Factory Closed Down?

[N9201A]

Elon didnt just move the ball, he changed the game, made the rules, and set quite a bar right under the arrogant noses of the now little 3. Tesla not only found out about the downsides of being in a business with hundreds of millions that require billions, he now has way more billions than Ford, GM and Chrysler Fiat COMBINED. Tesla is the 18th largest Company in the world. Ford and GM are not on the list even. They are about to find out the downsides of being in a business that requires billions they dont have. Their market position ( lack of free cash and long term debt, declining sales) should be very troubling to their leadership. I wont dismiss them, just they really are in a very very difficult position now. They are not the giants and have to spend billions in R&D, marketing, etc to play the new game. I do not doubt they will have to be selling their offerings at a loss to attempt to garner market share, and that hasnt worked so well for the Bolt
The giants to watch that may become real players are Apple, Google and Amazon in this new, AI driven space.
https://www.dogsofthedow.com/largest-companies-by-market-cap.htm
, 

Oooh....a fanboy! I’m not a Tesla-shorter, but Elon is not on any pedestal for me, either.

Its going to be interesting to watch, let’s see what the market looks like in a year or two. Everyone who wants a $60,000 EV has one. EVs are still only a tiny percentage of the market. Let’s see how the lower-cost high volume market is penetrated. The CCS charging infrastructure is a needed component too.

The best news is that with broad competition, we win! And our dollars will decide the companies that will be around a decade from now.

[N9201A]

I remember when people talked that way about the guys running Enron.   Or Bernie Ebbers.   Or...   

 

Most recently, Elizabeth Holmes...

To be fair, Tesla has spearheaded a market and delivered remarkable technologies that have reshaped an industry.

That said, many, many first-movers and innovators eventually have been ground into dust by the big players in their industries — or just been acquired. There is a lot of blocking and tackling that must be done, mundane but critical things that take discipline, engaged teams, and infinite resources.

As any Mooniac knows firsthand, if having the technically “best” product automatically assured long-term market domination, we wouldn’t be exchanging nervous messages about whether we can get parts.

Let’s see where we all are in two or three years...

[firelog1101]

Where did everything go wrong.  It's so hard to see how cheap planes were back in the 70s compared to today.  Why we can't get a brand new Eagle-type aircraft today for 200k or less is such a shame.

Why were prices so cheap back then? I'm fortunate to be young and going into a higher paying field, but even then I'm going to be stuck buying something from the 90s or older.  I can't see a lot of this stuff being viable by the year 2050, even though they've lasted this long.  How does the # of crashes of small GA compare to the actual being pumped out each year?  Less and less people getting PPC....and most of those who are are just moving into commercial aviation.  It's a dying hobby and it's upsetting to be on the younger side of things, but realize that none of my friends could realistically afford to pick it up.

Is it all the lawsuits manufacturers have dealt with? Wages?  I'd honestly be willing to look into buying something made in Mexico or China if quality controls were maintained like they've done with automobiles.  How could they manage to sell aircraft for those prices back then, and we're stuck now with something that is inflation-controlled around 10x the purchase price?

[Missile=Awesome]

20 minutes ago, N9201A said:

Oooh....a fanboy! I’m not a Tesla-shorter, but Elon is not on any pedestal for me, either.

Its going to be interesting to watch, let’s see what the market looks like in a year or two. Everyone who wants a $60,000 EV has one. EVs are still only a tiny percentage of the market. Let’s see how the lower-cost high volume market is penetrated. The CCS charging infrastructure is a needed component too.

The best news is that with broad competition, we win! And our dollars will decide the companies that will be around a decade from now.

UNLESS Big G intervenes and picks a winner.  THEN we all lose EXCEPT those that “picked” the ”winner”...

[Missile=Awesome]

15 minutes ago, firelog1101 said:

Where did everything go wrong.  It's so hard to see how cheap planes were back in the 70s compared to today.  Why we can't get a brand new Eagle-type aircraft today for 200k or less is such a shame.

