Airplane ownership CV19

[steingar]

So now I'm even more worried.  A long talk with a pathologist friend of mine.  In her locality no one gets COVID on their death certificate.  They died of respiratory failure.  Not unusual, this is how things usually go.  But we're in the middle of a pandemic, and can't do what we normally do.  

If this is in wide practice, and I suspect it is, COVID deaths could be vastly underreported.

[Ross Taylor]

1 hour ago, steingar said:

So now I'm even more worried.  A long talk with a pathologist friend of mine.  In her locality no one gets COVID on their death certificate.  They died of respiratory failure.  Not unusual, this is how things usually go.  But we're in the middle of a pandemic, and can't do what we normally do.  

If this is in wide practice, and I suspect it is, COVID deaths could be vastly underreported.

That practice seems contrary to the guidance issued for coding.  Is there someone more knowledgeable than I (that's most of ya...  ) who can decipher this?  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

[Shadrach]

2 hours ago, Ross Taylor said:

That practice seems contrary to the guidance issued for coding.  Is there someone more knowledgeable than I (that's most of ya...  ) who can decipher this?  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

Not my understanding either. Reading the guidance, it appears that if Covid was the last contributor in the string of commodities it is listed as immediate cause of death. Underlying causes are listed as well.

[M016576]

21 hours ago, chrisk said:

And being drafted is some how different than " being impressed into service aboard British warships in the 17-1800’" ?  My point was: the "involuntary service" wording was included as a consequence of the first American draft that occurred during the civil war.   Something that courts in the 1900's seemed to ignore

 

Ahh gotcha- I didn’t pick that up out of the original post... too subtle for my hard head, I guess!

[carusoam]

8 hours ago, Yooper Rocketman said:

 

We are an essential business to the transportation industry.  We fix governmental plow trucks, wreckers, log trucks (supplying pulp for toilet paper), ambulances, fire trucks, trucks hauling gasoline and food products.  I CAN'T have this virus go through my dealership.  I have no more issues with distancing or masking up when two need to complete a project close to each other.  The choice is that or masks on for their entire shift, and that's not likely to happen since they HATE THEM.

 

Tom

Correction.  There’s been 65 documented cases, BUT 11 Fatalities.  We would need the fatality count to increase by 30 times to match the normal flue fatality rate.  

Back in the day...

 I worked with engineers and machine mechanics that needed to gown up with masks, hats, booties, lab coats, beard covers, etc..... we were protecting the Sensitive product from the workers...  (They never had to do this before, unitl the FDA came to visit...)

The book of training, the procedures, the records....

It takes an extra 10 minutes just to get to the machines...

like flying a plane... you have to plan your bathroom breaks, lunch breaks... remember all your tools... because going back is just a pain... and another ten minutes each direction...

It takes a long time for everyone to get on board...

 

Today, was my first notification I have had, of somebody I knew personally, getting the virus, a simple Facebook post relayed... (prayers for that gentleman)...

The sad story supplies some extra motivation...

Working in close quarters is a tough one...

And using the PPE properly takes some extra diligence...

And for the costs... holy cow expensive... Lots of DuPont and 3M...

PP thoughts only, not a clean room expert...

Best regards,

-a-

[carusoam]

8 hours ago, Yooper Rocketman said:

 

We are an essential business to the transportation industry.  We fix governmental plow trucks, wreckers, log trucks (supplying pulp for toilet paper), ambulances, fire trucks, trucks hauling gasoline and food products.  I CAN'T have this virus go through my dealership.  I have no more issues with distancing or masking up when two need to complete a project close to each other.  The choice is that or masks on for their entire shift, and that's not likely to happen since they HATE THEM.

 

Tom

Correction.  There’s been 65 documented cases, BUT 11 Fatalities.  We would need the fatality count to increase by 30 times to match the normal flue fatality rate.  

Back in the day...

 I worked with engineers and machine mechanics that needed to gown up with masks, hats, booties, lab coats, beard covers, etc..... we were protecting the Sensitive product from the workers and the workers from some of the products too...  (They never had to do this before, until the FDA came to visit...)

The book of training, the procedures, the records....

