Please help me spend $50,000

[Toolman]

Mr. Davis:

Spend $100.00 on Xpanel 5000 soft ware. It will let you Build the panel you like on your computer, show you what the cost of the avionics is going for approximately and show you what it will look like and if it fits.  It's for experimental but it has the Mooney panels. I built a cool panel for my "C" and got a very close estimate on the price of the new toys plus the old toys that are staying in; less installation.

[Tony Starke]

3 hours ago, Unit74 said:

Lets just be painfully honest here. You are not a spring chicken.  Dumping that much money in a toy when all it is gonna take is one trip to the Dr and you are grounded for life is not the best decision. Keep it the way it is, fly it, and take the $50k and blow it on vacations and such. Not trying to deflate you, but think about it from an unemotional viewpoint. The next guy will love you for it, but what will the actual time you get to use it? 

 

Go the doc and find out what the reality of your health is before blowing all that cash.  That's my take.

Are you Clark Howard or possibly one of Glen’s heirs?

[Unit74]

Disagree all you want, that’s your prerogative. But the elephant in the room is not invisible.  The average life span in the US of a male is 70 years old.   If you want to act like a Karen because the truth is offensive, I really don’t have any more time to entertain you.  

[amillet]

IRS life expectancy table says a 64 year old has 21.8 years to go

[Tony Starke]

No time to entertain us? Playing the “averages” I’d say you have another 58 years to entertain us.

 

18 minutes ago, Unit74 said:

The average life span in the US of a male is 70 years old.   I really don’t have any more time to entertain you.  

[whiskytango]

2 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Lyrics

When I get older losing my hair
Many years from now
Will you still be sending me a Valentine
Birthday greetings bottle of wine

If I'd been out till quarter to three
Would you lock the door
Will you still need me, will you still feed me
When I'm sixty-four

You'll be older too
And if you say the word
I could stay with you

I could be handy, mending a fuse
When your lights have gone
You can knit a sweater by the fireside
Sunday mornings go for a ride
Doing the garden, digging the weeds
Who could ask for more

Will you still need me, will you still feed me
When I'm sixty-four....

 

Go for it!

Sir Paul is currently pushing 80, and is selling tickets for his 2022 Tour.  He does not seem to be concerned that he passed 64 quite a while ago.

[MikeOH]

5 hours ago, Unit74 said:

Dumping that much money in a toy when all it is gonna take is one trip to the Dr and you are grounded for life is not the best decision.

Then, don't go to the doctor!

Problem solved

[toto]

20 hours ago, NJMac said:

Personally, if I loose a display,I don't want to loose engine data too which is why I'm doing the 930.

Engine gauges from Garmin EIS can be viewed on an iPad running Garmin Pilot - which, obviously, you wouldn't do as SOP, but if the Garmin display craps out in flight, you've got another way to view it.

[PT20J]

1 hour ago, MikeOH said:

Then, don't go to the doctor!

Problem solved

Charles Munger once said, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I never go there."

[Skates97]

7 hours ago, Unit74 said:

I look at it from ROI. If I spend $50k, I want to use it for XX years. But yea, even if he gets a year out of it, if it makes him grin ear to ear for that year, its worth it to him I suppose. I wouldn't do it myself, but if I wanted to buy his plane, I'd be eggin' him on all day!

It all depends how you define ROI. I'm much younger than the OP, looking at 49 in a few months. I put the GFC500 in my 1965 D which could be argued as a waste of money. I'm based in SoCal. Since getting it back it was used for a trip to St George and back Memorial Day Weekend, we were in Pagosa Springs in Colorado last weekend with stops in Phoenix going and returning to visit my folks. Flew to Idaho Falls yesterday to see family and back home today, plus more local flights. If I had to sell the plane for some unforseen reason tomorrow my financial ROI would be horrible, however if you measured it in terms of enjoyment I'm already ahead on that ROI scale.

Everything in life is not about money, in fact very little of what really matters is about money. 

