Factory Closed Down?

[Hank]

Just now, MooneyMitch said:

The future lies ahead....... technology will move forward, eliminating long time charging experiences, and eliminating the batteries that dictate that......

The vast Tesla,  waiting to charge line I’ve witnessed at Madonna Inn ( San Luis Obispo) charging station is enough to frighten me away from such.

Yeah, now imagine lines like that enroute to your destination, at a small town FBO, with longer charge times for larger aircraft batteries. 

Gives me the heebie-jeebies.  

[MooneyMitch]

9 minutes ago, Hank said:

Your local power company runs your ship. Alabama Power runs mine here. As far as I know, there is no overarching structure, just a maze of power companies from large (American Electric Power) to small (electric coops that serve single communities). 

Our CA PG&E Company is a huge bad boy these days, what with starting all those fires.......it’s a love hate relationship with them..... current stock prices reflect that..... our CA government wants to take them over!!

With all that, makes me wonder if PG&E ship captain is even thinking about future needs !

[aviatoreb]

Just now, MooneyMitch said:

The future lies ahead....... technology will move forward, eliminating long time charging experiences, and eliminating the batteries that dictate that......

The vast Tesla,  waiting to charge line I’ve witnessed at Madonna Inn ( San Luis Obispo) charging station is enough to frighten me away from such.

I’m waiting so as not to wait in a charging line. 

And, what about that great sound from my gasoline Porsche Cayman flat 6 engine I get to hear with each acceleration?  Would the engineers add a simulated audio sound in its place?

But wait, Porsche has the electric car already!  Oh my....... vroom, vroom!! 

Right - I see with current technology a few reasons to go all electric car, but there is not a complete solution to cover all needs.

1) the very short range commuter who can charge every day or two at home - that covers my buddy who has an all electric and would cover my commuting needs.

2) those who simply want to invest in the green tech toward the future and willing to give up some utility.

3) charging (so fuel) is cheap on a per mile basis.

3) the super high performance crowd who don't car about range or ease of fueling and just want a show off car - an all electric has absurdly high power density and easily all wheel drive - eg the Porsche that gives up in several areas to be surpreme perhaps in performance.

The downsides with current tech are obvious.

1) range is poor.

2) charging stations are few and far between if on the road. 

3) cost is high, very high, even considering that the charging is high.

4) disposability of a dead battery so the real green of current tech is dubious.

5) on a per kilowatt basis, it is cheaper and cleaner to produce in a massive scale in a factory than in little power plants (the engine in each car).

Hybrid electric and plug in hybrid entirely mitigates the range issue at least.

Still - looking to future tech - I expect that eventually all issues will be solved - and for airplanes too.

[MooneyMitch]

Okay...... enough...... I’m going to airport now!!  

Happy day to all!! 

[aviatoreb]

1 minute ago, Hank said:

Yeah, now imagine lines like that enroute to your destination, at a small town FBO, with longer charge times for larger aircraft batteries. 

Gives me the heebie-jeebies.  

Me too - but you are imaging current tech.  I could imagine that tech in 5 years or 10 years might make those problems something of the past.  

Plus infrastructure improvements.  I mean once upon a time there were gas cars (1910) and no gas stations.  Today there are electric cars and few charging stations.

Today the only reasonable use for an all electric car in my opinion is as a daily work commuter if you can make it there and back on a single charge.  Still that covers a large fraction of the USA fleet of cars in the large fraction of the mileage they put on each year.  So already there is some utility in all electric given already todays imperfect technology.

[MooneyMitch]

Alright..... one last comment prior to my departure........ it’s time for Mike Elliott to chime in on his beautiful Tesla X and his thoughts on the great idea of the electric Mooney..... I absolutely love that thought!!  

Will the new owners of Mooney International move in electric direction?  Wow!! 

[cliffy]

If any of you remember we had, many years ago, all electric homes and neighborhoods.

They went the way of the dinosaur also as they didn't sell well. SLO are you listening? Those who forget history tend to repeat it.

Hybrid power?  Think locomotives. They run diesel generators to power electric drive motors. You have an energy loss in running the diesel engine and the generator then you have an electrical loss in powering the drive motors. Lots of energy loss in the system. 