It takes an extra 10 minutes just to get to the machines...

like flying a plane... you have to plan your bathroom breaks, lunch breaks... remember all your tools... because going back is just a pain... and another ten minutes each direction...

It takes a long time for everyone to get on board...

 

Today, was my first notification I have had, of somebody I knew personally, getting the virus, a simple Facebook post relayed... (prayers for that gentleman)...

The sad story supplies some extra motivation...

Working in close quarters is a tough one...

And using the PPE properly takes some extra diligence...

And for the costs... holy cow expensive... Lots of DuPont and 3M...

Going into hiding too soon... or too late... has been disastrous... finding the right time has proven elusive...

I have found... Working with humans while being human is Extra challenging...   (Tom’s natural talent)

OSHA hasn’t given any C-19 guidance yet, have they? 

PP thoughts only, not a clean room expert...

Best regards,

-a-

[jonhop]

Today 57557 had to come out of its hangar quarantine because its pilot is quarantined at home close to French Valley Airport (F70). She will have to endure the harsh outdoor elements but at least she can count on more frequent love and attention in the form of operation. She is comforted in the fact that she has her own spot, is 6' apart from other aviation contaminated souls, and is wearing a custom fitted mask. 

[Hank]

1 hour ago, carusoam said:

Back in the day...

 I worked with engineers and machine mechanics that needed to gown up with masks, hats, booties, lab coats, beard covers, etc..... we were protecting the Sensitive product from the workers and the workers from some of the products too...  (They never had to do this before, until the FDA came to visit...)

The book of training, the procedures, the records....

It takes an extra 10 minutes just to get to the machines...

like flying a plane... you have to plan your bathroom breaks, lunch breaks... remember all your tools... because going back is just a pain... and another ten minutes each direction...

It takes a long time for everyone to get on board...

 

Today, was my first notification I have had, of somebody I knew personally, getting the virus, a simple Facebook post relayed... (prayers for that gentleman)...

The sad story supplies some extra motivation...

Working in close quarters is a tough one...

And using the PPE properly takes some extra diligence...

And for the costs... holy cow expensive... Lots of DuPont and 3M...

Going into hiding too soon... or too late... has been disastrous... finding the right time has proven elusive...

I have found... Working with humans while being human is Extra challenging...   (Tom’s natural talent)

OSHA hasn’t given any C-19 guidance yet, have they? 

PP thoughts only, not a clean room expert...

Best regards,

-a-

I've spent more years working in cleanrooms than I care to think about. And my 5-year office stint had me visiting more suppliers' cleanrooms than I can count, and the requirements for all were different.

Right now, work is at Level 5 Pandemic Response. We all gown up (knit cuffs at both wrists and both ankles, zipper to the neck and collar snapped shut, cleanroom-only shoes, hair nets, beard covers where needed--just like every day before), plus we all wear surgical masks, which must be covered with a beard cover. Outside the cleanroom, we all wear face masks, too, except homemade ones are permitted there. Lots of hand sanitizer around, alcohol wipes and bleach are everywhere, lots of extra cleaning (and I thought our cleanroom was already clean). Sometimes all I can smell in the main hallway is bleach . . . And never realized until recently how much I appreciate that scent . . . . Now the 4-person round tables in the breakroom have been replaced by rectangular 6-person tables with plexiglass shields abour two feet tall dividing them into six equal squares to limit cross contamination while eating with masks removed . . . .

And now several published studies at various locations around the country are documenting large numbers of general population testing, showing large numbers of people with CV19 antibodies, dropping the mortality rates down to 0.1-0.2%, comparable to the flu . . . . The long-discussed "unknown denominator" in the calculation is orders if magnjtude larger that has been used in the current models, whuch are several times larger than in the original models. Early projections were 3-4% mortality, now it's looking like 0.2% or less and people are being arrested for not following a governor's demand to stay out of city parks, or daring to walk their dog without wearing a face mask, as if these are actual laws passed by the legislature.

[amillet]

For those of you who want a hearty laugh. CAUTION. MATURE CANINE ADULT LANGUAGE

[MooneyMitch]

Man oh man, where did that dog learn such foul language???? 

