Viva Las Vegas !

[ilovecornfields]

@N9201A. Wow! You said that way better that I could have.

[carusoam]

MS word of the day...  Jingoistic...

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/jingoism
 

Nice writing skills demonstrated by 201A

 

Best regards,

-a-

[Ross Taylor]

After my last post, I'd decided to bow out and let others continue arguing their point.  I really don't have a point or a position...and if anyone reads my prior posts on this matter, you'll see that I quoted our Arizona Department of Health Services (or articles that quoted them) about what's going on here.  I wasn't just nay saying or calling others names.   For those just catching up, here's a quick summary.

A couple of weeks ago, someone posted a photo from a newly-opened restaurant/bar and in that photo people weren't wearing masks.  Enter the authoritative warning that all the reckless Arizonans were going to die and we could check back in, in a couple weeks, to see if anyone was left alive here to comment.  Yes, I'm being hyperbolic in the hope of being a little lighthearted here.  Fast forward two weeks and we're given an article headlining a spike in cases in Arizona as confirmation that our reckless behavior is leading to an increase in cases here.  I posted an alternate possibility...that the increase in cases might be the result of greatly increased testing, which was significantly ramped up.  Because, of course, even without any change in behavior if you increase testing you'll increase the number of positive cases found.  But that was dismissed and the metric changed to the percentage of positive cases, not the number referenced in the article...and the numbers offered to show an increase in positive case percentage don't match what our State is reporting.  Not wanting to argue, especially with changing metrics, I thought it best to just back off and not fan the flames.

But since I'm the "esteemed community member" mentioned above, I feel it's appropriate to address a few things.

First, since ADHS data is 4-7 days old, and there's some incubation period before corona-virus symptoms appear, would our behavioral changes and the opening of businesses a couple of weeks ago even be showing up in the data yet?  Yes, we're seeing more cases...but we're also testing more.  Since that's not a good measure, let's look at ICU usage - that's remained statistically flat since May 14th (see Arizona DHS chart, below).  Okay, then let's look at corona-virus hospitalizations - oh, that's going down and has, consistently, trended downward since May 1 (see that chart, below, too).  All of these are from our official state data:  https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php   Let me be clear, I'm not an authority here.  But why does anyone who points out conflicting data, or asks questions, become a flat Earther or other easy-to-dismiss conspiracy theorist?   This guy has a PhD and seems to be an authority, too.  He's just an example of many who present alternate views.  Why do those of us, lay people, who read and examine both sides become labeled?

I don't know if I should believe him or not.  I just present him to point out that there's more than one authoritative view out there and I'd ask for a bit more kindness and compassion in these discussions.  Presenting quality data sways people...insulting others doesn't and, really, when people stoop to insulting their "opponent" it causes me to question their motivation or confirmation bias.

I presume that referring to me as esteemed was meant sarcastically since the post went on to imply that I (or, at least, those who...like I did...raise questions) may be an unsafe pilot because I question the data and reporting.  I am really surprised by the level of disrespect shown to those who dare to question an authority, especially when there are other authorities saying the exact opposite...or when the data upon which presumptions are made are shown to be suspect...or when the diversity of expert opinions is just plain confusing to those of us who aren't experts.  People who question the ever-changing guidance and models are called names or dismissed as wackos.   And the name calling, or judgmental assignment of derogatory terms or attributes, takes away from the opportunity to have a civil and respectful discussion.

So, I'll move permanently away from this thread and focus on those more flight related themes...so that I can improve my flying and hopefully restore your confidence in someone flying along with me.  (That, actually, was said with a light heart and joking spirit...once you've been shot at, it's harder to get offended or take as much seriously). 

Here are the most current Az charts about ICU usage and hospitalizations with COVID symptoms:

 

[ilovecornfields]

@Ross Taylor, I’m sorry this is so confusing for you. I did offer to try to explain it to you but you declined the offer. I appreciate you sharing your alternative perspective on what transpired, so please indulge me while I share mine:

1. Someone posted a picture of people at a restaurant behaving irresponsibly in the middle of a pandemic, then bragged about how they persuaded their minimum-wage server to take off his mask to get a bigger tip.

2. I suggested that this behavior would lead to an increase in cases and recommended we check back in two weeks, then didn’t really think about it.

