youthful, highly intelligent, extremely enthusiastic people at JPL Pasedana, SpaceX, etc.  There’s many more of these fine young minds out there!

My opinion.    It would take a new direction to attract such at Mooney.  If you build it, they will come......In Mooneys case, if you offer the opportunity, they WILL come!

[MooneyMitch]

2 minutes ago, Danb said:

I mean really look,at MooneyMitch’s plane, gorgeous if a company could replicate his plane you’d have to think the market would be huge. Great local hamburger run plane, awesome to train in to move up to high performance plane wonderful cross country plane, what’s not to love and think it would be extremely marketable, just thinking....

To recreate the likes of the C, F, J, etc........ production cost is close to current costs to build latest Mooney airplanes.

It is painful to see articles where Piper or others, have sold new airplanes to flight schools, and to China, while our Mooney is left behind.

[pinkiedog64]

In my opinion (I know the saying about opinions), the price of the airplane isn't the problem.  An SR22/SR22T is in the same ballpark price and they are selling plenty of them.  Yes, if new Mooneys were less expensive that would help, but it isn't the main problem.  If the factory invested heavily in the things required to reduce the cost of the airplane and brought the price of the airplane down by $100,000, would that many more be sold?  My opinion is no.  If the factory labor rate is $50/hr, then to reduce the price of the airplane by $100,000 by reduction of labor cost alone, you have to take 2000 hours of labor out of the build.  Ain't gonna happen. 

If the factory invests in widgets/processes to cut time out of the production process the price of the airplane is still going to be well north of $500,000 (or $600 or $700k).  Cost of the materials and purchased parts don't change.  Don't forget the cost associated with developing and approving new process specs.  To make some of the really labor intensive tasks less labor intensive, one could think of things like (ignore feasibility): automated spar buildup, tubular structure robotically welded, replacing complex multi-piece weldments with lesser parts-count machinings (gear legs, misc bellcranks, brackets, etc).  To accomplish this would require oodles of money to be invested.  To recoup the cost associated with all of this means you need to either: sell A LOT of airplanes, or sell fewer airplanes (but still a lot) with a bigger price tag.  Either one probably isn't in the cards.

Even with the fiberglass shell there are still lots of handmade/hand-formed/labor intensive parts.  Sure, lots of it could be redesigned to yield an easier/quicker-to-build airplane, but by the time you've done all that redesign you might as well design a new airplane from scratch because the cost will be similar.  Example, at the last company I worked for we decided to stretch the fuselage of the airplane we were working on.  The stretch caused many many other things to be redesigned.  The new version of the parts may have looked similar to the old version but they were different.  The time/cost to do the redesign was not far off from the time/cost it took to do design the original version.  Similar concept here, I think.

Veronica and friends poured lots of money into the factory with lots of it going to new and faster machines and equipment.  A good effort, but look where it has ended up.  I don't know the solution is to Mooney's woes, but I know what isn't, which is spending lots of money to automate production to bring the price of the airplane down by 10% (or even 20%).  

Edited June 18, 2020 by pinkiedog64

[LANCECASPER]

This has been discussed at great length in the past but I still think Mooney's recent failure has been poor marketing.

Cirrus is a lifestyle marketing company that just happens to sell airplanes. Mooney, many of their years, has been an airplane company that hardly ever focuses their marketing correctly and doesn't sell a lifestyle or many airplanes. (They did both of those from the mid 70's to the late 90's but have lost their way since then.) I bought a new Mooney in 1996 when they had Factory Direct salespeople. They were good at what they did and Mooney wasn't giving away part of their profit margin to dealers. They had some money to spend on marketing. That was when the phrase "Your Personal Airliner" was coined for the TLS.