Why were prices so cheap back then? I'm fortunate to be young and going into a higher paying field, but even then I'm going to be stuck buying something from the 90s or older.  I can't see a lot of this stuff being viable by the year 2050, even though they've lasted this long.  How does the # of crashes of small GA compare to the actual being pumped out each year?  Less and less people getting PPC....and most of those who are are just moving into commercial aviation.  It's a dying hobby and it's upsetting to be on the younger side of things, but realize that none of my friends could realistically afford to pick it up.

Is it all the lawsuits manufacturers have dealt with? Wages?  I'd honestly be willing to look into buying something made in Mexico or China if quality controls were maintained like they've done with automobiles.  How could they manage to sell aircraft for those prices back then, and we're stuck now with something that is inflation-controlled around 10x the purchase price?

I am perfectly happy with a 1980 Airframe.  Aviation ownership has always been expensive.  Most don’t choose “the hobby” without a passion to be above it all.  Glad you are willing and able.  Take up some friends and get the bobber in the water...

200 knots IS a reality for <150k...

THAT is awesome.

[steingar]

New airframes were less expensive in yesteryear.  On the other hand, we have a bounty of pre-owned aircraft that mostly didn't exist back then.  Our preowned aircraft are far less than the aircraft of yesteryear, but probably not all that much more expensive to operate.  Mooney's biggest competition wasn't Cirrus, it was older Mooneys. You can buy a vintage airframe and have it restored to like new condition and give it a glass panel (which also didn't exist in yesteryear) and pay proportionate to what an airplane cost long ago.  This could be the Golden age of general aviation if we really wanted it so.

[aviatoreb]

3 hours ago, chriscalandro said:

I actually bought a Hyundai, who is actually making really great cars filled with modern tech for a really great price point. 
 

for 29k I got lane centering, a HUD (which Tesla doesn’t have) heated and cooled seats, pano sunroof, and 10 year 100k warranty, and “smaht pahk”. I have every feature I wanted in the Tesla, plus some, for half the price, and without range anxiety. 
 

To tie it in with the discussion, Hyundai is a relatively new company in the us and is currently taking a large chunk of the market because of innovation rather than their brand name. 

I'm sort of with you for now - in April I just got a new Subaru Crosstrek (pandemic special) - traded in my 17 year old Subaru WRX STI.  Which was a fantastic car, but finally recently rust has been going after it.  

Here in the North Country - snow country - its hard to beat the utilitarian and simplicity of a good ol AWD basic subaru.  Just over 20k for a new car and it takes me where I want to go.  Wheel stance as if an SUV but good mileage.  It has modern amenities like wheel centering autopilot-like features, 31mpg, backup camera and its just nice.  I am not claiming it is fit and finish like a BMW .. or a Tesla..but nonetheless it is very nice.

Nor fast like either.  But something seems to have changed in me since 17 years ago.  1) My airplane has become my hot rod.  I am not wishing or wanting a car hot rod anymore like I used to.  I can go 250mph in my airplane and not get a speeding ticket. 2) Somehow watching top gear and the "stars in a sensibly priced car" feature - I started liking sensibly priced cars.  :-O  3) actually my new car has a feature which is oh so geek and sort of floats my boat.  Real time it shows me if how I am handling the throttle is giving me above my current average mpg or below my current mpg.  Fantastic and fun feature and I find myself accelerating gradually and also maintaining momentum up and down hills in a way that's a lot like a ride my bike, emphasizing efficiency and its fun.

Price wise its hard to justify 70k car over a 20k car so as to save the price on fuel.

Performance wise there is no doubt that a tesla kicks friggin' butt!  But somehow my airplane became my sentimental hotrod.  And I guess I don't have any J-leno in me wanting more than one hot rod.

