Should Tesla buy Mooney?

[Kmac]

 

I've created a business plan and contacted Tesla/Elon Musk and am hoping to get a response.  I am assuming Mooney Aircraft Corporation is for sale: Legendary Aircraft Manufacturer in Kerrville, Texas - BizBuySell

I believe that Tesla should purchase Mooney Aircraft Company in its entirety, specifically for the type certificate, create an electric conversion STC and sell new, fully electric aircraft and offer the STC to current owners so they can convert to electric.  Purchasing an already developed and proven design would reduce research and development costs and time to market.  This would be similar to Tesla building the first roadster based on the Lotus Elise except purchasing the entire company first.

I currently own two Tesla vehicles and am familiar with the charging and software.  If I input a destination the vehicle computes estimated time of arrival and remaining charge by incorporating elevation, speed and other variables which I have found quite accurate.  If you must stop for charging the software tells you where to stop and for how long before you can continue to your next charger or destination.  Applying the software to an electric Mooney would be feasible.  Simply input your destination and the most efficient route including altitude and winds aloft by accessing current weather could be used.

I am of the opinion that this new aircraft should be based on the F model Mooney being the mid-length and last to offer the manual gear.  A manual gear and B model manual flaps (not the C or later hydraulic flaps) should be the standard, saving the most electricity, but an electric gear and flaps could also be offered.  The new, two door, carbon cabin would also be standard.  Obviously, a redesigned and reduced frontal area cowl will enhance the already aerodynamic design.  A ballistic parachute could also be offered as an option.

 

 

The specifics if you are still interested:

The Mooney M20F model empty weight is around 1640lbs.  Remove the engine and accessories, avionics, propeller and hub and the airframe should weigh around 1200lbs.  A new Mooney has a max landing weight of 3200lbs for basically the same landing gear.  3200lbs would be the new gross weight of this model.

There are two motor options.  The first is a single Rolls Royce RRP260D 260kW (350hp) motor weighing 110 lbs.  The second would be a quantity of 2 stacked RRP70D 70kW motors (188hp total) weighing 114lbs.   This would be for redundancy and to remain below the high performance threshold.  Add another 50 +/- lbs. for avionics, wiring and propeller and you are now around 1360 lbs.

 

 

Tesla has recently introduced the 4680 cell.  This cell measures 46x80mm or 1.811”x1.811”x3.15” totaling 10.33 cubic inches.  Each cell weighs 355 grams or 0.782641lbs.  Each fully charged cell holds .1199kWh.

The Mooney wing has enough space to house 1840 of these cells with some in the engine compartment for weight and balance purposes.  1840 of these cells provide a battery pack of 220kWh and weighs 1440 lbs.  There would also be an option to drop 440lbs or 70kWh to have a higher payload for local flights and/or more passengers.

The new empty weight with the 220kWh pack would be 2800lbs leaving 400lbs for payload.  The empty weight with the 150kWh pack would be 2360lbs leaving 840lbs for payload.

A 200hp Lycoming engine puts out about 120hp at 12000ft and a clean J model should cruise around 160 knots.  If you operate the 220kWh Tesla-Mooney at 120hp/90kW, which should equal 160k at 12k feet, the run time would be 2.44 hours while the 150kWh would run for 1.66 hours.

A full charge for the 220kWh battery should cost about $30 charging in your hangar.  The cost for “fuel” will run about $12 per hour.  While superchargers could be installed at almost every airport, the cost is usually around $0.30 per kWh making a normal recharge (10%-80%) around $46.

Kerrville Texas is still the perfect location being near the new Tesla Gigafactory in Austin where the batteries could be sourced from.

 

 

Imagine no more gas, oil, CO2, compression checks, rebuilds, etc.  Imagine coming to your airplane and every time having a “full tank”.

 

 

Obviously I look forward to critiques or I would not have posted here. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Kmac

[LANCECASPER]

Careful what you wish for . . .

It's been for sale long enough now to determine that $15 million is more than what the market will pay. 

Anyone with any business sense who bought it for less than that would very likely look at what assets there are (TC's, manufacturing authority and physical assets) and what what they could sell them for, ending any support we have presently.

(Of the two, Musk or Bezos, Bezos seems to have a stronger interest personally in aviation.)

 

[mike_elliott]

Elon has expressed interest in developing a VTOL elect plane in the future. It has been previously presented to him that acquiring the TC and Production cert of Mooney now might be an efficient way to enter this space when he has the bandwidth for this project. Once battery energy is 400whr/kg, he believes it becomes a feasible project. Who am I to say he's wrong

 

[ZuluZulu]

Can’t wait for my Mooney to burst into flames and keep me locked in it, then Elon takes a break from Hitler memes to tweet about how it was all my fault. Sounds great. 

[flyboy0681]

Wait, Kmac's post was serious?

[A64Pilot]

What assets does Mooney actually have? It may not be as much as many suppose.

However there is value in a Production Certificate for anyone wanting to produce aircraft and or parts, but I doubt there is much more than a PC to be had really.