Here's an example of a complete marketing blunder. . . when they started back up again in 2014, that was a good thing. But they weren't ready to sell anything. You couldn't buy one if you wanted to - that was a bad thing. Then shortly after they slowly started building credibility and a handful of airplanes again, they announced the new Ultra with the extra door. They weren't even close to certifying it and were at least a year away from being able to deliver it - that was a horrible thing. Any momentum that they had after starting back up again was lost by doing that. They lost orders they already had because people wanted to wait for the new model. Their sales revenue went to zero. This was a major reason they stopped the M10 project and died a slow painful death. The day they announced the Ultra they should have been able to say, "It is certified today and we are taking orders today for a 90 day delivery!". The worst problem they would have had then is that some orders placed probably wouldn't have been available for 120 days. A temporary shortage for a highly sought after product is not a bad thing.

I do not have a Garmin panel, but one thing that I appreciate about them as a company is that when they introduce a new product they are ready to deliver it at the announcement or within a very short time after the announcement. Timing is everything!

[Danb]

Agreed Lance I had a 1977 201 in 1986-7, used  bought from Henry Weber Mooney not in the market for a plane Mooney  was doing some advertising and selling quite a bit of planes, I had a cold call from Dirk V, I told him I wasn’t looking for a plane mine was great, regardless he talked me into a demo in a new J, flew it from Kerrville to Delaware, costly figuring they weren’t selling me a plane. The last thing my wife said why we here, and I hope it’s not red. Well they cold called, flew 1200 miles in a WHITE AND RED Mooney which I bought on the spot, there’s no way they’ve done a thing like that type of marketing for I’ll bet 30 years.. don’t market properly no sales..

[chinoguym20]

@pinkiedog64 you hit the nail on the head and I agree with you. @MooneyMitch I also agree with you to a certain extent regarding the younger talent at the companies you mention.  However, those companies (like Cirrus I guess) manufacture using more modern and well tooled processes.  At Mooney, alot is dependent on the hourly worker who needs to have the more traditional and old school skills where you measure twice and cut/drill once.  Lastly, I don’t think Marketing is to blame for the repeated failures of Mooney, it’s simply that the M20 can not be manufactured for a cost low enough to allow for dealer commissions and a reasonable profit margin.  You would have to sell it for $900K + to cover costs. 

[carusoam]

Sales in the USA...

SWAT...

Sell what’s available today...  (sales training 101...)

Not what’s coming down the pipe... or available in the third quarter of an unmentioned year (thanks BK Marketing)....
 

Put it in their hands... let them use it... let them tell you how they would use it if it was theirs....
 

My favorite thing the plastic plane people did... they put a pre-production or early production SR20 in a state fair in MA... (The big E)
 

General population... sitting in an airplane... gathering feedback.... from everyone....

Airplane marketing isn’t hard... people want to tell you about their flying...

Airplane marketing is a lot of work... lots of people need to be seen.... one on one.... or maybe with their wife or husband....

The coolest thing about this job... you can bring the machine right to the potential client... try that with industrial machinery....   
 

There are a few things that would make a Mooney irresistible compared to the others... it’s almost there...
 

Best regards,

-a-

[cliffy]

1 hour ago, carusoam said:

Airplane marketing is a lot of work... lots of people need to be seen.... one on one.... or maybe with their wife or husband....

One item I always taught my copilots in corporate aviation was -  If the boss's wife is happy the boss is happy. 

The wife has to approve before the sale is consummated so sell to the wife also. 

[Danb]

4 hours ago, cliffy said:

One item I always taught my copilots in corporate aviation was -  If the boss's wife is happy the boss is happy. 

The wife has to approve before the sale is consummated so sell to the wife also. 

Cliff better yet when your bestest initiates the sale. My second Mooney was never intended, while my third was again somewhat her idea wanting a faster plane, great move her vacation travel now always start with the Mooney prior not so much.

[aviatoreb]

The economy is a wreck right now so it is hard to imagine spinning back up this company that managed to crash 6 months ago while the economy was in greta shape.  That said, I am not an economist and for all I know, at this price point, maybe the buyers of new airplanes are insensitive to the market forces at play today since this is not a standard structural recession.  

Ok enough pretending to be an economist.  Now I will pretend to be an aircraft sales guru.

I think the solution to a fantastically successful Mooney moving forward has been said here over and over, and there is no getting around it - two points.

