Realistic buying expectations

[LANCECASPER]

1 hour ago, Firebird2xc said:

3) This is where I seem to get a little confused. Vref says a plane needing paint knocks off $6000 in value.  But it costs $10000 to $15000 to paint a plane.  What?

Vref assumes average paint, average interior, mid time engine

[RobertGary1]

Just now, LANCECASPER said:

Vref assumes average paint, average interior, mid time engine

In my experience it doesn't assume it explicitly asks for these item conditions 

-Robert 

[jaylw314]

4 hours ago, Firebird2xc said:

I am specifically looking for information on 201s, 205s, 231s, and 252s.   What's a realistic price range (as current actual owners see it) for those types?  What kind of issues and follow on costs should I realistically expect?

For comparison, I was looking initially for 201's in the $75-90k range, and found 3-4 lemons (both airplanes and buyers).  It was only when I moved into the $90-120k range that the search became more productive.

[Bob - S50]

We did sort of what Jeff suggested.  We made a spreadsheet of several planes we were interested in.  But we started with the asking price.  We then added a cost that was proportional to the hours on the engine.  That is, if an overhaul costs $30,000 with a 2000 hour TBO we would add $15 to the price for every hour on the engine.  Not that it will cost us that, but it helped with the comparison.  We also knew what equipment we wanted in the plane.  IFR GPS, graphic engine monitor, 4 place intercom.  An autopilot would also be nice.  For each item that was missing, we added what we thought it would cost to install that equipment.  Say $12k for the GPS, $5 for the engine monitor, $4k for the audio panel/intercom.  Whatever plane had the lowest total cost was the 'best' deal if it turned out to be as advertised.  We then knew which planes to eliminate and which to consider going to see and get inspected.  We also eliminated the plane if the useful load was less than 950 lbs (we wanted a J).

[KLRDMD]

4 hours ago, Firebird2xc said:

I am specifically looking for information on 201s, 205s, 231s, and 252s.   What's a realistic price range (as current actual owners see it) for those types?

231s will sell between $75k and $150k, 252s between $100k and $200k.

[KSMooniac]

If that's true. Maybe what I really need is more patience.  I might not have done all the homework yet- and the right plane might not even be listed yet.
This is actually very encouraging.  Thank you.

I think this is exactly where you're at today. I think every shopper goes thru the discovery phase and sees how much junk is out there, and every now and then sees a better plane at a premium price and doesn't realize the value initially. After seeing a few of these higher priced planes sell quickly, the picture becomes clearer.

You can refine your wants/needs/must-have list and assign values according to your desires, and soon enough come up with your own valuation tool. Ask if you need more info about the price of a particular widget or upgrade...someone here has done it. Sooner or later your plane will appear, but you need to be ready to pounce. You'll see the value.

An anecdote about my plane...I just installed LED nav/strobes at all 3 points to replace my originals. Originals were not synced, and I wanted that so I ran new wires to all locations since I needed to run sync wire (and rear strobe wire since that didn't exist) anyway. I replaced old knife connectors with modern Deutsch connectors. $1145 (on sale!) for lights plus $125 for wires and connectors. And 15+ hours of my labor to do all that... Figure a shop might do it in 8 hours, so total cost might be $2100-$2300 dollars all-in. Does that add even $1100 (50%) in value to my plane? I doubt it. Would it help me sell it faster? Most definitely. It shows I like improving what I have, reducing weight, increasing reliability, etc. You'll start to see the little things that make good planes stand above the junk.

Sooner or later you'll find a plane that is on the market due to an unexpected upgrade by the previous owner (pretty much the case when I got my J, despite planning on an E or F), or a medical-loss situation, or some other event that doesn't have the plane rotting for years before finally hitting the market.

I just remembered a long time J owner just sold his modernized bird a few months ago since he got Ovation fever. I believe it was a great deal, but at a premium price. There will be others.

You might contact MSC shops and spread the word you're on the hunt. They'll know the good planes that might have owners open to an offer, but otherwise not actively looking to sell. That might be where you find treasure.

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[KLRDMD]

3 hours ago, carusoam said:

7) Going to See the plane in person is next on the list...

I've bought 14 airplanes and have gone to see the plane in person before buying it three times. None of those three were more than an hour GA flight away. Ones further away I never saw in person until they were delivered to me 

[LANCECASPER]

4 minutes ago, RobertGary1 said:

In my experience it doesn't assume it explicitly asks for these item conditions 

-Robert 

What I meant is that if nothing is checked then Vref gives you the standard value without taking into consideration for paint or interior. They take the cost of a paint or interior job ($12000), split it in half ($6000), credit you with that if it's new paint, or they charge you that if it needs paint. On engines they either credit you for hours less than mid-time or charge you for hours more than mid-time.

 

 

[Firebird2xc]

1 hour ago, gsengle said:

You don't get the difference between what vref knocks off for paint, 6k, and the cost of a new paint job? And why those numbers diverge?


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Yes.  If it needs paint, I needs paint.  We're not talking about a touch up.  Why would you not repaint the whole plane?