There's another thing - here in rural usa, it was a bit sticking out like a sore thumb driving around in a electric blue zoom zoom turbo car with a whale tale through some towns with a lot of poverty and I admit there is a bit of relief of my humble self in just tooling around in a more basic car, even if it is shiny new, still its basic and there's tons of this crosstrek model in these parts.  I know its a different story and culture in LA for example.

...just looked online and I see there is one 250k tesla that will go 0-60 in 1.9 sec.  ?!!!  WOW that's absurd.  Absurdly amazing. I am less so wanting to own that car as just to go in a ride in it once.

Edited July 10, 2020 by aviatoreb

[RLCarter]

2 hours ago, hammdo said:

SUV with a trailer/hitch ;o)?

I’ve done that vs pick up — needed suv with 8 seats — trailer helped for hauling...

-Don

4 door Truck, seats 5, I don’t know 7 people I want in my vehicle......lol

[hammdo]

I hauled my kids and their friends when they were younger — we had an ‘extended’ family ;o)

-Don

[Blue on Top]

4 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

I have no idea why a lead alternative hasnt been certified yet.

Lead is currently the only additive that can boost the octane rating to required levels for certificated engines.  Phillips and others have tried other additives with limited success (and much higher costs).  Here's the catch 22.  Automobiles can use lower octane fuel  (btw, octane ratings between cars and airplanes are different) because they have electronic ignition, and therefore, variable timing.  This is an issue in airplanes that require guaranteed performance.  In other words, your takeoff/climb/go-around performance is based on full HP, but the computer pulls the power back so the engine doesn't knock, … hello trees and mountains!  If the engine was "de-rated" all this issue could go away!  Geared magnetos just can fire precisely enough.

[Blue on Top]

2 hours ago, firelog1101 said:

Where did everything go wrong.  It's so hard to see how cheap planes were back in the 70s compared to today.  Why we can't get a brand new Eagle-type aircraft today for 200k or less is such a shame.

Good point, but the delta is not as big as what most people think.  Insurance has gone up a lot with liability lawsuits.  Labor rates have also gone up a lot … and airplanes were not designed to be built in an automated assembly line.  BUT, what has also gone up is the luxuries within the cabin: better avionics (and very pricey), leather, air conditioning, sound deadening, etc.  As I have mentioned before.  Building an original "J" today could be profitable.  Building an "Ovation/Acclaim J" would not be.  My two cents. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Blue on Top

[RLCarter]

8 minutes ago, Blue on Top said:

Good pint, but the delta is not as big as what most people think.  Insurance has gone up a lot with liability lawsuits. 

Product Liability and Insurance companies rolling over BS lawsuits has damn near ruined several industries. I watched a podcast several years ago from AOPA with one of the guests being the CEO from Cessna, he said on average 40% of the cost is product liability

[Blue on Top]

43 minutes ago, RLCarter said:

one of the guests being the CEO from Cessna, he said on average 40% of the cost is product liability

Interestingly, the product liability insurance on a C210 is very similar to that of a Citation … a lot of it is in the number of people on board.

[firelog1101]

1 hour ago, Blue on Top said:

Good pint, but the delta is not as big as what most people think.  Insurance has gone up a lot with liability lawsuits.  Labor rates have also gone up a lot … and airplanes were not designed to be built in an automated assembly line.  BUT, what has also gone up is the luxuries within the cabin: better avionics (and very pricey), leather, air conditioning, sound deadening, etc.  As I have mentioned before.  Building an original "J" today could be profitable.  Building an "Ovation/Acclaim J" would not be.  My two cents. 

Just from a novice perspective, it sounds like people joining general aviation today looking for something equivalent to a Mooney are most interested in throwing in a couple G5s, a GFC 500-type autopilot, some type of basic JPI engine monitor, and one of these GNX 375 type of deals.  Rip out all the vacuum pumps and unnecessary weight.  Foreflight/Garmin Pilot is such a powerful tool today that it's not very convincing to even want to buy a fully integrated G1000....when you're expecting it to become fairly obsolete within 10 years.