[aviatoreb]

5 hours ago, Unit74 said:

Disagree all you want, that’s your prerogative. But the elephant in the room is not invisible.  The average life span in the US of a male is 70 years old.   If you want to act like a Karen because the truth is offensive, I really don’t have any more time to entertain you.  

I don't think its so much a disagreement of what is the statistical lifespan of the average us male, although I am not sure you got even that right.  In fact you got the mathematics part of your assertion completely wrong.  

But more important, it is the philosophy disagreement.  If I had six months to live, and I had the means, then by all means I am thinking about bucket list as well as the people who mean the most to me.  If I had an airplane that I had dreamed to fix up at some point, then heck - two things would cross my mind - better do it now so I can see it done and have that satisfaction and enjoy it. PLUS - if I had been saving for dozens more years of life and then it turns out that I only had six months, then no need to save for that anymore.  If its all about saving and denying yourself your own life to have a big number for the next generation to inherit - well that's not my philosophy as to my obligation, but certainly if someone who is close to me was needing it would be a consideration.

Ok - your mathematics is wrong, in 2 ways.  

1) the most obvious way - your statistics is you say 70?  I see about 75 - actually 75.97 as per this US Social Security actuarial table.  https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html. for a US Male then life expectancy AT BIRTH is 75.97.

2) the slightly more subtle way your statistic is completely wrong, and it is not a minor effect, it is huge - once you have reached 64, then the expected life expectancy of a US male is 18.62 more years (to 82.62).  In fact, once you reach 70, the average life expectancy is 14.39 more years (to 84.39).  And once you reach 75, God willing, your life expectancy (as member of the population) is 11.14 years (to 86.14).  WHAAT?  But it was 75.97 when you are born and then when you hit 75 its not a fatal condition being 75 - you are now expected to make about 11.14 more years.  In fact if you make it to 76 (and yes sometimes it happens!  I even know people that made it to 76!! And more!!!) according to your computation you are expected to be dead 6 years ago and according to the US social sec...no you aren't expected to be dead a year ago... you are expected to make it 10.53 more years (to 86.53).  If you make it to 100 years old - expectation is 2.12 more years (to 102.12).   And so on.  I love that their table goes to 119. (expect almost another year). 

The idea is the longer you live, the more you are in that narrow group of people that isn't in the usual population of people that didn't get all sorts of diseases that might get the newborn - childhood diseases, risky behaviors, teenage rare diseases, bad accidents, etc.  Formally, its about conditional probabilities.  

P(death in n years given that you have already lived to m years, and n>m) > P(death in n years given that you have already lived to 0 years, and n>0).

Ok - but math aside. I put the philosophy of life as my first foot since even though I am a mathematician, I find philosophy of life to be even more important.

Oh...and Karen?  Doesn't have anything to do with it.

[PT20J]

23 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

don't think its so much a disagreement of what is the statistical lifespan of the average us male, although I am not sure you got even that right.

Did NOT get it right.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

[aviatoreb]

Just now, PT20J said:

Did NOT get it right.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

Are you disputing that 

P(death in n years | you have already lived to m years, and n>m) > P(death in n years | you have already lived to 0 years, and n>0).

and more generally?

P(death in n years | you have already lived to m1 years, and n>m1) > P(death in n years | you have already lived to m2 years, and n>m2) if m1>m2

Or are you referring to that I cited a 2017 actuarial table and you are referring to a 2020 adjustment to that table.  Note the adjustments from year to year tend to be very very small. E.g. in 2017 the expectancy if you make it to 65 is listed ass 17.89 but in the 2020 you cited me it is listed as 17.8 (different rounding?  Or a slight change?).

