Airplane ownership CV19

[bonal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

very interesting 

ARGH...I wish I could figure out how to attach a link on this stupid iPad 

Edited April 27, 2020 by bonal

[bonal]

Oh, I guess if you just make a stupid iPad comment then the link starts working 

[ilovecornfields]

2 hours ago, bonal said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

very interesting 

ARGH...I wish I could figure out how to attach a link on this stupid iPad 

“Interesting” is a good word. The video was sent to me by someone from our health department (Kern county is just a couple of counties over from us) as an example of someone who does NOT understand statistics (in the spirit of full disclosure, I couldn’t get past the 7:00 mark where he generalizes the results of NYC to the entire state of NY and talks about the millions of people with COVID).

Pretty sure that if you look long enough, you’ll find some idiot on YouTube that supports what you already think. I think I made a statement before about how not all opinions are equally informed.

I happen to know that he’s already been reported to the medical board (and not by me). His comments are creating quite a stir in Bakersfield where the conspiracy theorists have already been quite active on Facebook for the past week (I have family that lives there).

I agree. Quite interesting.

[David_H]

2 hours ago, bonal said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

very interesting 

Those reporters were working extremely hard to set up conflicts during the briefing instead of trying to get to the facts.

It's fortunate that it's an unedited video put out for all to see. There's no telling how the story would have been presented in a newspaper.

[DXB]

3 hours ago, bonal said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

very interesting 

ARGH...I wish I could figure out how to attach a link on this stupid iPad 

Just for a little perspective on this.  The presentation is by Dan Erickson, DO. Dr. Erickson did not complete a residency, is not boarded in emergency medicine or any other specialty, and has no credentials in immunology, infectious disease, epidemiology, or clinical research. That much is apparent from his presentation, which is full of misunderstandings, half truths, and blatant lies. I couldn't withstand more than 15 minutes of listening.

The truth is that defining population immunity and the role of testing is as complex and challenging at the moment as it is important. People really want to believe a comforting answer here and are eager for anyone authoritative-sounding to support that hope - hence the shockingly wide circulation of this video. It's a perfect setup for hucksters - I think this guy owns some struggling urgent care centers and is trying to get people in the door for tests. Anyone saying they know the answer right now with exuberant confidence  is completely full of it.

 

[ilovecornfields]

Without prompting, my sister-in-law sent me this rebuttal of his points. I applaud whoever wrote this because I do not have enough antiemetics in my home pharmacy to make it through half the video but it looks like this guy watched the whole thing. Must have a cast iron gut.

Sincerely,

Someone who is board certified and completed (two) residencies and a degree in public health.

[DXB]

3 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

 

What's perhaps most surprising about this analysis is that a thoughtul, knowledgeable academic physician was able to watch that video all the way through without having a seizure 

[BorealOne]

I made it to the 10m mark. I'm an attorney, not a physician, but a big part of my practice is critiquing expert evidence presented in regulatory hearings, and i've learned a few things along the way. This won't shock anyone here, but most people don't understand evidence, much less statistics, which makes it really easy to get stuff wrong, or less charitably, to use the "numbers you like" to persuade yourself or others about the outcome you want. Numbers don't lie, but people do. I've lost track of the number of times that I've examined experts and forced them to 'qualify' conclusions that can't be supported because of a couple of hard statistical truths:  1/ small samples are worse than useless, because they tend to exaggerate errors, and  2/ non-random, non-representative samples (ie symptomatic persons tested for COVID) can't tell you much of anything about a population as a whole. The good Dr. Erickson doesn't seem to understand either of those concepts.

[Hank]

14 minutes ago, BorealOne said:

I made it to the 10m mark. I'm an attorney, not a physician, but a big part of my practice is critiquing expert evidence presented in regulatory hearings, and i've learned a few things along the way. This won't shock anyone here, but most people don't understand evidence, much less statistics, which makes it really easy to get stuff wrong, or less charitably, to use the "numbers you like" to persuade yourself or others about the outcome you want. Numbers don't lie, but people do. I've lost track of the number of times that I've examined experts and forced them to 'qualify' conclusions that can't be supported because of a couple of hard statistical truths:  1/ small samples are worse than useless, because they tend to exaggerate errors, and  2/ non-random, non-representative samples (ie symptomatic persons tested for COVID) can't tell you much of anything about a population as a whole. The good Dr. Erickson doesn't seem to understand either of those concepts.

To quote Samuel Clemens, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics."

[bonal]

Honestly, you guys and Fauci and Birx (spelling uncertain) won't be satisfied until half the population are on vents and the rest of us are killing ourselves because of total poverty. It's too bad that any good news or even hopeful news is just a pack of lies. 

Stupid f...ing Chinese virus. And of course no one will hold them responsible for what they unleashed on the world.

