Black Friday & Cyber Monday uAvionix deals

[kerry]

I just wanted to gripe about the black Friday cyber Monday  email blast I just got from uAvionx.  Order a sky or tail beacon and get free shipping. Woopie!  Then they have a better deal if you order a AV-20-s or AV-30.  A free hat!.  Now that's what I call a CB company.  I wonder how long it'll take them to drop the price after the Jan 2020 mandate.

[skydvrboy]

2 minutes ago, kerry said:

Now that's what I call a CB company.

Must be owned by a Mooney pilot! 

[Brian E.]

Definitely CB.  On the bright side it looks like shipping is normally $20 so that's a 1% savings!

[Hank]

4 hours ago, kerry said:

I just wanted to gripe about the black Friday cyber Monday  email blast I just got from uAvionx.  Order a sky or tail beacon and get free shipping. Woopie!  Then they have a better deal if you order a AV-20-s or AV-30.  A free hat!.  Now that's what I call a CB company.  I wonder how long it'll take them to drop the price after the Jan 2020 mandate.

        

[Unit74]

Or buy it somewhere else and already get free shipping.  Wait till mid 2020 if you can. Those who really needed it will already have done it. The market is going to get skinny and prices will absolutely drop. I think that’s what uAvionics already knows, hence, the purchase of a more sustainable product like the Av20/30. 
 

I also think the airframe prices will dip a bit because ADSB will be “required equipment” for buyers and no longer be seen as better than the next guys unequipped plane. Expect a sellers discount in the offer contract for ADSB installation. 

[LANCECASPER]

I think there are thousands of airplane owners still in denial. I haven't heard the numbers lately but I would wager that there are still 10's of 1,000's that won't be complaint on Jan. 1, 2020. Uavionix and others might still have a nice income stream in the next few years. 

[Jerry 5TJ]

[thinwing]

I think some owners plan to fly out of or arround rule airspace.So no class B or C or A and below 10,000 ...kinda like what the ultralight guys do now

[Hank]

4 hours ago, thinwing said:

I think some owners plan to fly out of or arround rule airspace.So no class B or C or A and below 10,000 ...kinda like what the ultralight guys do now

Yep, me! I rarely even hit D airspace, and ATL tells me to "keep out," plus going to 12,000 msl makes it really hard to go over in my C, especially eastbound. So I will just keep on slogging around without buying equipment required for the always-denied entry.  

7 hours ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

Any estimates of GA fleet size? These numbers also include airliners, how many of them are there [that still don't need to equip by 1 Jan]?

I suspect I'll have a lot of non-compliant company in six weeks! So look out your windows and don't run into me as you're leaving B and C space or trundling along between those places I don't need to go.  

[thinwing]

Got that Hank....hope that works for you

[MBDiagMan]

Good grief!  It is less than a month to a hard deadline that is probably driving sales.  Why in the world would they significantly drop their prices before then?  Next Christmas?  Yeah, you can probably expect it.

[Jerry 5TJ]

On 11/27/2019 at 10:12 PM, Hank said:

Any estimates of GA fleet size?

The FAA estimates of GA piston engine fleet are in FLEET.

 They show 141,000 GA piston fixed wing in 2015.

As of December 1, 2019 the ADS-B compliance figures are, for all GA ( not just piston) but not including air carrier:

So these data indicate the USA GA Piston fleet is about 50% compliant. 

 

[Davidv]

I’m sure there will be thousands lining up at Jan 1 but it’s probably not as bleak of a compliance picture as the numbers would suggest.  When looking at the GA numbers we need to discount the planes that almost never leave the hangar or ramp (which we know are a ton, at least here in FL) as well as those who don’t live near or plan to go into rule airspace.  I would guess a very high percentage of owners who knew they were going to need it have had it done (except the airlines which apparently aren’t ready at all).

Edited December 7, 2019 by Davidv

[Jerry 5TJ]

1 hour ago, Davidv said:

except the airlines which apparently aren’t ready at all).

Here’s the count as of 1 December 2019

I checked one of the majors:   “As of September 30, 2019, Southwest had 752 Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet”.  Ref:  SW Fleet

So SW has 715 out of 752 compliant with a month to go.  Close....

[Davidv]

54 minutes ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

Here’s the count as of 1 December 2019

I checked one of the majors:   “As of September 30, 2019, Southwest had 752 Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet”.  Ref:  SW Fleet

So SW has 715 out of 752 compliant with a month to go.  Close....