[ilovecornfields]

13 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

Thats a simple one to answer. When 218 countries ALL with their own clinical advisers are all almost to a main (sorry Sweeden) singing from the same hymnsheet then you know the data is accurate, to think otherwise is akin to being a believer in a flat earth, Ne C’est pas?

Sweeden is different in that it too belives the data, but because of the size of the place and the lack of humans, furthermoremthe lack of old to young person human interaction, they have taken a slightly different approach.

@Hyett6420, you just don’t get it. I had to take a break from this place due to all the clueless people taking about how “educated” they were while simultaneously displaying such a fundamental lack of understanding of the most basic medical and epidemiological principles that it made me sick. I heard the discussion had improved somewhat, but this just crosses the line.

But now, a foreigner, telling Americans what to do?! That just chaps my hide! We’re not like everyone else. We’re Americans!  Just because the WHO and basically every public health department in the developed world has one approach to a global pandemic doesn’t mean we’re going to do it. We’re not sheep!

Pandemic? Schmandemic!

Social distancing? No way! My haircuts are too special for that!

Deadly virus? Liberal conspiracy to take away your rights!

You see, the difference  is that we’re Americans so we’re not subject to the same rules as everyone else in the world. Rules of epidemiology? No way. Physics, chemistry, biology - we’re better than that! 
 

We are leading the world in GAME CHANGING treatments that, despite several studies to the contrary, are going to change the course of the disease. We’re not going to led deadly arrhythmias and a lack of efficacy affect our treatment decisions because we have a leader who knows what’s up!

I don’t know if you heard, but our Fearless Leader, a genius among geniuses, just announced a cutting edge treatment a few days ago that will eradicate the disease! Can’t wait for him to try it out.

 

Don’t worry about us, we’ll be fine.

 

P.S. - Don’t ingest or inject Lysol or Clorox like Trump suggested. You’ll die.

[carusoam]

Expect that ILC has been working for 28 days straight...  

Welcome back, ILC!

Best regards,

-a-

[Ross Taylor]

And now it becomes political...  

[N201MKTurbo]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:43 PM, Eight8Victor said:

Have any of you business owners gotten any of the PPP money? None of my customers (small business owners) have received anything. I applied three weeks ago and nothing. Just curious.

The company my wife works for (she is the controller) received $320K last week. They are struggling to meet all the requirements for forgiveness. The biggest struggle is to get the executives in the company to agree that they need to follow the letter of the law.

[ilovecornfields]

34 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

And now it becomes political...  

Mr. Taylor, 

In case you had failed to notice, our (pathetic) response to this pandemic has been political since before the first case hit our shores.

In your spare time, feel free to peruse the previous threads on this topic (may I suggest “Flying in the time of coronavirus”) where your fellow aviators essentially say all of the things I paraphrased above.

Don’t get me wrong, I love taking about sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, Bayesian analysis, Fagans Nomogram and 4x4 tables. After all, I do have a graduate degree in public health, a doctorate of medicine, two board certification and deal with this on a daily basis.

But what do I know? Feel free to see how your fellow aviators claimed this was the same as all the other pandemics we have every few years, how they will defy social isolation rules, how our outcomes will be better because “we’re Americans” and they’re not.

I’m not making this stuff up. When you turn a global pandemic into a political issue (which our country has done from the beginning) lives are lost and economies are devastated.

I have not made this “become political.” It HAS BEEN all along. Instead of pretending it isn’t maybe we can acknowledge our biases and make an effort to see things more objectively. There is absolutely harm in “shutting things down.” There is also harm in completely opening things up and pretending the pandemic doesn’t exist because, gosh wouldn’t  it be nice if that were the case.

Sadly, over the last few years we’ve prepared ourselves to be unable to deal with such an event. News we disagree with is “fake news.” Facts that inconvenient to us are countered by “alternative facts.” When a scientists says something we don’t want to hear, we just simply decide “not to believe.” And we’ve willingly allowed this to happen to our society. 
 

Even on this thread people have said they don’t “trust” the experts at the CDC. Why should they? These are bright people with decades of schooling that have dedicated their lives to understanding and responding to this, but some news show anchor who couldn’t even define “epidemiology” six months ago says they’re wrong. Who to believe?!

