LANCECASPER Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, Schllc said: This is your target market. If you only had 10% of that interested in aviation, you couldn’t make enough planes to satisfy even 1% of that 10%. That would be 22,000 people…. That’s about the amount of planes Mooney has built in total over 70 years! Mooney has built less than 11,500 airplanes, total, ever. Ovation serial number 29-0053 made in 1995 was the 10,000th Mooney. In March of 2006 another Ovation was the 11,000th Mooney. Unfortunately only a few hundred have been made since then, less than 200 Acclaims (including Ultras) and roughly another 200 Ovations (including Ultras). Production stopped in 2009, started back up again in 2014 with the first delivery in 2015 and then stopped again in 2019. Quote
Schllc Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 For some reason I thought it was 20k instead. Thanks for the correction. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Pinecone said: Hmm, my local flight school is adding a plane and instructors to keep with the number of students. Doesn't sound like no one can afford to fly. And in the late 70s through the early 90s, there was 1 - 2 planes and 1 - 2 instructors. One of the really big things that killed GA aircraft sales was the removal of the Investment Tax Credit. That was a 10% tax CREDIT on a business purchase. So buy $100,000 airplane, get a tax CREDIT of $10,000. Also changes in Sub S corp rules that meant there had to be the possibility of a profit and showing a profit every so many years. The number of students in flight schools is increasing because they want to fly for airlines – not own an airplane. They are reading about the salaries, and the big raises that the pilots at the majors are getting. They want to fly the new commercial iron that basically flies itself - so they can just sit in front of the computer screens monitoring the magenta line. Quote
Schllc Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, A64Pilot said: The people who can afford it, are in the most part not interested anymore. They buy shares in Netjets instead. What it costs to buy and insure and maintain a 1.3 Million dollar Cirrus, I bet you can go with Netjets instead. The first part you said is probably the real reason it’s all suffering. If you can’t get people interested in the product it’s doomed. A 25 hour jet card is running about 200k+ presently. I don’t believe a single engine piston cost anywhere near that per year to own and operate. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, A64Pilot said: A few things. As someone else stated there was a post covid boom, that will return to normal after the economy slows. That’s my belief too, the economy slowing Many being trained are hoping for that Airline job, not their own private airplane, and only a very few are expecting to buy new, vast majority are salivating over a 50 yr old C-172 or maybe an old Mooney etc. of the few who are being trained to be a private pilot. Finally, I did NOT say no one could afford to fly, what I said was the working stiff can no longer afford to fly, back in the 60’s and 70’s most of the Physicians in my town had new airplanes and the successful local plumber, electrician, small business owner etc had a 5 yr old used airplane, very, very few had “old” as in greater than 10 yr old airplanes. Every weekend there were several people out flying and on a nice day you had to wait in line for the wash rack. There were two FBO’s and follow me trucks met every incoming airplane vying for their business. None of that is true today, but the town had at least twice the population. There are literally millions that can afford to fly, visit any South Fl Marina and walk down the rows of more than Million dollar Sportfishermen etc by the hundreds, each one burns way more fuel than an airplane and slip rent is more than hangar rent etc. But they aren’t the common man either. Face it, the gap between the Wealthy and the rest of the population is quite large, much larger than in times past. But flying is hard, many sweaty hours in tiny airplanes that you barely can fit into, being bounced around, and in a year or so you can be turned loose on your own, in a tiny, sweaty little box, where the Sportfisherman you buy it today and are on the water tomorrow, with two young things on your arms, no sweating and “Captains” to drive it are readily available if one of the young things needs attention down below. The people who can afford it, are in the most part not interested anymore. They buy shares in Netjets instead. What it costs to buy and insure and maintain a 1.3 Million dollar Cirrus, I bet you can go with Netjets instead. Spot on. The idea that an ever more expensive “GA” plane can attract an ever more wealthy customer base is delusional. As if a slightly cheaper, smaller Epic E1000 or TBM 960 will attract a “cost conscious “ multimillionaire is a joke. As you go higher in wealth, this “target market “ can more afford to hire a charter - Netjets, etc. They can enjoy the flight with a drink. How many wealthy really want to stay current in a pressurized turboprop? Get real. BTW - if they have actually created wealth their lawyers will be advising them and their family to NOT PILOT A PLANE. And if they inherited it they may be happy taking the risk - but more likely want to enjoy the flight with a drink…. Edited February 26, 2023 by 1980Mooney Quote