3. I ran across an article while reading the news about skyrocketing cases in AZ and checked the publicly available stats - sure enough caes shot up.

4. You made the claim that the only reason cases increased was that you were doing a wonderful job of increasing tests and that the true number of infections hadn’t increased.

5. I tried to point out that if what you were saying was true (same number of infections but more testing) then the % of positive tests would have gone down, but it went UP which means more tests AND more infections. Apparently you didn’t understand this and didn’t ask for clarification, so you called it “changing the metric.” I’m sorry you don’t understand the math, but that doesn’t make it wrong (Edit: See link below which says the same thing).

6. You posted above, full of hyperbole by your own admission.

Sorry if this is confusing and doesn’t make sense to you. I’m also sorry things aren’t going the way you want them to go. I believe I pointed out that this minimization and rationalization don’t work well when dealing with public health emergencies, piloting or aircraft maintenance. Didn’t realize that was a controversial topic. Obviously there are those with the ability to communicate these things more clearly than I can.
 

Here is an example:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.azcentral.com/amp/3163102001

Edited June 6, 2020 by ilovecornfields
Added pictures and link.

[carusoam]

Focusing on the positive and good...

• methods.
• behaviors
• techniques
• what works
• what doesn’t work

Are helpful for everyone...

 

Taking stabs (Intended or not) at people whether you are... 

• right
• wrong
• not showing a side
• smarter than everyone
• have more experience

Isn’t helpful for anybody...
 

ILC, you are invited to take this subtle behavior quirk somewhere else...

We can’t afford to lose MSers...
 

Being abusive, or abrasive, makes people go away...

We spend plenty of time and effort to build the community, to share ideas regarding flying Mooneys safely and efficiently...

It makes no sense to spread negativity around here...

There are better places to engage in that...

Best regards,

-a-

[ilovecornfields]

@carusoam, I accept your invitation.

 

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

[GeeBee]

We will know in a week how this spreads, because there are thousands of people in the streets of MSP, ORD, NYC, ATL etc not social distancing. In fact it appears a little up close and personal.  The epidemiology and counter measures should become very apparent, very quickly. Either it explodes, or it does not and that will tell us a lot.

 

 

 

 

[bonal]

19 hours ago, ilovecornfields said:

@carusoam, I accept your invitation.

 

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

That's your half human side response. Think logically you need to keep providing information that is helpful to the discussion. This from someone that still thinks the earth is mostly flat.

[Andy95W]

@ilovecornfields-  I truly doubt that Anthony (carusoam) was asking that you leave permanently (at least I hope not).  You do provide a lot of unique insight that many of us find useful.

I'm with Bonal.  I hope you stay and continue to post.

[Tony Starke]

 

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Tony Starke

[N9201A]

As much as the opposing party would like this state of chaos to continue til the election, the people are sick and tired of it!
Besides, where are all the sick people? From what I hear on the news, they should be everywhere! I can't find them anywhere!

If by “opposing party,” you mean anyone not voting for a Draft-Dodging, P-Grabbing Grifter (those are all admitted and proven), well, I resemble that remark. No, neither me nor anyone I know wants the state of chaos nourished by the current leadership maintained, but that’s why we vote.

As far as sick people, looks like you need only be patient. Arizona is climbing the charts, sadly...

I’ve met enough people who’ve had this and lived to tell about it to know I don’t want it, and that doesn’t count the ones who have not survived.

While I hope no one sees this personally, science (and Darwin) will prevail, as usual.

[Ross Taylor]

As an Arizona resident, who actually doesn't have a "side" but who follows the data...I'll point out that every story I've seen highlights the increase in cases.  Some of those stories even show the positive case increase chart from the Arizona Department of Health Services.  And many do give passing mention of the increase in testing.  But they don't show the other charts from the same State site.  The hospitalization numbers in the article screenshot above do look concerning, but they don't match the numbers on the official ADHS site at https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

In fact, on the official site, the hospitalizations seem to be dropping significantly.  Here's today's charts of hospitalizations and ICU usage.  It looks, to me, like hospitalizations are dropping and ICU bed usage is trending upward just slightly.  So, who to believe?  The Arizona Republic or the ADHS website?   And, if the official State data is right and there are more positives but fewer hospitalizations, isn't that actually a good sign?   No wonder people are confused and arguing.

