Ovation musings

[M016576]

6 hours ago, V1VRV2 said:

I bought my airplane in September... 2002 2385 hrs,  TKS, A/C with a new Continental motor w 285 hrs, a redone interior, 3 blade Top Prop, factory O2, WAAS and was well maintained for $260,000. I spent 6mo looking for Ovations before I settled on this one. From my experience shopping the market the asking price is too high.

You have a beautiful plane and from the looks of it you know what you want and have the willpower to wait until you find it at the right price.  Even in the last 5 months though inventory has dried up even further... and prices have gone up too.  I’m not saying I think the ovation posted here is “worth it”.... I’m just saying that I think it will sell at the listed price- mainly due to lack of options on the market.  Last time I saw the market this tight was when I was shopping for my first J in 2007.... a run out ‘80 J was going for 80-95K.  Two years later those same hulls were selling for 65...  just another bump up in the market!

[ilovecornfields]

Just how ridiculous are the Ovation prices right now?! I might know someone with a 2000 TKS 310 HP conversion with a pretty nice panel who would be willing to part with it for ridiculous sums of money.

[M016576]

Just now, ilovecornfields said:

Just how ridiculous are the Ovation prices right now?! I might know someone with a 2000 TKS 310 HP conversion with a pretty nice panel who would be willing to part with it for ridiculous sums of money.

What sold for 175 about 9 months ago is listed for 250+ right  now... don’t take my word for it... just check controller....

your plane easily fits in the 250+ category

Edited March 25, 2021 by M016576

[NJMac]

There has been an obvious increase in pricing, that's for sure. 

What I'd like to know is if this is the "new normal" or if there will be a future, downward adjustment? 

Personally, I believe the cheap financing and helicopter money is causing this.  Takeaway: helicopter money is bad for airplane purchasing. 

[carusoam]

nothing lasts forever...
 

Oddly... there are no market prices...

There are individual ships, and individual prices... and individual buyers...

Prices can change at the drop of a hat...

hats drop every time two people arrive to purchase one ship...

With everything for sale, available to everyone, visible to everyone with access to the internet...

prices can run...

free money everywhere kind of supports it... more eligible buyers everywhere...

fuel prices not scaring everyone helps...

Inflation often disrupts things...

Rising interest rates put a damper on things...

Rising taxes takes some of the fun out...

Rising fuel costs really cuts into prices...

increasing unemployment is bad for the market...

decreasing unemployment is good for the market...

is there FOMO involved when supply goes towards zero... a sign that there is some emotion involved when buying a machine...

There used to be fear in buying something you couldn’t sell...

There is one limit...  there is still one near brand new Ovation for sale at the factory...

So....

Keep the ridiculous number under the price of a new O from the factory...

You may strike a bargain...

It will be worth it to both parties, buyer and seller...

nothing says limited supply like the supply not coming back anytime soon...

 

For anyone that thinks a price of a machine is too high...

While you own one already... What you might be saying is...   ha ha ha... I got mine for less...

There is no added value for stating... that price is too high... it doesn’t reflect well on the sayer...

There are always going to be good days in the market and bad days in the market...

 

Get in while the getting is good...

The last time we saw Mooney prices run like this... we did, it was real... 2007.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel....   Is that a train coming?

 

PP thoughts only, not an economist... adages we have all heard before...

Best regards,

-a-

[Tim Jodice]

21 hours ago, hypertech said:

If they do a prebuy for you, make sure you ask them to pull a lifter or two and look at the cam.

Pull all of them. it is not uncommon for just one or two to be bad. I did it to a Baron I bought years ago and 1 out of 24 was comming apart.

[Tim Jodice]

8 hours ago, Niko182 said:

The sitting is bad for the plane, and I would guess is probably very bad for the weeping wing. From what I understand from other owners of TKS systems, It seems as if the system should be run every now and then, and for a plane that has been out of annual approaching 4 years, that can't be great for the TKS system. However I don't have TKS so that just happens to be speculation.

Your speculation is 100% accurate in my experience. The past 2 owners of my plane never used the system and because of that it took a lot of work to make it work right. By right I mean weeping evenly no just horizontally but vertically across the radius.

Most people I have seen simply turn it on and see stuff fall on the floor and all is well. It proves that your pump works but even then it might not be up to pressure/flow spec. My filter looked like it came out of a boat, water line and all.

I sent the pump to cav and they had never serviced it. It was installed in 1988. They suggest 5 years or 2000 hours and I think that is a bit to soon in regard to calendar time but 32 years....

CAV recommends turning it on at least once a month.  A guy who goes to the same A&P as me owns an Ovation said he turns it on weekly. He said the more frequent the less run time it takes to wet the panels.

[V1VRV2]

When I bought my Ovation back in Sept. one of the appeals was that I could get a FIKI Ovation with A/C for $260K. A comparable Bonanza would have been $150,000 more. I didn't understand why Bonanza’s were priced so high. I guess it’s all perspective. The planes only worth what someone is willing to pay. I would be priced out of the Ovation market now if the price for this plane is accurate and would have to have gotten a lesser/older model. Good to hear my depreciating asset is an appreciating asset.