Edited April 27, 2020 by bonal

[bonal]

And I know you guys don't really want that for people and are working on this terrible situation with every bit of strength within you. But to listen to all the experts we are never going to get our lives back and the secondary affect of this the long term is going to be a disaster way worse than the medical issues of the virus. 

[Eight8Victor]

1 hour ago, bonal said:

Honestly, you guys and Fauci and Birx (spelling uncertain) won't be satisfied until half the population are on vents and the rest of us are killing ourselves because of total poverty. It's too bad that any good news or even hopeful news is just a pack of lies. 

Stupid f...ing Chinese virus. And of course no one will hold them responsible for what they unleashed on the world.

Hey @bonal, thanks for posting this. I'm no rocket surgeon or brain scientist but I am able to observe what’s going on in my community as well as what the media seem to be sensationalizing (not for ratings btw, cause the ratings suck) a night and day difference. It's funny how hard the “reporters” are working to continue the fear mongering and not even allowing the docs to deliver their report. Then you have the highly intelligent and educated posters here that poo-poo these guys’ credentials and make derogatory statements about anyone who doesn’t fall lockstep with the propaganda machine. Yes, I'm a conspiracy theorist, because there is a conspiracy. It's so goddamn evident in the media, Hollywood, entertainment industry that anyone who denies it must be either involved or just (you know).
 

If you want to take a break from this stupid game, hop in Snoopy and fly on over to the east coast. We have two spare bedrooms, and plenty of toilet paper. Here’s a typical week for me during the Chinese flu pandemic. Sunday- mountain biking on an amazing trail that transitions from the pine woods through a real swamp and back. Home and a shower then afternoon poker in a private hangar. My fellow poker players are doctors and airline pilots. No temperature checking at the door and no masks. (I am pleased to announce that I have not donned a mask  since this started). Monday- I've got to make a few phone calls in the A.M. to try to maintain what's left of my business then more biking or maybe fly over to the Atlantic coast and do some fishing with my buddy in his boat on the intercostal waterway. Men’s bible study in the evening. (Masks not required) Tuesday- morning calls again and maybe an appointment, get my allergy shot and then take the sports car out and hunt down some  corvettes. Wednesday- morning calls, yard work (you need not participate but it is therapeutic).  Take the sports car out again. Pick up BBQ downtown for dinner. Thursday- morning calls, More biking or hitting the heavy bag (wife is a certified coach). Maybe swim, but the pool is too cold for me right now. Drive the sports car to the airport and take the Mooney for a spin. Friday- Office day, payroll and calls.  Visit my friends’ manufacturing facility where they make quality stuff right here in the USA (very cool and no masks required).  Cook some steaks on the Weber and settle in for Better Call Saul. Saturday- Ah, up before dawn, grab some breakfast sandwiches at the bait-house/convenience store (no masks required), on the water as the sun rises and chasing the red fish while enjoying the incredible beauty of nature. Salt air, wildlife, oyster bars, sunburn, it doesn't get any better. If you haven't had fresh redfish blackened in a cast iron skillet, you don't know what you're missing. So come on over brother, for a real Florida vacation. 
 

 

[Eight8Victor]

Oh, and by the way, the video has been removed by YouTube No, there is no conspiracy folks, nothing to see here, move along now. SMH

For those of you who didn't get a chance to watch, it was a couple of docs discussing data they compiled from their practice. Data they referred to as actual, unfiltered and non-political. They are highly suspect of the government and media response to the Wuhan virus and suggest that the lock down has done more harm than good. Maybe you can find it elsewhere on the web. Try a search for Dr. Dan Erikson.

[PT20J]

1 hour ago, Eight8Victor said:

Oh, and by the way, the video has been removed by YouTube No, there is no conspiracy folks, nothing to see here, move along now. SMH

For those of you who didn't get a chance to watch, it was a couple of docs discussing data they compiled from their practice. Data they referred to as actual, unfiltered and non-political. They are highly suspect of the government and media response to the Wuhan virus and suggest that the lock down has done more harm than good. Maybe you can find it elsewhere on the web. Try a search for Dr. Dan Erikson.

I don't seen a conspiracy. I had no trouble finding it on Youtube, or the Public Health response.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/public-health-responds-to-claims-from-doctors-at-accelerated-urgent-care

 

[Eight8Victor]

29 minutes ago, PT20J said:

I don't seen a conspiracy. I had no trouble finding it on Youtube, or the Public Health response.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/public-health-responds-to-claims-from-doctors-at-accelerated-urgent-care

 

Click @bonal link. Gone, with a standard message. Your link only shows part 2.

 

[Eight8Victor]

33 minutes ago, PT20J said:

I don't seen a conspiracy. I had no trouble finding it on Youtube, or the Public Health response.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw

https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/public-health-responds-to-claims-from-doctors-at-accelerated-urgent-care

 

What makes public health’s response more credible? 
 