 

[EricJ]

43 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

As an Arizona resident, who actually doesn't have a "side" but who follows the data...I'll point out that every story I've seen highlights the increase in cases.  Some of those stories even show the positive case increase chart from the Arizona Department of Health Services.  And many do give passing mention of the increase in testing.  But they don't show the other charts from the same State site.  The hospitalization numbers in the article screenshot above do look concerning, but they don't match the numbers on the official ADHS site at https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

In fact, on the official site, the hospitalizations seem to be dropping significantly.  Here's today's charts of hospitalizations and ICU usage.  It looks, to me, like hospitalizations are dropping and ICU bed usage is trending upward just slightly.  So, who to believe?  The Arizona Republic or the ADHS website?   And, if the official State data is right and there are more positives but fewer hospitalizations, isn't that actually a good sign?   No wonder people are confused and arguing.

 

 

I track the ADHS data and Maricopa county data daily.   I've never been able to reconcile the daily update data that they publish and these charts.   They seem to be totally unrelated.   I know there's some data scrubbing that happens, to correct dates, etc., but the correlation just doesn't seem to be there.  The state and county have since reversed some of their positions since the Banner (AZ's largest hospital chain) health director came out and said they're actually near capacity in ICUs and all of the ECMO machines are in use.   Just in the last few days the Maricopa County health director has reversed her previous stance and is now saying that masks are actually a good idea.    In short, the representations that the state and county have been making don't seem to match the available data or what the hospitals are saying.

Here's my daily hospitalization chart, using the county's own published daily (i.e., not post-processed) data.  There is a weekly cycle because some of the reporting nearly stops on the weekends and catches back up during the week.  The big spike that goes off the top of the chart was a one-day increase of 317 cases which I have not seen publicly explained.  At the time the county health director made a public statement saying the county hospitalization numbers were declining and anything to the contrary was overflow cases from the Navajo nation.   The Banner health ICU capacity statements have come out since then.

The ICU data tells a similar tale, that it had started to decelerate but has since accelerated again.   The deaths were on a quadratic trajectory for a long time but have since settled into a steep (~9/day) linear trend.

In any case, the county's own data shows that hospitalizations due to the virus are increasing, not decreasing.







 

Edited June 14, 2020 by EricJ

[Ross Taylor]

Thanks @EricJ - I appreciate the "no BS" data discussion.  So much of what we see is conflicting.  Be well...and thank you!

[carusoam]

Finding my county data is often a game of hide and seek...

It showed up again today...

Deaths have leveled off at one per day or so....

People’s memory seems to fade way too quickly...

Lots of mask wearing is still a good idea... social distancing as well...

(this is my East Coast situation)

We got viral spread without the ability to know what was allowing it to spread so quickly...
 

being on the leading edge, isn’t always a good thing...

Best regards,

-a-

[MooneyMitch]

Our California governor has ordered mask wearing indoors when social distancing of 6 feet cannot be maintained.........................So, ironic this is.........I never, ever thought I'd be wearing a mask going into my local bank without repercussions !

[bonal]

4 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

Our California governor has ordered mask wearing indoors when social distancing of 6 feet cannot be maintained.........................So, ironic this is.........I never, ever thought I'd be wearing a mask going into my local bank without repercussions !

Actually this is not correct he is mandating wearing masks "outdoors" in public spaces when distancing is not possible there are exceptions but we are going backwards.  You have just entered the twilight zone 

[MARZ]

I recall seeing a comparison of wearing a mask to keep a virus out to putting up a chain link fence around your yard to keep the mosquitoes at bay. 

And from my days of hazmat respirators -  one must be properly trained it its use, not have any facial hair and perform a fit test. 

So if you are looking to wear a "mask" as a preventative measure to catching something...... draw your own conclusions. 

If you are wearing it to prevent spreading it to others, I would submit you shouldn't be out in the general population to begin with.

Regardless, your choice to wear, or not to wear, is that - your choice.  