[NJMac]

26 minutes ago, V1VRV2 said:

When I bought my Ovation back in Sept. one of the appeals was that I could get a FIKI Ovation with A/C for $260K. A comparable Bonanza would have been $150,000 more. I didn't understand why Bonanza’s were priced so high. I guess it’s all perspective. The planes only worth what someone is willing to pay. I would be priced out of the Ovation market now if the price for this plane is accurate and would have to have gotten a lesser/older model. Good to hear my depreciating asset is an appreciating asset.

What's fun is seeing 3 year old Cirrus planes sell used with a few hundred hours for same price they were new. 

The Ovations are now in spitting distance of similar vintage Cirrus planes. 

[MediumSpeedAluminumTubing]

I called on this plane and reviewed the logs. It has good features such as NDH, FIKI, and the nice paint/interior. Unfortunately, the plane hasn't been flown regularly in the last ten years and is out of annual. The owner does not plan on getting the plane into annual before selling. This might be a good project for a prospective owner who is an A&P. 

[V1VRV2]

Speculation.... plane failed last annual. Real money has to be spent to fix issue. Only reason I can think of to not have an annual in the log book. 

[MediumSpeedAluminumTubing]

14 minutes ago, V1VRV2 said:

Speculation.... plane failed last annual. Real money has to be spent to fix issue. Only reason I can think of to not have an annual in the log book. 

I don't want to say anything too negative regarding the plane as I'm relatively new here and don't want to offend anyone. However, I do agree with your assessment that there is likely a substantial issue preventing the plane from being signed off by a reputable MSC.

I can only think of two reasons for not spending a few AMU's on an annual to help sell a 200k plane. First, the seller does not have the time or money to annual the plane. Second, there is a significant airworthiness issue that would cost tens of thousands to fix. I think that both are likely in this scenario.

In my mind, it is most likely that not flying or maintaining the plane for ten years caused some sort of issue with engine corrosion. Not a big deal if the plane's list price reflects possessing a core value engine. 

I've also been looking at light twins such as PA-30's and Travel Air's. It seems like oftentimes sellers are unable to reconcile that low or mid-time engines are not worth VREF even if the power plant is older than the minimum age required to obtain an ATP and has documented issues.

My post is obviously speculative. Furthermore, I do not mean to be judgemental. I just hope that no one pays full-retail for a project. It seems like MooneySpace members tend to (appropriately) exercise more caution in plane buying than the average pilot. 

[MIm20c]

There are a lot of planes out there not getting the love they deserve. This one will require some catch-up maintenance but I don’t think the owner is trying to hide anything. I think he just lost interest (medical) years ago and couldn’t let it go for whatever reason.  With all the unknowns the price might be high but things like upgrading to a waas unit, extra servos, and adsb are cheap right now unless you’re swinging for the fences panel wise. 
 

Probably over half the engines installed in the fleet are over 20 years since overhaul. This one might surprise the buyer and last many more years. 

[NJMac]

Should I email thread this link to the seller and invite them to partake?  Lol

[Hilbilly]

5 minutes ago, NJMac said:

Should I email thread this link to the seller and invite them to partake?  Lol

From the looks of it, not sure the seller has heard of this "internet thing"

[MediumSpeedAluminumTubing]

The plane is represented by a broker. He's a nice guy and I appreciate the time he spent on the phone with me. I did not mean to imply that the plane is explicitly knowingly misrepresented. If the plane hasn't had a thorough annual in years, then you don't know what you don't know in regards to specific issues. However, I have the feeling that the owner knows that the plane would take a good amount of coin to get a sign-off. 

I want nothing more than to be proven wrong and have to eat crow. I hope that the owner gets an annual (to include borescopy on the lower) from a MSC. It seems like a clean airframe with good features; just what I'm looking for.

[Hilbilly]

46 minutes ago, MediumSpeedAluminumTubing said:

The plane is represented by a broker. He's a nice guy and I appreciate the time he spent on the phone with me. I did not mean to imply that the plane is explicitly knowingly misrepresented. If the plane hasn't had a thorough annual in years, then you don't know what you don't know in regards to specific issues. However, I have the feeling that the owner knows that the plane would take a good amount of coin to get a sign-off. 

I want nothing more than to be proven wrong and have to eat crow. I hope that the owner gets an annual (to include borescopy on the lower) from a MSC. It seems like a clean airframe with good features; just what I'm looking for.

I agree with the above, I spoke with the broker as well on Monday, he did explain some of the background and the low use and I do not think he was trying to hide anything.

I still think this might end up a good buy, as long as you fully know what you are getting into and budget or get a reduction for an engine OH. However I am going to pass on this one.

As Steve said there is better Ovations out there.