By the way, all this stuff is just expectations across populations and conditional expectations.  If you have certain conditions your expectancy could make it even lower, but there are also conditionings that might show a larger number than these general numbers across the full population.  Also notice that two major categories, sex (male-female) and also race (whether genetic, economic, behavior I don't know, and not important to this discussion) conditioning on those as well adjusts the numbers. But not to change the premise of what I was saying.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Unit74 said:

Lets just be painfully honest here. You are not a spring chicken.  Dumping that much money in a toy when all it is gonna take is one trip to the Dr and you are grounded for life is not the best decision. Keep it the way it is, fly it, and take the $50k and blow it on vacations and such. Not trying to deflate you, but think about it from an unemotional viewpoint. The next guy will love you for it, but what will the actual time you get to use it? 

 

Go the doc and find out what the reality of your health is before blowing all that cash.  That's my take.

A client and friend of mine who is in his mid 70’s put a new engine in his 421 last year, this year he put in a new GFC600 in only to discover that it was limited by his triple Aspen panel.  He just got the plane back from the shop with a new G600 panel.  

He said “with the value of money these days what else would he do with it?”  I told him that “I’ve never seen a Brinks truck follow the hearse to the cemetery.  Spend it and enjoy it while you can”

Clarence

[Glen Davis]

7 hours ago, Tony Starke said:

Are you Clark Howard or possibly one of Glen’s heirs?

I like that one! When I’m gone my wife gets 95 percent of our net worth. If she’s gone it all goes to my favorite animal charities.  No kids...  I have enough that I’ll never run out. Flying makes me happy. Owning a beautiful well equipped aircraft makes me happy.  Tinkering in my new 45 x 60 hangar makes me happy. I just put a 20 AMU bathroom in my new hangar and using the bidet toilet makes me happy (and clean!). I’ve got 100 countries stamps in my passport.  Going on vacation doesn’t make me happy.  Glen 

[PT20J]

2 hours ago, aviatoreb said:

Are you disputing that 

P(death in n years | you have already lived to m years, and n>m) > P(death in n years | you have already lived to 0 years, and n>0).

and more generally?

P(death in n years | you have already lived to m1 years, and n>m1) > P(death in n years | you have already lived to m2 years, and n>m2) if m1>m2

Or are you referring to that I cited a 2017 actuarial table and you are referring to a 2020 adjustment to that table.  Note the adjustments from year to year tend to be very very small. E.g. in 2017 the expectancy if you make it to 65 is listed ass 17.89 but in the 2020 you cited me it is listed as 17.8 (different rounding?  Or a slight change?).

By the way, all this stuff is just expectations across populations and conditional expectations.  If you have certain conditions your expectancy could make it even lower, but there are also conditionings that might show a larger number than these general numbers across the full population.  Also notice that two major categories, sex (male-female) and also race (whether genetic, economic, behavior I don't know, and not important to this discussion) conditioning on those as well adjusts the numbers. But not to change the premise of what I was saying.

I was agreeing with your comment that I quoted regarding Unit74’s erroneous assertion and citing another source of data.

Skip

[Glen Davis]

10 hours ago, Toolman said:

Mr. Davis:

Spend $100.00 on Xpanel 5000 soft ware. It will let you Build the panel you like on your computer, show you what the cost of the avionics is going for approximately and show you what it will look like and if it fits.  It's for experimental but it has the Mooney panels. I built a cool panel for my "C" and got a very close estimate on the price of the new toys plus the old toys that are staying in; less installation.

Great advice.  I’ll do it.  

[carusoam]

Glen,

You have  accomplished many things…

 

What is your favorite animal charity?

Are you involved with pilots n paws or other moving pets charities?

 

 

Holy cow somebody is using stats from last century….
 

• A heart-attack outside of the hospital environment used to be deadly…
• Smoking was a way to get you killed before 60, on average…
• Cancer was a death sentence….

Modern technology, knowledge, and time have gone a long way to extend the lives of many people… Long enough to be flying a Mooney in their 80s…

Some people have been known to fly an airplane after serious health issues…

Sometimes it takes a whole community to keep this dream alive…  

Just when you think you can live by statistics… I was having a great discussion about 1950s British Sports cars with this 80yr old gent just yesterday… he had to excuse himself to go take a smoke break… 

Best regards,

-a-

[aviatoreb]

5 hours ago, PT20J said:

I was agreeing with your comment that I quoted regarding Unit74’s erroneous assertion and citing another source of data.