philiplane Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, LANCECASPER said: Mooney has built less than 11,500 airplanes, total, ever. Ovation serial number 29-0053 made in 1995 was the 10,000th Mooney. In March of 2006 another Ovation was the 11,000th Mooney. Unfortunately only a few hundred have been made since then, less than 200 Acclaims (including Ultras) and roughly another 200 Ovations (including Ultras). Production stopped in 2009, started back up again in 2014 with the first delivery in 2015 and then stopped again in 2019. For comparison, Cirrus has already built more than 9,000 piston airplanes in 23 years. Current piston prices range from $600k for a base SR20, up to $1.35 million for a bespoke edition SR22 FIKI Turbo. Most of the sales are of well-equipped SR22's in the $950k to $1.1M range. There are plenty of pilots with the means to own a high performance traveling machine. Mooney just hasn't figured out how to appeal to them against this competition. 2 Quote
Hank Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, philiplane said: There are plenty of pilots with the means to own a high performance traveling machine. Mooney just hasn't figured out how to appeal to them against this competition. Mooney insists on trying to sell airplanes. Cirrus sells a lifestyle that happens to include some airplane flying . . . . 1 Quote
hammdo Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 ^^^ This - it’s all about marketing - and feeling ‘good’. Add in the ‘cool factor’ and there you go… -Don Quote
MikeOH Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 21 minutes ago, Hank said: Mooney insists on trying to sell airplanes. Cirrus sells a lifestyle that happens to include some airplane flying . . . . I'm going to have to disagree a bit. No doubt there's a 'lifestyle element' to their marketing but I don't believe that is deciding element in their success. Cirrus did an outstanding job of creating a complete 'solution' to a travel 'problem'...air quotes because it really isn't a complete solution nor is the problem as big as they portend. But, that's what comes across to their prospective customers. They appeal to the successful small entrepreneur with low millions, NOT tens of millions, of dollars at his disposal that is frustrated by airline schedules and location limitations. They also understand the 'family' (i.e. the significant other) needs to be sold...hence, not just the 'chute, but the luxury car feel and style. Plus the 'one stop shop' buy, train, maintain...all is laid out with the appropriate follow through. They've thought through ALL the factors and implemented a marketing plan that addresses them! You are absolutely right they are NOT selling airplanes! (Despite the fact that that's how they make their money!) Quote
Schllc Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, MikeOH said: I'm going to have to disagree a bit. No doubt there's a 'lifestyle element' to their marketing but I don't believe that is deciding element in their success. Cirrus did an outstanding job of creating a complete 'solution' to a travel 'problem'...air quotes because it really isn't a complete solution nor is the problem as big as they portend. But, that's what comes across to their prospective customers. They appeal to the successful small entrepreneur with low millions, NOT tens of millions, of dollars at his disposal that is frustrated by airline schedules and location limitations. They also understand the 'family' (i.e. the significant other) needs to be sold...hence, not just the 'chute, but the luxury car feel and style. Plus the 'one stop shop' buy, train, maintain...all is laid out with the appropriate follow through. They've thought through ALL the factors and implemented a marketing plan that addresses them! You are absolutely right they are NOT selling airplanes! (Despite the fact that that's how they make their money!) Mooney has been trying to sell to people who know exactly what they want, and that market is small. Cirrus had been selling to people that didn’t know they wanted one, which is an exponentially larger market. 2 Quote
