Insurance up 20%

[mike_elliott]

As a car guy, I get it, and still love to test my skillset every now and then. My last dance was a year and a half ago at Bathurst, probably the most demanding track I have driven. But i am also 69 years old, have 1000;s of laps at Mosport, Elkhart lake, Road Atlanta, Mid Ohio, Watkins Glen, Donnybrook (hows that for dating myself) etc. I realize the way it was yesterday isnt the way it will be tomorrow, so why not join the inevitable. I cant stop it. Yes I also walked to school uphill in the snow both ways, but that probably wont ever happen again for anyone. Knowing that someday probably sooner rather than later, Ill hear "dad, give me your keys" at which time I will gladly hand them over because I have a vehicle that will have full self driving capabilities to haul my Octogenairian butt to the beach if I want it to. We cant stop or deny the progress, only shape it.

[Jerry 5TJ]

My Tesla 3 Autopilot already drives the Interstate better than I can. Especially at night.  

[mike_elliott]

2 hours ago, Jerry 5TJ said:

My Tesla 3 Autopilot already drives the Interstate better than I can. Especially at night.  

Full self driving rewrite and roll out 6-10 weeks...

[Hank]

51 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

Full self driving rewrite and roll out 6-10 weeks...

I don't like trusting my life to a caffeinated programmer under time pressure.

The genius who programmed the auto-headlight dimming function on my Toyota should be taken out behind the plant and run over at night by people driving his vehicles who can't see him!

[gsxrpilot]

53 minutes ago, Hank said:

I don't like trusting my life to a caffeinated programmer under time pressure.

That's not how it's done any more. Given a large enough data set, the software writes its self. 

[Hank]

7 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's not how it's done any more. Given a large enough data set, the software writes its self. 

Then I trust it even less!

[Missile=Awesome]

5 hours ago, M016576 said:

Yep- that’s the reason why the rates are what they are.... the statistics don’t lie.

Kind of like if all this self driving stuff actually does bring accident rates down and proves to be orders of magnitudes safer than non-self driving cars... the cost to insure a non-self driving car will skyrocket.  Imagine being priced out of being able to own an old Jeep or mustang... because you can’t afford the insurance.  Talk about opening up a whole new can of worms!  Imagine collector car clubs asking why young folks aren’t driving any more?  Why they don’t love working on cars anymore?  Don’t love racing cars anymore?   I can see what’s happened to GA happening to the “traditional auto” once self driving is widely propagated.  Maybe not tomorrow or in 5 years.  But check back in 15 years....

some guys love the progress @mike_elliott, and part of me can’t wait for it!  But part of me knows that there are some things that I love about “the way it currently is” that will be forever changed and possibly eliminated altogether for a wide swath of people.

sorry for the thread drift!

I feel a little bad because my mini me 27 year old engineer son is “into” cars and will be alive for the “reset”...At least he can wail on my GTS on the way to the glue factory... I mean self driving dealership. F progress if synchronicity wins WE lose...

Edited August 16, 2020 by Missile=Awesome

[bonal]

42 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's not how it's done any more. Given a large enough data set, the software writes its self. 

Sooo, robots making robots...now that's just stupid 

[mike_elliott]

12 hours ago, Hank said:

I don't like trusting my life to a caffeinated programmer under time pressure.

The genius who programmed the auto-headlight dimming function on my Toyota should be taken out behind the plant and run over at night by people driving his vehicles who can't see him!

Nor would I, but programmers that smoke NASA and Boeings best and can dock a rocket on a floating barge in the ocean...just maybe. Of course, nothing will happen until the right "regulators" are greased appropriately.

Your Toyota example highlights just how far the #2 automaker is now behind.

[Hank]

Just now, mike_elliott said:

Nor would I, but programmers that smoke NASA and Boeings best and can dock a rocket on a floating barge in the ocean...just maybe. Of course, nothing will happen until the right "regulators" are greased appropriately.