Eventually, this will pass. My hope is that it will be followed by retrospection and the ability to see how the choices we have made have affected our lives and how different choices in the future might lead to more desirable outcomes. I’m not holding my breath for this, but it’s my hope. Although if I do hold my breath for 10 seconds that means I don’t have COVID, right? (Oh, wait. That’s fake too!).

Pardon my annoyance. Unlike other self proclaimed experts on the board (with no medical training) I’ve actually been dealing with this disease every day and when I tell family that their loved one likely died from COVID (which I have had to do) having an idiot on TV telling people to inject themselves with Clorox doesn’t exactly make things better.

Edited April 25, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[bonal]

42 minutes ago, Ross Taylor said:

And now it becomes political...  

Yes that's a shame. Folks have been very civil with expressing their views on what is a very sensitive and challenging subject. Is it related to aviation or Mooneys no but in a sense it is in that if we don't get our shit together real f....ing soon there won't be any hope of life as we know it ie, an economy that will support our wonderful hobby of flying our Mooney's. Airport restaurants will fail for good FBO's will close Avgas will be unavailable because the cost to produce vs demand will make it non profitable, on and on. I really hope that all the smartest people in the room that have successfully shut the world down out of fear are proven wrong. And when that happens they are at least educated enough to admit it.  Nothing in the history of our country has so quickly and effectively done more damage to our freedoms than this even 911 didn't force mom and pop business to close their doors yes it did make life different in many ways but nothing like what we're experiencing now. And now as people's patients are running out all we are seeing is more demanding self restrictions being recommended by our state and local governments. Local news Lake county CA total cases 6 with 5 fully recovered and the one remaining doing Ok.  Maybe if were lucky they will let us have a few months of freedom before we have to shut it all down again in the fall. And yes this issue is ripe with political differences but this thread has been mostly just a great discussion respectfully made.

[carusoam]

Gents,

The more time has passed... the more we know and understand about what is really going on with the virus...

We have a few people working on the front lines...

One of our MSers has reported people he was working with who have passed...

Please keep focussed on the details...

MS tradition... any threads that go off in a political direction get locked out...

We agree on many things...  politics and religion tend to turn the threads into an unusable typed wasteland...

(TV is where I go to see the political wasteland... don’t bring it here...)

Stay focussed please... 

Best regards,

-a-

 

[ilovecornfields]

1 minute ago, carusoam said:

Gents,

The more time has passed... the more we know and understand about what is really going on with the virus...

We have a few people working on the front lines...

One of our MSers has reported people he was working with who have passed...

Please keep focussed on the details...

MS tradition... any threads that go off in a political direction get locked out...

We agree on many things...  politics and religion tend to turn the threads into an unusable typed wasteland...

(TV is where I go to see the political wasteland... don’t bring it here...)

Stay focussed please... 

Best regards,

-a-

 

My apologies. I would not want to shut the thread down by introducing my biases in the discussion.

I’ll go crawl back in my cave and come out in few months to see how things settled. My antibody test results should be back Monday so maybe that will put me it a better mood. 

[bonal]

ILC please stay out front I have always appreciated your comments on many fronts and obviously your knowledge here would be most valuable. When I started this I was suffering from a severe toothache and my dentist was closed because of the virus. This lasted for several days due to an infection this can sure make one into an angry bear.

Whatever your doing out there we appreciate it and hope for your strength and endurance. 

[carusoam]

25 minutes ago, ilovecornfields said:

My apologies. I would not want to shut the thread down by introducing my biases in the discussion.

I’ll go crawl back in my cave and come out in few months to see how things settled. My antibody test results should be back Monday so maybe that will put me it a better mood. 

ILC,  I think you may have missed my prior post...

1 hour ago, carusoam said:

Expect that ILC has been working for 28 days straight...  

Welcome back, ILC!

Best regards,

-a-

I have a pretty good sense of who is doing what around here...

What type of work, many of us are doing...

Everyone brings value to MS.

Everyone comes here to get and supply value...

Anyone that has been away for a month... raises some concern... are they working that hard? Or are they ill?