[ilovecornfields]

1 hour ago, Eight8Victor said:

Hey @bonal, thanks for posting this. I'm no rocket surgeon or brain scientist but I am able to observe what’s going on in my community as well as what the media seem to be sensationalizing (not for ratings btw, cause the ratings suck) a night and day difference. It's funny how hard the “reporters” are working to continue the fear mongering and not even allowing the docs to deliver their report. Then you have the highly intelligent and educated posters here that poo-poo these guys’ credentials and make derogatory statements about anyone who doesn’t fall lockstep with the propaganda machine. Yes, I'm a conspiracy theorist, because there is a conspiracy. It's so goddamn evident in the media, Hollywood, entertainment industry that anyone who denies it must be either involved or just (you know).
 

If you want to take a break from this stupid game, hop in Snoopy and fly on over to the east coast. We have two spare bedrooms, and plenty of toilet paper. Here’s a typical week for me during the Chinese flu pandemic. Sunday- mountain biking on an amazing trail that transitions from the pine woods through a real swamp and back. Home and a shower then afternoon poker in a private hangar. My fellow poker players are doctors and airline pilots. No temperature checking at the door and no masks. (I am pleased to announce that I have not donned a mask  since this started). Monday- I've got to make a few phone calls in the A.M. to try to maintain what's left of my business then more biking or maybe fly over to the Atlantic coast and do some fishing with my buddy in his boat on the intercostal waterway. Men’s bible study in the evening. (Masks not required) Tuesday- morning calls again and maybe an appointment, get my allergy shot and then take the sports car out and hunt down some  corvettes. Wednesday- morning calls, yard work (you need not participate but it is therapeutic).  Take the sports car out again. Pick up BBQ downtown for dinner. Thursday- morning calls, More biking or hitting the heavy bag (wife is a certified coach). Maybe swim, but the pool is too cold for me right now. Drive the sports car to the airport and take the Mooney for a spin. Friday- Office day, payroll and calls.  Visit my friends’ manufacturing facility where they make quality stuff right here in the USA (very cool and no masks required).  Cook some steaks on the Weber and settle in for Better Call Saul. Saturday- Ah, up before dawn, grab some breakfast sandwiches at the bait-house/convenience store (no masks required), on the water as the sun rises and chasing the red fish while enjoying the incredible beauty of nature. Salt air, wildlife, oyster bars, sunburn, it doesn't get any better. If you haven't had fresh redfish blackened in a cast iron skillet, you don't know what you're missing. So come on over brother, for a real Florida vacation. 
 

 

Ok, I’ll admit it. You figured it out. It totally IS a conspiracy and I’m in on it. I’m actually buying shares of whoever makes Plaquenil with my Conspiracy Payments right now. I thought I could outsmart your guys buy using facts and science, but some of you are far too clever to fall for that.

I actually love what’s going on right now. I love homeschooling my kid and having him get angry since he hasn’t played with his fiends for a month. I love not having any time to myself. I love it when people are scared to go to the ER so they die at home. Really brings me pleasure when our pay is cut 50% because ER volume is down and the hospital has to lay people off because revenue is down. Love getting bruises from wearing an N95 10 hours a day and watching my co-workers break down. Get tickled pink when my fiends with small businesses tell me how they can’t cover their overhead, even with the loans and struggle to make their mortgage and feed their families. 

Get a clue.  None of us here are “in on the conspiracy.” This is a crappy situation and we’re trying to use facts and reasoning to find the least awful of the crappy choices we have to choose from. We criticized that guy not because we disagree with him, but because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. We don’t get through this by believing what we want to believe and doing what’s convenient. How many other places is life is that an effective approach?

I’m sorry you don’t like what I have to say. If I’ve made a mistake in my reasoning please point it out, but saying “I don’t like your science so I’m not going to believe in it” isn’t exactly the most enlightened approach.

"The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it."

[PT20J]

On 4/26/2020 at 2:29 PM, David_H said:

It would be interesting to see how people would react if they were presented with modelling data that includes a forecast timeline instead of uninformative cartoon models that have almost no meaning. Just because someone isn't an Epidemiologist doesn't mean they don't have the ability to understand and interpret presented data.

CDC has links to several predictive models:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

[ilovecornfields]

Just now, Eight8Victor said:

What makes public health’s response more credible? 
 

That they understand the most basic concepts of epidemiology and biostatistics, unlike the guy in the video for a start...

[Eight8Victor]

4 hours ago, bonal said:

Honestly, you guys and Fauci and Birx (spelling uncertain) won't be satisfied until half the population are on vents and the rest of us are killing ourselves because of total poverty. It's too bad that any good news or even hopeful news is just a pack of lies. 

Stupid f...ing Chinese virus. And of course no one will hold them responsible for what they unleashed on the world.