Your Toyota example highlights just how far the #2 automaker is now behind.

And you think all automakers scrambling to put out "self-driving vehicles" will be better???

Name one item, with examples and references, that was actually improved by government regulations. Oh, I know--the Federal Airmens Regulations sure do keep airplanes strong, safe and easy to maintain!

[mike_elliott]

11 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's not how it's done any more. Given a large enough data set, the software writes its self. 

AI like it or not, is here to stay. The real challenge is controlling AI so that, how do the wokers say, we become insignificant. I was fortunate to shift fields and start a Networking distribution company in 1980, and as a result, saw how important technology change can be and how it can be dangerous. As an engineer, Hank, you realize your tool box hasnt changed much since getting your degree umteen years ago, just as an engineer, mine hasnt either. Humidity is humidity, S still equals P/A. Not so much in the technology, AI field. Our brightest all want to work at the best firms. SpaceX and Tesla are among their top pics, not Fiat Chrysler or for that matter Boeing any longer.

 

Just now, Hank said:

And you think all automakers scrambling to put out "self-driving vehicles" will be better???

Name one item, with examples and references, that was actually improved by government regulations. Oh, I know--the Federal Airmens Regulations sure do keep airplanes strong, safe and easy to maintain!

Nope, automakers scrambling to put out self driving vehicles are doing so to not continue to lose market share to Tesla. They might catch up to where Tesla is today in about 4 years, but Tesla will be so far superior then it will be moot, ergo why it is rumored #2 Toyota is negotiating for a license on the Tesla technology. They have admitted this software advantage might be insurmountable. GM and F are in denial at the moment, but who knows? they may pull a rabbit out of their plant and disrupt the industry like Musk did in a couple of years. Im gonna short this concept however.

I cannot name one item improved by Gubbermint regs, why would you think I could or think it would? My point is that full self driving wont be "legal" until someone gets paid off, like most regulation adaption.

[gsxrpilot]

2 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

AI like it or not, is here to stay.

Yep, you can't unlearn or unsee the technology. This genie isn't going back in the bottle anytime soon.

[mike_elliott]

Just now, gsxrpilot said:

Yep, you can't unlearn or unsee the technology. This genie isn't going back in the bottle anytime soon.

Thats what Chip Ganassi told Tony George when he broke off and formed the IRL and tried to reduce racing costs. 

[Hank]

2 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

AI like it or not, is here to stay. The real challenge is controlling AI so that, how do the wokers say, we become insignificant. I was fortunate to shift fields and start a Networking distribution company in 1980, and as a result, saw how important technology change can be and how it can be dangerous. As an engineer, Hank, you realize your tool box hasnt changed much since getting your degree umteen years ago, just as an engineer, mine hasnt either. Humidity is humidity, S still equals P/A. Not so much in the technology, AI field. Our brightest all want to work at the best firms. SpaceX and Tesla are among their top pics, not Fiat Chrysler or for that matter Boeing any longer.

Nope, automakers scrambling to put out self driving vehicles are doing so to not continue to lose market share to Tesla. They might catch up to where Tesla is today in about 4 years, but Tesla will be so far superior then it will be moot, ergo why it is rumored #2 Toyota is negotiating for a license on the Tesla technology. They have admitted this software advantage might be insurmountable. GM and F are in denial at the moment, but who knows? they may pull a rabbit out of their plant and disrupt the industry like Musk did in a couple of years. Im gonna short this concept however.

I cannot name one item improved by Gubbermint regs, why would you think I could or think it would? My point is that full self driving wont be "legal" until someone gets paid off, like most regulation adaption.

 I'm not sure what "S = P/A" has to do with anything, or what it means. As a Mechanical Engineer, my toolbox has evolved a lot over my career. Compare my T square and triangles as a student to the 3D CAD systems that I now use. Even 10 years ago, new grads had no idea how to draw by hand, not even making a quick sketch on paper to use as a reference when returning to the computer to create / edit their CAD file.