Honestly I couldn't care less if it has FIKI, turbo, A/C, built in O2, leather seats etc.  Half this stuff is actually an unattractive factor due to maintenance/weight/leather makes me sweat.  How many aircraft have you seen online with inoperative built-in O2?  Some stuff is nice to have but at the end of the day probably wasn't worth the expense.  By the time you're done with a late model J, you've sunk about 200k already just for all the aircraft, labor done,  buying Garmin$ stuff.  I could easily see it being tempting to spend another 100k on something brand new, with improved paints and corrosion protection, no "remote history of damage" worries, and presumably a better designed and managed wet-wing.  

So we've got a 300-350k range that I could see useful.  To give perspective, I think more buyers today are looking at stuff from the late 90s/early 2000s for similar aircraft.  You just don't want to get stuck with an old G1000 that breaks, or needs expensive updating to be useful for WAAS/LPV.  

 

You're probably right about the delta being not as big as what I am imagining.  Just looking through the chronology and doing some inflation comparisons, a late 1970s J would be equivalent to about 190k today.  This can probably be compared to a new 172 that retails for what, 400k?  But the fact remains that you can't find something new, that is functionally equivalent to a J model, for 190k today.

Edited July 10, 2020 by firelog1101

[MooneyMitch]

8 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

Like I said, I have raced Porsches

You’ve raced Porsche’s?  I’d love to hear some stories sometime!!!

I’m not bold, nor wealthy enough to race my little red beauty, but admire those that do ( or have) !

[Blue on Top]

5 hours ago, firelog1101 said:

But the fact remains that you can't find something new, that is functionally equivalent to a J model, for 190k today.

@firelog1101  I agree with you.  A 1980 "J" made today would probably be in the $500K range.  But, convincing an OEM to make such a vehicle will be next to impossible.  Simple, cost-effective and practical are not in their vocabularies.  Btw, that is the biggest and most complex word I know.  A redesign for today's manufacturing capabilities will go a long, long way to reduce costs.

Through today's CFD (computer aerodynamics), the older and lower horsepower airplanes can be made more aerodynamic and see a nice improvement in efficiency … The real Mooney trademark.   Speed at any cost was not an Al Mooney trademark.

[bonal]

I'm sure Teslas are very nice and certainly fast  and one can argue the net benefit to the environment till the cows come home but they are without a soul or heritage.  The  history of Lemans Spa Daytona. Laguna Indy such a long list that tesla will likely never share with such emotional connection with its customer.  I remember watching my first formula E race a couple years ago, as they started speaking of up coming pit stops due to energy drain.  I was very intrigued on what would take place thinking they would remove a power pack and install a fully charged one or two like one might with a cordless tool.  What a huge disappointment as I watched the driver jump out of one car into a second car.  Just watched Ford vs Ferrari for the umpteenth time and tesla will never have that kind of emotional human connection.  Kind of the same when we think of our Mooneys compared to the parachute plane.  

[EricJ]

3 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

You’ve raced Porsche’s?  I’d love to hear some stories sometime!!!

I’m not bold, nor wealthy enough to race my little red beauty, but admire those that do ( or have) !

I raced Porsches with my Ford Focus.   The Porsches lost. 
 

Yes, it's a joke.   This was a DE session, not an actual race, and I think they were on street tires and I was on something stickier.   Was still fun and I still gave them a lot of crap about it. 

I have legit beat Porsches in a Ford Taurus, though.   Multiple times. 
 

[carusoam]

 

Eric,

you are driving a straight line through there consistently!

Nailing the Apex!

 

We have a few MSers with serious track experience...

There is a video around here of Andy Pilgrim driving an MSer’s Corvette around a good road course...

Fuzzy old MS memories...

Best regards,

-a-

[cliffy]

Interesting also is the difference in certification time and money need to certify a new design today compared to the 1970s!

What's the cost delta on that at even 100 airframes a year? 

