Any insight as to why M10 was cancelled?

[Tommy]

We can sit here and speculate all day long - certification cost, competition, manufacturing cost, marketing cost, lack of interest, hostile market, global conflicts, etc etc - there is only one true reason why M10 program was terminated: 

It's simply not profitable (or at least according to Mooney International's forecast).

It's where Mooney will go from here that matters.

But one thing for sure the Chinese will drop the whole Mooney venture if it's not making money any sooner (there is no love here)... 

And parachute, parachute, parachute.....

 

[Tommy]

On 4/11/2017 at 3:03 AM, zaitcev said:

On the other hand, here's what Paul Bertorelli mentioned in SnF postmortem today:

"I have observed that despite this focus on Europe’s Aero and the glimmer of hope for the Asian market, every sales executive or CEO says the same thing: Most of their sales are in North America. Vivek Saxena of Mooney said this and so did Daher’s Nic Chabbert. According to GAMA, 70 percent of piston shipments were to North America in 2016, while 10 percent each went to Europe and Asia."

Apparently they designed M10 for the Asian training market first, but then realized that there's very little money to be made there. And such as there is, already spoken for by government-sponsored manufacturers (such as KAI in Korea and AVIC in China). The realization that the Chinese GA market is perpetually arriving and never arrives is what triggered the rethink.

It will take off eventually but not in the manner drummed up by these GA aircraft manufacturers. Remember China is never a aviation-rich nation and recreational flying is seen as rich man's hobby only. It's not much of a status and, in fact, sneered upon, consider millions are still living below poverty line. The transportation system is vast and expansive. And there are plenty of high speed rail in China. (None in US, strangely). Flying for money. Yes. Flying for fun or commute. No.

Another major issue is that most Chinese, perhaps rightly so, prefers those pilots that were trained in US / Australia / Europe and not their own country. Many Asian airlines know about this "image" thing. Ad campaign by Cathay, Singapore, Eva Air etc frequently feature an old white man as the captain. Western planes, Western system, Western pilots. Simple. It will need a paradigm shift and a massive shortage of pilots for changes in this perception. 

So try to put yourself in the shoes of a start up flight school in China. All the major airlines have established training program with overseas flight school and are actively recruiting experienced foreign pilots. So you're left with either

1) teenagers who failed to get on the cadet program but really want to fly. One problem: none of them can afford it

2) teenagers who failed to get on the cadet program but have wealthy parents - they go overseas.

2) wealthy business people who want to fly recreationally - these will be the bulk of business. But they won't do it unless many of their wealthy friends are start doing it - ie it becomes a status thing. At the moment, the real status thing is to own a jet.

Not to mention the airspace is generally much more hostile and there is no friendly GA airports to speak of where one can get some $100 burgers...

It all comes down to the fact that unlike US, Australia, and Europe, China isn't and never was an aviation-rich nation. 

And if you don't have a track record of training lots of pilots, you are not going to score a major teaching contract with the airlines. And if you don't have a big juicy contract, it's hard to justify buying brand new planes when you can ferry plenty of second hand ones these days...

 

 

 

[Tommy]

8 hours ago, DonMuncy said:

I've never blocked anyone's posts before. Can someone tell me how to do that.

Isn't it interesting to see the people who want to ignore me are the ones that are stalking me, watching my every move, ready to pounce...

Not a single bit of contribution to this thread but then when I made a tongue-in-cheek sarcastic comment.

*BOO*! 

 

[Hank]

4 hours ago, Tommy said:

Isn't it interesting to see people who want to ignore me are the ones that are stalking me, watching my every move, ready to pounce...

Not a single bit of contribution to this thread but then when I made a tongue-in-cheek sarcastic comment.

*BOO*!

 

This is exactly why I am against a "raving" section, because the bad feelings generated spill over into the rest of the forum. Apparently some hard feelings were created in the two United fhreads and the follow-on "why were the United threads locked?" thread, and here they are at play elsewhere.