[steingar]

I've no wisdom to add, but when I was shopping I was shocked at the number of hangar queens, which easily matched the number of aircraft worth examination.

[EricJ]

56 minutes ago, steingar said:

I've no wisdom to add, but when I was shopping I was shocked at the number of hangar queens, which easily matched the number of aircraft worth examination.

Or just neglected, poorly maintained, or misrepresented airplanes.   I looked at one that "needs paint" that was also the most corroded airplane I've ever seen.  Filiform and bubbling paint everywhere.  Nearly everything I checked in the panel was broken or misbehaving in some fashion or other, even though the airplane was priced as though it was in premium condition.   Unfortunately, this is not a rare thing.   It is also why I try to restrict my search to airplanes within range of me being able to personally inspect them.  I don't want to waste time and money on a PPI for something that is clearly a non-starter.

Unfortunately, even the best plans go astray sometimes.   I hope to close on an airplane this week or next that has been a bit of an adventure.
 

Edited August 28, 2017 by EricJ

[DonMuncy]

5 minutes ago, EricJ said:

...   I looked at one that "needs paint" that was also the most corroded airplane I've ever seen.  Filiform and bubbling paint everywhere.  Nearly everything I checked in the panel was broken or misbehaving in some fashion or other, even though the airplane was priced as though it was in premium condition.  

This is really a good thing. It makes your decision easy. The tough ones are the ones which are "priced almost right" and have only "a few things wrong".

[laytonl]

This has basically been said already, look at the advertised prices at All American.  His prices will be relatively close to market value.  Lee

[Godfather]

One problem I have when looking at used planes is mission creep. Top end of the E's and I think why not a J, start looking at great examples of a J and the Eagle looks doable. 

From the comments above you are getting a HUGE range of plane values. It makes it hard to know where to stop. 

[Firebird2xc]

6 hours ago, N6758N said:

I think the most important thing here is that you're not rushing into it. It takes time to find the right airplane, and it seems like you have a pretty good grasp on that concept. There is another thread on here where someone is trying to buy a C' and ignoring the warning signs others are telling them about issues with the airplane. I recently was hired to ferry a cherokee 180 from Dallas to Philly even though I told the owner the airplane did not look good on paper and I strongly recommended he not buy it, but he was stubborn and did it anyways. Now he gets to dump a ton of money into it making it airworthy. So take your time, keep looking get a PPI again and the right airplane will come along. 

Thanks, will do.

[Firebird2xc]

6 hours ago, MB65E said:

Expect less than 1/2 back on the ROI of your upgrades. Buy one that's already been done and pay that price, or build one up to suit yourself and enjoy it. I really think those that are maintaining and upgrading their airplane every year are doing a huge service to the fleet. An object is always at a constant rate of decline, maintaining it only slows that process, upgrading it slows it more. 

-Matt

That's more or less the goal.  I want something I can sustain.  It might sound a little cheesy, but to me airplanes are like living things.  If I'm gonna do this, I'm gonna do it right.  Making sure I don't screw myself on the buy will go a long way towards that.

[Firebird2xc]

2 hours ago, Godfather said:

One problem I have when looking at used planes is mission creep. Top end of the E's and I think why not a J, start looking at great examples of a J and the Eagle looks doable. 

From the comments above you are getting a HUGE range of plane values. It makes it hard to know where to stop. 

I zeroed in on the J model because it's the fastest, most efficient thing around at the given hourly burn rate.  Stepping back to an F cuts performance enough (in my opinion) to make other similarly priced airplanes much more competitive.  I stopped short of a K model because I've read the turbo system in the 231 has a reputation, the 252 is well outside my budget, and my mission doesn't warrant the turbo anyways.

... you're not wrong about the range of values... but if I cut the extremes and venn diagram the rest it gives me an approximate aiming point.  

[Firebird2xc]

6 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

For comparison, I was looking initially for 201's in the $75-90k range, and found 3-4 lemons (both airplanes and buyers).  It was only when I moved into the $90-120k range that the search became more productive.

It would appear I need to cowboy up and follow your example.

[M016576]

6 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

They were likely paying much less than the average owner to get them into a plane, so I have no doubt that they got their money back, and sooner rather than later. The biggest takeaway about that from Jimmy was "you might as well install one now and enjoy using it for a while, because you'll need one to sell the plane eventually."

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That's a great point, and talking to the guys at chief avionics, the line to get ADSb in and out is getting substantial... to move a plane in the next 2-3 years, ADS-B out will probably the next "G430"

[M016576]

15 minutes ago, Firebird2xc said:

It would appear I need to cowboy up and follow your example.

I can tell you what not to do:

dont go to a random place and buy a J for what looks like a steal, with a low time motor and baseline avionics.  Don't get a prebuy inspection done and expect it to catch everything.  Specify, or at least have the inspector tell you what they inspected, not just what they found.  Don't expect to walk away from the first annual lightly, just because the prebuy came back ok.  Especially if you take it to a white floor shop or msc: they WILL find all the problems with the bird.  Now that I think of it: bring your own mechanic, that you plan on using later, for the prebuy: he will tell you what the plane needs in his opinion- and that's worth knowing earlier, rather than later.  