Yeah, they are still collecting a paycheck. To hell with us uneducated, conspiracy theorist in-bred rednecks. Let them eat cake.

 

[PT20J]

Just now, Eight8Victor said:

What makes public health’s response more credible? 
 

I didn't say it was. 

I used to work with an engineer who often said, "If you search for a rationalization, you will find one." It's the same with expert opinions. I can probably find a PhD somewhere that has data to show we never landed on the moon and the Earth is flat. I tend to go with the preponderance of the evidence, but that's just me.

Skip

[ilovecornfields]

This just in! My professional organizations apparently also in on The Conspiracy. Let’s see how many seconds it takes rogue one to sad face this post? (I admire your perseverance!) For those who don’t know, ACEP and AAEM rarely agree on anything...

Edited April 28, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[carusoam]

That kind of goes in the scary file...

I do appreciate the folks around MS...

They are here for a reason... all about the Mooney life....

They happen to have some side knowledge... Some work in emergency rooms... some a dental office... Some may be lawyers, accountants, mechanics, machinists, STC writers, magazine writers, retired engineers, artists, all hard working, good people....

We even have a guy around here that has spent a good deal of time dealing with safety issues... his safety insight is incredibly helpful in some of our MS conversations...

If you discount the people around MS... you are shutting out part of the audience you are writing to.... (at best).

If you discount somebody for not having a strong background or faith in science...   (that’s just mean...).

It takes effort to be nice to everyone, even if you know better, or know more, than they do...

 

The Virus situation plane sucks... the losses are getting closer and closer... directly affecting families in our community...

Have faith... God, People, Laws of physics...

Expect things to change, rapidly, and often...

When the facts change, expect the logic to change to match...

Always be looking for an independent resource, to check your facts... just like having an independent provider for a PPI...

Trust, but verify...

The nice thing about having faith.... it can help you feel more relaxed about the whole Covid thing...

PP thoughts only, my church is broadcasting their presentations over the internet while our community is at home...

Looking forward to being able to run on the jogging trails in the park.... good for both mental and physical health....

Definitely a huge cognitive challenge to work non-stop long days daisy-chained together...  the drive home can be a killer.

Use your checklists...  

Best regards,

-a-

[Andy95W]

On 4/19/2020 at 6:18 PM, Andy95W said:

In this day and age, it seems most people trust the news sources that support their own opinion.

Evidently it's not just news sources. 

People trust the scientific experts, data, and studies that support their own opinions.  And then shout with disdain at any who don't agree.

When did Americans stop trying to see both sides of a story?  

[Eight8Victor]

3 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

Ok, I’ll admit it. You figured it out. It totally IS a conspiracy and I’m in on it. I’m actually buying shares of whoever makes Plaquenil with my Conspiracy Payments right now. I thought I could outsmart your guys buy using facts and science, but some of you are far too clever to fall for that.

I actually love what’s going on right now. I love homeschooling my kid and having him get angry since he hasn’t played with his fiends for a month. I love not having any time to myself. I love it when people are scared to go to the ER so they die at home. Really brings me pleasure when our pay is cut 50% because ER volume is down and the hospital has to lay people off because revenue is down. Love getting bruises from wearing an N95 10 hours a day and watching my co-workers break down. Get tickled pink when my fiends with small businesses tell me how they can’t cover their overhead, even with the loans and struggle to make their mortgage and feed their families. 

Get a clue.  None of us here are “in on the conspiracy.” This is a crappy situation and we’re trying to use facts and reasoning to find the least awful of the crappy choices we have to choose from. We criticized that guy not because we disagree with him, but because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. We don’t get through this by believing what we want to believe and doing what’s convenient. How many other places is life is that an effective approach?

I’m sorry you don’t like what I have to say. If I’ve made a mistake in my reasoning please point it out, but saying “I don’t like your science so I’m not going to believe in it” isn’t exactly the most enlightened approach.

"The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it."

Not in on the conspiracy? Why did you parrot the media and state that the president said we should inject ourselves with lysol when he didn't say it?  Did you even read the transcript or just believe a story that supported your opinion? That kind of statement really diminishes your credibility and position.

Science is not exact so how can it be true? It’s really just a best guess. 36 years ago science revealed that the earth was entering another ice age...fail. Are eggs the perfect protein or loaded with deadly cholesterol? I don't know, this one changes every few years as science disproves itself. Science gave us models that have consistently failed to materialize time and again with this virus.
 

You say this is a crappy situation. The only crappy thing about it that I see locally is businesses all around me are failing and people are not able to make mortage payments and other financial obligations. I have friends who are scared to leave their house. Thats f-ed up! No, I don't like your science because it's a clusterfuck of misinformation. 
 

You must be a smart guy but I don't get why you constantly berate anyone who disagrees with you? It's not a good strategy for winning friends and influencing people. You should be more clever than that.