Put in a Raving section and this will happen much more often . . . Not good for the site or the exchange of information between members. Just another reason to stay civil.

[Tommy]

54 minutes ago, Hank said:

This is exactly why I am against a "raving" section, because the bad feelings generated spill over into the rest of the forum. Apparently some hard feelings were created in the two United fhreads and the follow-on "why were the United threads locked?" thread, and here they are at play elsewhere.

Put in a Raving section and this will happen much more often . . . Not good for the site or the exchange of information between members. Just another reason to stay civil.

Yes, people do need to grow up a bit. But now that I have so many stalkers I feel like a celebrity! I quite liked the attention and not the slightest perturbed by it. So don't worry Hank!

It is funny, nevertheless, how some people don't do what they preach, taking moral high ground one moment then hurling insults and picking fights the next. And those that are most often offended are the ones that love to offend...

Back to our scheduled broadcast. Sorry Robert, you have to excuse my stalkers...  

[MyNameIsNobody]

On 4/16/2017 at 0:20 AM, Tommy said:

We can sit here and speculate all day long - certification cost, competition, manufacturing cost, marketing cost, lack of interest, hostile market, global conflicts, etc etc - there is only one true reason why M10 program was terminated: 

It's simply not profitable (or at least according to Mooney International's forecast).

It's where Mooney will go from here that matters.

But one thing for sure the Chinese will drop the whole Mooney venture if it's not making money any sooner (there is no love here)... 

And parachute, parachute, parachute.....

 

Is Continental making money?  Aren't they building a new state of the art plant?

[MyNameIsNobody]

On 4/16/2017 at 0:20 AM, Tommy said:

We can sit here and speculate all day long - certification cost, competition, manufacturing cost, marketing cost, lack of interest, hostile market, global conflicts, etc etc - there is only one true reason why M10 program was terminated: 

It's simply not profitable (or at least according to Mooney International's forecast).

It's where Mooney will go from here that matters.

But one thing for sure the Chinese will drop the whole Mooney venture if it's not making money any sooner (there is no love here)... 

And parachute, parachute, parachute.....

 

I don't know the Chinese "ever-emerging" GA market.  What you state seems plausible to me.  If there is no market in China for the M10 then indeed, why build it?  Perhaps an expensive exercise to design/engineer/build/test with much fanfare and say "psyche" just showing we could.  Agree that the chute is huge marketing advantage for Cirrus as well as their cabin design.  There is a glut of used airframes with no pilots in US to fill demand.  There are stagnant wages and shrinking not growing upper middle class that would be a potential market.  Diesel is not the answer for power plants with abundant reasonable fuel prices in U.S.  The U.S. Has so much invested in infrastructure to support GA.  It is a shame that the price of entry to pursue piloting an aircraft is so high.  I have no answers and agree that "Where Mooney Goes next" is what really matters.  They can not likely afford another M-10 or pressurized money sucking drain with no sales at end of tunnel.

 

Will somebody make a damn battery that is lighter and stronger already?  GA and the world are waiting...Git 'r done.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2017 by MyNameIsNobody

[M20F]

What I can't understand is why Lycoming can't sell an IO-360 arguably the most prevelant piston engine out there for a reasonable price.  A major overhaul is $20-30K at best and one would think if they had a $20K price point they would sell a mountain of engines that cost basically nothing to make. 

[MyNameIsNobody]

41 minutes ago, M20F said:

What I can't understand is why Lycoming can't sell an IO-360 arguably the most prevelant piston engine out there for a reasonable price.  A major overhaul is $20-30K at best and one would think if they had a $20K price point they would sell a mountain of engines that cost basically nothing to make. 

How about an environment where a "new" engine with FADEC and greater power and efficiency in a lighter package that is easier to service and has longer life is not an obstacle but a reality?  I want that business environment. 

Alas, Big G and Lawyers rule the world...