Dont say "I don't need a waas gps, I'll just fly ils's everywhere, or VFR only". That won't happen and you'll end up installing a waas gps anyway and it will be very expensive.

dont say "that hsi/ adi is probably ok". You'll feel the urge to upgrade.

dont say "I don't really care if the autopilot is broke" you'll pay to fix it.

dont say "that paint sucks, but I don't really care". You'll repaint it- also expensive.

if you buy a tricked out J that's well taken care of, it will cost 125-150K.  Possibly more.

anything less than 80K and you'll probably put 10-20K into it either in airworthiness or upgrades within the nadir at 2 years of ownership.

just my (somewhat limited, totally subjective) experience and opinion

 

edit: my second J- this missile- I bought sight unseen, and with no prebuy. And it has been an amazing ride- and way cheaper so far than my first J... the "steal"

Edited August 29, 2017 by M016576

[Firebird2xc]

23 minutes ago, M016576 said:

I can tell you what not to do:

dont go to a random place and buy a J for what looks like a steal, with a low time motor and baseline avionics.  Don't get a prebuy inspection done and expect it to catch everything.  Specify, or at least have the inspector tell you what they inspected, not just what they found.  Don't expect to walk away from the first annual lightly, just because the prebuy came back ok.  Especially if you take it to a white floor shop or msc: they WILL find all the problems with the bird.  Now that I think of it: bring your own mechanic, that you plan on using later, for the prebuy: he will tell you what the plane needs in his opinion- and that's worth knowing earlier, rather than later.  

Dont say "I don't need a waas gps, I'll just fly ils's everywhere, or VFR only". That won't happen and you'll end up installing a waas gps anyway and it will be very expensive.

dont say "that hsi/ adi is probably ok". You'll feel the urge to upgrade.

dont say "I don't really care if the autopilot is broke" you'll pay to fix it.

dont say "that paint sucks, but I don't really care". You'll repaint it- also expensive.

if you buy a tricked out J that's well taken care of, it will cost 125-150K.  Possibly more.

anything less than 80K and you'll probably put 10-20K into it either in airworthiness or upgrades within the nadir at 2 years of ownership.

just my (somewhat limited, totally subjective) experience and opinion

 

edit: my second J- this missile- I bought sight unseen, and with no prebuy. And it has been an amazing ride- and way cheaper so far than my first J... the "steal"

I actually agree with everything you said.  Especially the stuff about instruments.  Now that glass replacements can be had for comparable overhaul cost, vaccuum driven six packs with mechanical gyros are done.  I insist on IFR GPS capability as well.  That's the baseline standard now, in my opinion.

Looks like the "buy once, cry once" adage REALLY applies here.

[gsengle]

Yes.  If it needs paint, I needs paint.  We're not talking about a touch up.  Why would you not repaint the whole plane?

No this is about markets. On average the market chooses not to value the paint at what it costs to do. Meaning there are people that prefer the cheaper plane without new paint. Or who would only buy it for the 6k bump not more. You have to think like a market.


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[ilovecornfields]

I didn't see it mentioned already, but I would talk to a broker and explain your situation. Tim Lundquist at Strategic Aviation and Mark Woods at Delta Aviation were very helpful and both were extremely knowledgeable and professional. They clearly know WAY more than I do about airplanes and what they're worth. I did not have the same positive experiences that other people have reported with All American because every time I spoke with them they would say "make an offer" whereas Mark and Tim both seemed genuinely in finding the best fit for me, even if it wasn't the plane they were trying to sell at the time.

 

[Alan Fox]

You need the help of an experienced broker ,

[ArtVandelay]

11 hours ago, Firebird2xc said:

It would appear I need to cowboy up and follow your example.

you live in Florida, so a turbo is not required.

I couldn't find a J with what I wanted (Im really picky), so I bought the 2nd lowest J on the market, high engine time and the avionics while not entirely broken, all had their issues: radio and jpi had broken display segments, KNS80 overheated, fuel flow knobs were broken). I upgraded, plan on keeping the plane for a long time so losing half my investment if I turn around and sell is not an issue. There was some deferred maintenance that had to be done (landing pucks, gear actuator, mags etc). I did the opposite of what is normally recommended, but it worked for me. But I knew what I wanted, it sounds like you're not really sure, I would spend more time looking until you know what you want:  Buy high, buy low...are you going to finance it, will it be hangered, flying to west coast or just around southeast...etc? As I said before you should go to controller, TAP, etc at least weekly and check every plane, make notes of you like, what you need, what you don't...until then I would save my $...you'll need it.

I would go to http://www.macdonaldaircraft.com/aircraft.htm

He is at your home airport, and has a couple of Mooneys, go take a look. You may decide you really want a $125K airplane...even if you cannot afford it today you'll know what you want.  And if you can afford to buy a $75K airplane today, you will be able to afford the $125K airplane a couple of years from now because you will be saving money you would have spent on the $75K airplane.