 

We lose too many readers...  losing readers goes against the principles of what MS is here to support...

If it takes going back into your cave... that is how you need to handle things... I’m OK with that...

I know that isn’t the way you became successful.

As far as taking your bat and ball and going home... Mom would call you out as being selfish... 

Still not the way you became successful...

Hmmm...  MS saves one pilot at a time from accidentally getting killed by a plane.... important numbers... because all people are important...

Imagine saving 50K people.... that still takes focus... Nobody has room to accidentally bash someone else or their ideas... and make headway... on such an important goal...

Best regards,

-a-
 

[ilovecornfields]

18 minutes ago, carusoam said:

ILC,  I think you may have missed my prior post...

I have a pretty good sense of who is doing what around here...

What type of work, many of us are doing...

Everyone brings value to MS.

Everyone comes here to get and supply value...

Anyone that has been away for a month... raises some concern... are they working that hard? Or are they ill?

 

We lose too many readers...  losing readers goes against the principles of what MS is here to support...

If it takes going back into your cave... that is how you need to handle things... I’m OK with that...

I know that isn’t the way you became successful.

As far as taking your bat and ball and going home... Mom would call you out as being selfish... 

Still not the way you became successful...

Hmmm...  MS saves one pilot at a time from accidentally getting killed by a plane.... important numbers... because all people are important...

Imagine saving 50K people.... that still takes focus... Nobody has room to accidentally bash someone else or their ideas... and make headway... on such an important goal...

Best regards,

-a-
 

Hi Anthony,

I’m not taking my bat and going home, but I don’t have it in me to take care of patients all day then have a civil discussion with people who have no clue what they’re talking about second-guessing the world’s leading experts on theirs life’s work based on what they saw on the news or read on the internet. It seems we have some members who do have the capacity to do that so I will defer to them.

This is an exhausting time for healthcare providers and as I mentioned a month ago, it has  taken quite a toll on us. Fortunately, I’m married to a psychiatrist so I’ve been able to cope with things relatively well but I can’t describe the feeling of spending your life learning about something, doing it every day in challenging conditions and then having some random person on the internet who calls themselves “educated” suggest that they know more about it than you do and then vigorously try to defend their ignorance while repeating political taking points.

I respect the rights and freedoms that we have to question people and to express our opinions, but I also have no desire to subject myself to the above at this time. I love the forum, I love flying and I love talking about airplanes but the best decision for me right now is to stay away. It seems like we have some great people here that know what they’re talking about so I hope they can continue to do so without my interference. 

Hopefully at some point a rational national discussion will begin and both sides will acknowledge the risks and benefits of the choices we have to make and choices will be made that result in the least harm to the least number of people.

I look forward to returning in better times.

[bonal]

I too look forward to better times my fear which is shared by  millions of people is that we have allowed fear to dictate an outcome that we may never be able to recover from.  Please explain to me why there is such a huge difference  between California and Ny / NJ.  I'm so sorry I don't have your education and all I can do is form an opinion based on what all the experts are telling us that we have to do. What gets my goat is how condescending they sound when they speak about how inconvenient this is how they just really don't care one bit about this situation beyond the medical side of it. Every time it's oh just a few more weeks oh maybe the end of the month oh maybe the end of June. You are all doing so well following our direction just hang in there we are so proud of you. Please tell me that we can develop an effective vaccine and if we do perhaps we will cure the common cold and aids while we're at it.  Never in my life have I seen my constitutional rights taken away so easily. And what really scares me is how much I get a sense that the politicians would really like to keep it this way. Actions speak louder than words.

As a medical professional do you get offended when your patient might want to get a second opinion.

[larryb]

I have asked this question before and didn't get an answer, so I'll try again. For the experts here: In the next year or two, are we all expected to get the virus? Is the social distancing just to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed? 

