Brazil ATR Crash

[201er]

ATR-72 appears to be in a flat spin?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/09/plane-crash-brazil-sao-paulo

 

[KSMooniac]

Sure looks like it... hard to imagine how a crewed commercial aircraft can get into that situation...

[AndreiC]

Looks like icing might have been a factor, as in at least 3 other fatal ATR-72 crashes. 

[201er]

 

[Shadrach]

19 hours ago, KSMooniac said:

Sure looks like it... hard to imagine how a crewed commercial aircraft can get into that situation...

I’m not a pro, but it looks to me like “George” was doing the flying until the conditions (icing?) degraded the airfoil to such a degree that it required inputs that exceeded its capabilities. The human crew was then presented with an unsalvageable mess. Significant groundspeed degradation over about a 2 minute span before departing controlled flight.

[Ragsf15e]

9 minutes ago, Shadrach said:

I’m not a pro, but it looks to me like “George” was doing the flying until the conditions (icing?) degraded the airfoil to such a degree that it required inputs that exceeded its capabilities. The human crew was then presented with a salvageable mess. Significant airspeed degradation over about a 2 minute span before departing controlled flight.

Eerily similar to the Buffalo crash… some ice, losing airspeed, not taking action to maintain airspeed and prevent the stall.  Once you stall a big airplane covered in ice, I’d think you’re in a bad way.

[Hank]

1 hour ago, 201er said:

 

Hard pass on blancolirio!! Glad he survived his latest crash, but I'll not listen to him blather on with his opinion on what caused this crash, especially on the same day as the accident! But I did notice last night that YouTube is covered up in videos about this accident by lots of posters I've never heard of, too. Have managed tomignore all of them, too.

My opinion, not presented in any video anywhere, is that the plane got iced up badly, stalled and spun in. Severe icing was forecast from 12,000 to 21,000 feet, and they were cruising at 17K until they spun out the bottom of the clouds.

If you want the real cause, wait for the investigation to get started. Or listen to Juan boy above, but I don't like impugning dead pilots before any evidence one way or another has even been collected, much less reviewed, so I don't listen to him anymore.

Edit:  please excuse me confusing one armchair expert for an even more infuriating one! I ignore both Juan above and Dan Gryder, and confused them. Excoriating remarks relevant to Dan's self-serving "DTSB" have been removed. But I don't pay much attention to Jaun anymore, either.

[Shadrach]

24 minutes ago, Ragsf15e said:

Eerily similar to the Buffalo crash… some ice, losing airspeed, not taking action to maintain airspeed and prevent the stall.  Once you stall a big airplane covered in ice, I’d think you’re in a bad way.

I thought the same thing. If I recall correctly, the Buffalo crash also involved  a flap deployment.

[Shadrach]

15 minutes ago, Hank said:

Hard pass on blancolirio!! Glad he survived his latest crash, but I'll not listen to him blather on with his opinion on what caused this crash, especially on the same day as the accident! But I did notice last night that YouTube is covered up in videos about this accident by lots of posters I've never heard of, too. Have managed tomignore all of them, too.

My opinion, not presented in any video anywhere, is that the plane got iced up badly, stalled and spun in. Severe icing was forecast from 12,000 to 21,000 feet, and they were cruising at 17K until they spun out the bottom of the clouds.

If you want the real cause, wait for the investigation to get started. Or listen to Juan boy above, but I don't like impugning dead pilots before any evidence one way or another has even been collected, much less reviewed, so I don't listen to him anymore.

Are you perhaps confusing Juan Brown (Blancolirio) with Dan Gryder (Problem Cause)? 

[Hank]

27 minutes ago, Shadrach said:

Are you perhaps confusing Juan Brown (Blancolirio) with Dan Gryder (Problem Cause)? 

Looks like it. Juan isn't as bad, but I avoid him, too. Original,post has been edited, Juan isn't as bad as him--nomine is that bad!!

[Shadrach]

2 minutes ago, Hank said:

Looks like it. Juan isn't as bad, but I avoid him, too.

