Lets clearly establish the used 430W market

[chriscalandro]

  On 1/1/2020 at 10:35 PM, MikeOH said:

That's exactly what I did last year when my 430W died.  $1200 flat-rate is Garmin's going rate.

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Should I add this as a poll option?

[MikeOH]

  On 1/1/2020 at 11:59 PM, chriscalandro said:

Should I add this as a poll option?

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Depends...I wasn't clear on what your poll was trying to accomplish.

That is, you used "bad430," NOT 430 or 430W, so I wasn't sure if you meant that someone had their NON WAAS 430 die, would they buy a used 430W to replace it.  If you were being generic, then, yes, you should add repair 430W (I don't think Garmin will repair non-WAAS 430s).

[David_H]

The 430W value decline will likely be sharp and rapid when it finally comes. The used avionics market makes very little sense at the moment.

[MikeOH]

Unwillingness to pay free-market price <> market does not make sense.

[chriscalandro]

Well, the basic concept of supply and demand would say -

that the current market of 9% of GPS buyers (of which we don't know who would chose the repair option, I'd guess all...) who chose the 430 suggests that the price point is not in line with what the majority of the current market is willing to pay to make that a real, competitive option.

Especially if you don't care about the nav radio, for almost the same money you can have a new, modern GPS. (which wasn't an option here)

Edited January 2, 2020 by chriscalandro

[0TreeLemur]

 

  On 1/2/2020 at 4:36 AM, chriscalandro said:

Well, the basic concept of supply and demand would say -

that the current market of 9% of GPS buyers (of which we don't know who would chose the repair option, I'd guess all...) who chose the 430 suggests that the price point is not in line with what the majority of the current market is willing to pay to make that a real, competitive option.

Especially if you don't care about the nav radio, for almost the same money you can have a new, modern GPS. (which wasn't an option here)

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Your poll is incomplete.  I would almost never make a large avionics purchase from a random person on eBay.   When I bought a 430W in 2018, I searched the classifieds of aviation www sites, found one that seemed to be a worthwhile purchase, called the seller to discuss, and made a deal.    That option is not on the poll, so I didn't answer.

[cferr59]

  On 1/2/2020 at 1:51 AM, MikeOH said:

Depends...I wasn't clear on what your poll was trying to accomplish.

That is, you used "bad430," NOT 430 or 430W, so I wasn't sure if you meant that someone had their NON WAAS 430 die, would they buy a used 430W to replace it.  If you were being generic, then, yes, you should add repair 430W (I don't think Garmin will repair non-WAAS 430s).

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Garmin will only repair a 430 as part of an upgrade to a 430w.  It is $4495 plus you will need to have a WAAS antenna installed.

[0TreeLemur]

  On 1/1/2020 at 4:34 PM, gsxrpilot said:

He definitely owes you! 

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Thanks @Marauder.  I always thought that a new audio panel is for music-listnin' wusses.   Now I want one. 

[Avionics Source]

  On 1/2/2020 at 3:15 AM, David_H said:

The 430W value decline will likely be sharp and rapid when it finally comes. The used avionics market makes very little sense at the moment.

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David,

With all due respect, this statement couldn't be further from the truth, in fact, 2019 set a record for used sales for us with more CDI's, Transponders, and GPS/NAV/Comms going out the door than ever. I won't confirm used avionics revenue, but it would exceed a flight line worth of Mooney's. What many people forget is the Garmin's of the world created this market...not just for the US but for the world. Specifically, there isn't a Russian or Brazilian based avionics OEM pumping out GPS's etc...they're using all the same products we do here, hence the 130k+ GNS market. That said, demand domestically is good, while international is very strong. One thing to keep in mind is not all of the world has an ADS-B mandate or meet or the economy to support a $16+ new GTN. 

I talk to aircraft owners every day who are finally getting out of Gold/Silver Crown Bendix stacks and getting their first panel mounted GPS ever! It's shocking, but for aircraft with low hull values it's a smart play to go used. When a 430W, IFD440, GTN650, IFD540, GTN750 etc are all WAAS GPS/NAV/Comms providing the same exact utility to the end user outside of price and user interface, many opt for the cheapest solution to check the boxes.  

Lastly, we're hearing from our flight school customers who for the most part can't keep up with demand and are scouring the market for clean 172's to add to their fleet. When they do, they call us to equip back to their fleet commonality which I'm sure as you can guess is used (GMA340, 430W, 330ES, etc). I think our business has proved that as new avionics sales continue to rise (up 10+ % last year), the used market will continue to flourish even if the values and price band gets followed all the way to the bottom. 