Expect me to be one of the last holdouts to drive myself in my own car to the airport, where I will fly myself in my own plane to where I want to go. Upon arrival, if I can't drive myself, I'll find a way to go the last mile without depending on automation to get there. I'm now working in my fifth manufacturing facility, each one with much more automation than the previous one, and not only do I not trust my life to the automation, if you are seen doing so, it's your last day working there. Been like that at all the others, too.

Guess you've forgotten the news reports about people watching movies while their self-driving electric cars "on autopilot" drove them into oncoming trafric that "the system didn't see." I have less than no desire to repeat that outcome myself, and a rather strong desire to actively not repeat the fatal crashes.

[Skates97]

12 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

That's not how it's done any more. Given a large enough data set, the software writes its self. 

 

11 hours ago, bonal said:

Sooo, robots making robots...now that's just stupid 

I seem to recall a movie about that back in the 80's, the robot spoke with an accent... 

[Andy95W]

3 minutes ago, Skates97 said:

 

I seem to recall a movie about that back in the 80's, the robot spoke with an accent... 

"These are not the 'droids you're looking for."

-Obi-Wan Kenobi

[mike_elliott]

13 minutes ago, Hank said:

 I'm not sure what "S = P/A" has to do with anything, or what it means. As a Mechanical Engineer, my toolbox has evolved a lot over my career. Compare my T square and triangles as a student to the 3D CAD systems that I now use. Even 10 years ago, new grads had no idea how to draw by hand, not even making a quick sketch on paper to use as a reference when returning to the computer to create / edit their CAD file.

Expect me to be one of the last holdouts to drive myself in my own car to the airport, where I will fly myself in my own plane to where I want to go. Upon arrival, if I can't drive myself, I'll find a way to go the last mile without depending on automation to get there. I'm now working in my fifth manufacturing facility, each one with much more automation than the previous one, and not only do I not trust my life to the automation, if you are seen doing so, it's your last day working there. Been like that at all the others, too.

Guess you've forgotten the news reports about people watching movies while their self-driving electric cars "on autopilot" drove them into oncoming trafric that "the system didn't see." I have less than no desire to repeat that outcome myself, and a rather strong desire to actively not repeat the fatal crashes.

Stress-Load/Area, statics 101. Hasnt changed since the beginning of time. Its good to hear you embraced technology and pitched your K&E bamboo slide rule and rapidiograph pen set for ACAD, Revit and other tools that that dastardly technology gives you to represent what S=P/A and moment diagrams depict. Those concepts havent changed a bit, and you havent had to learn a complete new set of laws and rules, unlike network technology, would you not agree?

As far as the cars "driving themselves" onto oncoming traffic, you may want to review the data. Tesla has. I believe one claim might be true, and the rest, well, not so much. The data from the "crashed" vehicles report things like "drivers foot on accelerator pedal to override the cruise control braking system" etc. Tesla's autopilot as it is right now will not fully drive you someplace, and that is CLEARLY stated and understood by owners, except those that cannot read, know how to drive, what the systems are they have, or are in denial. That said, the software release I have is obviously not ready for me to crawl into the back seat and crack one open quite yet, but I bet over 100K that it will be someday, which is hedged by my bet on Tesla disrupting other industries such as energy, insurance, ride sharing, blockchain, manufacturing and the list goes on and on.

Anyway, I will never try to convince anyone that change is coming, this will hit them soon enough. I chose to get in front of it, not deny it or hope it goes away.

An interesting talk by a guy named Tony Saba speaks of disruption you might be interested in, it is a bit long, but insightful

 

[MIm20c]

I don’t mind owning Tesla stock but I will never buy a car with that emblem on the front. Just send all your old, obsolete, high end oil burners my way over the next 40 years.  I’ll be terrorizing the land, sea, and air with my engine spinning as long as I can. 