I’ve never seen Juan do anything questionable. He pretty much states the known facts and provides additional background and clarity on what’s being reported. 

[201er]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

My opinion, not presented in any video anywhere, is that the plane got iced up badly, stalled and spun in. Severe icing was forecast from 12,000 to 21,000 feet, and they were cruising at 17K until they spun out the bottom of the clouds.

That’s literally the idea presented in the video above. He went over the weather, icing potential, and even discussed the severe icing checklist procedure for that plane.

[A64Pilot]

7 hours ago, Shadrach said:

I’m not a pro, but it looks to me like “George” was doing the flying until the conditions (icing?) degraded the airfoil to such a degree that it required inputs that exceeded its capabilities. The human crew was then presented with an unsalvageable mess. Significant groundspeed degradation over about a 2 minute span before departing controlled flight.

With zero facts to go on, that’s my best WAG too.

God, how long does it take to spin from FL 170? I’d hate to hear that Cockpit tape, it would keep me up at night.

[Hank]

6 hours ago, 201er said:

That’s literally the idea presented in the video above. He went over the weather, icing potential, and even discussed the severe icing checklist procedure for that plane.

It may be in several videos, none of which are my.own, and none of which I've watched..I just don't feel the need to.create, edit and post videos with my opinions about various events all the time.

[Echo]

2 hours ago, Hank said:

It may be in several videos, none of which are my.own, and none of which I've watched..I just don't feel the need to.create, edit and post videos with my opinions about various events all the time.

Well Hank, you judge hard without really watching and learning.  That is on YOU brother.  Sometimes you should say nothing if you don't know or understand something?

[Echo]

10 hours ago, Shadrach said:

Are you perhaps confusing Juan Brown (Blancolirio) with Dan Gryder (Problem Cause)? 

Both have content tha can save your life.  I FULLY UNDERSTAND that many dispise DG.  I often ponder why those that despise orange man bad can not verbalize one thing SPECIFICALLY that he has done that they oppose.  Put up or SHUT up say I.

[philiplane]

ATR-72's are susceptible to loss of control in severe icing conditions, like any other plane.

Take that, add a young crew to the mix, and you've got serious potential for an unrecoverable stall. Not a tail plane stall, because the nose hasn't dropped in the video shown. Those are recovered with back pressure on the elevator, the opposite of a normal stall. 

A heavily contaminated wing no longer wants to fly. NASA has done extensive research on airframe icing, mostly using their Twin Otter. An associate of mine has been aboard for those tests. He provides the ice measuring devices, and ones that measure the content and type of water in the air. He also uses this equipment while documenting the icing certification tests for all the major GA airframe, and engine, OEM's. His company is one of the most experienced in aircraft icing certification and our discussion was fairly short. The inexperienced crew flew into severe icing, lost control, and were unable to recover the plane. It's rare, but until aircraft are equipped with actual ice-sensing and crew-alerting equipment, it will happen again. The equipment exists, and has for years. 

[MB65E]

Collins makes the ice detectors for Gulfstream.

Still a really sad day. 

The videos still sound like one propeller is feathered. Sounded like low rotor on a helicopter. 

-Matt

[EricJ]

43 minutes ago, MB65E said:

Collins makes the ice detectors for Gulfstream.

Still a really sad day. 

The videos still sound like one propeller is feathered. Sounded like low rotor on a helicopter. 

-Matt

I wonder if they weren't trying differential power or even reverse thrust on one of them to stop the spin.

[MikeOH]

I realize this sounds completely crazy...but what if the captain had the passengers in the back half run forward?  Would that move the CG far enough forward to unflatten the spin?

[Ibra]

The aircraft should not have stalled in the first place (twin, t-tail, twin...) it looks like auto-pilot was flying until tail and wings could not generate lift due to severe icing

I did read from unconfirmed sources that the weather was the butcher in the area and that this ATR requested level change and that was denied by ATC (also another ATR pilot who went though reported it was the worst icing he saw in his life, one jet reported emergency to change level)

In severe icing one has to descend and let ATC know what they are descending: the last worry in those life threatening weather is loss of ATC separation in clouds?