Happy to answer additional questions!

Chase.  

[tmo]

  On 1/10/2020 at 7:31 PM, Avionics Source said:

One thing to keep in mind is not all of the world has an ADS-B mandate or meet or the economy to support a $16+ new GTN. 

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To be fair, we did have our 8.33kHz radio nonsense and a mode-s requirement, but yes,definitely, the US is the 5000 lb gorilla in GA.  We're also trying to catch up somewhat, with Trig as an example (which I'm sure sells much better in the EU than in the US).

[tmo]

  On 1/10/2020 at 7:31 PM, Avionics Source said:

Happy to answer additional questions!

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What is Garmin's G5 announcement scheduled for next week?

[steingar]

  On 1/10/2020 at 7:31 PM, Avionics Source said:

David,

With all due respect, this statement couldn't be further from the truth, in fact, 2019 set a record for used sales for us with more CDI's, Transponders, and GPS/NAV/Comms going out the door than ever. 

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I suspect that the domestic demand is being driven by the ADSB mandate.  "While you're doing the transponder, how about this and that".  Whether domestic demand is as robust once the fleet has met the mandate I don't know.

Of course, I could be totally wrong and its just the strong economy.

[carusoam]

Great pirep, Chase!

Haven’t heard from you in a while...

You must be busy! 

Best regards,

-a-

[David_H]

  On 1/10/2020 at 7:31 PM, Avionics Source said:

David,

With all due respect, this statement couldn't be further from the truth, in fact, 2019 set a record for used sales for us with more CDI's, Transponders, and GPS/NAV/Comms going out the door than ever. I won't confirm used avionics revenue, but it would exceed a flight line worth of Mooney's. What many people forget is the Garmin's of the world created this market...not just for the US but for the world. Specifically, there isn't a Russian or Brazilian based avionics OEM pumping out GPS's etc...they're using all the same products we do here, hence the 130k+ GNS market. That said, demand domestically is good, while international is very strong. One thing to keep in mind is not all of the world has an ADS-B mandate or meet or the economy to support a $16+ new GTN. 

I talk to aircraft owners every day who are finally getting out of Gold/Silver Crown Bendix stacks and getting their first panel mounted GPS ever! It's shocking, but for aircraft with low hull values it's a smart play to go used. When a 430W, IFD440, GTN650, IFD540, GTN750 etc are all WAAS GPS/NAV/Comms providing the same exact utility to the end user outside of price and user interface, many opt for the cheapest solution to check the boxes.  

Lastly, we're hearing from our flight school customers who for the most part can't keep up with demand and are scouring the market for clean 172's to add to their fleet. When they do, they call us to equip back to their fleet commonality which I'm sure as you can guess is used (GMA340, 430W, 330ES, etc). I think our business has proved that as new avionics sales continue to rise (up 10+ % last year), the used market will continue to flourish even if the values and price band gets followed all the way to the bottom. 

Happy to answer additional questions!

Chase.  

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Thanks for the response Chase. Your knowledge of the used avionics market is much better than mine. That said, there are a few points to consider.

The 430W is a great box... but support will likely end soon. Garmin will not support the product indefinitely. The used 430W value will likely decline sharply when the announcement to end support is eventually made. Garmin's latest product releases indicate this time is near. Perhaps the value holds stable once that announcement is made. I speculate that the value will then fall sharply. It's amazing the current prices have held for as long as they have.

Install costs make up a large percentage of the overall costs to get a WAAS GPS into a plane. It seems counter-intuitive (in my opinion) to spend the same installation cost on an older box when a new GPS box with newer technology and support planned further into the future is available. Once support ends for the 430W, this will make even less sense.

[MIm20c]

I think there are a lot of owners who are going to eventually upgrade their current 640/750 to the xi version. That will put a good supply of used units (with new install kits) on the market.  Not many of these units have come up for sale recently so it’ll be interesting what pressures it places on the gns series. That along with the cheaper 175/355/375 will put a lot of pressure on 440/540 sales (new, not slide in installs). 
 

I personally think Garmin with its buying power will continue to support the gns series for a long time.  Even if they spec out an internal replacement kit that replaces everything but the display/case using newer (cheaper) processors etc.  With 130k units there would be no problem finding a vendor to make whatever they desire. By keeping it repair based they don’t have to worry about the price downward spiral to compete with their other offerings. 

[Yetti]

  On 1/11/2020 at 5:45 PM, David_H said:

Thanks for the response Chase. Your knowledge of the used avionics market is much better than mine. That said, there are a few points to consider.