A very funny part of the psychology of airplane purchase (and I include myself in this) is how we end up looking for "a deal" and can haggle over the price. Only to end up spending $50k in the first year or two after purchase to "get it right".  Meanwhile we discounted the "prime example" that was $50k more expensive than the "deal/bargain".

Hilgard

 

 

[carusoam]

9 hours ago, NJMac said:

What's fun is seeing 3 year old Cirrus planes sell used with a few hundred hours for same price they were new. 

The Ovations are now in spitting distance of similar vintage Cirrus planes. 

Were you around for the 70s?

People were in a rush to buy things like boats...

The new price of the same boat went up every year... significantly...

So the price of the used boat would sell for more than you paid for it, but less than the new boat...

It very much appeared like you had an investment...

We all know buying a machine that doesn’t earn its keep... declines in value...

And is a depreciating asset...

Throw on inflation.... the machine goes up in price from when you bought it...  but, adjusted for inflation... it still loses value...

 

The cool thing... not everybody understands the value/price/affect of time calculations... the time value of money...

you can convince people you are a financial genius because you bought a plane, used it for several years, then sold it for significantly more than what you paid...

Technically, not much has changed... inflation is a drag...

 

PP thoughts only, not an economist...

Best regards,

-a-

[MIm20c]

Well the plane is pending after a week, probably wasn’t overpriced by too much in the current market...

[Hilbilly]

Interesting, hope it works out for the potential new owner.

[M016576]

Like I mentioned before: It’s a sellers market right now.  Tons of demand for Mooneys, particularly in the higher end range from a subjective scroll through controller and aso from time to time.  For the past 10 years or so there have typically been between 100-130 mooneys listed.  For the past 6 months it’s been half that at most.  How many “help me find an ovation” threads have their been.. 3 that I’ve seen.. and I haven’t been on this site all that much during the last year.  Normally we’d see 1 every 2-3 years.

I wasn’t joking when I said earlier that ovations that were going for 175 a year ago are now going for 250 plus.... there’s no supply and demand has gone up significantly. It’s not a cheap time to be getting into a Mooney, that’s for sure.

[MediumSpeedAluminumTubing]

Price was listed as "negotiable". Speaking optimistically, I hope it works out for all parties involved. Speaking candidly, I know it will work out for whatever shop gets to do 20k plus in wrenching to bring it back into annual. 

[M016576]

59 minutes ago, MediumSpeedAluminumTubing said:

Price was listed as "negotiable". Speaking optimistically, I hope it works out for all parties involved. Speaking candidly, I know it will work out for whatever shop gets to do 20k plus in wrenching to bring it back into annual. 

20K? That’s not the worst annual I’ve heard of around here....

[LANCECASPER]

On 3/30/2021 at 10:08 PM, MediumSpeedAluminumTubing said:

Price was listed as "negotiable". Speaking optimistically, I hope it works out for all parties involved. Speaking candidly, I know it will work out for whatever shop gets to do 20k plus in wrenching to bring it back into annual. 

Not being in annual is not a deal breaker. There are a lot of reasons for that - loss of interest in the airplane due to other issues in a person 's life is the main one.

A good pre-buy will identify the airworthy items and go from there. The owner that previously owned my airplane had passed away after a long illness.  I participated in a pre-buy with a shop on the field where it was based. After I was satisfied and we struck an agreement, the shop arranged a ferry permit so I could get it back to Texas to get it an annual from someone I had faith and confidence in (wouldn't hold the airplane hostage). It all worked out. All systems on the airplane don't automatically go bad the day the airplane's annual expires. I knew after spending a few hours going through the logs and seeing it with the belly pans and inspection covers off I was confident I wouldn't have a huge annual. I knew it would be costly since I would be catching up on a few things (shock discs, oxygen tank etc.) but I budgeted for it and turned out to be $1000 less than I had planned. Once I asked the right questions and felt comfortable with it I looked at it being out of annual as an opportunity not a problem - it eliminated virtually all of the other would-be buyers. I wouldn't have done this had I not done all of my homework, seen the airplane with my own eyes and participated in the pre-buy.

[ZuluZulu]

On 3/25/2021 at 7:02 PM, Hilbilly said:

A very funny part of the psychology of airplane purchase (and I include myself in this) is how we end up looking for "a deal" and can haggle over the price. Only to end up spending $50k in the first year or two after purchase to "get it right".  Meanwhile we discounted the "prime example" that was $50k more expensive than the "deal/bargain".

Hilgard

I like your point here. I know a new pilot eagerly shopping for a plane but he told me he can’t pull the trigger unless he feels like he got a great deal. Must have “saved money” on it, negotiated well, got excess value, etc. As a result he’s talking himself into taking on projects and explaining to me how just because an engine has only flown 100 hours 20 years after overhaul and sat in a barn for the last decade doesn’t *necessarily* mean it’s bad, and also he can get it for $X less! I told him I think you have the wrong goals: you should be looking for the right airplane, not the best “value.” Even if you pay top dollar doing that you’ll still feel like you saved money if it rewards you with years of reliable, mostly trouble-free service. But he still wants the best “deal.”