[MyNameIsNobody]

50 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Everyone here seems to be forgetting how the Chinese work. We are talking about a communist country. Everything is not motivated by profit as it is here in the west. Their government sets strategic goals that are updated every five years, and then funding is allocated accordingly to achieve those goals. The exact allocations and funding chanels are not made public but their economic priorities and strategic objectives certainly are. Google "China Five Year Plan" and you'll start to better understand how their industry works. If they have set as a goal to bring GA to China you can pretty much bet that it will eventually happen. In fact a blind man could see that it is happening right now through all of the US GA acquisitions that have taken place in the past decade. 

Jim

Kind of why I posted about Continental...

Nobody knows.

[M20F]

Just now, MyNameIsNobody said:

How about an environment where a "new" engine with FADEC and greater power and efficiency in a lighter package that is easier to service and has longer life is not an obstacle but a reality?  I want that business environment. 

Alas, Big G and Lawyers rule the world...

I would happy to just get a 50yr old design that can be cranked out for nothing at a reasonable price. 

[MyNameIsNobody]

Just now, M20F said:

I would happy to just get a 50yr old design that can be cranked out for nothing at a reasonable price. 

Happy is a "state of mind".

Me happy.

I know until lawyers and Big G get out of the way it is not happening.  I can't control it and know it will not ever be.  Resolution and happiness achieved.

[ArtVandelay]

I would happy to just get a 50yr old design that can be cranked out for nothing at a reasonable price. 

1. Define reasonable price?
2. Remember we have a glut of 50 year old designs in the used market.

[M20F]

1 minute ago, teejayevans said:

1. Define reasonable price?
2. Remember we have a glut of 50 year old designs in the used market.

$20k 

[Tommy]

9 hours ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Everyone here seems to be forgetting how the Chinese work. We are talking about a communist country. Everything is not motivated by profit as it is here in the west. Their government sets strategic goals that are updated every five years, and then funding is allocated accordingly to achieve those goals. The exact allocations and funding chanels are not made public but their economic priorities and strategic objectives certainly are. Google "China Five Year Plan" and you'll start to better understand how their industry works. If they have set as a goal to bring GA to China you can pretty much bet that it will eventually happen. In fact a blind man could see that it is happening right now through all of the US GA acquisitions that have taken place in the past decade. 

Jim

That only addresses the supply side of equation. Sure the government has a grand plan scooping up all the brand named but falteting manufacturers to China and try to poise itself as a true industrial nation (you can't call yourself one if you are not making planes and rockets).

However the demand side is not addressed (sure one way is to bring the price down but the cost is still prohibitive to many Chinese) 

But most importantly China is never an aviation craze country with almost no GA infrastructures like friendly GA airports,  unretriscted airspace, and decent flight schools, the demand for GA aircraft will be small if any.

(Such a pitty because I can imagine how beautiful and wonderful it would be to fly across China.)

And the only time when Chinese will buy a shiny useless (for what it's advertised to do) expensive piece of toy is when it's a status thing. For Mooney it means marketing it like a luxury exclusive Swiss mechanical watch. Hey it's not very good at telling time but everyone knows you are rich. In fact, many watch makers are now unashamedly pitching that angle, resulting in a lot of rich people late for their business meeting. Forget about the performances, the convenience, and the freedom for the moment.

But then again its not like you can bring your plane everywhere you go and Facebook is banned in China.

Don't get me wrong, I am pretty certain that there are plenty of Chinese longing for the freedom of flying (in absolute if not relative numbers) but they are also realists and pragmatists. 

Worldwide it's also a shrinking market made harder by the foreign regulations and the stigma of Made-in-China.

 

 

[Shadrach]

On April 15, 2017 at 1:59 PM, Hyett6420 said:

My point is that to only focus on the USA market I think is blind.  If citrus , piper and Cessna all thought it was worth turning up for at Fired rick and shaft him why didn't Mooney. Why was the European Mooney rep dressed in a Piper shirt selling Pipers!  