Anyway, the aircraft will shortly do that descent with without clearance: lose speed, lose altitude, lose radio, lose autopilot, lose control, lose engine...

Edited August 11 by Ibra

[1980Mooney]

15 hours ago, A64Pilot said:

God, how long does it take to spin from FL 170? I’d hate to hear that Cockpit tape, it would keep me up at night.

Well it took 50 seconds to drop the initial 1,000 ft from 17,000 to 16,000. After that it was dropping at about 11,500 - 12,000 fpm. Elevation at the crash site, Vinhedo, is about 2,500 ft. So the final descent from 16,000 took about 1 minute and 10 seconds. 
 

I am sure it was terrifying. The Juan Browne YouTube above at 3:20 shows video of the descent from 5 different viewpoints.   It is amazing that so many people were looking up tracking it in the sky and had time to video it. I suspect Doppler effect caused the screaming prop noise to fluctuate as it spun 360 degrees and caused to people look up. 

[N201MKTurbo]

When I retired the first time in 2010 I was considering an airline job. I flew to Atlanta to attend an airline job fair. I interviewed with Mr Calgon. I asked him about the Q400 crash, which was very much like this crash. I don’t remember everything he said, but he said he knew the crew very well and he teared up talking about it. He sold the airline a few years before, but he said he still helped them out from time to time.

[DXB]

On 8/10/2024 at 11:10 AM, Hank said:

Hard pass on blancolirio!! Glad he survived his latest crash, but I'll not listen to him blather on with his opinion on what caused this crash, especially on the same day as the accident! But I did notice last night that YouTube is covered up in videos about this accident by lots of posters I've never heard of, too. Have managed tomignore all of them, too.

My opinion, not presented in any video anywhere, is that the plane got iced up badly, stalled and spun in. Severe icing was forecast from 12,000 to 21,000 feet, and they were cruising at 17K until they spun out the bottom of the clouds.

If you want the real cause, wait for the investigation to get started. Or listen to Juan boy above, but I don't like impugning dead pilots before any evidence one way or another has even been collected, much less reviewed, so I don't listen to him anymore.

Edit:  please excuse me confusing one armchair expert for an even more infuriating one! I ignore both Juan above and Dan Gryder, and confused them. Excoriating remarks relevant to Dan's self-serving "DTSB" have been removed. But I don't pay much attention to Jaun anymore, either.

These are two VERY different men.  Juan Brown is an ordinary Youtube accident "expert" who engages in 80% early factual dissemination combined with 20% premature speculation that by its very nature is prone to miss the mark.  At least from what I've seen, he is generally not disrespectful to the injured and deceased and also tends to correct errors in later videos. By contrast, Dan Gryder is a rare and special form of scumbag who has zero regard for ordinary human decency and humility. He not only promotes wild speculations as fact but also repeatedly engages in exceptionally nasty personal attacks against people involved in accidents as well as anyone in the aviation community who dares call him out. The guy also has restraining orders for stalking women in the aviation community ( https://casetext.com/case/angelle-v-gryder ) and a million dollar defamation judgement against him.  Part of DG's routine strategy is putting up such scurrilous sensationalist content briefly and then taking it down when it is about to get him in trouble.  

Dan Millican, who I think is mostly a class act among aviation Youtubers and has been a target of DG, has taken a particular interest in documenting how evil this guy is: 

 

[EricJ]

I like Juan's videos.    He tends to stick with what is actually known at the time, and given that he usually has something up within a very short time of an accident, generally does a pretty good job of an early assessment from what is available at the time.    He's an experienced aviator, both in the Air Force and commercial airlines, owns a Luscombe and is an A&P.   When he speculates he generally says so.    All that said, I do know quite a few people who don't like his vids, for whatever reason.

There's quite a variety of aviation Youtubers, obviously.   Something for just about everybody.