1) An exciting and innovative and proactive sales team.  Show up at the big air shows. With a sales force who are excited and want to talk to customers about their fantastic product and who want to sell airplanes.  Like Dan said, fly the airplane to customers.  I know that king air did that for a local pilot about 2 years ago who called king air and was just thinking about buying.  This is a thing.  The understated sales concept, with brooding sales people at air shows who would rather play with their iPhones than talk to live customers is driving away customers.  Ones with cash in their pockets apparently by one story above./

2) Ok this is the elephant in the room.  This is going to cost a lot of money.  But they keep getting money and retooling then blowing the money with nothing much to show for it.  Well they do have a nicely retooled factory and that is great.  And an M10 project that died.  There is no getting around - time to really buckle down and certify an all new airplane.  I know that costs a fortune.  But if they want to jump from the back of the pack to the front of the pack, then this is something that would do it.  I would suggest a plastic plane that is otherwise exactly shaped like an M20.  Why - because there is name recognition still with Mooney. This is something the Mooney brand still has panache - I think.  And name recognition.  

So from the ground up, design a plastic plane for a quick and easy build that is shaped exactly like the acclaim.  It would be smoother, and so a tad bit faster even.  And if designed in cad, and with the right lay ups and materials it might be lighter, to allow for...yes...a parachute...and als more useful load.  And ... diesel.  A big  and powerful diesel that would push this little place to 250TAS on 15gph.  How much does it cost to certify a new airplane?  50M?  Well that is what it costs.  Otherwise maybe don't bother.  Better to spend 50M on a real shot at the front of the pack than another 20M at 3 years of dragging out a painful slide.

As far as certifying a plastic version of a classic metal plane, this is what such a beast looks like.  Here is a plastic kit plane that is otherwise a piper commanche, and indeed it is better, smoother, and faster, and faster to build with less parts, but same aerodynamics.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravin_500

[exM20K]

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

SWAT...

Sell what’s available today...  (sales training 101...)

Yah.... I’ve always known it as SWOT: Sell what’s on the truck.  Or in some Chicago precincts... Sell what fell off the truck ;-)

 

you and @LANCECASPER make great points about sales and marketing.  Cirrus puts enormous resources, human and financial, into their sales and marketing.  Unless the other manufacturers get that, want that, and are capable of doing that, they will struggle regardless of the merits of the product.

I believe all aircraft sales will be sluggish for the foreseeable future.  Pro pilot and foreign student programs are in trouble and liquidating a lot of trainers onto the used market.   Credit is almost certainly tighter than before, and buyers have little FOMO (fear of missing out).

I do hope I’m wrong...

-dan

[MooneyMitch]

Through it all....... I still maintain.......Mooney marketing failure! 

[Tim Jodice]

24 minutes ago, exM20K said:

Credit is almost certainly tighter than before.

Fortunately it is not. You need to meet the requirements as always but it is there for the taking. Typical loan requirement  is 15% down and  5-6% interest for piston singles.

That Is based off talking to Dorr Aviation.

[Danb]

5 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

The economy is a wreck right now so it is hard to imagine spinning back up this company that managed to crash 6 months ago while the economy was in greta shape.  That said, I am not an economist and for all I know, at this price point, maybe the buyers of new airplanes are insensitive to the market forces at play today since this is not a standard structural recession.  

Ok enough pretending to be an economist.  Now I will pretend to be an aircraft sales guru.

I think the solution to a fantastically successful Mooney moving forward has been said here over and over, and there is no getting around it - two points.

1) An exciting and innovative and proactive sales team.  Show up at the big air shows. With a sales force who are excited and want to talk to customers about their fantastic product and who want to sell airplanes.  Like Dan said, fly the airplane to customers.  I know that king air did that for a local pilot about 2 years ago who called king air and was just thinking about buying.  This is a thing.  The understated sales concept, with brooding sales people at air shows who would rather play with their iPhones than talk to live customers is driving away customers.  Ones with cash in their pockets apparently by one story above./

2) Ok this is the elephant in the room.  This is going to cost a lot of money.  But they keep getting money and retooling then blowing the money with nothing much to show for it.  Well they do have a nicely retooled factory and that is great.  And an M10 project that died.  There is no getting around - time to really buckle down and certify an all new airplane.  I know that costs a fortune.  But if they want to jump from the back of the pack to the front of the pack, then this is something that would do it.  I would suggest a plastic plane that is otherwise exactly shaped like an M20.  Why - because there is name recognition still with Mooney. This is something the Mooney brand still has panache - I think.  And name recognition.  