You say there are 34 registered Mooneys in the U.K., how many piper arrows, 182s and more importantly Cirruses?  A lot.  As for GA traffic there is  tons in the UK listen to 132.8 nextime you are in London and you will hear it.  All outside of London real due to alight clear in case of engine failure.  But if you didn't see Any I know a really good optician for some new glasses for you.  My local airfield has 9k movements a year restricted by local by laws otherwise they would have 20k plus and that is 14 miles north of st Paul's  

As for being built in the USA, I got that from Oshkosh 2015 where I sat in the tent and listened to the Chinese guy talking about jobs and hearing the cheers when he mentioned them in the USA and no cheers when he mentioned China.  Listening in here and everyone talks about how great it is they are built in Kerville.  It isn't a UK thing it is a USA outward perception thing   For example how often on your nightly news bulletins do you talk about extrnal (outside USA) affairs   In the U.K. It is done daily, i can count on the fingers of one hand how many times I have seen it in the US.  So that's all I'm saying in the matter before it gets political and non Mooney ish.

Mooneys sell well in Germany, Austria and Switzerland historically, fried rick and shaft him is in Germany. QED.   If you are not there you can't sell. Im not saying sell to the UK I'm saying sell to the 500 million in Europe. 

If you think somehow that Americans being pleased that an iconinic American aviation manufacturer staying in its home town is nationalistic or misplaced patriotism, then I think it has more to do with your own perceptions and politics than it does those folks clapping over retained or gained jobs.  Your notion that this sentiment is limited to the US is laughable.  As if Britons weren't celebrating in places like Birmingham, Halewood and Solihull when Tata's cash infusion to Jaguar Land Rover meant more British jobs and cemented, at least for the near future, that those iconic British brands would be built in Britain.  Indeed your assertion is not unique, I've met armchair fauxphisticates from all over the world that like to portray Americans as uniquely provincial (in the pejorative). We're not, and the evidence is there for anyone that cares to look around every once in a while and maybe talk to people outside the major metro areas of any country.  I theorize that the difference is that in America these "provincial types" can actually afford aircraft or at least a pilot certificate. So then, perhaps Sun n Fun is a more diverse group of people than what you're accustomed to associating with in your home country. It's the only way I can rationalize someone from Europe (home of PDO, PDI and TSG) claiming that only Americans care about where things are made.

Your comments were both ignorant and condescending. I admit that I too have made more than my fair share of ignorant and condescending comments. However, I do at least attempt to confine myself to one or the other as the combo really doesn't look good on anyone.

[FloridaPilots]

On 4/12/2017 at 10:53 AM, FloridaPilots said:

Newbie here,

I would like to give my perspective if I may.  I'm currently learning how to fly with a bunch of my buddies.  I'm the only one that knows about Mooney the others know only Cirrus. Why do you think that is?  Marketing.  The reason why I know about Mooney is because I saw a fellow pilot with one and asked him about it. We know about Cirrus because sales people put full color brochures at the flight school, hats, water bottles..etc

Mooney has to revamp marketing and stick with what they're good at which is a fast and fuel efficient bird.

I would also like to throw out there. Cirrus is now working on the student market as well (Cutting into the Cessna market share).  You can learn how to fly in a Cirrus at some flight schools: (Source: http://tampabayaviation.com/airplane-flight-training/ ) Once a student learns in a Cirrus and gets good at flying an IO-550 He/She is not going to want to go back to a 200 HP Cessna 172 for ownership or something "under powered".

 

Just my newbie thoughts

[Shadrach]

2 hours ago, FloridaPilots said:

I would also like to throw out there. Cirrus is now working on the student market as well (Cutting into the Cessna market share).  You can learn how to fly in a Cirrus at some flight schools: (Source: http://tampabayaviation.com/airplane-flight-training/ ) Once a student learns in a Cirrus and gets good at flying an IO-550 He/She is not going to want to go back to a 200 HP Cessna 172 for ownership or something "under powered".

 

Just my newbie thoughts

Most Cirrus training that I've seen takes place in 200hp (IO360) SR20. There is no benefit to a training in a SR22. It's a waste of fuel.

if the student owns an SR22 then sure, but not much economy for the flight school business model.