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Cheaper fuel for the summer?

MIm20c

By MIm20c
in Miscellaneous Aviation Talk

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MIm20c Grand Master

MIm20c

Posted
Posted

With all the doom and gloom talk these days I try to look at the positives. We should hopefully (depending on when they mix 100LL) see some cheaper fuel this summer. I’m hopeful for $3.50 to make its way back to Michigan. Anyone else?

  • Like 1
Rwsavory Mentor

Rwsavory

Posted
Posted

Auto gas prices already below $2 here and in Texas. Kennett MO 100LL is $3.30.  But I’m not sure there are going to be a lot of ways to “enjoy” these prices for the next several months.  Be careful what you wish for. 

  • Like 1
Davidv Mentor

Davidv

Posted
Posted

In my experience it takes a lot longer for 100LL to come down because the volume used is so much lower.  The prices we are seeing at the 100LL pumps right now are probably still reflective of a raw material cost near $50.  I have no idea how low 100LL will go since it's a small and somewhat monopolistic market but we should see some good benefits when they start distributing it using $30 oil.

WilliamR Community Regular

WilliamR

Posted
Posted

On average, lower oil prices takes 4-6 weeks to make through the pipeline, refinery and ultimately to the pump.  Given demand is lower (only to be outpaced by an increase in supply), the significantly lower oil prices won't be fully reflected in the pump price for a few weeks.  Avgas demand and production is significantly less and chunky.  So, as Davidv said, who knows when we will see that lower cost.  The upside is that even when demand recovers (hopefully sometime in the summer) there will likely still be significant oversupply depressing prices.

Note, anyone who says they can predict the price of fuel more than a month or two out has no idea.  OPEC (Saudi Arabia) could easily change their mind tomorrow and restrict supply swinging the price of oil the other way.  Note, many US upstream companies drop out of the market when oil is sustainably below $45/barrel.  So, there will likely be some restriction in US supply soon.

 

W

carusoam Grand Master

carusoam

Posted
Posted

OPEC has lost the ability to snap change their minds...

Somebody in Russia put the pressure on that...

It is a three way competition and prices are going lower as the pumps are running...

It may be an attack on the shale producers... to drive them into closing...

The highest cost producer runs out of ability to sell for more than their cost...

The Saudis seem to have the lowest cost...

 

War on oil production...

war on Covid-19...

War on stocks and bonds...

War at the dinner table... lots of people staying in...

World wide stress...

Best regards,

-a-

Mooneymite Grand Master

Mooneymite

Posted
Posted
On 3/16/2020 at 7:08 PM, MIm20c said:

We should hopefully (depending on when they mix 100LL) see some cheaper fuel this summer. I’m hopeful for $3.50 to make its way back to Michigan. Anyone else?

 

Avgas today..jpg

Danb Grand Master

Danb

Posted
Posted

It cost $4.91 at Summit Middletown De two days ago,  Wilmington 12 miles away has three FBOs charging between $5.59 and $5.99.

KLRDMD Grand Master

KLRDMD

Posted
Posted
Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 8,500 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.59446/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.85060/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.01060/gal       

 

Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 4,000 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.66891/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.92505/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.08505/gal       

 

Product 100LL Aviation Gasoline  Quantity 3,000 Gallons 
Terminal Phillips AZ Phoenix UNBD  Effective Wednesday, March 18, 2020

 

      100LL Aviation Gasoline $ 2.71577/gal       
      Federal Excise Tax 0.19300/gal       
      Federal LUST 0.00100/gal       
      Federal Oil Spill Tax 0.00214/gal       
      AZ Underground Storage 0.01000/gal       
      AZ State Excise Tax 0.05000/gal       
      Total $ 2.97191/gal       
      Previous Quote on 03/14/20 $ 3.13191/gal 

 

  • Like 1
Denver98 Enthusiast

Denver98

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's almost worth a flight from Denver!  @Denver98 next time you go to pick up some pups, you gotta stop here for gas.

1457830798_ScreenShot2020-03-20at4_14_30PM.thumb.png.f751fe447dbfa454cb0e00c64883ce80.png

It’s funny, I was JUST looking at this airport, it’s close enough to Amarillo to make it worth the stop.  Although ForeFlight doesn’t show it THAT cheap.  Hopefully we’ll see a drop at BJC soon.

  • Like 1
Mooneymite Grand Master

Mooneymite

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, McMooney said:

this just hurts my feelings

You should feel good.

Whenever I buy this much gas, the price usually plummets at least $1/gallon.

I hate having to be a petroleum speculator.

Denver98 Enthusiast

Denver98

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, carusoam said:

Makes me want the turbine Mooney even more... :)

-a-

Nah, I’ll take that 385hp, 3000 TBO Diesel engine EPS is working on.  

  • 4 weeks later...
carusoam Grand Master

carusoam

Posted
Posted

So...

About a month has gone by...

fuel prices have been heading a good way... in the right direction...

 

Then OPEC got together for a week...

And came up with a plan to cut oil production...

OPEC and allies finalize record oil production cut after days of discussion
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/12/opec-and-allies-finalize-record-oil-production-cut-after-days-of-discussion.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Message
 

See how long the agreement lasts before getting disappointed.

Best regards,

-a-

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