So from the ground up, design a plastic plane for a quick and easy build that is shaped exactly like the acclaim.  It would be smoother, and so a tad bit faster even.  And if designed in cad, and with the right lay ups and materials it might be lighter, to allow for...yes...a parachute...and als more useful load.  And ... diesel.  A big  and powerful diesel that would push this little place to 250TAS on 15gph.  How much does it cost to certify a new airplane?  50M?  Well that is what it costs.  Otherwise maybe don't bother.  Better to spend 50M on a real shot at the front of the pack than another 20M at 3 years of dragging out a painful slide.

As far as certifying a plastic version of a classic metal plane, this is what such a beast looks like.  Here is a plastic kit plane that is otherwise a piper commanche, and indeed it is better, smoother, and faster, and faster to build with less parts, but same aerodynamics.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravin_500

Erik I thought the economy was a wreck also but not all, I just left a meeting with a real estate client of mine he told me they not just his company but all of a Delaware has no inventory to sell, the shells in the poorest part of the city went for say 10-15 grand, now you can’t find any under 40,000 sell within a couple days, going up the chain his homes in the 250,000 range are selling at a premium within days, upward to a few homes for sale in N Delaware and S Chester County he has three that he was hoping to sell for $450,000 all three within a week have been offered up to $500,000, now interest rates for high credit families approximate 2.7%. There are around 2500 homes in inventory in new castle De currently around 700-800 homes available. So the economic situation is selective. 
I also have a handful who can’t find employees to hire, these are restaurants, small retailers and construction. There making more staying home example say 300 week unemployment plus 600 unemployment stimulus times mom and dad. That’s $1800 per week or $7700 per month times 12 months that approximates $80-90,000 per family, no day care just live off us. They then cry the economy sucks. Your a real smart guy Erik but I’m seeing differing things in Delaware. My business clients are going out of business due to inability to find employees.

Something is happening I don’t know what, big companies like Amazon lots government underhanded deals going on I really don’t know what, Everyone one of these mom and pop stores sales now go to the internet sales. My three day cares are near bankrupt as are my contractors the big box stores are taking there work.

The situation is changing I’m not sure the economy is bad or the economy has shifted towards the big guy.

The next couple of years will be telling, whatever happens and whatever party is in control all the blame will be on the losing side. I had it so good as a kid, teenager, younger dude regardless of Vietnam and through my middle years and now a senior all has been good.

Our kids, for the younger folks, grandkids etc, what a mess we’ve left them. Unbelievable happy I grew up in the era I did.

[Skates97]

6 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

1) An exciting and innovative and proactive sales team.  Show up at the big air shows. With a sales force who are excited and want to talk to customers about their fantastic product and who want to sell airplanes.  Like Dan said, fly the airplane to customers.  I know that king air did that for a local pilot about 2 years ago who called king air and was just thinking about buying.  This is a thing.  The understated sales concept, with brooding sales people at air shows who would rather play with their iPhones than talk to live customers is driving away customers.  Ones with cash in their pockets apparently by one story above./

 

When we had the fly-in a couple years ago in Paso Robles Richard Simile flew a brand new Acclaim Ultra from Phoenix. Those of you that have met Richard know he is very knowledgeable, very personable, and loves Mooney's. He talked up all the great points of the new Ultra, what sets it apart from the pack, let anyone that wanted to climb in and sit in it, and answered any questions anyone had. His excitement for the plane was contagious, and you could tell he was loving what he was doing. If they could have cloned him and sent him out to the airshows with new Acclaims, I think you would have seen a lot more interest and sales. It might not have made enough of a difference, but I would like to have seen it.