MikeOH Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Schllc said: Mooney has been trying to sell to people who know exactly what they want, and that market is small. Cirrus had been selling to people that didn’t know they wanted one, which is an exponentially larger market. Exactly! I bet they don't spend the bulk of their ad budget on Flying and AOPA magazine, either! Probably ads in rags targeted to high net-worth individuals. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 26, 2023 Report Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Schllc said: Mooney has been trying to sell to people who know exactly what they want, and that market is small. Cirrus had been selling to people that didn’t know they wanted one, which is an exponentially larger market. Well you are partially right. Mooney is selling what they want regardless of what the broader market wants. Cirrus is selling what the broader market wants. That is why Cirrus sells over 500 SEP per year and why Mooney is no longer selling aircraft. YES -There are a few that value and want what Mooney has to offer. Just like the 3 that value and purchased a new G36 Bonanza this year. But Mooney isn’t selling hundreds of other planes per year like Cessna such that they could spread/share the manufacturing costs on a few marginally profitable planes. Mooney would just lose more cash cost per plane. Edited February 26, 2023 by 1980Mooney Quote
hais Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 I think there are more fundamental constraints. Suppose you could build the 1200lbs UL, pressurized, 300kts beast profitably for $80K provided that you could sell 1 million of them. Would you be able to find the buyers? 1 Quote
LANCECASPER Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, hais said: I think there are more fundamental constraints. Suppose you could build the 1200lbs UL, pressurized, 300kts beast profitably for $80K provided that you could sell 1 million of them. Would you be able to find the buyers? one little problem, you can't buy a new engine for that amount. Quote
Steve0715 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 33 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said: you can't buy a new engine for that amount Insane what engines are running and lycoming is quote a 1 year delivery. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 44 minutes ago, hais said: I think there are more fundamental constraints. Suppose you could build the 1200lbs UL, pressurized, 300kts beast profitably for $80K provided that you could sell 1 million of them. Would you be able to find the buyers? For $80k?! Alchemy? Perpetual motion engines?! Ok. Quote
Schllc Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said: For $80k?! Alchemy? Perpetual motion engines?! Ok. I’m pretty sure if you contacted continental or lycoming and placed an order for 1million engines you would be able to negotiate significantly less than 80k. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Schllc said: I’m pretty sure if you contacted continental or lycoming and placed an order for 1million engines you would be able to negotiate significantly less than 80k. I think we need a turbine for 300 kts…call P&W Quote
Schllc Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said: I think we need a turbine for 300 kts…call P&W I never suggested 300knts. I don’t think it’s necessary. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 58 minutes ago, hais said: I think there are more fundamental constraints. Suppose you could build the 1200lbs UL, pressurized, 300kts beast profitably for $80K provided that you could sell 1 million of them. Would you be able to find the buyers? The simple answer is NO. 1 million new pilots will not go through the grief of being instrument rated and the recurrent training to being proficient /current in a pressurized turboprop. Oh and remaining drug free. They will be killing innocent people in droves. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Schllc said: I never suggested 300knts. I don’t think it’s necessary. But @hais did say 300 kts. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, 1980Mooney said: But @hais did say 300 kts. Oh and @hais stipulated that the entire plane with engine and avionics (and parachute?!) needs to cost $80k in total. Garmin needs to give away their equipment. Quote
1980Mooney Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, MikeOH said: Exactly! I bet they don't spend the bulk of their ad budget on Flying and AOPA magazine, either! Probably ads in rags targeted to high net-worth individuals. Unlikely. I bet they don’t need to pay to advertise. I bet spouses are their best advocates- “If I am going to own 1/2 of this plane, then it Will Have A Parachute”. And “what do you mean we can’t fill the seats in a Mooney? - we can in a Cirrus!” After all they are sold out for a year or two. Quote
A64Pilot Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 5 hours ago, Pinecone said: Investment Tax Credit. They were leveraging that tax credit. Plus, what were 40 year old aircraft back then? Cubs, Taylor Crafts, the odd Beech Staggerwing. There just WEREN'T old airplanes. Cessna 195’s too, there really were a lot of airplanes 30 years old or older, the WWII training fleet. Quote
chriscalandro Posted February 27, 2023 Report Posted February 27, 2023 By far the best route for healthy general aviation is the experimental route. 1 Quote
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