Power required- for every 100 HP needed at the prop you need to generate AND deliver to it @75KW of electric power (not including the system losses). A 100 amp , 12 volt alternator delivers about 1200 watts or 1.2KWs   (if my numbers are correct)

Are we seeing the size and weight of an alternator that can deliver even 100 HP to the prop? Through  an electric motor with its losses?

A diesel engines driving a generator that drive an electric motor to drive the prop. How many points of failure in this system does one have to allow for and engineer out?   

And now do we see the fact that not only do we need to lift the battery pack but also the big diesel generator plus the electric drive motor? Useful load for such a contraption? 

All one needs to do is measure the weight per HP delivered to the prop of the entire power plant to see if you are ahead of the game or not. 

Until the energy density of any battery can match the energy density of dino juice by weight you will have less than we have now.

Until the recharge rate for that battery can match the time element of a dino juice refill it will be a lessor item. 

Then factor the overall on going costs for new batteries  Will they be  competitive with the cost of an engine overhaul?

Then you have the diesel engine to overhaul, the generator to overhaul and the electric prop drive motor to overhaul. 

The bottom line?  The power has to come from somewhere!  Dino power or?

The wind don't blow but about 2/3 of the time for windmills

The sun don't shine 1/2 the time

The wind don't blow sometimes at night! 

There's only so many hydro-plants out there.  There ain't gonna be any more ever built due to environmentalists!

So where does that leave us? Dino Juice for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

[aviatoreb]

Just now, cliffy said:

If any of you remember we had, many years ago, all electric homes and neighborhoods.

They went the way of the dinosaur also as they didn't sell well. SLO are you listening? Those who forget history tend to repeat it.

...

So where does that leave us? Dino Juice for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

I agree - we are not ready TODAY for electric airplanes.  Or an all electric fleet of cars.  But the phrase "those that forget history..." is meant for human behavior.  It is not a useful expression when it comes to technology adoption or innovation.  The contrary,  new break out technology comes exactly because people dare to do what was not done before or what might have failed before - they innovate new technology to make it work.

I just purchased a new Dino-juice car 3 months ago.  I was not ready to jump on to the elective bandwagon for various cost benefit reasons.  I full expect my next new car will be electric.

Whether or not the power grid can expand to include an all electric car fleet does not mean for or against whether a version of all electric might be perfect for certain airplane applications.  

I will repeat, that in my lifetime I expect and hope to own an all electric airplane that will cover all of my current airplane flying needs and interests.

[cliffy]

26 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

Our CA PG&E Company is a huge bad boy these days, what with starting all those fires.......it’s a love hate relationship with them..... current stock prices reflect that..... our CA government wants to take them over!!

And they shut down their entire grid in N Calif  when the wind blows

So there you are at Yuba City plugged in to charge your big green machine and the grid goes down! 

Some gas stations with a little forethought can at least pump some gas with an independent generator

[MooneyMitch]

Those young brilliant minds we all talk about that are wasting away behind their computer screens in their bedroom,......... they are, and will create what the future demands!! 

I see them in my music industry, and I know they are in other industries as well.

Incentives, and the freedoms to pursue is the carrot for them.....

[aviatoreb]

1 minute ago, MooneyMitch said:

Those young brilliant minds we all talk about that are wasting away behind their computer screens in their bedroom,......... they are, and will create what the future demands!! 

I see them in my music industry, and I know they are in other industries as well.

Incentives, and the freedoms to pursue is the carrot for them.....

Don't worry about me - I'm on the back deck enjoying the lazy afternoon.  Also - believe it or not - I am working - slow burner - I am coding and some of my work coding involves testing my code and then debugging/trying again.  So I have like 5 min dead spots in my work where I check the news or goof off on here on MS shooting-the-breeze about whatever.  Good relaxing Sunday afternoon in the sunshine.

[cliffy]

5 minutes ago, cliffy said:

So where does that leave us? Dino Juice for the foreseeable future. 

Yes somewhere down the line (when?) it will happen but not in the foreseeable future 10+ years. 

If I had a daily commute  of 20 miles or less I might be in the electric car market but I'm not. 

Cost of battery replacement right now is killing the used electric car pricing IIRC

How long do you think it will be before the states start to tax electric vehicles for the gas tax revenue they are losing right now? 