However I must say - I gaze at amazement on the variety of folks "wearing" a "mask" that  

• Droops below their nose
• Is hanging below their chin (why wear it at all?)
• is gaping from their face
• Hasn't been washed for days
• is visibly damp
• is being worn as a fashion statement
• is being worn as a political statement

 

[kortopates]

Actually this is not correct he is mandating wearing masks "outdoors" in public spaces when distancing is not possible there are exceptions but we are going backwards.  You have just entered the twilight zone 

Indeed, we are going backwards because the number of COVID cases is going up by every measure #, percentage of tested, hospital cases etc because in part people aren’t taking the basic precautions.
Data shows wearing a mask helps reduce getting infected by aerosols by a factor of >3x.
Let’s be smart about it.

In the cockpit I’ve learned the surgical style flat mask or cloth don’t interfere with the mike and are best in protection for both you and person next to you whereas a respirator style mask interferes with the mike. Although an N95 respirator style provides the best protection to the wearer it still exhaust aerosols, so not as good for the person next to you unless you both wear them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hank]

17 minutes ago, MARZ said:

If you are wearing it to prevent spreading it to others

This is the explanation that I keep seeing and hearing. Not becuase the wearer is sick and should be at home, but because so many people have the virus but no symptoms. some develop symptoms after several days' capability of spreading it to others through droplets from nose / mouth, some never develop symptoms but remain contagious for an unknown period.

So please wear your mask to protect me!

[Shadrach]

33 minutes ago, MARZ said:

I recall seeing a comparison of wearing a mask to keep a virus out to putting up a chain link fence around your yard to keep the mosquitoes at bay. 

And from my days of hazmat respirators -  one must be properly trained it its use, not have any facial hair and perform a fit test. 

So if you are looking to wear a "mask" as a preventative measure to catching something...... draw your own conclusions. 

If you are wearing it to prevent spreading it to others, I would submit you shouldn't be out in the general population to begin with.

Regardless, your choice to wear, or not to wear, is that - your choice.  

However I must say - I gaze at amazement on the variety of folks "wearing" a "mask" that  

• Droops below their nose
• Is hanging below their chin (why wear it at all?)
• is gaping from their face
• Hasn't been washed for days
• is visibly damp
• is being worn as a fashion statement
• is being worn as a political statement

 

I'm not sure what is more ridiculous, the people who seemingly cannot figure out how to properly affix a mask to their face or the notion that using a secured cloth mask to cover the two mucus membranes where the virus is dispersed and/or received is the same as trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain link fence.

I used to think the phrase "hell is other people" was so cynical. Sadly I am reevaluating. 

 

[MooneyMitch]

4 hours ago, bonal said:

Actually this is not correct he is mandating wearing masks "outdoors" in public spaces when distancing is not possible there are exceptions but we are going backwards.  You have just entered the twilight zone 

Whoops, I must have misunderstood...............however, I did read [if you can believe what you read!] the following;

"People will be required to wear masks or other coverings in public spaces, including while taking public transportation, seeking medical care, shopping and in most work scenarios."

One could assume that "shopping" infers indoors.  With that, I suspect being that my bank is indoors [as opposed to the drive-through feature],  we'll be required to wear the mask in the bank, just like the tellers are doing...................so back to my comment.................I get to wear a mask into my bank without scaring folks in the bank... 

[Hank]

2 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

 back to my comment.................I get to wear a mask into my bank without scaring folks in the bank... 

That's alright. If your mask is too scary, they still have that little hidden button . . . .  

[aviatoreb]

7 hours ago, Hank said:through droplets from nose / mouth, some never develop symptoms but remain contagious for an unknown period.

So please wear your mask to protect me!

... no Hank.  It’s not for you.  It’s for all of us.  Masks are to slow the general transmission through the population to reduce the likelihood of a flare up.  If you happen to benefit from someone else wearing a mask the so be it.

[aviatoreb]

6 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

Whoops, I must have misunderstood...............however, I did read [if you can believe what you read!] the following;

"People will be required to wear masks or other coverings in public spaces, including while taking public transportation, seeking medical care, shopping and in most work scenarios."

One could assume that "shopping" infers indoors.  With that, I suspect being that my bank is indoors [as opposed to the drive-through feature],  we'll be required to wear the mask in the bank, just like the tellers are doing...................so back to my comment.................I get to wear a mask into my bank without scaring folks in the bank... 

I’m actually worried / what’s a proper bank robber supposed to do these days if they want to stand out in a crowd?!!  Stick em up!

i tried going to the bank but all they had was the drive through running.