It woud be foolish I believe to try to covert an old design metal aircraft to electric, just like it would be foolish to convert a 57 Chevy and try to sell it.

[A64Pilot]

Actually Elon and company have run the numbers on energy density required to make an electric aircraft viable, and we aren’t close yet. He published it quite awhile ago, I believe he’s wanting to build something similar to a biz jet but not sure.

The 4680 cell is really an upsized 2170 which is really noting more than a big 18650 which is what he started with, a very good flashlight battery.

The numbers are the size of the battery the 18650 is 18mm x 65mm, 21 x 70 and now 46 x 80 other then scaling them up and tabless construction there isn’t much difference, the reason why a 4680 is “better” is primarily because it takes a lot less of them to make a pack, and there is some increase in energy density per cubic inch of cell as there is less open space. But primarily it’s a cost savings and ease of manufacturing thing.

Cells have been a bottleneck in production which has been greatly eased since this year when all Tesla standard range cars get the Chinese made prismatic LifePo4 battery packs.

”Prismatic” cells like all of the major auto manufacturers are using is more likely the future, but for aviation pouch cells may be it.

A major issue with batteries is if you pull high power from them, then you had better have a very good thermal management system, the early Tesla’s could go like stink in a 1/4 mile but didn’t do so good on the Nuremberg ring, the later model 3’s however are doing well in the ring.

One interesting thing to me, while all of the major auto manufacturers haven’t been able to produce autos due to a chip shortage, Tesla almost doubled production last year, makes one wonder.

Edited March 6, 2022 by A64Pilot

[mike_elliott]

  On 3/6/2022 at 8:10 PM, ZuluZulu said:

Can’t wait for my Mooney to burst into flames and keep me locked in it, then Elon takes a break from Hitler memes to tweet about how it was all my fault. Sounds great. 

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There were almost 190,000 vehicle fires in the U.S. in 2019, and they happen in gasoline vehicles at a much higher rate. It notes that from 2012 to 2020 there was about one Tesla vehicle fire per 205 million miles traveled—versus one per 19 million miles traveled for all types, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation.

Chivvy Bolts are a bit more combustible and have been pulled off the market as a result, or it may have been they only sold 25 of them last qtr, While the cars are exploding, sales sure are not.

"you did this Mary" "You Led"

[Skates97]

  On 3/6/2022 at 9:07 PM, mike_elliott said:

Chevy Bolts are a bit more combustible and have been pulled off the market as a result, or it may have been they only sold 25 of them last qtr, While the cars are exploding, sales sure are not. 

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They put a stop sale on them, turning them into dead inventory sitting on our lots. They are replacing the batteries in all of them, the priority is replacing the batteries in customer owned before we can do the ones in our new inventories, as it should be. But that does leave us unable to sell any.

You should see the stacks and rows of crates we have with new batteries coming in and old cores going back. 

[201Steve]

I dont know if there’s any new news on this but Elon has been quoted in the past saying although he would like to do aircraft, “his brain might explode”. Rocket company and car company simultaneously is already a freakish anomaly. 

[mike_elliott]

  On 3/6/2022 at 10:16 PM, Skates97 said:

They put a stop sale on them, turning them into dead inventory sitting on our lots. They are replacing the batteries in all of them, the priority is replacing the batteries in customer owned before we can do the ones in our new inventories, as it should be. But that does leave us unable to sell any.

You should see the stacks and rows of crates we have with new batteries coming in and old cores going back. 

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I hope you dont have to pay floor planning on them while they wait, and I understand LG is footing the bill almost if not entirely for the new batteries. It will be interesting to see how GM executes its plan to convert to Electric vehicles and dethrone Tesla in the next 3 years as Mary stated..Somebody had better come up with some serious cash to put in to get it done, and its a one way cash valve at the UAW and DC, Perhaps their Chinese partner SAIC who builds those caddies?

[EricJ]

I didn't see an option for:   Not if Musk is involved.

[mike_elliott]

It would be great if he did. It would succeed for sure.

[Utah20Gflyer]

I don't see Elon being interested in a company that basically produces a 60 year old aircraft design.  Yes, for the vintage Mooney's are excellent airplanes but they aren't state of the art.  Elon didn't try to repurpose the Saturn V rocket or retrofit a Chevy to be an electric vehicle.  I don't see him wanting to try to repurpose a Mooney.   There are just too many compromises needed to retrofit an existing product versus a clean sheet design.  

[MooneyMitch]

As the young SpaceX engineer that provided our tour of the rocket factory said, Elon will use an object if it already exists and it is applicable. Otherwise, if it doesn’t exist, he will create it (that’s been quite obvious)!

Being the progressive technologist that he is, even if he purchased Mooney, I would be most surprised if found the current M20 airframe applicable, or useable.

[Boilermonkey]

EVTOL and GA are really different markets.  I can see him entering eVTOL to create a new transportation service for the mass market.  I don’t see him entering a niche market with  such a small number of total customers (certified pilots).  