Calif just raised their gas tax again. I see a yearly mileage report and tax per mile in the future, GPS tracking of all electric vehicles for automatic billing of taxes?

[mike_elliott]

1 hour ago, MooneyMitch said:

Alright..... one last comment prior to my departure........ it’s time for Mike Elliott to chime in on his beautiful Tesla X and his thoughts on the great idea of the electric Mooney..... I absolutely love that thought!!  

Will the new owners of Mooney International move in electric direction?  Wow!! 

Well, I wont get into a TSLAQ debate with the shorts or naysayers, suffice it to say I used to race Porsche's and Datsuns, have been lucky enough to be able to drive and own some very fine cars and without question, the electric car makes even the nicest offering from Lexus feel old and antiquated. Great Software can do this to  you. Dont go test drive one, they are hard on your wallet. Fortunately, my TSLA stock has paid for half of mine already

Wait until Sept 15th, when possibly a greater than 500whr/Kg battery is announced, then an electric GA plane becomes viable. We should know of Mooney's future soon.

[salty]

4 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

Well, I wont get into a TSLAQ debate with the shorts or naysayers, suffice it to say I used to race Porsche's and Datsuns, have been lucky enough to be able to drive and own some very fine cars and without question, the electric car makes even the nicest offering from Lexus feel old and antiquated. Great Software can do this to  you. Dont go test drive one, they are hard on your wallet. Fortunately, my TSLA stock has paid for half of mine already

Wait until Sept 15th, when possibly a greater than 500whr/Kg battery is announced, then an electric GA plane becomes viable. We should know of Mooney's future soon.

That’s what they’ve been saying for more than 50 years. Good luck with that. 

[Mooneymite]

In the discussion of everything eventually "going electric", I found this somewhat controversial video interesting.  I suspect most of you have seen it?

Planet of the Humans

[N201MKTurbo]

So, what would it take to make an electric Mooney.

200 HP is 150 KW, so 75% power is ~ 115KW. 

Lets look at a 5 hour flight with 1/2 hour at 100% power and 4 1/2 hours at 75% power.

75KWH for climb + 517 KWH for cruise, that is 592 KWH.

Using the magic 500WH/KG battery, it would 1184 KG of batteries or 2600 Lbs of batteries to replace 384 Lbs of AVGAS.

Payload wise, it makes a Rocket look good!

Using the California electricity rate of $0.15/KWH that costs $88 for a tank of electricity, not bad...

One thing nobody mentioned, no turbo required! You can climb up till you need a pressure suit and hit the coffin corner. How do propellers work in the thin air above the RSVM airspace?

[MooneyMitch]

I absolutely adore riding in my friends Tesla X.   Ya talk about acceleration!!!!!  Holly cow Batman!!!!

[Danb]

Why not all in with hydrogen power, have to stay in California for a few years, I can’t believe hydrogen hasn’t been fully designed, developed and in service. Think the oil industry..never mind.

[Blue on Top]

On 7/4/2020 at 12:40 PM, 1001001 said:

There is literally an order of magnitude separating the cost of a new Accord from a new Mooney.  Also an order of magnitude separating a used Accord from a used Mooney.  Cars, in most of the US excluding a few city centers, are a necessity.  Airplanes are not.  We buy airplanes because we like the idea of flying, and we have the disposable income to justify it.  Expanding the market is the only way to sell more and, short of miraculously raising everyone's income by an order of magnitude, the price of new aircraft has to come down, or they have to be supplanted by good quality used aircraft.  Frankly, there aren't many people out there who can truly afford to spend a few hundred thousand dollars on an airplane.  In much of the US, houses cost less than a used airplane, much less a new one.

Bottom line for me, is if a company like Mooney wants to survive, it has to make an "Accord" -- something like a 201 or Encore with updated avionics, basic interior, lightened up, and with minimal accessories.  No need for your only models to be an Ovation Ultra and an Acclaim Ultra.  What you need is a modernized 201 and a modernized Encore.  Give people value options that undercut the Cirrus price structure significantly.  Grab the people who are are in the used Cirrus market or, who are at the bottom end of the new Cirrus market.  Poach the customers that Cirrus doesn't cater to anyway.