Well I stand corrected, my info was from a FAASafety meeting on Thursday night where a guy from ATC who handles the presidential TFRs said that “thousands” of waivers would be issued on Jan 1 because the airlines aren’t ready.

[Hank]

5 hours ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

The FAA estimates of GA piston engine fleet are in FLEET.

 They show 141,000 GA piston fixed wing in 2015.

As of December 1, 2019 the ADS-B compliance figures are, for all GA ( not just piston) but not including air carrier:

So these data indicate the USA GA Piston fleet is about 50% compliant. 

 

You are mixing your numbers. The GA Piston fixed wing fleet  is reported to number 141,000 planes, while the number of GA Fixed Wing compliant aircraft is 70,000. But GA Fixed Wing includes our Mooneys and the many corporate jets, King Airs, etc., that are not counted in the GA Piston Fixed Wing fleet.

So with 70-odd thousand compliant aircraft, how many are GA Piston Fixed Wing? We don't know, but I'm sure the percentage of compliant jet and turboprop aircraft is much higher than for us piston types, and is probabky a large chunk of the 70-however-many thousand reported above, because they are pretty useless outside of rule airspace.

So you can't make the comparison you tried, because the groups are not the same. The Feds aren't reporting the real numbers because tbey don't want their program to look bad, and they are showing the raw number of airliners ready and leaving it to us to investigate how many freaking airliners there are to know how many of them will get waivers but we won't . . . Because that also makes the FAA look bad.

[Jerry 5TJ]

 

1 hour ago, Hank said:

GA Fixed Wing includes our Mooneys and the many corporate jets, King Airs, etc., that are not counted in the GA Piston Fixed Wing fleet.

True enough, so the comparison suggests that of the total 75K GA installations not all are piston, and there are about 140K piston GA, so our Piston GA compliance is < 50%, most likely.  

SouthWest Airlines is at 95%, as noted above.  Airlines seem to be doing a lot better than GA. 

[Hank]

40 minutes ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

 

True enough, so the comparison suggests that of the total 75K GA installations not all are piston, and there are about 140K piston GA, so our Piston GA compliance is < 50%, most likely.  

SouthWest Airlines is at 95%, as noted above.  Airlines seem to be doing a lot better than GA. 

Airline pilots aren't buying the equipment and paying for installation . . . . And their jets spend almost all of their time in Rule airspace. 

Edited December 7, 2019 by Hank

[DonMuncy]

There aren't many (any) airliners parked in hangars with no plans of being flown soon.

[kpaul]

10 hours ago, DonMuncy said:

There aren't many (any) airliners parked in hangars with no plans of being flown soon.

There are quire a few Max 8s parked, but they are already compliant.

[HRM]

I'm going to ask Seattle Avionics to add a 'Non-ADS-B Compliant" option to their flight planner. Should be easy enough, no Charlie or Bravos. I am too old to fly above 10K so that's not an issue 

[EricJ]

On 12/7/2019 at 8:43 AM, DonMuncy said:

There aren't many (any) airliners parked in hangars with no plans of being flown soon.

There are acres and acres and acres of them parked outside at various airports around the southwest.   They get stored down here between leases/owners or waiting to get chopped up/cannibalized.   A really fun (in a kind of a creepy way) thing to do is to land at Pinal County Airport (KMZJ) where airliners go to die and just walk around among the partially dismembered aircraft.   You learn a lot, I suppose the same way med students learn by cutting up cadavers.   

My understanding is that many aging business jets that have integrated avionics systems (e.g., Honeywell, Rockwell-Collins, whatever), pretty much have no options that are economical given the value of the aircraft.   A common opinion seems to be that vast numbers of them will be fleeing to new homes in South America, Africa, wherever, about Dec. 30.   Should be interesting to see what actually plays out. 

 

[HRM]

On 12/7/2019 at 10:02 PM, HRM said:

I'm going to ask Seattle Avionics to add a 'Non-ADS-B Compliant" option to their flight planner. Should be easy enough, no Charlie or Bravos. I am too old to fly above 10K so that's not an issue 

UPDATE:

Keith Russo (Seattle Avionics Software)  Dec 10, 13:55 PST  Great suggestion. We have a similar feature in a other product to avoid class b. I'll pass it along. Thanks!

HRM Dec 8, 10:01 PST  Hi folks, Why don’t you add an option to the flight plan generator that produces a ‘no ADS-B out’ needed route? It would skirt around Bravo and Charlie air spaces and stay below altitude limits. You could be the first with this feature!