The 430W is a great box... but support will likely end soon. Garmin will not support the product indefinitely. The used 430W value will likely decline sharply when the announcement to end support is eventually made. Garmin's latest product releases indicate this time is near. Perhaps the value holds stable once that announcement is made. I speculate that the value will then fall sharply. It's amazing the current prices have held for as long as they have.

Install costs make up a large percentage of the overall costs to get a WAAS GPS into a plane. It seems counter-intuitive (in my opinion) to spend the same installation cost on an older box when a new GPS box with newer technology and support planned further into the future is available. Once support ends for the 430W, this will make even less sense.

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It really does not work like that.  Just because a company EOL something does not cause an upgrade.  As long as people can run it, they will.    Even corporations who should have 3 and 5 years upgrade plans run stuff to failure.   It's always fun to have someone call with a Windows 2008 box and ask what they should do.

[David_H]

  On 1/11/2020 at 6:46 PM, Yetti said:

It really does not work like that.  Just because a company EOL something does not cause an upgrade.  As long as people can run it, they will.    Even corporations who should have 3 and 5 years upgrade plans run stuff to failure.   It's always fun to have someone call with a Windows 2008 box and ask what they should do.

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How is that not how it works with respect to market value? I agree that EOL doesn't force an upgrade immediately. However, once EOL on hardware occurs, replacement must occur eventually. Once support ends, the value must fall. Additionally, hardware and software support are not easily comparable.

Edited January 12, 2020 by David_H
Spelling

[David_H]

Additional points for consideration:

Garmin needs a place for their new product offerings being announced. New GA plane production is likely not Garmin's target due to low production numbers. They're creating new products, investing in R&D, and certifying those products for installation. They need a place for these products to go.

That raises the question: why would anyone upgrade a 430W since they can fly the same WAAS approach as the latest and greatest? Garmin cannot remain in the GA avionics business just to support old products without withering away. Garmin currently holds most of the cards and will likely create a place for those products to go by ending support for their older products that no longer yield them returns.

Avidyne likely threw a kink in Garmin's plans with the slide replacement. However, Garmin's response has been to release new products into the market while Avidyne has mostly sit idle. BK isn't even a player at the moment. That said, Garmin has placed themselves in a position to force users to make the upgrade to one of their new offerings or opt for a 430W slide-in decision (Avidyne) by ending support. They won't get all of the sales of the existing 430W installs. However, a large piece of the sales pie is much better than no sales at all.

Garmin seems to have stacked the deck with new product offerings to favor their current offering portfolio. They now need to force the decision.

 

[tmo]

  On 1/11/2020 at 6:46 PM, Yetti said:

It's always fun to have someone call with a Windows 2008 box and ask what they should do.

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I actually still have a RedHat 7.2 (Enigma) box running some back-end stuff...  Not RHEL 7.2, RedHat 7.2.  Yes, in a VM, yes, isolated from any network except from one local IP on a single port, but I probably still have the hardware it came off of in the attic somewhere, and it would boot up.  They don't make them like they used to

[tmo]

  On 1/11/2020 at 7:28 PM, David_H said:

Garmin needs a place for their new product offerings being announced. New GA plane production is likely not Garmin's target due to low production numbers. They're creating new products, investing in R&D, and certifying those products for installation. They need a place for these products to go.

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They will go after ProLine and Honeywell, that's where the people writing blank checks are...  I can very well imagine a G4000 driven Citation, Honda Jet already runs the G3000, as does the SV50 and the TBM.  I'm sure they are having many lunches with the folks at Pilatus...

[Yetti]

If GRT or Trig brings a IFR Certified GPS to the market that would be entertaining.

 

Or entertainingly provided a certifiable IFR position source to the integrated displays.   G1000   SkyView.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Yetti

[Unit74]

Chase 

 

Domestically, I feel the used WAAS market, read GNS series, is going to drop out significantly for two reasons. First, most of the chatter I heard on buying a GNS was because of the ADSB push. Second, with Garmin dropping the GTN Xi, the current GTNs just dropped in street value a bit. Just like the G500 to G500TXi, both airframe value and component value drops when new gear hits the sales floor. 
 

It sounds to me like the export market is where the money is at. 

[Avionics Source]

  On 1/12/2020 at 12:50 PM, Unit74 said:

Chase 

 

Domestically, I feel the used WAAS market, read GNS series, is going to drop out significantly for two reasons. First, most of the chatter I heard on buying a GNS was because of the ADSB push. Second, with Garmin dropping the GTN Xi, the current GTNs just dropped in street value a bit. Just like the G500 to G500TXi, both airframe value and component value drops when new gear hits the sales floor. 
 