[1964-M20E]

might be nice but my main mission flight is 3.5 to 4 hours.  I tend to agree if you are going to go electric go with a new design.  However, maybe a carbon fiber copy of the F model.  Carbon fiber fuselage and tail section  and a new carbon fiber wing.  We need as strong not stronger and much lighter airframe to pack more batteries to get a 5 hour duration.  I do like manual gear and B style manual flaps.

[Kmac]

To those who responded to the poll "There is no chance you will ever see me in an electric aircraft."

About 10 years ago I remember telling my father in law that I would never drive an electric car in my lifetime.  3 years ago I owned a VW car and they had an eGolf on their lot.  I figured, what the heck...I'll take it for a test drive.   During the test drive I was blown away by the acceleration, torque, smoothness and quietness.  I immediately thought "Why isn't everyone driving an electric car?"  I purchased it on the spot.  A year after that we purchased the Tesla Model Y for my wife and were even more impressed with the acceleration, ride, charging infrastructure and software.  I sold my eGolf shortly after and purchased a Model 3 for myself.  Currently I pay about $8/week (about 300 miles) to drive my vehicle.

I don't drive an electric vehicle to be "green".  I drive it because the ride and performance is better than any other vehicle I've been in.  If part of that performance, smoothness, ease and savings can be transferred to a light airplane I'm all for it...

[Kmac]

To those who are not satisfied with predicted range.

My normal mission is 420NM.  I have done that trip multiple times and, on average, would take me 3:15 without stopping.  The last few times I've made the trip I have stopped within about 50NM of my destination to purchase significantly cheaper fuel.  The electric aircraft I'm proposing would not make that trip non-stop.  I would be very satisfied, though, to make a single stop to recharge at a supercharger for about 30 minutes.  That trip would go from about $200 to about $50 one way.

[Kmac]

  On 3/7/2022 at 9:49 AM, Boilermonkey said:

EVTOL and GA are really different markets.  I can see him entering eVTOL to create a new transportation service for the mass market.  I don’t see him entering a niche market with  such a small number of total customers (certified pilots).  

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The power requirements for EVTOL are significantly more than for straight and level flight.  I do not see many, if any, people able to afford an aircraft such as that.  If you will be able to afford an EVTOL aircraft you are probably already being flown around in a helicopter.  Private pilots may be a small number but at least there are already some potential customers.

As far as I know, Elon Musk is an "all of the above" guy.  I think he would be excited to be able to sell multiple thousands of electric airplanes...

[Browncbr1]

  On 3/7/2022 at 12:46 PM, Kmac said:

To those who are not satisfied with predicted range.

My normal mission is 420NM.  I have done that trip multiple times and, on average, would take me 3:15 without stopping.  The last few times I've made the trip I have stopped within about 50NM of my destination to purchase significantly cheaper fuel.  The electric aircraft I'm proposing would not make that trip non-stop.  I would be very satisfied, though, to make a single stop to recharge at a supercharger for about 30 minutes.  That trip would go from about $200 to about $50 one way.

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how many outputs do these super charger stations have?  How many aircraft can be supercharged in an hour?  Can linemen do it without you after you arrive?  Do the batteries have to cool before recharging?

[Browncbr1]

you need another option in the vote... " i can't afford it"   haha..

[Kmac]

  On 3/7/2022 at 1:35 PM, Browncbr1 said:

how many outputs do these super charger stations have?  How many aircraft can be supercharged in an hour?  Can linemen do it without you after you arrive?  Do the batteries have to cool before recharging?

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Most superchargers have about 8 stalls.  Some have as many as 20 or more.  All new superchargers are 250kW.  I would say that most airports would be fine with 4 stalls.  A 250kW charger will charge your 220kWh battery in less than one hour.  Absolutely a lineman can plug in and unplug your aircraft!  Way easier than fueling with a hose.  The batteries do not need to cool before recharging, in fact, during cold weather when approaching a supercharger the software says "preconditioning battery for fast charging".  Meaning it is heating the battery to optimal temperature to accept supercharging...

 

  On 3/7/2022 at 1:36 PM, Browncbr1 said:

you need another option in the vote... " i can't afford it"   haha..

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lol...I didn't make that option because us pilots can't afford not to...

[Kmac]

  On 3/7/2022 at 12:56 AM, mike_elliott said:

It would be great if he did. It would succeed for sure.

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I agree.

[GeeBee]

Wait until you get the airplane above 10K with the temps below zero and watch the "range-o-meter" drop down to 100nm. Right now below zero most electric vehicles suffer between 50 and 68% range reduction, because you have to run the heater in the cabin. Teslas do better with a reverse cycle climate unit, but even they loose 20%. Those reverse cycle units will be about 60 pounds off your payload. Now add a cooling system which is also required and payload starts suffering real quick. Pipistrel has found their electric trainer to be less that what they thought and it is in the LSA territory. A serious cross country electric airplane is decades away. Not saying it will not happen, but not soon, not even in ten years. 

This says it all