[ilovecornfields]

2 hours ago, bonal said:

I too look forward to better times my fear which is shared by  millions of people is that we have allowed fear to dictate an outcome that we may never be able to recover from.  Please explain to me why there is such a huge difference  between California and Ny / NJ.  I'm so sorry I don't have your education and all I can do is form an opinion based on what all the experts are telling us that we have to do. What gets my goat is how condescending they sound when they speak about how inconvenient this is how they just really don't care one bit about this situation beyond the medical side of it. Every time it's oh just a few more weeks oh maybe the end of the month oh maybe the end of June. You are all doing so well following our direction just hang in there we are so proud of you. Please tell me that we can develop an effective vaccine and if we do perhaps we will cure the common cold and aids while we're at it.  Never in my life have I seen my constitutional rights taken away so easily. And what really scares me is how much I get a sense that the politicians would really like to keep it this way. Actions speak louder than words.

As a medical professional do you get offended when your patient might want to get a second opinion.

Great questions:

One of the key differences between CA and NY/NJ is when the social distancing started relative to the number of people with infections (as well as demographic differences as well). California started social distancing when there were very few cases in each county. Our county closed the schools with the FIRST confirmed case. As I’m sure you’ve seen with the “flatten the curve” models if you can intervene just a few days earlier you can easily shift the peak by orders of magnitude. This exponential vs. linear growth seems to be a big area of confusion since few people are used to thinking in terms of exponential growth. The interventions in California happened so early because the state epidemiologists understood that due to incubation period, limited testing and delay in testing by the time you have ONE confirmed case, you probably have between 100-500 people with the disease that have yet to be identified (recall that 20-40% will be asymptomatic). 
 

As far as when to change social distancing plans, the ones saying “I don’t know” are the ones being honest with you. No one alive today has seen an outbreak like this so anyone that gives you a firm date or promises is talking out of their anal sphincter. I get it that this has huge effects on people’s finances, mental health and eventually physical health. I saw a young lady with appendicitis a few days ago that must have apologized 10 times for coming to the ER and “bothering us.” I assured her that this was a very good reason to come to the ER and thanked for doing so. Unfortunately, many others are postponing or delaying medical care because of their fears and this is having effects on their life as well.

“As a medical professional do you get offended when your patient might want to get a second opinion.” - I assume this is a little tongue in cheek. In reality, I’m usually the one requesting a second opinion, not the patient. I usually say “my plan would be to do this, but let’s see what the (insert specialist) thinks.” I find this to be comforting to both myself and my patient. The key difference between what you’re describing and what I’m describing is that I get a second opinion FROM A PROFESSIONAL WHO KNOWS MORE THAN I DO ABOUT THAT FIELD. If I tell my patient “you’re in ventricular tachycardia you need to be cardioverted” and they tell me “well, my cousin Billy Bob was a janitor at a hospital once and he doesn’t think I need to be cardioverted so I’m going to refuse” then, yes, I do get offended.

I’m sorry to bring this up, but all opinions are not equally valid and just because two people have an opinion doesn’t mean that they both know what they are taking about. In both my personal and professional life I try to assess whether or not I am qualified to provide an opinion and if I’m not, I keep my mouth shut.

I sincerely hoped that answered your questions. Send me a PM or call me if you would like to discuss further.

Edited April 26, 2020 by ilovecornfields

[bonal]

So, I guess,we will just sit tight what choice do we have remember we voluntarily gave away our rights cause doctors orders.  Watch as the fed keeps printing unheard of amounts of money piling debt on top of debt which  will lead to unprecedented inflation that will carry over for generations. I'm more than happy to keep my mouth shut when I don't know what I'm talking about so long as the discussion is of no consequence to my life and our collective freedom.  The long term effects of this shut down could be far more dangerous to people's health in terms of emotional depression people taking their own lives the devastating effect on our healthcare system and I don't mean from overwhelming them with the pandemic but because people stop going for fear of the virus or like in your case not wanting to be a bother and when all those millions of people who lost thier jobs no longer have health care insurance or the company's that used to provide that insurance are no longer there what will be the long term effects on the health of our people be then. If the fatally rate ends up being a fraction of one percent instead of the two to five percent that we were originally told because the models were formed without any real idea of the  number of  people that actually had the virus not to mention the questionable methods for counting the number of people who tragically have passed with the virus but not necessarily because of it. Well there is a lot at stake a lot more than the virus itself.

And yes the second opinion was tongue and cheek 

Billy Bob

Sanitation department 

Edited April 26, 2020 by bonal