Skip

Sorry I misunderstood.  

[Glen Davis]

20 hours ago, Unit74 said:

I look at it from ROI. If I spend $50k, I want to use it for XX years. But yea, even if he gets a year out of it, if it makes him grin ear to ear for that year, its worth it to him I suppose. I wouldn't do it myself, but if I wanted to buy his plane, I'd be eggin' him on all day!

“Gets a year out of it” ……. I honestly believe, being painfully honest, I will get 10 years out of it. My father got his private at age 70. He bought a Grumman Tiger during his training and enjoyed it flying solo for 5 more years and dual, with me, for another 5 years.  

 

[Mooney in Oz]

1 hour ago, Glen Davis said:

My father got his private at age 70. He bought a Grumman Tiger during his training and enjoyed it flying solo for 5 more years and dual, with me, for another 5 years.  

That is so impressive and wonderful memories you’ll never forget.

I love reading stuff like this.

[Glen Davis]

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

Glen,

You have  accomplished many things…

 

What is your favorite animal charity?

Are you involved with pilots n paws or other moving pets charities?

 

 

Holy cow somebody is using stats from last century….
 

• A heart-attack outside of the hospital environment used to be deadly…
• Smoking was a way to get you killed before 60, on average…
• Cancer was a death sentence….

Modern technology, knowledge, and time have gone a long way to extend the lives of many people… Long enough to be flying a Mooney in their 80s…

Some people have been known to fly an airplane after serious health issues…

Sometimes it takes a whole community to keep this dream alive…  

Just when you think you can live by statistics… I was having a great discussion about 1950s British Sports cars with this 80yr old gent just yesterday… he had to excuse himself to go take a smoke break… 

Best regards,

-a-

I’ll elaborate on the animal stuff later. 
 

But regarding my panel upgrade, for 3 years I have been a pilot for the Coast Guard Auxiliary.  My aircraft is a “facility” for them. As such, under orders, I fly missions for the Coast Guard in my aircraft. I always have another CG pilot with me and often an observer. Many are older than I am. The Dept of Homeland Security compensates me approximately $100/hour while I’m on a mission, plus expenses. We are in communication with the Coast Guard ground facility every 15 minutes. Our typical missions are looking for vessels in distress, environmental hazards including oil spills, wildlife in distress and search and rescue. The Coast Guard has trained me including sending me to Oklahoma City for training in the high altitude chamber as well as underwater evacuation. I had to pass these programs to be a CG pilot.  I get retested every year. Even at the advanced age of 64 they still let me fly!  I guess no one has told them at 64 I have one foot in the grave.  Glen

 

[toto]

2 hours ago, Glen Davis said:

I have been a pilot for the Coast Guard Auxiliary

This is fascinating.  Until your post, I'd never heard of the Coast Guard Auxiliary. 

For anyone else with a "TIL" moment, it's like the CAP but for the Coast Guard

http://wow.uscgaux.info/content.php?unit=053&category=aviation-training

[Speed Merchant]

On 7/3/2021 at 4:47 PM, Glen Davis said:

I’m upgrading the AP. 

Glen

If you are ever visiting Vero Beach I would  be happy to let you see what I did to my 201. I would be glad to fly it with you. I did a G3X, G5,750XI, GFC-500, 355 and already had a 345. If you kept your 530W and made the other changes I made you would be under your cash limit. Sebastian Communications did the install. They stand behind their work they were great to work with.

Curt

[ArtVandelay]

43 minutes ago, Speed Merchant said:

Glen

If you are ever visiting Vero Beach I would  be happy to let you see what I did to my 201.

Curt

Curt,

I’m just down road and will be upgrading soon, is that invite for anyone?

Tom