[Parker_Woodruff]

Just now, MIm20c said:

I don’t mind owning Tesla stock but I will never buy a car with that emblem on the front. Just send all your old, obsolete, high end oil burners my way over the next 40 years.  I’ll be terrorizing the land, sea, and air with my engine spinning as long as I can. 

Electric is cool, eventually will be more reliable, etc.; but I can't imagine buying a Porsche that doesn't sound like a traditional race car

[Skates97]

36 minutes ago, Andy95W said:

"These are not the 'droids you're looking for."

-Obi-Wan Kenobi

I was thinking of "I'll be back."

-Terminator

[M016576]

17 hours ago, mike_elliott said:

Knowing that someday probably sooner rather than later, Ill hear "dad, give me your keys" at which time I will gladly hand them over because I have a vehicle that will have full self driving capabilities to haul my Octogenairian butt to the beach if I want it to.

I’m not sure you really understand the possible end state of this technology as dreamed up by Tesla... Because it involves nobody actually having/owning a car at all (let alone the skill set to “drive”).  Just an automated fleet of self driving in perpetual motion.  So the concept that our children would “want the keys” is not really relevant (when was the last time you saw an actual key and not a fob, btw.... very very soon it’s your phone that will allow for the car to start/go/move... but all that’s an entirely different conversation).

Tesla is the leader in pushing their “beta” software out to the masses.  A few other companies are working in autonomous driving as well- Google (waymo), etc.  I’m not 100% convinced the “moat” is as wide and deep as many Tesla stockholders seem to preach.  But time will certainly tell.

[mike_elliott]

Just now, M016576 said:

very very soon it’s your phone that will allow for the car to start/go/move... but all that’s an entirely different conversation)

Mine does this now. It parks itself in my garage, will come to me when "summoned"  at a resturaunt (when we are "allowed" to go back to them "safely"),  control environment and other car functions  via my Google pixel XL. It knows when I am approaching the car and will present the drivers door open when I am a couple of feet from entering.

Ill be damned if the kids take my phone and I wont tell them about this control. 

Just now, M016576 said:

I’m not sure you really understand the possible end state of this technology as dreamed up by Tesla..

While it is a possibility no one will HAVE to own a car, Tesla's vision isnt that no one cant own a car. This, unfortunately wont be left to science but will be up to those that must, under any circumstances, control us and how we eat, flush toilets, etc. Be on guard for this, not the technology.

I am waiting for the update that will allow my Model X to sound like a Porsche 917 or McClaren at full song, or a UPS truck if I so want. It is simply software  and I can already do other stuff with sounds, right @rocketman

[mike_elliott]

12 minutes ago, M016576 said:

Tesla is the leader in pushing their “beta” software out to the masses.  A few other companies are working in autonomous driving as well- Google (waymo), etc.  I’m not 100% convinced the “moat” is as wide and deep as many Tesla stockholders seem to preach.  But time will certainly tell.

It may very well not be that far apart, but the amount of L2 and L3 autonomous driving miles accumulated by Tesla makes it sure seem insurmountable in its lead for L5 full autonmous while its neural network and AI continue develops and improves with ea. mile, something the other players dont have going for it. The big prize is the ride sharing robo taxi market they all realize how profitable will be. That is not in question, just the prize.

[mike_elliott]

30 minutes ago, Parker_Woodruff said:

Electric is cool, eventually will be more reliable, etc.; but I can't imagine buying a Porsche that doesn't sound like a traditional race car

That is an easy fix...what do you want it to sound like  WHat you wont have is the torque drop off as you approach redline and having to shift to get that torque back.

[Hank]

29 minutes ago, mike_elliott said:

That is an easy fix...what do you want it to sound like  WHat you wont have is the torque drop off as you approach redline and having to shift to get that torque back.

Takes both the fun and the skill out of it . . . .  

Things that are too easy are not enjoyable, like Level 1 sudoku. No thanks!