@1001001  New airplanes aren't sold to $100 hamburger, disposable income people.  They are a business tools.  Always have been; always will be.  And for wealthy people to save time.  Thanks for reinforcing my point about the price delta between old and new products.

Ironically, your "bottom line" is what I have previously posted.  I agree with you!  

But, you have me thinking more about what all y'all are talking about with the Marketing portion.  Some companies are better at marketing to everyone (even though they can't afford a new airplane), but others only cater to ones that can afford the purchase.  I can say from experience at Oshkosh, though, one never knows who can afford the purchase.  Be nice to everyone!

Edited July 5, 2020 by Blue on Top

[Blue on Top]

23 hours ago, cliffy said:

I thought the GARA only kicked in after 18 years from manufacture?

@cliffy  It didn't do what it was supposed to do.  Yes, 18 years from the manufacture of that part.  Lawyers found a way around it.

[MooneyMitch]

2 hours ago, salty said:

. We should know of Mooney's future soon.

I’m locking on to this......Go Mooney.......

[N201MKTurbo]

11 minutes ago, Danb said:

Why not all in with hydrogen power, have to stay in California for a few years, I can’t believe hydrogen hasn’t been fully designed, developed and in service. Think the oil industry..never mind.

The problem is hydrogen isn’t a fuel, it is an energy storage medium. There are no hydrogen mines or wells. You have to make it, probably from and with fossils fuels. It will never de cheap.

Even as a storage medium it has problems. It isn’t very dense, even liquid has less energy per gallon then AVGAS. A liquid dewar is hard to make light and they all need maintenance eventually. It would be hard to keep the vacuum space leak free in an airplane bouncing around in turbulence. After the vacuum goes away the liquid will be gone in a few days and even if it’s perfect, you will probably loose 1/2 your fuel every month. If you wanted to use compressed gas, you would need something like 20 or more bottles the size of the big oxygen bottles. Where are you going to put those? 

If you do somehow find a place for all the hydrogen, forget an internal combustion engine! Get a fuel cell and go electric. The fuel cell will make the rest of the airplane look cheap, but we are dreaming.... right? 

[MooneyMitch]

25 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

The fuel cell will make the rest of the airplane look cheap, but we are dreaming.... right? 

“Remember........ Dreams Come True”.... Disneyland! 

[Blue on Top]

All Y'all type way the heck too fast!  I think that I have caught up with the electric airplane conversation and transferred it all to a new thread entitled, "Electric Mooney".  Please make new posts in that thread.  Thanks!  -Ron

[M016576]

5 hours ago, cliffy said:

The bottom line?  The power has to come from somewhere!  Dino power or?

The wind don't blow but about 2/3 of the time for windmills

The sun don't shine 1/2 the time

The wind don't blow sometimes at night! 

There's only so many hydro-plants out there.  There ain't gonna be any more ever built due to environmentalists!

So where does that leave us? Dino Juice for the foreseeable future. 

Nuke plants or Nat Gas (or straight up oil).  That’s the only way under the current limitations that the country could conceivably create enough electric power to go “full electric” with all our vehicles.

The visions of “all-green” electric power are not currently realistic.  I’m not sure they ever will be.

as for AvGas- it’s hard to best how much energy per LB you’ve got tucked away in a gallon of avgas/jetA.  Which is why it works so well for an airplane... where weight drives every consideration.

a straight up electric plane is not really feasible if you want it to haul a load (have to carry all those battery packs).  I like the hybrid idea... something like what Hyliion is doing for their class 8 truck drivetrains.  “Trucking” does have some similarities to aircraft...

hyliion’s drivetrains have a small Nat gas fired generator that charge a “small” battery pack.  The battery pack powers the electric motors, and can run for ~25 miles or so in “all electric” mode with the generator off.  With the generator on- you’re limited in range by the amount of Nat gas in the tank... that works out to be about ~1000 miles while hauling an 80000 load.  Only takes about 10 minutes to fill the Nat gas tank.  Compare that to the Tesla One semi... which has to carry (and charge) a massive battery pack.  The “Upgraded” Tesla one has a range of 500 miles, and takes approximately 30 minutes to charge its battery’s.

if I was going to pick an electric power technology to adopt for airplane use- I think it Would be the hybrid solution.