It sounds to me like the export market is where the money is at. 

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All good thoughts, but we really haven't seen anything change early on in 2020. A couple thoughts in no particular order:

1) IMO, Garmin will continue to support the GNS market through 24' or 25' and I think that's even a few years shy. Granted this will be WAAS units only, but I'd bet good money on it. Note: This support and time frame estimate is not speaking to values, simply stating these units are not going away any time soon. One thing to keep in mind is that the GNS line ended in 11' and Garmin has documented history supporting not only their products, but Apollo/UPS AT for over 20 years past end of production. Major kudos to Garmin when they could cut at much shorter time frames.

2) The ADS-B "push" is alive and well on into January and beyond. We've actually sold more ADS-B out transponders in 20' YTD than the entire month of December and finishing out before the deadline was insanity and near capacity breaking. Simply put: more people waited till the last minute than you'd ever believe. Many customers' birds are down and there's either short product lead times or install slot delays pushing them into Feb which is unfortunate. 

3) For everyone reiterating the install market evaporating, I couldn't be more clear: As long as the GNS is supported by Garmin, regardless of new product releases, WAAS 430W & 530W sales will continue to rise to a point that maybe I haven't personally seen. There has never been, nor ever will be, an avionics product that will sell to the tune of the GNS. It's iconic and a staple of the industry, probably fueling Garmin into what it is today. It's a trusted cockpit staple, and because of that, people will continue to buy them on the used aftermarket quite possibly forever regardless of price.

Even the GNS480 (no factory support) are selling used for a price sure a hell of a lot higher than $0.  If I get weekly calls today on KX155/165''s, rest assured we'll have GNS involvement in perpetuity. We rode the $6k+ retail 430W wave from 15' to nearly the end of 19' and just now in 2020 have only cracked into the high 5k price point. Do I care? No because we've bought them for less. So same deal value internally and volume leaving our door anyway. I'll certainly provide an update later this year, but for now I'm going to get back to selling our 10+ units in stock.  

4) The Garmin GTNxi release (being a slide-in replacement) created a can of worms for Garmin. It creates new GTN sales while flooding the market with used 750's...which as you guessed...takes a future new sale away from Garmin. Will used GNS values decease? Absolutely..but by hundreds. However someone who can only spend $6k on a GPS/NAV/Comm will never make the leap to $12k+. The GTNxi release has been my favorite part of the year already! Our partner shops are booming with interest while we're getting just off warranty GTN's ready to bring back to the market at great pricing (I have 5 in stock call me!). If the GNS market is going to shrink...guess what just filled the void :). 

5) Outside of the GNS specifically, one thing I always like to think about, and might provide insight to how I provide the above feedback is what I'd refer to an an "avionics tree". Specifically, this tree contains branches "GNS, GTN, GNX375, etc" that has seen growth and decay over the last 30+ years in this industry. The reason why I highlight it in this analogy is so that people can better understand: "one new avionics product branch does not kill off another branch, the tree simply grows." 

Here's a four pilot sales string example: 

Pilot 1 has a GTN750 and upgrades to a GTN750xi. Pilot 2 has a 530W and upgrades to a used GTN750. Pilot 3 has a KX155 and upgrades to a 530W. Pilot 4 owns a flight school and needs a replacement KX155, and so on and so fourth. New avionics life does not equal avionics death, it in fact spins the industry carosel faster and faster. That's just my take anyway. 

Sorry for the rant. If you didn't like the advice, remember what you paid for it, if you did like the advice, call Avionics Source. Back to playoff football. Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Edited January 13, 2020 by Avionics Source

[gsxrpilot]

Yeah, it's fun to chat, banter, speculate, pontificate, wager, etc. But Chase @Avionics Source actually knows what he's talking about, unlike the rest of us. And this is just one of the things that makes MooneySpace such a great place. We'll all be debating each other and then an expert shows up and actually answers the question.

I traded in a GNS530W and a GMA340 to @Avionics Source and got an IFD540, AXP322, SkyTrax100, and PMA450a in return. Then I went and traded in the PMA450a on a 450b. Chase is easy and fair to do business with. 

Now I just need him to find me a good deal on a used IFD440.

[David_H]

I still remain firmly in the camp that believes 2020 will be different than 2019 with respect to the used avionics market for many reasons. That said, I really wouldn't have guessed that the GNS series would still command the prices it does today... so, I've been wrong before.

@Avionics Source Many thanks for making a positive contribution to the discussion. Your knowledge on the avionics market is a great benefit to everyone here.