To you car guys running around in this thread-   ME ME ME      I once owned a 1982 911 SC in show room condition. Loved it. 

[Blue on Top]

6 hours ago, cliffy said:

Interesting also is the difference in certification time and money need to certify a new design today compared to the 1970s!

@cliffy  And here is the exact reason I formed Blue on Top LLC.

For part 23 applicants, they must complete certification in no more than 3 years from the date of application (or they have to pick up new regulations).  Part 25 (Transport category airplanes) have 5 years.  This has never changed.

Few regulations have changed substantially over the years.  They are all based on safety, and typically only change after a fatal accident(s).  So what is different?

We, the OEMs, are different.  Airplanes used to be certified with pictures of the instrument panel.  Takeoff and landing data was a series of photographs of the airplane during taking off and landing.  Now we have $0.5M data systems, recording 100s to 1000s of parameters, hundred of times a second.  Then we have 100s of engineers analyze all the data.  Then we have outside, contracted ($$$) DERs (Designated Engineering Representatives) to assure we analyzed the data correctly.  Then we present reams of data to the FAA that looks for errors (and typos and improper grammar) in our reports.  The running joke is that the airplane will certify when the weight of the paperwork equals the gross takeoff weight of the airplane.

The original M20 was certified with a couple engineers and a few draftsmen.  That is all.  Today (depending on the company and airplane), the Engineering staff alone will be from a couple hundred to 1000+.  We've  done this to ourselves.

Sadly, when I would state that we are an OEM, and we can certify anything, the first response was typically that the DER wouldn't approve that.  OEMs don't need or require outside, consulting DERs.  Cessna used to do everything themselves, and they were good at what they did (and they met or exceeded every schedule).  Now, little is done in house … and they are paying the price for it.  The new CEO is going back to the old ways.

Yes, there are valid cases for outsourcing (as larger companies continue to get less competent).  Outsourcing the whole product says an OEM shouldn't be in business … and the cost of the end product will be double what it should be.  Sorry, a lot more than my 2 cents.  -Ron

[mike_elliott]

13 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

You’ve raced Porsche’s?  I’d love to hear some stories sometime!!!

I’m not bold, nor wealthy enough to race my little red beauty, but admire those that do ( or have) !

back in the day...Mooney L drivers would be amazed at the engine similarity.

 

[Missile=Awesome]

7 hours ago, cliffy said:

Interesting also is the difference in certification time and money need to certify a new design today compared to the 1970s!

What's the cost delta on that at even 100 airframes a year? 

To you car guys running around in this thread-   ME ME ME      I once owned a 1982 911 SC in show room condition. Loved it. 

So since this thread is completely off the rails, a question for you.  I was really excited to drive a 1982 manual targa.  When I drove it I did not care for it.  Reason?  The left driver footwell.  I could barely get my foot on the clutch it was so damn tight down there.  I was so worried about missing a gear that I had zero fun.  It was very deflating.  I am sure with time in the car you adapt, but damn that footwell on left side was TIGHT...Do you have any memory of that?

[Missile=Awesome]

10 hours ago, EricJ said:

I raced Porsches with my Ford Focus.   The Porsches lost. 
 

Yes, it's a joke.   This was a DE session, not an actual race, and I think they were on street tires and I was on something stickier.   Was still fun and I still gave them a lot of crap about it. 

I have legit beat Porsches in a Ford Taurus, though.   Multiple times. 
 

They are faster, but YES driver matters...a lot.

[cliffy]

Its been 15 years and the mind has no recollection of that problem

I could however shift quite well on the freeway on ramps as I went from 10 to @90 mph+ as I merged with traffic!! :-) :-)

Mine had no whale tail so it got light in the rear around 125 or above. Got quite skittish up there so I kept it under 120 most of the time. 

How I never got a ticket I'll never know. 

Now my 65 vette was fun also!

Edited July 11, 2020 by cliffy